Love to see Goldy finally get the recognition he deserves, man has been having a silent HoF career, hopefully now people will realize what an amazing player he is.
Yes, absolutely! Also probably the most underrated aspect of Goldschmidt’s game. He’s a great baserunner and he knows how to steal bases (32 in 2016!). He was 3 runs above average on the bases this year alone, and worth about 3 wins for his career
@@TheDiamondBaseball He continued his streak of UN-caught SBs with 7 this year. He had 12 in 2021, and 1 in 2020. That is 20 consecutive steals without a CS! Impressive for a guy 6'3" 220 lbs! For comparison, Albert Pujols is a bit heavier at 6'3", 235, and can barely run or steal a base at all.
@@SuperSmashBrosKing33 I did see his stats. Go compare his stats with Scott Rolen. Very similar and Rolen hasn't gotten in yet. 1st ballot is for guys like Trout, Max, Verlander, etc. Goldy is a great player but he is a tier below that
@@johnnycatR58 Yeah, I think Votto is going to be the bellwether for both him and Freddie Freeman. If he can't get in first try, neither of the other two have a shot.
First base where defense matters the least Those big picks in high situations and sometimes/most times routine plays saves the game is so many ways Great video Amazing breakdown Thank you for the free game
I agree, we need to figure out a way to measure that value. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re developing some metric similar to framing runs for catchers over at statcast. Appreciate the kind words, thanks for the support!
I think war needs to reconsider ranking of first basemen defensive ability. Much like framing with catchers a first basemen can make a lot of extra outs from their ability to stretch or lack there of
I agree that the defensive adjustment is probably a bit too harsh on first basemen. It’s kind of crazy to me that their defensive adjustment is only a slight step up from a DH, who doesn’t even play defense at all.
@@TheDiamondBaseball The real value of a great first baseman is not how few errors he commits but how many of the other infielders' errors he prevents.
Yes, if you look at highest single season WAR leaders you have to go all the way down to Jimmie Foxx at #39 to find a 1st baseman. His stats that year were: 58 HR, 169 RBI, 151 R, .364 BA, and 207 OPS+. A center fielder 1 spot ahead of him had a line of 49, 141, 130, .304, and a 165 OPS+. Admittedly that was Willie Mays, maybe the best defensive outfielder of all time… but it would take a lot of amazing catches to make up for 9 HR, 28 RBI, 21 Runs, 60 BA points, and 42 points of OPS
Glad the algorithm put you on my feed. This is a really solid piece. Wish I'd found your channel back when my subscription would've made a visible change to the count
The algorithm is so weird man, over the last 2 weeks I've been suggested videos with fewer than 1000 views from baseball content creators. I look back at those videos now and they have tens of thousands views. For the people who don't think your stuff is being seen, keep making quality content and the algorithm will one day favor you for some reason but you gotta be there to take the opportunity.
Yeah, it's been a weird few years. The two most viewed videos on my channel both blew up about a year after they were published lol, and it's taken a lot of trial and error to figure out what I want to do and what people want to see.
Insightful video. I’d point out that when Bagwell was the unanimous MVP in 1994, his WAR was 8.2, about 30% higher than Bonds’s 2nd place of 6.2 among position players. That’s an astonishing feat and shows what a complete player he was. True, it was strike-shortened, but nowhere near as short as 2021. (For the record, Maddox actually led the NL in WAR in ‘94 with 8.7)
If it wasn't for that damned strike i think 1994 would've been, as a whole, one the greatest seasons ever. There were so many guys having absolutely ridiculous seasons in one way or another. Bagwell and Maddux were both having great years, there's Matt Williams on pace for 60+ HR, Griffey was only a few HR behind him, Gwynn was making a run at batting .400, Kirby Puckett was on pace for something like 160-170 RBI. I'm sure there's quite a few more guys who I'm forgetting. It would be nice if 1994 were immortalized in the minds of fans because of the milestones and records broken instead of for a strike and being one the biggest "what if" stories in baseball history.
My kids met goldy in az we love him and his commitment to the community. To be honest he probably should have 2-3 mvps by now but in az he was stuck on historically bad teams preventing him from winning
This was an absolutely phenomenal video! Very well thought out points, and I thoroughly enjoyed it. Something I had not thought about at all - you’ve earned my sub :)
When we signed him in 18, I thought he was a good addition (obviously) and he did indeed play "good". This past year though was a big wtf though. Man was an animal.
I’m really glad you guys got to see peak Goldy in St. Louis, he was always so fun to watch in Arizona. I was worried he was going to fall off due to age when he got to St. Louis, but this year was perfect in every way for him
@@TheDiamondBaseball Arenado hitting 4th behind him gives him that additional protection he probably did not have so much when in AZ. Guess who came in 3rd in the MVP votes: Arenado!
Really good video. I feel like the dWAR adjustment for first basemen can be really unfair sometimes. Yes, 1B isnt as hard to play, but the fact that Goldy has a big negative defensive value with the amazing (and noticeable) defense he provides at first just seems crazy
Yeah, it really seems weird to me that the defensive adjustment values a first baseman only about 5 runs more than a DH over a full season. I'm sure Fangraphs has their reasons, and the data people there have way more experience than I do, but I just find it a bit bizarre
@@TheDiamondBaseball “the data people have way more experience than I.” “I beg to differ sir.” To steal a line of Val Kilmer’s in “Tombstone.” I think the analytics has taken over too much of the game and far too often they are simply wrong. Eye test and players words hold more water with me. For example The RBI, belittled by analytics is the single most important offensive stat. Ask any pitcher when they have to throw their highest leverage pitches. Goldy is a complete ball player.
@@chrisweidner4768RBIs are conditional though. And that, for me, is why it can’t be the most important stat. I’d care more about their BA w/RISP than a player’s aggregate RBI total. Guys in the middle of the order have the most RBI chances-leadoff hitters and guys towards the bottom of the lineup don’t nearly have as many of those opportunities. You’ve seen teams move their best hitters to the top of the lineup so that they get the most ABs in order to maximize their chances of doing damage. Me personally, I think OPS or OPS+ is the most important statistic. It factors in a player’s plate discipline, which is important for overall evaluation of a hitter, and properly values their slugging. An RBI single is worth more than a solo HR, for example, when the goal is to win a game, but not for individual player evaluation. OPS+ incorporates the comparative nature of player evaluation by accounting for league averages
@@chrisweidner4768 OBP is for most players who don't SLG well THE offensive stat, 2nd is the OPS (OBP + SLG), with his OPS+ adjusted for the home ballpark for one-half his GP. RBIs are dependent on his teammates OBP (his lineup number, and protection behind him), and circumstances. Teammate on 1b, Player hits a Double, but the slower runner can't score, so he doesn't get an RBI. A faster runner scores, so he does get an RBI. Things like that add-up over 162 Games.
How first basemen are given so little value when calculating WAR makes no sense to me. Being able to cleanly, reliably field throws that are off target or in the dirt, along with fielding batted balls, seems to me like defense for a first base should be valued higher than corner outfield and at least on par with third base third base. It just seems like good defense from a position that is involved in so many plays per game has to be more valuable.
He had a phenomenal year, his final percentage statistics would have been higher, but he slumped badly in the last 3 weeks of September. 2022 .317/.404/.578 .981 OPS 180 OPS+ 7.8 WAR Sep. .245/.333/.383 .716 OPS 105 OPS+
Early in his career, absolutely. He was actually a little below average on defense this year according to the metrics, but when you have a 170 wRC+ that doesn't really matter as much lol
So a big reason Freeman and Abreu (two 1B) won it in 2020 was because of the shortened season. Wow! I had NO idea WAR took the length of season into account. I didn't really have a good idea of how it is calculated at all. Thank you for the education . I'm subbed and looking forward to checking out your other stuff. This is a great channel.
It's not that it accounts for length of season, it's more that it's a cumulative stat. Totally bogus made up numbers are coming for ease of math: So if 1st has a -0.1 war per game on average compared to SS, over 100 games that would be a 10 war deficit. So a 1st baseman would have to hit 10 war better than the best SS to beat him in war. If the season is only 50 games, that's only a 5 war deficit. Now of course the offensive numbers are also cumulative so you could say that while the shortened season reduces the defensive deficit, it also reduces the time the better offensive 1st baseman has to make up for that deficit, leading to the whole thing being a push that still favors a SS. The problem seems to be that the defensive numbers are skewed in favor of the SS and other defensive players by way too wide a margin so it's not a push. So basically the best chance a 1st baseman has to win an MVP is in a one game season. Every additional game slightly decreases his chances.
Both offensive and defensive war scale with the number of games. If a short season favors offensive war leaders, it would be because offensive war variance is greater, so the extreme values are relatively enhanced for offensive vs defensive war.
Yes, this is 100% correct (and also how Abreu turned two great months into an MVP award). Any player is capable of generating a ton of WAR by having a Linsanity run on offense, but it's practically impossible to rack up defensive value in the same way.
I know everyone’s gonna hate me on this. But THIS discussion is exactly why I haven’t watched baseball in ab 7-8 years. I don’t want to have to use computer programs to tout my fave players Baseball has become sooooo deep stat driven that folks like me have just checked out. No biggie, you keep doing you, just my thought
Let’s go Paul!!! Showing that your prime is whenever the hell you say it is;) also, his windup is different but doesn’t his actual swing look a lot like Trout? Now if he could just find his postseason footing.
Even as one of Goldy’s biggest fans, I’m genuinely shocked that he was able to pull this off at 35. What an incredible season from him top to bottom. Also, he has a .909 OPS and 8 HR in a little over 100 career postseason ABs, so I would say that this year is probably just a fluke 👍🏼
I'm working on an article about Fred McGriff right now and comparing his JAWS to other 1B and when I got to Keith Hernandez and saw he out WARd McGriff, my mind said, "wow can we just throw out defense here?" 90% of me agrees with WAR penalizing 1B because of defense, but the other 10% loves when guys like Freddie and Goldschmidt win
I mean, they both should probably be in the HOF, but it will be a lot harder now that WAR is a huge part of the Hall of Fame debate now too. That’s why Goldy and Votto are treated like edge cases and “sneaky” candidates instead of what they are, which is future Hall of Famers
@@TheDiamondBaseball it really baffles me that a statistic based largely off of the statistics of average players at one's position in a given year in theory would be considered in players' HOF cases. As if one's consistent production in longevity and contributions to a team's success isn't enough. I can almost kinda-sorta get it in the context of the MVP as a comparison of the worth of players, but value =/= subjective value in comparison to yearly averages.
