The Hard Truth About Australian Housing From NYU Professor Scott Galloway
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 พ.ค. 2024
- Scott Galloway discusses Australian Housing. What are Scott Galloways thoughts on renting vs buying a house? Is housing in for a shock in Australia?
This clip was taken from the following Equity Mates Investing Podcast episode:
• Expert: Professor Scot...
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Hi All! This clip was taking from the Equity Mates Investing Podcast episode 'Expert: Professor Scott Galloway - The formula for building wealth'.
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/5NeST7tAhE4jEF8kkfb4Bp?si=f0fed9412bd64f1f
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/expert-professor-scott-galloway-the-formula-for/id1212097275?i=1000653959671
TH-cam: th-cam.com/video/YAfLOEoXdNU/w-d-xo.html
Guy should have left it at 'I don't understand the Australian Market'!
Yup
My left ear liked this
time for accessibility options! Enable Mono Audio
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Consider reallocating from real estate to other reliable investments like stock, crypto or precious metals . Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice, but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
"Just rent when the math doesn't add up". If you said this in 2010 you would be 100% correct but still all your mates would be millionaires and you'd be getting gouged up the arse by a landlord. Australia is one of the worst oligarchies in the world but unfortunately my countrymen are very naïve and don't understand this yet.
Oh, and by the way THERE ARE NO RENTALS.
number of house markets where buying is cheaper than renting plummeted to just 2.5% - or 52 out of 2113 suburbs - nationwide as of March. For unit buyers, in only 10.8% - or 112 suburbs - was it cheaper to buy than rent. that's from Corelogic based on median priced house/unit
You cant outrun a bad diet.
Maybe when you are young, you can for a little while, but you cant do it forever.
Tdlr : You cant pass your costs on to consumers forever. If you manufacture too much scarcity of a product, you might eventually have too much stock on the shelves and not enough cash flow to cover your expenses, the small will go out of business first, while the top few survive , the market will become non competitive, as an essential service /human right will cause civil unrest, hurt productivity , hurt the economy and the government will eventually be forced to adapt fiscal policy, impose price regulation to correct it. .
@@allbirdsarecats This is where you're wrong. I used to think the same and kept waiting for the market to slow down based on the fundamentals you mentioned. After about 15 years, I realised that supply and demand, stagnant wages and other factors were never going to affect realestate prices in Australia (and globally).
Realestate is just another mechanism of control. The control of movement, the control of employment and most of all, the control of the future of the lower and middle class. I'm calling it now, in less than 30 years, realestate will be predominately be owned by large corporations and governments. Corporations will build their office and factories in areas where they own houses and run shuttle buses back and forth. Working along side the Corporations, the Government will begin to roll out UBI's for aging and long term working contracts for the young. These contracts will factor in housing and therefore force those without homes to either go homeless or agree to long term employment.
I know it sounds a bit tin foil hat but that's the only conclusion I can formulate based on the direction we're going in.
@@domlipski5226couldn’t have put it better myself other than the fact that those that will actually still have jobs (and it won’t be many) will probably work from home in the safety of their walled enclaves because almost everything that can be automated will be by that stage and UBI’s and some form of mass housing will be leveraged as yet another form of control to prevent massive civil unrest…
Dom he’s right you just haven’t zoomed out far enough. Pollies can kick the can but eventually it will roll over. History always repeats. Suckers always say the same thing at the top of every market “it’ll never go down, it can’t fail etc.” market psychology is the same no matter what you trade.
"House prices will fall very soon and we will be able to jump into the market" - Some bloke in 2009
Very true, so many people didn't buy many years earlier because of some blokes saying this every year
Sooner or later the market will 'pop' !
Ha ha haaaaa... so true though.... probably 1809 more like it
Housing was comparatively cheap in 2008-2010. Bargains were definitely on offer.
Newspapers also written that exact article every month since 2009. The rich are praying that if they keep telling us that, we'll stay calm and not drag them out of their mansions by force. I vote the latter.
