Please do a show on the space companies that are going public through IPOs or SPACs within the next year or two, like Sierra Space, Voyager Space, Firefly Space, etc.
I've been wanting to but it's frustrating knowing you can't actually invest in them yet. Still, if you are interested I'd be happy to put something together.
RKLB - 50 billion market cap in 5-10 years. Largely supported by the fact that they'll have capable launch vehicle with reusability, multiple launch sites. Quite major part of the company is involved heavily in satellite/space vehicle technologies and they keep investing in it - the market for satellites is just going to grow, including satellites and probes that are not going to orbit Earth. LUNR - 10 to 20 billion market cap in 5-10 years. If they're not bought out sooner, they'll likely be dominant operator in private industry providing solutions to get robots (or humans) on other planetary bodies in our solar system. Think building outposts and mining on Moon, Mars and asteroids.
@@daveginvesting Yeah, but it's nice bit of history if LUNR keeps the ticker as is, even if they start eventually build stuff for other than Moon missions. It's quite amazing to think that SpaceX is valued at $180 billion and how similar they are to RKLB. I don't believe much of the valuation on SpaceX is based on the Starship as all Boca Chica operations at this point are pretty much a money sink as the factories and launch sites there are being developed alongside the Starship itself, that's still heavily in development stage. Most of the value likely is on Falcon 9's track record, how well they've managed to reuse the boosters and Starlink. Of course a lot of the expectations on RKLB's 50 billion dollar valuation within next decade is that satellite business is going to globally grow almost exponentially (which is going to rapidly grow no matter what) and Neutron will be huge success, and likely replacing Electron completely, so they can focus on operating only one launch vehicle efficiently and cut cost that way also (although there's some advantage to operate two launch vehicles).
Nice to see you talking about Redwire, Everyone talks about printing organs, and pil-box, no one talks about the other parts of the business like Structures. The deal they have with X-Bow is very interesting. And the newly introduced VELO orbital Drones Phantom and Sabre.
@@daveginvesting How much do we know about the over all space market? Right now it's all military, and China and they seem very interested. Way back when the space market was tv, now it data, soon it will be space drugs. Pick your slice 😁
Basically agreed with what you said on: RKLB, PL, MDA. What I could use some help understand is, why aren’t SPIR and BKSY doing any better than they are? I would have thought, especially with their national security and related applications, they’d be doing a lot better than they are. If you were ever in a mood to do a dive on the pair of them in the future I think it would be interesting and helpful. - Dave Huntsman
In my opinion, EO (Earth Observation) services is a saturated market with many players. Under served is launch with only SpaceX and Rocket Lab (RKLB) launching regularly in 2024. More launchers to come in 2025 and 2026.
Yeah the demand for EO from the commercial side hasn't been as high as I expected. Spire still did have a solid run this year but I would need to research blacksky more.
@@daveginvesting For a while in 2023 I owned BKSY with high hopes. But even though they could raise money and score deals, they kept sinking. Got rid of them at $1.30, for more RKLB.
Nice. Own RKLB, sold LUNR when they failed to turn on rangefinder interlock, which was responsible for that less than nominal (crash imo) landing. On the other hand fail lead to heroic last minute over space software update to repurpose different rangefinder... I think I believe it. I like MDA Space👀, heck of a history with that Canadarm.
Hi Dave, what are the financial benefits for a Venus Centric focused Rocket Lab? Also, would Rocket Lab use Electron to send a single Astronaut to LEO destination? Also, will Neutron be certified for Human Flights in the future, maybe passenger services for two?
The Venus mission is mostly a padding project with limited financial benefit to be honest. If it's successful could give them a lot of good press and drive more demand though. The single astronaut thing I don't think will ever happen.
And people... If you invest in space. Dont expect fast insane returns. Expect to be rewarded in the long term. 10 to 20 years. Enjoy the ride... Flight...
I would not lock myself in like that. Prudent selling high, then buying back low the same stock, is how I build my number of shares over time, for free. (without adding new funds).