@@antonioreconquistador What's great about metrics like WAR and other normalized stats like wRC+ is that they allow us to put these performances in the proper context of the era they played in. When it comes to the Hall of Fame Voting, I think the two key questions are "How good was this player compared to his peers" and "How does this performance stack up compared with other Hall of Famers." With metrics like WAR, we can not only see just how much better they were compared to players of their own time, but we can also compare performances across eras. Plus, WAR is currently the best tool we have for measuring a player's total contributions, so it absolutely makes sense that it would be a factor in someone's hall of fame case, especially for players who might otherwise get overlooked by traditional stats
The only thing that prevented Vlady from winning MVP was a truly generational player having a truly generational season, the likes of which we will never see again, neither from Ohtani or anyone else. Vlady will win at least won MVP at 1B in his career, and Ohtani might even win another one as well. We might not get another season like 2021, but both of these guys still have so much incredible baseball yet to give and I’m excited to watch it happen.
I didn't understand the explanation of how first base creates a negative defensive WAR value. That, on the face of it, is ridiculous. I understand why it would reduce the number of opportunities to gain WAR points, but I don't see how the position can generate negative points. It makes sense that first basemen generally would have lower defensive WAR scores. After all, infielders that lose range and speed move to the corners on the way to DH. Cal Ripken (who changed the way baseball valued offensive production in shortstops) moved to 3rd when he slowed down, and Miggie was moved from 3rd to 1st when he slowed down. So they TEND to be older and less athletic than other position players. Out of curiosity, is there a stat that tracks the prowess peculiar to first basemen in saving infield throwing errors? That should be taken into consideration as part of their defensive WAR value. Some can really 'pick it' and some can't, and that usually means the difference between a putout and a batter reaching second, often with an RBI.
These are two great questions. The idea behind the defensive adjustment is that it helps balance out traditionally offense-first positions like first base and defense-first positions like catcher or shortstop. Without it, we would have the opposite situation: excellent defenders at skill positions having a hard time getting recognized because first basemen dominate the offensive metrics. That being said, the ideal adjustment is up for discussion, and I personally think the first base penalty is a bit harsh - particularly for fWAR. To answer your second question, there isn't one yet to my knowledge. However, I feel the next logical step forward is a metric similar to framing runs for catchers, one that takes into account how good a first baseman is at converting plays into outs. I'm actually looking into making something myself, but it's hard to find good data on infield throws.
I still can’t statistically wrap my head around how Cabrera could have a triple crown and not even come close in comparison to Mike Trout overall. Sure Trout steals bases and was the best defensive CF but 3 wins better?
Trout was worth about a win and a half on the basepaths alone (14.3 runs!) and Cabrera cost his team about a win (-7.5 runs). 3B and CF have the same defensive adjustment, but Trout was 8 runs better than average and Cabrera was 2 runs worse than average. Both produced just as much at the plate (167 wRC+), so defense and baserunning really were the difference
It helps when you spend most of the season leading in the triple crown stats. Most of the season wasnt "can goldschmidt win the mvp?" It was "can he keep going and win the triple crown?". Instead of discussing the MVP race it was all about him and a potential triple crown, which helped a LOT even if he didnt hold on. Good for him tho he deserves it
Yeah, the most important part of MVP politics is controlling the narrative. With first baseman, you gotta have a monster first half to get in the convo and then at least maintain that pace to give yourself a chance. We saw the same with Vlad last year, but we all knew he had no chance to actually win it. So happy Goldy had the opportunity to finally finish the job this year
Look at war leaders today. Freddie freeman made his first error two days ago and his war went down 0.3 war. That is absolutely crazy Ohtani 9 war Ha-Seong Kim 5.9 war Ronald Acuna Jr. 5.8 war Wander Franco 5.6 war Mookie Betts 5.5 war Freddie Freeman 5.4 war
Offense>defense to define a player, u can go a whole game without a ball being hit at u, but everyone gets to hit at least 3 times. Also no team game plans around someone’s defensive ability, but they do game plan around someone’s offensive abilities, food for thought.
Oh I absolutely agree, the problem is that it’s hard to be 2+ wins better on offense than another MVP caliber player in terms of WAR, and that is the issue for first basemen. If Goldy doesn’t have a 170 wRC+, he probably finishes third in voting
These are always super well done and really informative for both the average and seasoned MLB fan. Thanks for making these and keep up the amazing work!!
In my openion even war is no longer an accurate metrix to evaluate the total value of the player because it significantly negatively affects the value a non offensive player brings to the table. The best example of this is Ohtani. overall his hitting and pitching war was higher than Judge's but they had to deduct WAR for him not playing defense. At a glance you could say fair enough he didn't make any defensive contributions therefore he shouldn't be credited. But when you look at it more in-depth Ohtani doing pitching and hitting opens up full roster position for another utility player, having an extra player to use in your rotation or to bring off the pench or to rotate different days to give your other players a day to recover significantly helps with player fatigue and preventing injury, which in the long term means you have more of your players fresh and ready to play at their best which contributes to more wins. I think there should be major adjustments to WAR to be able to accuratly measure the true value of a two way player.
Great video, as a Cardinals fan and a fan of Goldy from his days as a D-Back, I’m so happy he won the MVP. It’s awesome to watch him play everyday, the quiet superstar putting his head down and going to work.
It’s kind of crazy how no one really talks about him much anymore, like I don’t hear him get brought up a whole lot compared to other greats from that era
Amazing video, also couldn't be happier Goldy took home the MVP, well deserved, and insane considering I think he should have won in 2013 when he got second which was 9 years ago, his IQ and insane play have let him basically have 2 primes. My favorite player.
Honestly I’m happy for both of them. Freddie deserves one, and Jose winning is a great feel-good story and great recognition after a relatively underrated career
There is no voter bias against first basemen; if one of them has a good enough season he will win MVP. We just happen to be going through a rather weak period for top level first sackers. Since 2010, the only first basemen who have even had close to 'MVP type' of seasons have been Votto, Cabrera, Goldschmidt, and Freeman. Votto finished in the top 3 in 2015, 2016, and 2017 (you can't really argue against the guys who actually won), Miggy won in 2012 and 2013, and Goldy/Freeman also won one apiece in their respective career years. They also finished highly in several other years, appropriate to their level of hitting. I see nothing unusual or different in how the voters see first basemen the past decade or so.
A question about Pujols: wasn’t he originally an outfielder, with a bat the team didn’t want to pull from the lineup, placed at first because of a (shoulder?) injury so he wouldn’t have to make long throws? I’m not trolling; I’m asking with good intent. For what it’s worth I think Pujols shined at 1B, and the teamwork between him and Molina lifted him up a couple notches. Mostly I’m wondering if I’m remembering things right, but I’m also wondering if Pujols wasn’t a 1B-man do you think he would be what he e fed up as?
Your explanation regarding the shortened 2020 season is flawed/doesn’t make sense. It might be true that the defensive adjustment is reduced because of the shorter season, but the “per game” defensive adjustment remains the same in a shortened season as it is in a 162-game season.
Yes, but the smaller total adjustment makes it so that great offensive performances are recognized more/not as discounted compared to a full season. There is also greater offensive variance in a shortened season, meaning that it’s easier to have a monster two months at the plate than to keep that pace over a full season. Offensive production matters much more in terms of WAR in a 60-game season
Huge Pirates fan here and not to take anything away from what Andrew McCutchen did in 2013, but Goldy should have won it there, he was just on an absolute dog water of Dbacks team. Glad he got this for the resume.
Big fan of his but what a shame that both he and Arenado couldn't step up when it mattered the most. Congrats on winning the MVP anyway. Funny thing is Judge is also in the same scenario.
You know what they say, “it’s a regular-season award.” It is a shame though because Goldy has been great in the playoffs prior to this (.909 OPS and 8 HR in 102 PA)
Goldy is very deserving... though the part that hacks me off.. too many people feel the MVP should be the BEST PLAYER... which is not the case... forget war and other sabremetric tomfoolery... lets look at this years AL MVP.. Ohtani vs Judge... Both had great years... best overall player... it's hard to argue against a top pitcher who is also a top hitter.. we've not seen that since the days of the Babe... But that V is who is most valuable to his team? Anotherwards.. if that player is out of the lineup.. how much worse is his team... Well, Sorry to say.. WITH Ohtani.. the Angels were 73-89.. so without him.. well they go from bad to worse.. big deal...Judge.. they won their division and were the 2 seed in the AL playoffs.. you take Judge away.. there is a good chance that team misses the playoffs... War is a nice stat.. but the award is not "Who is the best player"... more... "Who made the biggest difference for their team?".. Using war for that.. shows people don't know the award their giving out. Oh, I'm still a bit old school that the MVP should be from a playoff team unless someone on a non-contender did something truely great.. and no clear cut winner from the playoff teams.. because frankly, if you played on a non-playoff team in 2022.. you're team is pretty bad.. that was not the case years ago when only divisional winners went or even back to the only playoffs being the world series... but today... only 2 teams in both leagues had a .500 or better record and missed.. (and 2 of those 4 were right at .500)... so I can't give that award to anyone not on the playoff team.. because if you aren't.. then even the greatest season would not have really added that much real marketable value.. WAR is a nice number.. but it's not really a marketable value unless you're a free agent.. to fans... we don't give a rats...
Appreciate the kind words! Which part of the audio were you having trouble with? I was testing out a new audio plugin for this video and I'm still getting it dialed in, so I'd appreciate the feedback!
The only thing I kinda disagree with is the idea of team success being a big influence on the MVP voting. It's nowhere near as big an issue as in the past. If that was the case, Alex Bregman would have won AL MVP in 2019. The last time it might have been the case would be Josh Donaldson in 2015 winning over Trout but even then I think there are other reasons for why that happened. And though WAR is a big factor in the MVP debate, being on top doesn't always translate to being the MVP, as Bryce Harper winning over Soto proved in 2021. Harper was only 9th in the NL in WAR, behind Soto but also Austin Riley and Tyler O'Neill
It was comical with how many padres fans thought machado was going to win He was light years away from Goldschmidt’s production and they couldn’t accept it at all lol
Yes, you’re right. But they would have to be an otherworldly level of hitter. The last two times a first baseman led his league in WAR, it was Peak Albert Pujols and Peak Joey Votto. Goldy had a 170 wRC+ this year - which led the NL by 20 points - and he still finished third. It’s tough sledding
WAR is a simple-minded concept disguised as science, especially when it comes to the Cy Young Award. In 2012, by winning the Triple Crown sand leading his team to the World Series, Cabrera absolutely deserved the MVP. In the NL, Buster Posey also deserved his MVP, because he had such a big impact on the Giants pitching staff.