Same problem in New Zealand. As long as the country is run by property investors don't expect anything to change. Even on the left side of politics there are politicians who own more than 10 properties each.
You are blaming the wrong thing.
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life.
That's true. a lot of people today have been
having a ton of disappointments in forex and crypto trading in light of helpless direction and awful specialists
She is an exceptional financial analyst,
her services are reliable and transparent and apart from myself, I have never seen any of her customers complaining about loosing their money.
$10000 meme coin, what are you talking about,??
Thats like complaining about someone that hits the jackpot on roulette... you don't like extreme risk, so you have no chance of winning big, but you won't lose everything either. you are playing a better game.
I mean that’s not really relevant. You are just talking about gambling
THANK YOU! Finally, someone is talking about artificial scarcity!!!
It's not 'growth' when the reason the price has gone up is because you've made it harder and harder for other people to acquire.
Zoning laws, local boards, building regulations etc etc.
Does he realise there are no rental properties, and even doctors are finding it difficult to find somewhere to live?
Clearly not.
It is more expensive to own in Australia than to rent for an equivalent property.
He seems to view houses as investment vehicles and not as a place to live with a family for 25+ years.
Rents are not high enough to cover a mortgage in most cities, so then you're playing the neg gearing game along with everyone else. As he said, when everyone is playing the same "sure thing" game, you need to be very wary
@@aron.gortmanno he said houses are for consumption not to make wealth per say. Did you even watch the video
Making money out of property is like shooting fish in a barrel. You simply can’t lose. It’s betting on a one horse race. The whole economy is built on real estate and the government and RBA have made it very clear that they will not let property prices fall…
Australia, unlike the USA, doesn't have a million empty and abandoned houses.
There's over 100,000 empty houses in Melbourne alone right now........
@@drobeofwar7588does that include holiday homes
You know the ones rich people have as a getaway
@@drobeofwar7588 holiday houses in regional towns without any infrastructure, services or local economies. You can't classify holiday houses in the same category as homes that people want to buy to live near economic opportunities. There would be some vacant houses in yhr cities but these stats are always skewed by holiday houses.
@@drobeofwar7588That isn't Australia; that's a Chinese exclave.
2021 census said 1m empty houses in Australia and another 970,000 holiday homes or secondary residences
Big difference in Australia is that immigration exceeds housing availability for either rent or purchase. Demand exceeds supply in Australia. No way house prices or rents will drop.
The big difference is our totally inept government
@@Daveryan23AT Likewise with ours also.
@@Daveryan23AT he just stated the problem with the second half about housing supply. people who own existing housing make it politically impossible for any new housing to get developed.
Yeah but as the world becomes aware of the crazy price of real estate in Australia, migration will slow down and there will be a market correction. I'm Aussie through and through, and even I am considering my options with respect to living abroad because Australia isn't the lucky country it once was. And if I'm thinking it, then so are a million other people who aren't in the housing market.
The NIMBY mentality prevents more housing to be built. Most Australians would rather bite the bullet of a stagnating economy with disproportionately inflated property prices than see the housing supply exceed demand.
The term is sad coined
"Artificial scarcity"
Amen to this. We have a deliberate managed shortage.
@@williamcrossan9333 It is insanity to think is a good idea to borrow 1M dollars and commit to pay 50K a year on a 5% interest loan.
Just reflect, If you had 1M cash, would you buy a house in AUS or just go somewhere else where you could live from the proceedings of that money without having to work every day?
The only thing that comes to mind is safety. The more I reflect on Australia, the only thing I see going for it is safety.
@@caraes81 Indeed, I think it's madness. It is the case at the moment, a million dollar mortgage is 72K a year to pay off.
Yeah, safety is a big one. Weather another perhaps? Lifestyle, if you can afford that!