@@ArtTaggerr-223 . You are right, taxes must be paid on REALIZED gains. But the tax bill comes out of your GAIN, free money, other people's money, in effect. I have found that in my case, the tax turns out to be a fair, SMALLER part of the gain, than the larger part I get to keep. It is the price of a ticket to win, is the way I look at it.
@@Vacra_Graha Regardless, whatever you lose in taxes, is a loss of buying back shares. It’s a big gamble in hopes to buy back cheap enough to make it worth while, vs. DCA.
@@ArtTaggerr-223 . Sure, I must know my favorite stock, constantly watching how it behaves. Do research and watch for news. You can't sit back. Have to be vigilant for the right peak or dip. That's how I've built my buying power over the years. Paid the taxes and had more shares of my favorite company than I had before. I know of no stock that does not go up and down. Sure, I often sell too soon, the price going higher, or buy to soon, the price going lower. And yes, get stuck sometimes in the red below my cost-bases. But as long as I work with good stocks, they always rise again, and I'm green again. I've waited as much as 18 months to go green on a play (Covid / Russian invasion). But these days my buying power is such that I can do long plays, holding shares longer than a year, and take advantage of the lower tax rate when I sell, to buy back on the dip.
Private equity took Maxtar from public to private in ?2023? How important, and possibly detrimental, a competitor is the private Maxtar to the public companies offering earth "observation" services?
Maxar has had major struggles lately but at least legion is finally launching. It's a shame we don't have them as a more mature space company to compare with.
I started out with the XAR aerospace fund which has done really well. It holds Rocket Lab, but the company looks to have a solid future so I've invested in them individually too.
Hi Dave Did you read the last article from the New York times. The article is name : Elon Musk Dominates Space Launch. Rivals Are Calling Foul It is a nice article and would make for a interesting conversation...
Good stuff Dave. I'm curious if Blacksky might turn a corner in the next year or two. They are still very far from profitable but they seem to get a lot of government contract love and they are continuing to launch infrastructure into orbit. Interested to see where they go along with Spire and PlanetLabs.
Yeah I need to do a deeper dive on them. It does seem the demand for EO in general hasn't been quite as strong as predicted but it's still a nice little market.
I only disagree with SPIR on your list for the simple reason that i have been following this company since the SPAC and know the history a little bit. They are also the only Space SPAC that i have sold at a loss for several reasons. In my opinion this is the most pump and dump one of all current publicly traded space companies. They change their story regularily, during the hype crypto years it was crypto in space while now it is AI with Nvidia. They did a reverse Split 1 for 8 to cover up the terrible performance of the stock since the spac. Would not touch this company ever again and do not trust management.
Dave, you screwed up on SPIR (which I owned): the “rise” in stock price you cited was NOT a rise- the stock had plummeted so much they were forced to do a reverse stock split! It’s NOT been a ‘good 2024’ for the stock. - Dave Huntsman
He is looking at split ajusted price. Before the 8 to 1 reverse split on August 31st, the price was around 55 cents. After the split $4.45. Today 9$. $3.50 was back at the end of October, not really in 2024...However, there has been ups and down since then.
Before we get carried away with praise, lets be clear where the rubber hits the road, in the emerging US (and Canada) Commercial Space Economy in 2024, LAUNCH LAUNCH LAUNCH, and who is doing nearly ALL the work, SpaceX SpaceX SpaceX, with a LITTLE BIT of help from Rocket Lab (their LAUNCH having dwindled to only ~26% of their business (Q1 2024 call), at which time NEUTRON's scrapped timeline to orbit was announced. With LAUNCH demand heavier than ever, both from Government and Industry. Share holders of the only public LAUNCH stock RKLB is suppose to be happy about that?! Sing praises and say nothing?!. That is not how America (or Canada) can be made great again. Here is why: Fact is, NO Space Services vehicle, NO Constellation or Space Station module, NO matter how wonderful, gets off Earth's surface to orbit without a rocket LAUNCH service. In the USA today (and Canada and EU), in 2024, ALL Commercial LAUNCH and most of US Government LAUNCH is done by SpaceX's one rocket, FALCON 9 s, in the medium lift class, AND in the small-lift demand with TRANSPORTER and BANDWAGON RIDESHARE busses, with a LITTLE BIT of help from from Rocket Lab's small-lift help ELECTRON. SpaceX FALCON HEAVY picks up the occasionally needed heavy-lift. (For now, until ARIANE 6 flies again. Canada Gov. has had no choice but to use SpaceX, and ESA and the EU also,) So lets not poo poo Firefly's ANTARES 330 MLV medium-lift rocket (2025), and their ALPHA small lift rocket (2024), and other coming launchers in 2025 and 2026. They will greatly help the US, CAN, and EU Commercial Economies' launch bottle-neck to Space. And investors will have more than only one Launcher to invest in, with new IPO's likely.