I definitely don't disagree with you about 2012. With Cabrera, the historical significance of his achievement and the fact that he was the story of that season made him more than worthy of winning, and Posey was tied with Trout at the top of the fWAR leaderboards, dominating in all aspects of the game. That being said, I think you misunderstand WAR. What makes it great is that even though it is the most advanced tool we have developed to measure player performance and was the result of years of development and data science, the concept behind it is simple enough for everyone to understand, and both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are very transparent about what exactly goes into it. Of course, it should never be the only thing we look at when we discuss a player's value, but it is a great way to start the conversation.
@@TheDiamondBaseball, I’ve been an anti-WAR activist for a long time, though admittedly, can’t discern the differences between the various iterations. It’s perfectly fine for entertainment purposes and I suppose contract negotiations. If I were a GM, I WOULD consider some of the other advanced metrics when drafting, trading, and signing free agents. If I were a baseball writer, I would disregard WAR entirely. In fact, BBWAA should advise its voters not use it, as it diminishes the value of their input. Here’s the thing: Players, have a singular, present tense mission, that gets reset everyday. Win with the teammates they’re playing with, in the ballpark they’re playing in. For pitchers, it’s to maintain the lead or tie they had in the 1st inning, get as many outs as possible. WAR is an embarrassing stat for them. Bill James even said as much to one of his protégés I was debating with about the travesty of deGrom’s CYA’s. OTOH if fWAR has Posey ranked first in 2012, then it’s been tweaked for the better. I remember some commentators complaining about Braun and McCutchen getting snubbed. Last season, whoever had Soto first on their MVP ballots was just being ridiculous.
First base defense being less valuable doesn’t make sense. Go back and look at the cardinals infield performance with Jose Martinez at first and then look at the dramatic turnaround in 2019 with Goldy at first.
@@TheDiamondBaseball something like a catch difficulty. Think of the highlight reel play between Arenado and Goldy in Arizona. Great play by Arenado no doubt, but it was an extremely difficult ball to catch for Goldy.
@@jon-eriksuermann9844 I imagine this could be something that could be measured by Statcast/Hawkeye, we already have models that track the throws across the infield, measure the speed, and also calculate catch probabilities on fly balls, so a "catch difficulty" factor for first basemen doesn't seem like a reach.
i used to be a massive subscriber to WAR, and i still use it to an extent, but i’ve changed my tune a bit over the last couple of years. i feel like the positional valuations/devaluations on both offense and defense are a bit archaic. it penalizes 1B like we’re still in an age where there are 10 elite sluggers at 1st with only tulo and reyes doing good at the shortstop position. not to mention they have no idea how to evaluate ohtani, or a first baseman’s defensive impact saving errors and runs via picks. overall it does a pretty damn good job at telling you who the good players are, but it’s flawed as a be all end all when comparing valuable players. i’m sorry, but i’m not convinced that as of july 5 2023, nico hoerner is an equal player to matt olson. great and pretty thought enduring video 😂
I think the position adjustments in WAR are much too big. A position player's WAR is the sum of two terms, offensive WAR (oWAR), which measures the player's offensive contribution and includes hitting and baserunning, and defensive WAR (dWAR), which includes estimates of defensive contribution. Since some position are more difficult to play than others, a correction is applied to both oWAR and dWAR. The justification usually given for the adjustment is that since some positions are more difficult to play, it's harder to find players who can both play the position well and hit well. (I don't understand why the position adjustment is applied to dWAR. Application of position adjustment to dWAR also makes it necessary to subtract the position adjustment when calculating total WAR, otherwise it would be counted twice.) Since each team has to have someone playing each position and they are trying to win as many games as possible, I would expect the average corrected WAR would be about the same for all positions. Since I was unable to find the league average WAR by position, I had to use a surrogate. I estimated uncorrected oWAR using OPS (average OPS by position is available on fangraphs). I converted OPS to runs created using the formula Runs created = 85*OPS which I found on baseballjudgments.tripod.com/id88.html. I then coverted runs created to WINS using the formula WINS=Runs Created / 10 = 8.5*OPS which I found at www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_runs_to_wins.shtml. I also found the WAR position adjustment at www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml If the position adjustment is done correctly, I would expect that the sum of offensive WINS and the position adjustment should be about the same for all positions. Here are my results (I subtracted 5.8 from the WINS+position adjustment so that the average discrepancy is 0): Position League OPS WINS WAR position adjustment Discrepancy (WINS + position adjustment-5.8) DH .732 6.2 -1.5 -1.1 C .663 5.6 0.9 0.7 1B .730 6.2 -0.95 -0.5 2B .687 5.8 0.3 0.3 SS .685 5.8 0.7 0.7 3B .713 6.1 0.2 0.5 LF .705 6.0 -0.7 -0.5 CF .693 5.9 +0.25 0.3 RF .712 6.0 -0.7 -0.5 It's clear from this table that the position adjustments grossly over correct for the scarcity of good hitters at the "skill" positions. The difference in offensive production between the position with the best hitters (DH) and the worst hitters (Catcher) on average is only about 0.6 wins, while the difference in correction is 2.4 wins, about 4x as large. DHs and 1B are particularly penalized by this correction.
The MVP award is not meant for first baseman or designated hitters. You'd have to have a god like season at the plate to win MVP as a designated hitter. Even David Ortiz in all his slugging Glory could never quite do it.
I get the argument for DH not winning MVP, but prior to 2010 first basemen were winning the award like a quarter of the time, so saying the award isn’t meant for them is kind of confusing. Realistically, all positions should be able to win it, and all have except for DH
No metric is perfect, but pointing out a minor thing that I think WAR gets wrong does not mean that it’s a “crap stat.” It is still by far the best tool we currently have to measure a player’s total value, and I’m sure there will be adjustments later on that will take into account things like how well a first baseman picks throws. Just because it’s not perfect in every way (and again, no single metric ever is) does not mean that it isn’t incredibly useful or that we can learn a lot from it
@@TheDiamondBaseball I respectfully disagree ever since it went mainstream people treat it like the end all be all stat. I really enjoyed the video btw, but people seem to ignore that WAR comes from one of 3 different sources and they don't agree on how it's calculated. I don't ever remember asking for a statistical way to determine someone's value because it completely ignores intangibles like leadership, Intellect, and toughness. That being said I don't run a MLB team and don't need quantifiable reasons to pay someone 30 million a year. Thank you for responding and I look forward to the next video.
@@jasonvaught2274 Yeah, completely agree that some people either take it too seriously or don't put it in its proper context. It should be just a baseline measurement of value and a comparison tool - the start of the discussion and not the end. Anyway, thank you for the respectful and kind response, you wouldn't believe how angry and venomous some people get on here, so I appreciate the kind words
I mean, it makes sense to use it in the MVP discussions, as it is the best metric we currently have to directly compare the total value of players at different positions, but I just think we have to add more context to the discussion and take other factors and metrics into consideration when we do.
@@TheDiamondBaseball in fairness Bum is making about 40 mil less than Goldy, and about 80 mil more than he deserves. That said I’ve spoken with a certain member of the media who has a well known inside source that says that if Goldy had been offered the same extension he got in StL then he would’ve stayed. It’s all a bit of “inside baseball”, but it’s also in the past. Nothing to be done about it now other than hope that maybe he comes back to the Valley to finish up his career. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
So with Guerrero he’s 24 yrs old and his team makes the playoffs yet Ohtani’s Angels do not and he wins MVP, he’s a beast as is Trout but if they don’t make playoffs how is it that they are MVP? You can win 15 games and hit 50 HRs and drive in 100 RBI’s but if your team doesn’t make the playoffs then you’re not the MVP. You’re #1 in Offence and maybe you should win the Cy Young but MVP should be held to different standards but that is my opinion only.
Just because the Angels are a dogshit organization that can't build around the two greatest players of our generation in their prime doesn't mean Trout and Ohtani aren't worthy of winning MVP for their superhuman efforts. This isn't basketball, one player can't win you a World Series. MVP is an individual award for the best individual player, and it should be treated as such.
@@TheDiamondBaseball that’s the most outstanding player not the most valuable player I have to agree with the guy who commented this they should have a different award in football if ur team sucks ur not winning the mvp not saying ohtani shouldn’t have won I just think the most valuable player should be to a winning player while ohtani would be most outstanding player if ohtani had the same numbers as judge in the offence while his team record stayed the same while the Yankees record stayed the same judge is the most valuable player it doesn’t make sense that ohtani would be
I remember seeing Miguel Cabrera almost losing the MVP but the entire time I was like are you seriously going to deny a triple crown winner the award. Then this year people were doing the same to Judge with Ohtani.
I think we tend to forget that in both cases, the vote was pretty decisive. Cabrera got 22 of 28 first place votes and Judge got all but 2. Would Trout and Ohtani both be deserving winners? Yeah, it would be easy to make an argument for them being the best players in the league. But ultimately, the importance that Cabrera's and Judge's seasons had on the history of the game meant that there really wasn't a chance they were going to lose.
He started 28 games at first base that year, and he only played a complete game there 13 times. He can play first base, but he is an outfielder, not a first baseman.
I didn't even notice this when I was editing, that genuinely made me laugh out loud. God bless the guy who had to do that in the mocap suit for it to be in the game lmao
WAR is fascinating because Ohtani 100% deserved the MVP. While, yes Judge had a season that we haven't seen in 20+ years, Ohtani is doing things we've never seen. Period. Judge put up a crazy WAR of 10.6 But Ohtani? Only 1 behind, 9.6. And that's not factoring in his pitching in which he went 15-9. If we slap on those 15 wins Ohtani is worth almost 25 WAR. TWENTY FIVE. Obviously all 15 of those aren't guaranteed losses by a replacement pitcher, but even if it went down to 10 wins, that's still a 20 WAR season. Like you said, a lot of it is politics and MVP voters, but Ohtani, whether you like it or not, should have won MVP.