This guys Ted talk was amazing, acknowledged he was made rich due factors which don’t exist for the young today. He wants to see change
We bought within our means but bought well with a $40k deposit. House price has doubled in seven years, and our wages have grown. We will soon upsize to a house that fits our family where we want to be. You have a life time to build wealth, it doesn't happen in five minutes. I don't doubt it is harder then before and you may never live a street back from the beach in Sydney, but I don't think things are as bad as the media make out. I feel no one is content with average!
@@thefamilyyoutubeaccount3606 typical response from someone who has managed to set themselves up during the good times and is doing fine, did you even watch the TED talk? The disparities are ridiculous, even the average has gotten out of reach of many, or even average rental costs at this stage, you are also aware of the current state of inflation right?
@@thefamilyyoutubeaccount3606 the statistics do not lie, major cities in this country have some of the worst income to house value disparities in the world. Still haven't watched his TED talk? We will just ignore all those statistics and facts will we, just pull your socks up and you will be fine 😄 The market has to adjust, if it doesn't and the trend actually continues it is a disaster for coming generations, especially if governments allow giant corporations to become the new landlords, pretending as if everything is just fine is ignorance of the highest degree at this point.
Go look at the data mate before making an ill advised comment. It is objectively harder to own a home today than it was “back in your day”. Property value vs average wage historical data is an easy place to start. The graph goes straight up mate lol
@@ConnectFork read my original comment properly mate before you make ill advised comments, "you have a life time to build wealth" and "I don't doubt it's harder" 🤣🤡🤣🤡
Well done guys for getting Scott to your podcast
Nimby we call them in oz "not in my backyard."
People pay the premium for housing because the renting experience is so horrible. It's need massive reforms before a bulk of the population can see this as a viable alternative to owning a house. Currently it's just a means of survival.
One thing the older generations should be worried about is if younger skilled people just get up and leave.
I had a friend who is a mechanical engineer who was having trouble saving up for a house deposit with his wife. their rent then went up significantly and they thought F this and they both moved to Thailand and got remote jobs. Although they are on less money than they were before they have a much better lifestyle and save up more than they did in Sydney.
I don't think this has started happening on a large scale in Australia yet, but similar things are happening in Spain and Italy. Older people get benefits and other goodies, taxes go up (and/or housing in Australia's case) and eventually young people with good educations start to leave , then taxes need to go higher to pay for the benefits, which pushes more young people to leave and so on.
Aussies main sport, religion, love affair, and obsession is real estate.
Real estate prices are often the topic of conversation in pubs, workplaces, parties and the media. Government policies, and the tax code supports high real estate prices and governments have lost elections on the strength of advocating a more equitable system. Rent is sky high and yet it is a Herculean task to be able to rent an apartment in Sydney at least, due to the fierce competition.
Economists have been predicting housing price collapses for the past 30 years... at their peril. There are relatively small price fluctuations but the trend is strongly up without much price volatility. If house prices fell substantially I suspect that there would be mass suicides and riots in the streets. It's a mess, is totally unfair and needs fixing, but fixing the situation is political certain death, so no one is game. Shorting the Australian major cities property market is something only a fool would undertake...
If you want apartment living, go for low level art deco style , 3 -4 stories, that where built, 1930's to 1960's ,most have beautiful designs, hard wood floors,solid brick, most already are all re-wire and re plumbed, can't go wrong
Can we just ban Americans from talking about the Australian real estate market?
Supply and demand.
Building costs increasing. Population increasing.
Simply not enough houses being built. Price wont be going down.
What he said about incumbents maintaining scarcity is true in Australia too.
Advance Australia unfair.
Renting in Australia is not cheaper than buying. In some places, it's actually more expensive.
I’d say it’s cheaper to rent than buy in every major capital city and town on the East Coast from Brisbane to Melbourne. That’s the majority of Australia’s population.
As a renter looking to buy, I can tell you right now mate that is a load of BS. If someone is renting, then they're lucky if they can even save a deposit, let alone one that greater than 5-10% of purchase price. So your LVR is shite, the interest you have to pay is huge and so are the repayments. For me to borrow 450k, the repayments are around $700/week. My rent is currently $385/week, so you're way way off.