PL is probably among the worst space stocks out there! They need to 4x their revenue just to break even, there operating expenses are higher than their sales, and they are not even growing. That to me is a slow moving train wreck.
Please do a show on the space companies that are going public through IPOs or SPACs within the next year or two, like Sierra Space, Voyager Space, Firefly Space, etc.
I've been wanting to but it's frustrating knowing you can't actually invest in them yet. Still, if you are interested I'd be happy to put something together.
What about BlackSky Technology (BKSY)?
Thanks!
Thanks Nick!!
Appreciate ! 🎉
Thanks mate!
Off to a nice start in RKLB, and nibbling at some Redwire, thanks for the update Dave 😊😊
Nice!
im on the Redwire ship, see u all in orbit, i think most of these companies will do great :)
RKLB - 50 billion market cap in 5-10 years. Largely supported by the fact that they'll have capable launch vehicle with reusability, multiple launch sites. Quite major part of the company is involved heavily in satellite/space vehicle technologies and they keep investing in it - the market for satellites is just going to grow, including satellites and probes that are not going to orbit Earth.
LUNR - 10 to 20 billion market cap in 5-10 years. If they're not bought out sooner, they'll likely be dominant operator in private industry providing solutions to get robots (or humans) on other planetary bodies in our solar system. Think building outposts and mining on Moon, Mars and asteroids.
Hope so. I feel like LUNR doesn't need to just limit themselves to the moon though, they made need to change the ticker eventually 😃
LUNR will be either bankrupt or bought out in 5 years
@@daveginvesting Yeah, but it's nice bit of history if LUNR keeps the ticker as is, even if they start eventually build stuff for other than Moon missions.
It's quite amazing to think that SpaceX is valued at $180 billion and how similar they are to RKLB. I don't believe much of the valuation on SpaceX is based on the Starship as all Boca Chica operations at this point are pretty much a money sink as the factories and launch sites there are being developed alongside the Starship itself, that's still heavily in development stage. Most of the value likely is on Falcon 9's track record, how well they've managed to reuse the boosters and Starlink.
Of course a lot of the expectations on RKLB's 50 billion dollar valuation within next decade is that satellite business is going to globally grow almost exponentially (which is going to rapidly grow no matter what) and Neutron will be huge success, and likely replacing Electron completely, so they can focus on operating only one launch vehicle efficiently and cut cost that way also (although there's some advantage to operate two launch vehicles).
Nice to see you talking about Redwire, Everyone talks about printing organs, and pil-box, no one talks about the other parts of the business like Structures. The deal they have with X-Bow is very interesting. And the newly introduced VELO orbital Drones Phantom and Sabre.
Yep I saw those announcements but I admit I don't know the market size for vleo very well. Their roll out solar is also quite impressive.
@@daveginvesting How much do we know about the over all space market? Right now it's all military, and China and they seem very interested. Way back when the space market was tv, now it data, soon it will be space drugs. Pick your slice 😁
Basically agreed with what you said on: RKLB, PL, MDA. What I could use some help understand is, why aren’t SPIR and BKSY doing any better than they are? I would have thought, especially with their national security and related applications, they’d be doing a lot better than they are. If you were ever in a mood to do a dive on the pair of them in the future I think it would be interesting and helpful. - Dave Huntsman
In my opinion, EO (Earth Observation) services is a saturated market with many players. Under served is launch with only SpaceX and Rocket Lab (RKLB) launching regularly in 2024. More launchers to come in 2025 and 2026.