If not for Judges magical season, yes, Ohtani is MVP. You're failing to recognize the fact Judge saved the Yankees from a complete collapse and was a huge reason they even made the playoffs. And despite Ohtani's brilliance, the Angel's were like 30 games out and nowhere near contention at any point. WAR is not the be and end all. If the Angel's had made a run for the playoffs, the race would have been a lot closer.
Good hitting is timeless. If the next Mike Trout, Ted Williams or Barry Bonds played first base we wouldn't think this way. The one of my generation did actually, and his name was Albert Pujols. Analytics and forward looking metrics like WAR diminish first basemen because you have to be an Albert Pujols level hitter with power for your hitting to stand out against your competition if you don't add value in the field. People take WAR too literally. If you're within like 2 WAR of another guy you're roughly on the same level once you take regression to the mean into account. The best modern player explains his true 5 tool value through WAR so it makes sense that people are looking for the next Mike Trout when handing out awards. But that isn't what greatness looks like. The next generational talent will be so great that we have to come up with new statistics to measure him. Trout is also a .300/.400/.500 career hitter with 350 career HR. Great players have always fit the traditional stats as well and always will. Analytics people have gone so far out trying to find the next Mike Trout that they can't appreciate greatness as its observed in the current moment. Think about it this way. What's more exciting, a flash in the pan .400 hitter or a 15 WAR season with a high OBP approach, stolen base approach, gold glove and the guy hits .250? Yeah maybe the .250 high tools guy will do better next year, but no one has hit .400 in almost 80 years.
Yeah, I don't disagree with any of your points. One thing I'd particularly like to see implemented (as some others in the comments have also mentioned) is something similar to framing runs for catchers, but for first basemen receiving throws to first base. That and/or an adjustment to the positional adjustments.
@@TheDiamondBaseball Yeah I think people really underestimate the values of gold glove picks and good defense at first base. Anyone who's played will tell you a glove first 1st baseman is a blessing on defense. Pujols was also a gold glover in his 20s and had a 2 dWAR season at first as strange as it feels saying that now. He was a lot more well rounded in his prime than people remember him as today. Maybe you don't cover the same ground as a center fielder or shortstop but you touch the ball the most of any non-battery member in the field. There has to be more inherent value in that than the positional adjustments currently account for.
". . . first base, the position where defense matters the least . . ." Wait, that's not true! Defense matters more at first base than any other infield position! The first baseman is involved in the vast majority of the groundball outs where the putout is at first, either as the person who fields the ball or the person who gets the putout, or both!The first baseman has to catch the throws from the other infielders. A good defensive first baseman (like Goldschmidt) turns throws that would have been throwing errors from the other infielders into outs. A bad defensive first baseman turns throws that would have been outs into errors. A good defensive first baseman makes all the other infielders better, a bad defensive first baseman makes all the other infielders worse. How could any sane person think defense matters least at first base?
I guess I should’ve said “matters the least in terms of the defensive adjustment” to be more specific, because that was what I meant. Personally, I agree with you.
2 things with Vlad: 1) He plays in the same league as peak Shohei Ohtani and peak Aaron Judge 2) Hitting is really his only tool. He’s below average on the bases and in the field. It’s hard to overcome that when it comes to putting up the WAR necessary to compete for MVP. He may very well do it one day, but honestly I highly doubt it. It would take a lot of things to go right for him all at once
I disagree personally, I think people have began to realize especially with this years MVP vote, war is awesome but it’s not everything and you need to take it with a grain of salt and the voters showed that
I mean, the three NL finalists this year all finished within .3 wins of each other, essentially tied at the top of the league, so of course other factors were taken into account. But also, no MVP voter bases their vote on WAR alone, and if they do, they probably shouldn't have a vote. WAR is supposed to be the beginning of the conversation, not the end of it.
WAR is a joke of a stat because it's based off of position and isn't very accurate either. Also it depends on how trash your team is. Just because you are more valuable to your team because you maybe the ONLY superstar on your team doesn't mean you deserve to win MVP.
I have always considered the WAR calculation for 1st Base defense to be flawed for one primary reason...almost EVERY infield play includes the 1st Baseman. This is not true for any other player. A great SS with a bad 1st Baseman is so obvious. This same problem also exists for catcher. WAR and other "advanced" metrics are really not "advanced" at all. The biases present in the metrics design (all created by those have never played an inning of high level baseball) means that the output is biased. As a 3rd baseman in college, I can tell you that half of you value as an infielder is totally dependent on the 1st Base play. Good players there made us look better by pulling throws out of the dirt or off the bag into an out. It is a very rare infielder who makes all of their throws great. So why the hate for 1B? Again, non players designating "value" based on stupid ideas of where outs are created on the infield. No SS or 3B is creating outs by themselves on most infield plays. It is always both the fielder AND the 1B. But, I have given up on advanced metrics ever truly capturing this stuff because those who create them never played at a high level themselves. Baseball to the stat head is a form of dungeons and dragons.
A first baseman's receiving ability is definitely underrated, and I think that does need to be addressed. We just haven't found a good enough way to measure that exact value yet. Couple things though: 1) Catcher doesn't have the same problem. Framing runs have been included in WAR totals for years now and it has really highlighted the differences between bad receivers and good ones. 2) All metrics have limits and none are perfect, but some are more useful than others. Metrics like WAR and wRC+ have their issues, but they are still by far the most effective tools we currently have to measure a player's total value. 3) If you're going to complain about statsticians making these metrics, we absolutely invite you to try making a better version yourself. Worst case scenario, you get a newfound appreciation for just how difficult it truly is to measure a player's value.
Just because a first baseman is involved in every infield play doesn’t make his defensive contribution valuable. Catching a ball while touching a base is not all that hard for major leaguers. MLB teams consistently move their old, slow, great hitters to 1B. In Little League, you need a good first baseman; in MLB, it’s often where you put people who can’t play anywhere else.
He certainly has the offensive capability, but unfortunately the only way I ever see him having a chance of winning it is if Judge or Ohtani both get hurt or leave the AL at some point during his prime.
Are you saying that a lot of balls in play are hit to them? Because in that case, shortstop gets the most hit to them by a pretty good margin. First base probably gets the least given current batting trends
@@boss_eltoro8085 In that case I can kind of see where he's coming from, but unless the other infielders are terrible at throwing the ball, how well they receive the throw doesn't move the needle much
@@TheDiamondBaseball or the first basemen could be completely terrible at receiving😂 not arguing for any side but it could go either way lol. I do agree that hitting is a pivotable point for first basemen as their position on the field is kinda eh attractive wise.
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How was there a 12 year gap for 1B MVPs when Freddie Freeman woun NL MVP in 2020🤔🤔🤔
Love to see Goldy finally get the recognition he deserves, man has been having a silent HoF career, hopefully now people will realize what an amazing player he is.
I nearly cried seeing him finally win his MVP. As a life-long Arizona fan, it was so cathartic seeing him finally get the recognition he deserved
@@TheDiamondBaseball We went to the same high school so I've always followed his career pretty close, awesome to see him finally get the recognition.
As a first basemen, he will need some more productive seasons to make it into the HoF.
How has he had a silent career exactly? He's ones if the biggest players in baseball... 🤦♂️
Baserunning is the most underrated tool in baseball. There’s so much that goes into being a good base runner way more than just being fast
Yes, absolutely! Also probably the most underrated aspect of Goldschmidt’s game. He’s a great baserunner and he knows how to steal bases (32 in 2016!). He was 3 runs above average on the bases this year alone, and worth about 3 wins for his career
@@TheDiamondBaseball He continued his streak of UN-caught SBs with 7 this year. He had 12 in 2021, and 1 in 2020. That is 20 consecutive steals without a CS! Impressive for a guy 6'3" 220 lbs! For comparison, Albert Pujols is a bit heavier at 6'3", 235, and can barely run or steal a base at all.
So happy for Goldy!!! Winning MVP was probably the last thing he needed to make his hall of fame case and I'm so happy he finally got one
❤️❤️❤️
His numbers are close to Scott Rolen so if Goldy makes it, it won't be 1st ballot
@@johnnycatR58idk how anyone sees goldy’s stats and says that’s not first ballot
@@SuperSmashBrosKing33 I did see his stats. Go compare his stats with Scott Rolen. Very similar and Rolen hasn't gotten in yet. 1st ballot is for guys like Trout, Max, Verlander, etc. Goldy is a great player but he is a tier below that
@@johnnycatR58 Yeah, I think Votto is going to be the bellwether for both him and Freddie Freeman. If he can't get in first try, neither of the other two have a shot.
First base where defense matters the least
Those big picks in high situations and sometimes/most times routine plays saves the game is so many ways
Great video
Amazing breakdown
Thank you for the free game
I agree, we need to figure out a way to measure that value. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re developing some metric similar to framing runs for catchers over at statcast. Appreciate the kind words, thanks for the support!
I think war needs to reconsider ranking of first basemen defensive ability. Much like framing with catchers a first basemen can make a lot of extra outs from their ability to stretch or lack there of
I agree that the defensive adjustment is probably a bit too harsh on first basemen. It’s kind of crazy to me that their defensive adjustment is only a slight step up from a DH, who doesn’t even play defense at all.
@@TheDiamondBaseball The real value of a great first baseman is not how few errors he commits but how many of the other infielders' errors he prevents.
@@JayTemple Agreed, and I don't think this aspect is properly reflected by WAR. Framing is actually a pretty good comparison imo
Yes, if you look at highest single season WAR leaders you have to go all the way down to Jimmie Foxx at #39 to find a 1st baseman. His stats that year were: 58 HR, 169 RBI, 151 R, .364 BA, and 207 OPS+. A center fielder 1 spot ahead of him had a line of 49, 141, 130, .304, and a 165 OPS+. Admittedly that was Willie Mays, maybe the best defensive outfielder of all time… but it would take a lot of amazing catches to make up for 9 HR, 28 RBI, 21 Runs, 60 BA points, and 42 points of OPS
Damn, just the difference between the two is practically a replacement player.