@@brendancolley7353 That's true and that's why North QLD is the best place to invest at the moment.
Looking at corelogics data for this year, you are wrong.
Starts off with “I don’t much about the Australian housing market”
This is the best podcast to date in Austrália about equity, business and economy thermometer! Cheers boys
The advice here is baseless and out of touch.
The Australian housing market will never rationalise 😂
When Govt individuals and Banks have business benefits owning real estate, it is guaranteed same entities will do everything possible to strangle supply and increase demand.
My mortgage repayments consistently are cheaper than the market rent in my area, yes there are other costs to consider but atleast the bulk of your expense are going back to you by reducing your loan amount. If you can get out of renting, always get out of renting.
my left ear enjoyed this interview
Renting yield in regional Australia is insanely good, 9% net in some cases. Couple that with a relatively cheap entry price into the market and it's certainly still a fantastic investment. I'm looking at buying more coz the rent positively gears from day one.
The average house in Sydney 1.2 million dollars which is completely out of reach for average income
Averages are interesting ways to not get a full picture
Av. household weekly income in Sydney is 117k. So that is 10x. Hardly completely out of reach. Bull$hit maybe, but not out of reach.
You add health costs to housing costs and the US and Aus are about equally the same. We pay more for housing they pay more for health.
We still have another 15 to 20 years of Chinese money coming into our property market....And Australia is a property bargain compared to China's dodgy expensive vacant apartments that are renting to no one in a shrinking population in a country with the highest debt levels in history of the world. USA is a nightmare compared to Australia for the Chinese.
Absolutely correct Mr Galloway - scarcity becuase no one wants to lose a dime. The greed machine.
Immigration, lack of supply, increasing population, lack of new housing being built, strong economy and labour market, few limits for foreign ownership, good lifestyle, favourable laws and taxes for investors and reasonably far away from the world's troubles..too many factors working against the value of properties coming down or correcting at least for the next decade or more.
What Scott is missing is that our politicians will do whatever they can to keep the market going. Politicians own property. I wonder what he would say to that.
We've been in the low yield period for about 25 years I reckon.
Ya you’re on the money 🙏🤔😁👍
Firstly 27 million Aussie & we need 1.5 million home, the USA has 330million with a need of 1 Million homes? the other the usa investor with 60% leverage here in the lucky countries some have 80% leverage.
Is this guy related to Stephen Wright?
Wise words - Australia hasn’t had its correction yet but it will be massive
No it won't. People in the game can afford the property. People entering will be forced to other cities/towns/outer suburbs. Places like Sydney will flatline while places like Brisbane catch up - all while wages grow. Too big to fail to any serious extent, it's why these stock market crashes rebound in a year.
@@thefamilyyoutubeaccount3606 it’s a big wide world and Australia is not isolated or immune from risks and shocks Eg losing exports to China
th-cam.com/video/wmmYMj6uCAM/w-d-xo.htmlsi=b3ulT7y9MqOgDYOk
@@thefamilyyoutubeaccount3606 I suspect you are right up to a point
The conveyor belt will shift bogans out of Sydney and high net worth will replace low etc etc
It would be remarkable if the largest asset owned by most Australian's takes a hit across the board. Even if it did wouldn't be so big that those near retirement age can't absorb it or those younger can't hold until things rebound.
@thefamilyyoutubeaccount3606
Why would wages grow much?
That would be very massive extra inflation for wages to catch up anywhere near housing costs.
Housing Costs alone are already massive cost of Living Inflation.
Just rent & put ur $ into something else to create wealth ?? In Australia !! There’s so little left after paying rent & essentials . Soo much immigration keeps the upward pressure on housing affordability/availability
Exactly
As a 20 y.o. in Melbourne, thinking about the housing market is just depressing
Honestly, if I was your age I'd be building a niche skill over the next 3/4 years and moving to Asia - permanently.