Wow, I didn’t even think to look into this when researching the video, that is a staggering difference
Actually that’s why to me war is a flawed stat , it still drives me crazy people that say trout should have won of Cabrera in 12
Glad the algorithm put you on my feed. This is a really solid piece. Wish I'd found your channel back when my subscription would've made a visible change to the count
The algorithm is so weird man, over the last 2 weeks I've been suggested videos with fewer than 1000 views from baseball content creators. I look back at those videos now and they have tens of thousands views. For the people who don't think your stuff is being seen, keep making quality content and the algorithm will one day favor you for some reason but you gotta be there to take the opportunity.
Yeah, it's been a weird few years. The two most viewed videos on my channel both blew up about a year after they were published lol, and it's taken a lot of trial and error to figure out what I want to do and what people want to see.
For such a good channel I'm surprised you only have 7.64k subscribers. Keep up the good work!! I love your videos!!
Insightful video. I’d point out that when Bagwell was the unanimous MVP in 1994, his WAR was 8.2, about 30% higher than Bonds’s 2nd place of 6.2 among position players. That’s an astonishing feat and shows what a complete player he was. True, it was strike-shortened, but nowhere near as short as 2021.
(For the record, Maddox actually led the NL in WAR in ‘94 with 8.7)
If it wasn't for that damned strike i think 1994 would've been, as a whole, one the greatest seasons ever. There were so many guys having absolutely ridiculous seasons in one way or another. Bagwell and Maddux were both having great years, there's Matt Williams on pace for 60+ HR, Griffey was only a few HR behind him, Gwynn was making a run at batting
.400, Kirby Puckett was on pace for something like 160-170 RBI. I'm sure there's quite a few more guys who I'm forgetting. It would be nice if 1994 were immortalized in the minds of fans because of the milestones and records broken instead of for a strike and being one the biggest "what if" stories in baseball history.
My kids met goldy in az we love him and his commitment to the community. To be honest he probably should have 2-3 mvps by now but in az he was stuck on historically bad teams preventing him from winning
This was an absolutely phenomenal video! Very well thought out points, and I thoroughly enjoyed it. Something I had not thought about at all - you’ve earned my sub :)
Thank you! These are the comments you hope to see when you put out a video, I appreciate the kind words and support!
Nobody will ever win the MVP again.
The award had a good run
RIP the MVP
@@WhatHappenedtoBaseball RIP in pieces, hate to see it
I like your channel. Nice work. You’ve got a new fan and a new subscriber.
When we signed him in 18, I thought he was a good addition (obviously) and he did indeed play "good". This past year though was a big wtf though. Man was an animal.
I’m really glad you guys got to see peak Goldy in St. Louis, he was always so fun to watch in Arizona. I was worried he was going to fall off due to age when he got to St. Louis, but this year was perfect in every way for him
@@TheDiamondBaseball Arenado hitting 4th behind him gives him that additional protection he probably did not have so much when in AZ. Guess who came in 3rd in the MVP votes: Arenado!
Really good video. I feel like the dWAR adjustment for first basemen can be really unfair sometimes. Yes, 1B isnt as hard to play, but the fact that Goldy has a big negative defensive value with the amazing (and noticeable) defense he provides at first just seems crazy
Yeah, it really seems weird to me that the defensive adjustment values a first baseman only about 5 runs more than a DH over a full season. I'm sure Fangraphs has their reasons, and the data people there have way more experience than I do, but I just find it a bit bizarre
@@TheDiamondBaseball “the data people have way more experience than I.” “I beg to differ sir.” To steal a line of Val Kilmer’s in “Tombstone.” I think the analytics has taken over too much of the game and far too often they are simply wrong. Eye test and players words hold more water with me. For example The RBI, belittled by analytics is the single most important offensive stat. Ask any pitcher when they have to throw their highest leverage pitches. Goldy is a complete ball player.
@@chrisweidner4768RBIs are conditional though. And that, for me, is why it can’t be the most important stat. I’d care more about their BA w/RISP than a player’s aggregate RBI total. Guys in the middle of the order have the most RBI chances-leadoff hitters and guys towards the bottom of the lineup don’t nearly have as many of those opportunities. You’ve seen teams move their best hitters to the top of the lineup so that they get the most ABs in order to maximize their chances of doing damage.
Me personally, I think OPS or OPS+ is the most important statistic. It factors in a player’s plate discipline, which is important for overall evaluation of a hitter, and properly values their slugging. An RBI single is worth more than a solo HR, for example, when the goal is to win a game, but not for individual player evaluation. OPS+ incorporates the comparative nature of player evaluation by accounting for league averages
@@chrisweidner4768 OBP is for most players who don't SLG well THE offensive stat, 2nd is the OPS (OBP + SLG), with his OPS+ adjusted for the home ballpark for one-half his GP.
RBIs are dependent on his teammates OBP (his lineup number, and protection behind him), and circumstances. Teammate on 1b, Player hits a Double, but the slower runner can't score, so he doesn't get an RBI. A faster runner scores, so he does get an RBI. Things like that add-up over 162 Games.
How first basemen are given so little value when calculating WAR makes no sense to me. Being able to cleanly, reliably field throws that are off target or in the dirt, along with fielding batted balls, seems to me like defense for a first base should be valued higher than corner outfield and at least on par with third base third base. It just seems like good defense from a position that is involved in so many plays per game has to be more valuable.
Goldschmidt was an absolute beast this year!
Btw, excellent breakdown! Good job!
Thanks, glad you enjoyed it!
He had a phenomenal year, his final percentage statistics would have been higher, but he slumped badly in the last 3 weeks of September.
2022 .317/.404/.578 .981 OPS 180 OPS+ 7.8 WAR
Sep. .245/.333/.383 .716 OPS 105 OPS+
So proud of Goldy. I hope Nado can get 1 too
He had some insane defense for a first baseman too
Early in his career, absolutely. He was actually a little below average on defense this year according to the metrics, but when you have a 170 wRC+ that doesn't really matter as much lol
So a big reason Freeman and Abreu (two 1B) won it in 2020 was because of the shortened season. Wow! I had NO idea WAR took the length of season into account. I didn't really have a good idea of how it is calculated at all. Thank you for the education . I'm subbed and looking forward to checking out your other stuff. This is a great channel.
Thanks, glad you enjoyed it!
It's not that it accounts for length of season, it's more that it's a cumulative stat. Totally bogus made up numbers are coming for ease of math: So if 1st has a -0.1 war per game on average compared to SS, over 100 games that would be a 10 war deficit. So a 1st baseman would have to hit 10 war better than the best SS to beat him in war. If the season is only 50 games, that's only a 5 war deficit.
Now of course the offensive numbers are also cumulative so you could say that while the shortened season reduces the defensive deficit, it also reduces the time the better offensive 1st baseman has to make up for that deficit, leading to the whole thing being a push that still favors a SS. The problem seems to be that the defensive numbers are skewed in favor of the SS and other defensive players by way too wide a margin so it's not a push. So basically the best chance a 1st baseman has to win an MVP is in a one game season. Every additional game slightly decreases his chances.
Both offensive and defensive war scale with the number of games. If a short season favors offensive war leaders, it would be because offensive war variance is greater, so the extreme values are relatively enhanced for offensive vs defensive war.
Yes, this is 100% correct (and also how Abreu turned two great months into an MVP award). Any player is capable of generating a ton of WAR by having a Linsanity run on offense, but it's practically impossible to rack up defensive value in the same way.
I know everyone’s gonna hate me on this. But THIS discussion is exactly why I haven’t watched baseball in ab 7-8 years. I don’t want to have to use computer programs to tout my fave players Baseball has become sooooo deep stat driven that folks like me have just checked out. No biggie, you keep doing you, just my thought
Let’s go Paul!!! Showing that your prime is whenever the hell you say it is;) also, his windup is different but doesn’t his actual swing look a lot like Trout? Now if he could just find his postseason footing.
Even as one of Goldy’s biggest fans, I’m genuinely shocked that he was able to pull this off at 35. What an incredible season from him top to bottom. Also, he has a .909 OPS and 8 HR in a little over 100 career postseason ABs, so I would say that this year is probably just a fluke 👍🏼
I'm working on an article about Fred McGriff right now and comparing his JAWS to other 1B and when I got to Keith Hernandez and saw he out WARd McGriff, my mind said, "wow can we just throw out defense here?"
90% of me agrees with WAR penalizing 1B because of defense, but the other 10% loves when guys like Freddie and Goldschmidt win
I mean, they both should probably be in the HOF, but it will be a lot harder now that WAR is a huge part of the Hall of Fame debate now too. That’s why Goldy and Votto are treated like edge cases and “sneaky” candidates instead of what they are, which is future Hall of Famers
@@TheDiamondBaseball it really baffles me that a statistic based largely off of the statistics of average players at one's position in a given year in theory would be considered in players' HOF cases. As if one's consistent production in longevity and contributions to a team's success isn't enough. I can almost kinda-sorta get it in the context of the MVP as a comparison of the worth of players, but value =/= subjective value in comparison to yearly averages.
@@antonioreconquistador What's great about metrics like WAR and other normalized stats like wRC+ is that they allow us to put these performances in the proper context of the era they played in. When it comes to the Hall of Fame Voting, I think the two key questions are "How good was this player compared to his peers" and "How does this performance stack up compared with other Hall of Famers." With metrics like WAR, we can not only see just how much better they were compared to players of their own time, but we can also compare performances across eras. Plus, WAR is currently the best tool we have for measuring a player's total contributions, so it absolutely makes sense that it would be a factor in someone's hall of fame case, especially for players who might otherwise get overlooked by traditional stats
The only thing that prevented Vlady from winning MVP was a truly generational player having a truly generational season, the likes of which we will never see again, neither from Ohtani or anyone else. Vlady will win at least won MVP at 1B in his career, and Ohtani might even win another one as well. We might not get another season like 2021, but both of these guys still have so much incredible baseball yet to give and I’m excited to watch it happen.
Just found your channel on TH-cam recommendation I have to say the quality is Hella good you just earned a new subscriber
Thank you man, glad you enjoyed the video!
I didn't understand the explanation of how first base creates a negative defensive WAR value. That, on the face of it, is ridiculous. I understand why it would reduce the number of opportunities to gain WAR points, but I don't see how the position can generate negative points.
It makes sense that first basemen generally would have lower defensive WAR scores. After all, infielders that lose range and speed move to the corners on the way to DH. Cal Ripken (who changed the way baseball valued offensive production in shortstops) moved to 3rd when he slowed down, and Miggie was moved from 3rd to 1st when he slowed down. So they TEND to be older and less athletic than other position players.
Out of curiosity, is there a stat that tracks the prowess peculiar to first basemen in saving infield throwing errors? That should be taken into consideration as part of their defensive WAR value. Some can really 'pick it' and some can't, and that usually means the difference between a putout and a batter reaching second, often with an RBI.
These are two great questions. The idea behind the defensive adjustment is that it helps balance out traditionally offense-first positions like first base and defense-first positions like catcher or shortstop. Without it, we would have the opposite situation: excellent defenders at skill positions having a hard time getting recognized because first basemen dominate the offensive metrics. That being said, the ideal adjustment is up for discussion, and I personally think the first base penalty is a bit harsh - particularly for fWAR. To answer your second question, there isn't one yet to my knowledge. However, I feel the next logical step forward is a metric similar to framing runs for catchers, one that takes into account how good a first baseman is at converting plays into outs. I'm actually looking into making something myself, but it's hard to find good data on infield throws.
I still can’t statistically wrap my head around how Cabrera could have a triple crown and not even come close in comparison to Mike Trout overall. Sure Trout steals bases and was the best defensive CF but 3 wins better?
Trout was worth about a win and a half on the basepaths alone (14.3 runs!) and Cabrera cost his team about a win (-7.5 runs). 3B and CF have the same defensive adjustment, but Trout was 8 runs better than average and Cabrera was 2 runs worse than average. Both produced just as much at the plate (167 wRC+), so defense and baserunning really were the difference
It helps when you spend most of the season leading in the triple crown stats. Most of the season wasnt "can goldschmidt win the mvp?" It was "can he keep going and win the triple crown?". Instead of discussing the MVP race it was all about him and a potential triple crown, which helped a LOT even if he didnt hold on. Good for him tho he deserves it
Yeah, the most important part of MVP politics is controlling the narrative. With first baseman, you gotta have a monster first half to get in the convo and then at least maintain that pace to give yourself a chance. We saw the same with Vlad last year, but we all knew he had no chance to actually win it. So happy Goldy had the opportunity to finally finish the job this year
Look at war leaders today. Freddie freeman made his first error two days ago and his war went down 0.3 war. That is absolutely crazy
Ohtani 9 war
Ha-Seong Kim 5.9 war
Ronald Acuna Jr. 5.8 war
Wander Franco 5.6 war
Mookie Betts 5.5 war
Freddie Freeman 5.4 war
Offense>defense to define a player, u can go a whole game without a ball being hit at u, but everyone gets to hit at least 3 times. Also no team game plans around someone’s defensive ability, but they do game plan around someone’s offensive abilities, food for thought.
Oh I absolutely agree, the problem is that it’s hard to be 2+ wins better on offense than another MVP caliber player in terms of WAR, and that is the issue for first basemen. If Goldy doesn’t have a 170 wRC+, he probably finishes third in voting
These are always super well done and really informative for both the average and seasoned MLB fan. Thanks for making these and keep up the amazing work!!
These are the kind of comments I put in the work for, thank you for your support!
In my openion even war is no longer an accurate metrix to evaluate the total value of the player because it significantly negatively affects the value a non offensive player brings to the table. The best example of this is Ohtani. overall his hitting and pitching war was higher than Judge's but they had to deduct WAR for him not playing defense. At a glance you could say fair enough he didn't make any defensive contributions therefore he shouldn't be credited. But when you look at it more in-depth Ohtani doing pitching and hitting opens up full roster position for another utility player, having an extra player to use in your rotation or to bring off the pench or to rotate different days to give your other players a day to recover significantly helps with player fatigue and preventing injury, which in the long term means you have more of your players fresh and ready to play at their best which contributes to more wins. I think there should be major adjustments to WAR to be able to accuratly measure the true value of a two way player.
Great video, as a Cardinals fan and a fan of Goldy from his days as a D-Back, I’m so happy he won the MVP. It’s awesome to watch him play everyday, the quiet superstar putting his head down and going to work.
Same here man
Jeff Bagwell was a beast on the base pads
It’s kind of crazy how no one really talks about him much anymore, like I don’t hear him get brought up a whole lot compared to other greats from that era
This channel is gonna explode
I hope so!
Amazing video, also couldn't be happier Goldy took home the MVP, well deserved, and insane considering I think he should have won in 2013 when he got second which was 9 years ago, his IQ and insane play have let him basically have 2 primes. My favorite player.
Keep up the great work - you’ll take off like crazy soon
Thank you man, appreciate the support!
I love the mlb the show gameplay in the background
Freddy and Jose punching the air rn 💀 haha and yes I watched the video just funny
Honestly I’m happy for both of them. Freddie deserves one, and Jose winning is a great feel-good story and great recognition after a relatively underrated career
I fully believe that Freddie will win another before his career is done.
I hope so, It would be nice to see him get one without the asterisk attached
Go Goldy. Let's Go!!!
How was there a 12 year gap for 1B MVPs when Freddie Freeman won NL MVP in 2020🤔🤔🤔
Did you even watch the video? I literally spend like 1-2 minutes explaining why I don't count 2020 in that count
Having a platinum gold Glover and Goldy on the corners. People don't know how special this team still is.
There is no voter bias against first basemen; if one of them has a good enough season he will win MVP. We just happen to be going through a rather weak period for top level first sackers. Since 2010, the only first basemen who have even had close to 'MVP type' of seasons have been Votto, Cabrera, Goldschmidt, and Freeman. Votto finished in the top 3 in 2015, 2016, and 2017 (you can't really argue against the guys who actually won), Miggy won in 2012 and 2013, and Goldy/Freeman also won one apiece in their respective career years. They also finished highly in several other years, appropriate to their level of hitting. I see nothing unusual or different in how the voters see first basemen the past decade or so.
A question about Pujols: wasn’t he originally an outfielder, with a bat the team didn’t want to pull from the lineup, placed at first because of a (shoulder?) injury so he wouldn’t have to make long throws?
I’m not trolling; I’m asking with good intent. For what it’s worth I think Pujols shined at 1B, and the teamwork between him and Molina lifted him up a couple notches. Mostly I’m wondering if I’m remembering things right, but I’m also wondering if Pujols wasn’t a 1B-man do you think he would be what he e fed up as?
Your explanation regarding the shortened 2020 season is flawed/doesn’t make sense. It might be true that the defensive adjustment is reduced because of the shorter season, but the “per game” defensive adjustment remains the same in a shortened season as it is in a 162-game season.
Yes, but the smaller total adjustment makes it so that great offensive performances are recognized more/not as discounted compared to a full season. There is also greater offensive variance in a shortened season, meaning that it’s easier to have a monster two months at the plate than to keep that pace over a full season. Offensive production matters much more in terms of WAR in a 60-game season
Man what a good video new sub over here
Huge Pirates fan here and not to take anything away from what Andrew McCutchen did in 2013, but Goldy should have won it there, he was just on an absolute dog water of Dbacks team. Glad he got this for the resume.
Big fan of his but what a shame that both he and Arenado couldn't step up when it mattered the most. Congrats on winning the MVP anyway.
Funny thing is Judge is also in the same scenario.
You know what they say, “it’s a regular-season award.” It is a shame though because Goldy has been great in the playoffs prior to this (.909 OPS and 8 HR in 102 PA)
@@TheDiamondBaseball Yeah, it sucks to not be the man for the team when it matters. Hopefully he has an opportunity to do it next year.
@@viveknamikaze761 Given how bad the NL Central is, I'd be shocked if he didn't
@@TheDiamondBaseball Lol 😂, both the central suck tbh... NL probably a bit worse than the AL
@@viveknamikaze761 Between the Cubs, the Reds, and the Pirates, you're probably right
Talk about why a pitcher always wins the Cy Young every year
Nah, rookie of the year discourse is where it’s at now
Goldy is very deserving... though the part that hacks me off.. too many people feel the MVP should be the BEST PLAYER... which is not the case... forget war and other sabremetric tomfoolery... lets look at this years AL MVP.. Ohtani vs Judge... Both had great years... best overall player... it's hard to argue against a top pitcher who is also a top hitter.. we've not seen that since the days of the Babe... But that V is who is most valuable to his team? Anotherwards.. if that player is out of the lineup.. how much worse is his team... Well, Sorry to say.. WITH Ohtani.. the Angels were 73-89.. so without him.. well they go from bad to worse.. big deal...Judge.. they won their division and were the 2 seed in the AL playoffs.. you take Judge away.. there is a good chance that team misses the playoffs... War is a nice stat.. but the award is not "Who is the best player"... more... "Who made the biggest difference for their team?".. Using war for that.. shows people don't know the award their giving out. Oh, I'm still a bit old school that the MVP should be from a playoff team unless someone on a non-contender did something truely great.. and no clear cut winner from the playoff teams.. because frankly, if you played on a non-playoff team in 2022.. you're team is pretty bad.. that was not the case years ago when only divisional winners went or even back to the only playoffs being the world series... but today... only 2 teams in both leagues had a .500 or better record and missed.. (and 2 of those 4 were right at .500)... so I can't give that award to anyone not on the playoff team.. because if you aren't.. then even the greatest season would not have really added that much real marketable value.. WAR is a nice number.. but it's not really a marketable value unless you're a free agent.. to fans... we don't give a rats...
Very well-made. The only area of improvement needed is audio really. Cheers!
Appreciate the kind words! Which part of the audio were you having trouble with? I was testing out a new audio plugin for this video and I'm still getting it dialed in, so I'd appreciate the feedback!
@@TheDiamondBaseball I’m not positive (I’m far from an audiophile) but I did like the audio on your previous video better
excellent video!
Thank you!
The only thing I kinda disagree with is the idea of team success being a big influence on the MVP voting. It's nowhere near as big an issue as in the past. If that was the case, Alex Bregman would have won AL MVP in 2019. The last time it might have been the case would be Josh Donaldson in 2015 winning over Trout but even then I think there are other reasons for why that happened. And though WAR is a big factor in the MVP debate, being on top doesn't always translate to being the MVP, as Bryce Harper winning over Soto proved in 2021. Harper was only 9th in the NL in WAR, behind Soto but also Austin Riley and Tyler O'Neill
It was comical with how many padres fans thought machado was going to win
He was light years away from Goldschmidt’s production and they couldn’t accept it at all lol
Bagwell’s forearms deserved their own Sabermetric.