Sorry champion this is not the USA this is paradise 😁💰💰💰
He's right, Australia's day will come. All it takes is the global price of our main exports to drop and we'll be spattered against the wall. The $AUD is already down 40% against the $US since the early 2010s.
The drop in the Australian dollar is only a good thing for Australia's jain exports. It makes them more competitive and cheaper for other countries to buy.
The Australian dollar is 2010 was high against the USD because the US was hit very much harder by the global financial crisis. U.S interest rates dropped to zero, werevas tge Australian economy was much stronger and interest rates in Australia stayed higher than the U.S. Which had the affect of increasing the value of the Australian dollar in relation to the U.S dollar
Yes but you're talking about a different type of scenario, if the international price of our exports drop first then the $AUD drops, that'll cause inflation and stagflation. That's our major risk. It's different to the $AUD dropping due to say aussies taking long overseas holidays or importing more and hence pushing the $AUD lower.
The Founder of Capitalism was against Rent.
Look up "Adam Smith Free from Rent"
Australian policies on property have made property unattainable for young Australians.
Houses aren't going up, dollars going down.
Property is the unofficial religion of Australia. Do not question it, commit fully and have blind faith or be rejected by society.
The idea of the market rationalising is silly. The market is rational, the economic policies underpinning the market aren’t but governments are too scared to attack the problem at the source.
Until then we have more people than houses (migration being concentrated into a few small areas, and the babyboomers’ kids hitting their 30s in a wave) and a tax policy that forces competition for existing properties (so no new supply) between one class of buyer who can write off the cost of owning property against their day job’s income and one class of buyer who gets no such benefit.
Incumbents - I like that word 🤨
why is the audio so bad - I can't listen it's so poor
And the great thing about renting is being endlessly kicked out every 6 months,what a joke
That discussion was far too general and vague
Irrelevant. Money printer go brrrrrr.
These eggheads are out of touch. Australia needs new cities or off the grid mini settlements along a train line. We need to develop off the grid solution for everything. Land should be cheap.
Exactly, there should be incentives for businesses that establish in regional centres and infrastructure to support. Only so many people can live in the centre of the capital cities and people can only commute so far.
@@thefamilyyoutubeaccount3606 The incentive is explosive rent prices and labour shortages. And you don't need businesses with off grid solution. A drone will drop what you need. We don't need to stay in these dirty degenerate cities. Jobs and commute pattern need to change. If AI replaces everything anyway, we will need universal basic income and you will have to work online or do local work.
Nuclear power is one the key factors to unlocking more land in Australia. Power is simply too expensive in regional areas of Australia so no business' want to invest outside the major cities.
Lol.he hasn't got a clue
I like how you disputed the points he made.
@@moviesynopsis001 Yeah, i get to the point dont I?
Mate 3/4 of the country is desert. You cant just go live in the middle 😅
What the heck m8?
We aren't experiencing "artificial scarcity", it's frigging real scarcity!
These "other investment" options, "while we rent", what are they?
Maybe you should come to the land of Oz, get yourself an average pay packet at an average job and show us yourskills?
It costs more to rent than my mortgage
He who thinks it is cheaper to rent clearly doesn't understand places like Perth where rent can more than pay off a loan and also doesn't understand basically no rentals available. I say he doesn't understand the Australian housing disaster.
It is still cheaper to rent than pay the mortgage on the equivalent home. They don’t want live in the suburb or house that they can afford. Otherwise why not just buy? And yes I’m in Perth.
@@MikeKnight-sv5de No. Do the maths on some places here. It is REALLY strange. I can think of a few instances why people would rent and not buy (actually this applies to me). 1) They plan to leave 2) They are afraid of the mining based boom and bust cycle, so think prices may go down 3) they can't get a loan or maybe can't even get the deposit together 4) they are a single person, just take a room in a shared house....