A diamond in the rough, you're going places, kid
Thanks man! Appreciate the support!
The thing is, Freddie is a great base runner and a great defender
Yes he is, and he also just had the best season of his career
@@TheDiamondBaseball but yeah the majority of first baseman are like you say, very well done video
@@wolfboy8667 Thank you, glad you enjoyed it! He and Goldy are probably the only ones with the overall skill set to overcome the WAR discount tbh
@@TheDiamondBaseball If Olson could stop striking out every other at bat, he could be but I don't think that is going to happen.
Doubt it. A first baseman has led the league in WAR many times. If they’re the best hitter by a solid margin they’re gonna win it
Yes, you’re right. But they would have to be an otherworldly level of hitter. The last two times a first baseman led his league in WAR, it was Peak Albert Pujols and Peak Joey Votto. Goldy had a 170 wRC+ this year - which led the NL by 20 points - and he still finished third. It’s tough sledding
WAR is a simple-minded concept disguised as science, especially when it comes to the Cy Young Award.
In 2012, by winning the Triple Crown sand leading his team to the World Series, Cabrera absolutely deserved the MVP. In the NL, Buster Posey also deserved his MVP, because he had such a big impact on the Giants pitching staff.
I definitely don't disagree with you about 2012. With Cabrera, the historical significance of his achievement and the fact that he was the story of that season made him more than worthy of winning, and Posey was tied with Trout at the top of the fWAR leaderboards, dominating in all aspects of the game. That being said, I think you misunderstand WAR. What makes it great is that even though it is the most advanced tool we have developed to measure player performance and was the result of years of development and data science, the concept behind it is simple enough for everyone to understand, and both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are very transparent about what exactly goes into it. Of course, it should never be the only thing we look at when we discuss a player's value, but it is a great way to start the conversation.
@@TheDiamondBaseball, I’ve been an anti-WAR activist for a long time, though admittedly, can’t discern the differences between the various iterations.
It’s perfectly fine for entertainment purposes and I suppose contract negotiations. If I were a GM, I WOULD consider some of the other advanced metrics when drafting, trading, and signing free agents.
If I were a baseball writer, I would disregard WAR entirely. In fact, BBWAA should advise its voters not use it, as it diminishes the value of their input.
Here’s the thing: Players, have a singular, present tense mission, that gets reset everyday. Win with the teammates they’re playing with, in the ballpark they’re playing in. For pitchers, it’s to maintain the lead or tie they had in the 1st inning, get as many outs as possible. WAR is an embarrassing stat for them. Bill James even said as much to one of his protégés I was debating with about the travesty of deGrom’s CYA’s.
OTOH if fWAR has Posey ranked first in 2012, then it’s been tweaked for the better. I remember some commentators complaining about Braun and McCutchen getting snubbed. Last season, whoever had Soto first on their MVP ballots was just being ridiculous.
First base defense being less valuable doesn’t make sense. Go back and look at the cardinals infield performance with Jose Martinez at first and then look at the dramatic turnaround in 2019 with Goldy at first.
We need to figure out a way to incorporate first base receiving into their war calculation like framing runs for catchers
@@TheDiamondBaseball something like a catch difficulty. Think of the highlight reel play between Arenado and Goldy in Arizona. Great play by Arenado no doubt, but it was an extremely difficult ball to catch for Goldy.
@@jon-eriksuermann9844 I imagine this could be something that could be measured by Statcast/Hawkeye, we already have models that track the throws across the infield, measure the speed, and also calculate catch probabilities on fly balls, so a "catch difficulty" factor for first basemen doesn't seem like a reach.
i used to be a massive subscriber to WAR, and i still use it to an extent, but i’ve changed my tune a bit over the last couple of years. i feel like the positional valuations/devaluations on both offense and defense are a bit archaic. it penalizes 1B like we’re still in an age where there are 10 elite sluggers at 1st with only tulo and reyes doing good at the shortstop position. not to mention they have no idea how to evaluate ohtani, or a first baseman’s defensive impact saving errors and runs via picks. overall it does a pretty damn good job at telling you who the good players are, but it’s flawed as a be all end all when comparing valuable players. i’m sorry, but i’m not convinced that as of july 5 2023, nico hoerner is an equal player to matt olson. great and pretty thought enduring video 😂
Which active first baseman do you think has the best chance to be the next one to win MVP, if any? Let us know down below!
Freddie freeman
@@terra_byte5402 It's kind of weird how people kind of forgot about Freddie this year, but he quietly just had his best season ever.
Ed Bouchée .
Billy Stagliano down the street...he ALWAYS gets to first base. The rest of it, not so much.
@@TheDiamondBaseball That’s becaus the Artful Dodgers didn’t play anybody.
I think the position adjustments in WAR are much too big.
A position player's WAR is the sum of two terms, offensive WAR (oWAR), which measures the player's offensive contribution and includes hitting and baserunning, and defensive WAR (dWAR), which includes estimates of defensive contribution. Since some position are more difficult to play than others, a correction is applied to both oWAR and dWAR. The justification usually given for the adjustment is that since some positions are more difficult to play, it's harder to find players who can both play the position well and hit well.
(I don't understand why the position adjustment is applied to dWAR. Application of position adjustment to dWAR also makes it necessary to subtract the position adjustment when calculating total WAR, otherwise it would be counted twice.)
Since each team has to have someone playing each position and they are trying to win as many games as possible, I would expect the average corrected WAR would be about the same for all positions.
Since I was unable to find the league average WAR by position, I had to use a surrogate.
I estimated uncorrected oWAR using OPS (average OPS by position is available on fangraphs).
I converted OPS to runs created using the formula
Runs created = 85*OPS
which I found on baseballjudgments.tripod.com/id88.html.
I then coverted runs created to WINS using the formula
WINS=Runs Created / 10 = 8.5*OPS
which I found at www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_runs_to_wins.shtml.
I also found the WAR position adjustment at www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_position.shtml
If the position adjustment is done correctly, I would expect that the sum of offensive WINS and the position adjustment should be about the same for all positions.
Here are my results (I subtracted 5.8 from the WINS+position adjustment so that the average discrepancy is 0):
Position League OPS WINS WAR position adjustment Discrepancy (WINS + position adjustment-5.8)
DH .732 6.2 -1.5 -1.1
C .663 5.6 0.9 0.7
1B .730 6.2 -0.95 -0.5
2B .687 5.8 0.3 0.3
SS .685 5.8 0.7 0.7
3B .713 6.1 0.2 0.5
LF .705 6.0 -0.7 -0.5
CF .693 5.9 +0.25 0.3
RF .712 6.0 -0.7 -0.5
It's clear from this table that the position adjustments grossly over correct for the scarcity of good hitters at the "skill" positions. The difference in offensive production between the position with the best hitters (DH) and the worst hitters (Catcher) on average is only about 0.6 wins, while the difference in correction is 2.4 wins, about 4x as large. DHs and 1B are particularly penalized by this correction.
Dude, I literally covered all this in the video, some parts literally word for word lmao
America's First Basemen!!
The MVP award is not meant for first baseman or designated hitters. You'd have to have a god like season at the plate to win MVP as a designated hitter. Even David Ortiz in all his slugging Glory could never quite do it.
I get the argument for DH not winning MVP, but prior to 2010 first basemen were winning the award like a quarter of the time, so saying the award isn’t meant for them is kind of confusing. Realistically, all positions should be able to win it, and all have except for DH
Great video. Subbed 👍🏽
Thanks, glad you enjoyed it!
Earned a sub but please stop with the weird vsause camera angle stuff
This is a good perspective but Goldie literally just won the award and vald jr was so close if it wasn’t for babe Ruth in 2021
Such a great video!
Thank you!
All this is a great argument as to why WAR is a crap stat, and to say that defense isn't important at first base is a joke.
No metric is perfect, but pointing out a minor thing that I think WAR gets wrong does not mean that it’s a “crap stat.” It is still by far the best tool we currently have to measure a player’s total value, and I’m sure there will be adjustments later on that will take into account things like how well a first baseman picks throws. Just because it’s not perfect in every way (and again, no single metric ever is) does not mean that it isn’t incredibly useful or that we can learn a lot from it
@@TheDiamondBaseball I respectfully disagree ever since it went mainstream people treat it like the end all be all stat. I really enjoyed the video btw, but people seem to ignore that WAR comes from one of 3 different sources and they don't agree on how it's calculated. I don't ever remember asking for a statistical way to determine someone's value because it completely ignores intangibles like leadership, Intellect, and toughness. That being said I don't run a MLB team and don't need quantifiable reasons to pay someone 30 million a year. Thank you for responding and I look forward to the next video.
@@jasonvaught2274 Yeah, completely agree that some people either take it too seriously or don't put it in its proper context. It should be just a baseline measurement of value and a comparison tool - the start of the discussion and not the end. Anyway, thank you for the respectful and kind response, you wouldn't believe how angry and venomous some people get on here, so I appreciate the kind words
WAR is a interesting stat and I like to go through all the WAR leaders. But it has its faults and should not be used to determine the MVP
I mean, it makes sense to use it in the MVP discussions, as it is the best metric we currently have to directly compare the total value of players at different positions, but I just think we have to add more context to the discussion and take other factors and metrics into consideration when we do.
Thrilled for Goldy. Wish he could’ve done it here in AZ, but our cheapskate owner made sure that it wouldn’t.
I will never forgive that front office for giving Goldy away and then giving Mad Bum the same contract
@@TheDiamondBaseball in fairness Bum is making about 40 mil less than Goldy, and about 80 mil more than he deserves. That said I’ve spoken with a certain member of the media who has a well known inside source that says that if Goldy had been offered the same extension he got in StL then he would’ve stayed. It’s all a bit of “inside baseball”, but it’s also in the past. Nothing to be done about it now other than hope that maybe he comes back to the Valley to finish up his career. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
So with Guerrero he’s 24 yrs old and his team makes the playoffs yet Ohtani’s Angels do not and he wins MVP, he’s a beast as is Trout but if they don’t make playoffs how is it that they are MVP? You can win 15 games and hit 50 HRs and drive in 100 RBI’s but if your team doesn’t make the playoffs then you’re not the MVP. You’re #1 in Offence and maybe you should win the Cy Young but MVP should be held to different standards but that is my opinion only.