@@naguoning why people rent is a different discussion and have valid reasons. I was simply responding to your comment saying it’s not cheaper to rent than buy.
@@MikeKnight-sv5de I am not saying it is always true but in at least some instances in Perth it is (I came across the situation personally and it left me scratching my head... I never saw this elsewhere). I was saying those reasons in response to why people wouldn't buy rather than rent if cheaper.
@@naguoning yes, like Perth, there are still some patches in regional QLD which are still much cheaper to buy than rent. I also know this because I moved there. I spent months trying to find a rental, gave up and bought a place. I saved over 10k in year by buying and I've got my foot in the door.
People need to have an open mind about living in small towns. It's different but very rewarding knowing you can be mortgage free by 45 if you play your cards right.
Scott is a professor in Marketing, he may understand the basis of the US market but it shows he has not really put much time in to understanding the fundamentals of the Australian Market not even any soft truths in this one
👽👽👽👽👽👽🇦🇺😡.
Real estate came down in the U.S because they had capitalism. We are hard socialist here to my distain
Funniest thing I've read today. We are the USA's little cousin, we prop up banks, gambling, big business and the mega wealthy with billions while throwing some crumbs on the floor for pensioners and the unemployed. Then we let all the fossil fuel and mining companies rape our country and again, thrown some crumbs on the floor while they send the profits offshore.
You should probably go and read a book about Socialism if you think we practice it in Australia.
What do you mean Hard Socialist? Marxist-Leninism as the form of government? Private property isn't being nationalised. We are, however, social democratic with quite a bit of centre-right.
@@yesand5536 Well stop and think about it. Rates are not high enough to lower inflation. This prevents savers saving. This increases asset value. The assets are going to end up at the point that no privateer can afford them. Those who were over leveraged during covid never paid the price. Taxpayers foot the bill. Also try and buy land and build. The barriers involved and the prices incurred. It’s not an accident housing barely ever deflates here. People are poorer than ever but housing keeps rising? Really?
Please give me some centre right policy examples cause I can’t see any
He's talking garbage here: Australia has a lot land, but not hospitable. And you can't just magic up an industry, with all of the trades, skills, and equipment to triple it's output in a few years.
Over 50% of Australian land is arable. That would mean more than half of the country's landmass is suitable for habitation. Most of that land hasn't been released for development. Government control of land and poor housing policies are the root cause of this problem.
@@eat_ze_bugs Australians live on 0.22% of the country's landmass and 4% of it is arable. Also thanks for clarifying that 50% means half.
@@jogb9515 Wrong. 4% is the figure for temporary agricultural activity, it is land with the necessary infrastructure and approved by the state for crop production. Arable land statistics only show land that is being actively used for cultivating temporary crops, it says nothing about permanent crops/trees that don't need to be replanted every season nor does it indicate all the undeveloped potential arable land available throughout the country.
The estimated potential arable land in Australia in 2021 sits at around 47% and it could be higher if active crop development was allowed to be implemented in these areas. Australia is much more hospitable than you think.
Real estate is a great way to build wealth. But thats the problem. It is very bad. A lot of our generation wont have children because we cant afford a roof over our heads.
Every action has consequences. Australians picked high property prices over raising families.
Every action has consequences. Australians picked high property prices over raising families.
Sorry but this guy is clueless. Anyone buying property in Australia can simply look at the historical data to form a solid view of the market trends. We are a young country with a long way to go before we start seeing the same issues he is experiencing in America that form the basis for his opinion on property investing.
Blame the boomers.
This guy doesn’t know nothing about Aussie market 😂 there is no where to rent
The copium in the comments from boomers wanting to extend the housing crisis is hilarious.
Tick tock, gentlemen.
Economic Chutzpah is nothing new.
This guy doesn’t know much about the Australian housing market at all. Other than the fact that it’s extremely over priced.
Terrible advice. He fails to understand the political economy in Australia. The government will never let house prices fall, history has shown that.
Guy knows nothing about Australia.