Just because the Angels are a dogshit organization that can't build around the two greatest players of our generation in their prime doesn't mean Trout and Ohtani aren't worthy of winning MVP for their superhuman efforts. This isn't basketball, one player can't win you a World Series. MVP is an individual award for the best individual player, and it should be treated as such.
@@TheDiamondBaseball that’s the most outstanding player not the most valuable player I have to agree with the guy who commented this they should have a different award in football if ur team sucks ur not winning the mvp not saying ohtani shouldn’t have won I just think the most valuable player should be to a winning player while ohtani would be most outstanding player if ohtani had the same numbers as judge in the offence while his team record stayed the same while the Yankees record stayed the same judge is the most valuable player it doesn’t make sense that ohtani would be
I remember seeing Miguel Cabrera almost losing the MVP but the entire time I was like are you seriously going to deny a triple crown winner the award. Then this year people were doing the same to Judge with Ohtani.
I think we tend to forget that in both cases, the vote was pretty decisive. Cabrera got 22 of 28 first place votes and Judge got all but 2. Would Trout and Ohtani both be deserving winners? Yeah, it would be easy to make an argument for them being the best players in the league. But ultimately, the importance that Cabrera's and Judge's seasons had on the history of the game meant that there really wasn't a chance they were going to lose.
i think you forgot that in 2019 cody bellinger wok it as a first baseman
He started 28 games at first base that year, and he only played a complete game there 13 times. He can play first base, but he is an outfielder, not a first baseman.
A 1B hits 80 homerun
1:38: the Fans watching 👁️👄👁️
I didn't even notice this when I was editing, that genuinely made me laugh out loud. God bless the guy who had to do that in the mocap suit for it to be in the game lmao
@@TheDiamondBaseball yeah haha
WAR is fascinating because Ohtani 100% deserved the MVP. While, yes Judge had a season that we haven't seen in 20+ years, Ohtani is doing things we've never seen. Period. Judge put up a crazy WAR of 10.6 But Ohtani? Only 1 behind, 9.6. And that's not factoring in his pitching in which he went 15-9. If we slap on those 15 wins Ohtani is worth almost 25 WAR. TWENTY FIVE. Obviously all 15 of those aren't guaranteed losses by a replacement pitcher, but even if it went down to 10 wins, that's still a 20 WAR season.
Like you said, a lot of it is politics and MVP voters, but Ohtani, whether you like it or not, should have won MVP.
If not for Judges magical season, yes, Ohtani is MVP. You're failing to recognize the fact Judge saved the Yankees from a complete collapse and was a huge reason they even made the playoffs. And despite Ohtani's brilliance, the Angel's were like 30 games out and nowhere near contention at any point. WAR is not the be and end all. If the Angel's had made a run for the playoffs, the race would have been a lot closer.
I don't like how they value positions cathers shouldn't be as much as 1st basemen
Good hitting is timeless.
If the next Mike Trout, Ted Williams or Barry Bonds played first base we wouldn't think this way.
The one of my generation did actually, and his name was Albert Pujols.
Analytics and forward looking metrics like WAR diminish first basemen because you have to be an Albert Pujols level hitter with power for your hitting to stand out against your competition if you don't add value in the field.
People take WAR too literally. If you're within like 2 WAR of another guy you're roughly on the same level once you take regression to the mean into account.
The best modern player explains his true 5 tool value through WAR so it makes sense that people are looking for the next Mike Trout when handing out awards.
But that isn't what greatness looks like. The next generational talent will be so great that we have to come up with new statistics to measure him.
Trout is also a .300/.400/.500 career hitter with 350 career HR.
Great players have always fit the traditional stats as well and always will.
Analytics people have gone so far out trying to find the next Mike Trout that they can't appreciate greatness as its observed in the current moment.
Think about it this way. What's more exciting, a flash in the pan .400 hitter or a 15 WAR season with a high OBP approach, stolen base approach, gold glove and the guy hits .250?
Yeah maybe the .250 high tools guy will do better next year, but no one has hit .400 in almost 80 years.
Yeah, I don't disagree with any of your points. One thing I'd particularly like to see implemented (as some others in the comments have also mentioned) is something similar to framing runs for catchers, but for first basemen receiving throws to first base. That and/or an adjustment to the positional adjustments.
@@TheDiamondBaseball Yeah I think people really underestimate the values of gold glove picks and good defense at first base.
Anyone who's played will tell you a glove first 1st baseman is a blessing on defense.
Pujols was also a gold glover in his 20s and had a 2 dWAR season at first as strange as it feels saying that now. He was a lot more well rounded in his prime than people remember him as today.
Maybe you don't cover the same ground as a center fielder or shortstop but you touch the ball the most of any non-battery member in the field.
There has to be more inherent value in that than the positional adjustments currently account for.
". . . first base, the position where defense matters the least . . ." Wait, that's not true! Defense matters more at first base than any other infield position! The first baseman is involved in the vast majority of the groundball outs where the putout is at first, either as the person who fields the ball or the person who gets the putout, or both!The first baseman has to catch the throws from the other infielders. A good defensive first baseman (like Goldschmidt) turns throws that would have been throwing errors from the other infielders into outs. A bad defensive first baseman turns throws that would have been outs into errors. A good defensive first baseman makes all the other infielders better, a bad defensive first baseman makes all the other infielders worse. How could any sane person think defense matters least at first base?
I guess I should’ve said “matters the least in terms of the defensive adjustment” to be more specific, because that was what I meant. Personally, I agree with you.
Have you heard of a man by the mane of Vladimir Guerrero Jr?
2 things with Vlad:
1) He plays in the same league as peak Shohei Ohtani and peak Aaron Judge
2) Hitting is really his only tool. He’s below average on the bases and in the field. It’s hard to overcome that when it comes to putting up the WAR necessary to compete for MVP.
He may very well do it one day, but honestly I highly doubt it. It would take a lot of things to go right for him all at once
I disagree personally, I think people have began to realize especially with this years MVP vote, war is awesome but it’s not everything and you need to take it with a grain of salt and the voters showed that
I mean, the three NL finalists this year all finished within .3 wins of each other, essentially tied at the top of the league, so of course other factors were taken into account. But also, no MVP voter bases their vote on WAR alone, and if they do, they probably shouldn't have a vote. WAR is supposed to be the beginning of the conversation, not the end of it.
Goldy deserved it for getting robbed twice while he played in Arizona
YOU'RE GOD DAMN RIGHT
If WAR was around back in the 90s Ken Griffey Jr would have a lot more than 1. He lost to 3.8 WAR Juan Gonzalez in 96.... His WAR was 9.7!
Vladimir Guerrero jr. Nearly won it in 2021, he probably will eventually win mvp
I hope for his sake that he does, but I just don't see it happening unless Trout, Ohtani, and Judge all get hurt or leave the AL
Love it
Thanks!
Vladdy win prob gonna win it next year after this video lol
If he somehow beats out Ohtani and Judge next year he will have earned it
Kennesaw Mountain Landis?... I'll pass.
??? I don’t mention him once in the video? Where is this coming from?
WAR is a joke of a stat because it's based off of position and isn't very accurate either. Also it depends on how trash your team is. Just because you are more valuable to your team because you maybe the ONLY superstar on your team doesn't mean you deserve to win MVP.
I have always considered the WAR calculation for 1st Base defense to be flawed for one primary reason...almost EVERY infield play includes the 1st Baseman. This is not true for any other player. A great SS with a bad 1st Baseman is so obvious. This same problem also exists for catcher. WAR and other "advanced" metrics are really not "advanced" at all. The biases present in the metrics design (all created by those have never played an inning of high level baseball) means that the output is biased.
As a 3rd baseman in college, I can tell you that half of you value as an infielder is totally dependent on the 1st Base play. Good players there made us look better by pulling throws out of the dirt or off the bag into an out. It is a very rare infielder who makes all of their throws great. So why the hate for 1B? Again, non players designating "value" based on stupid ideas of where outs are created on the infield. No SS or 3B is creating outs by themselves on most infield plays. It is always both the fielder AND the 1B.
But, I have given up on advanced metrics ever truly capturing this stuff because those who create them never played at a high level themselves. Baseball to the stat head is a form of dungeons and dragons.
A first baseman's receiving ability is definitely underrated, and I think that does need to be addressed. We just haven't found a good enough way to measure that exact value yet. Couple things though: 1) Catcher doesn't have the same problem. Framing runs have been included in WAR totals for years now and it has really highlighted the differences between bad receivers and good ones. 2) All metrics have limits and none are perfect, but some are more useful than others. Metrics like WAR and wRC+ have their issues, but they are still by far the most effective tools we currently have to measure a player's total value. 3) If you're going to complain about statsticians making these metrics, we absolutely invite you to try making a better version yourself. Worst case scenario, you get a newfound appreciation for just how difficult it truly is to measure a player's value.
Just because a first baseman is involved in every infield play doesn’t make his defensive contribution valuable. Catching a ball while touching a base is not all that hard for major leaguers. MLB teams consistently move their old, slow, great hitters to 1B. In Little League, you need a good first baseman; in MLB, it’s often where you put people who can’t play anywhere else.
Look at that obviously juiced up Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell… Wow, he looks like McGwire in those clips.
I can still see Vladimir jr winning it
He certainly has the offensive capability, but unfortunately the only way I ever see him having a chance of winning it is if Judge or Ohtani both get hurt or leave the AL at some point during his prime.
All you did is confirm how good goldy is
I mean, yeah, that was (at least part of) the point. I wasn't trying to discount him, he's literally my favorite player lmao
Post season choke story.
God man all these ex diamondbacks succeeding somewhere else 😢
Here’s something. First base is one of the most important positions in the field, because on a lot of balls in play, they’re the main target
Are you saying that a lot of balls in play are hit to them? Because in that case, shortstop gets the most hit to them by a pretty good margin. First base probably gets the least given current batting trends
@@TheDiamondBaseball i believe he isn’t talking about hit to them but rather the most thrown to them.
@@boss_eltoro8085 In that case I can kind of see where he's coming from, but unless the other infielders are terrible at throwing the ball, how well they receive the throw doesn't move the needle much
@@TheDiamondBaseball Yeah that is what I’m talking about
@@TheDiamondBaseball or the first basemen could be completely terrible at receiving😂 not arguing for any side but it could go either way lol. I do agree that hitting is a pivotable point for first basemen as their position on the field is kinda eh attractive wise.