Yeah the demand for EO from the commercial side hasn't been as high as I expected. Spire still did have a solid run this year but I would need to research blacksky more.
@@daveginvesting For a while in 2023 I owned BKSY with high hopes. But even though they could raise money and score deals, they kept sinking. Got rid of them at $1.30, for more RKLB.
This video has aged well.
it will age even better in 2025.
Excellent video. Additionally I like to ask you to add the criteria by the timing of which will be profitable first.
Nice. Own RKLB, sold LUNR when they failed to turn on rangefinder interlock, which was responsible for that less than nominal (crash imo) landing. On the other hand fail lead to heroic last minute over space software update to repurpose different rangefinder... I think I believe it.
I like MDA Space👀, heck of a history with that Canadarm.
Yeah that was a rough failure but otherwise I think LUNR performed decently and showed some good troubleshooting!
Hi Dave, what are the financial benefits for a Venus Centric focused Rocket Lab?
Also, would Rocket Lab use Electron to send a single Astronaut to LEO destination?
Also, will Neutron be certified for Human Flights in the future, maybe passenger services for two?
The Venus mission is mostly a padding project with limited financial benefit to be honest. If it's successful could give them a lot of good press and drive more demand though. The single astronaut thing I don't think will ever happen.
And people... If you invest in space. Dont expect fast insane returns. Expect to be rewarded in the long term. 10 to 20 years. Enjoy the ride... Flight...
I would not lock myself in like that. Prudent selling high, then buying back low the same stock, is how I build my number of shares over time, for free. (without adding new funds).
@@Vacra_GrahaMost people have to pay tax when selling for profit, which defeats the attempt of attaining supposed free shares.
@@ArtTaggerr-223 . You are right, taxes must be paid on REALIZED gains. But the tax bill comes out of your GAIN, free money, other people's money, in effect. I have found that in my case, the tax turns out to be a fair, SMALLER part of the gain, than the larger part I get to keep. It is the price of a ticket to win, is the way I look at it.
@@Vacra_Graha Regardless, whatever you lose in taxes, is a loss of buying back shares. It’s a big gamble in hopes to buy back cheap enough to make it worth while, vs. DCA.
@@ArtTaggerr-223 . Sure, I must know my favorite stock, constantly watching how it behaves. Do research and watch for news. You can't sit back. Have to be vigilant for the right peak or dip. That's how I've built my buying power over the years. Paid the taxes and had more shares of my favorite company than I had before. I know of no stock that does not go up and down. Sure, I often sell too soon, the price going higher, or buy to soon, the price going lower. And yes, get stuck sometimes in the red below my cost-bases. But as long as I work with good stocks, they always rise again, and I'm green again. I've waited as much as 18 months to go green on a play (Covid / Russian invasion). But these days my buying power is such that I can do long plays, holding shares longer than a year, and take advantage of the lower tax rate when I sell, to buy back on the dip.
Private equity took Maxtar from public to private in ?2023?
How important, and possibly detrimental, a competitor is the private Maxtar to the public companies offering earth "observation" services?
Maxar has had major struggles lately but at least legion is finally launching. It's a shame we don't have them as a more mature space company to compare with.
MDA higher up?
Other than RL they are not in any particular order.
I started out with the XAR aerospace fund which has done really well. It holds Rocket Lab, but the company looks to have a solid future so I've invested in them individually too.
Glad to hear you've done well on them, I'll have to check out their holdings.
Hi Dave
Did you read the last article from the New York times. The article is name : Elon Musk Dominates Space Launch. Rivals Are Calling Foul
It is a nice article and would make for a interesting conversation...
Good stuff Dave. I'm curious if Blacksky might turn a corner in the next year or two. They are still very far from profitable but they seem to get a lot of government contract love and they are continuing to launch infrastructure into orbit. Interested to see where they go along with Spire and PlanetLabs.
Yeah I need to do a deeper dive on them. It does seem the demand for EO in general hasn't been quite as strong as predicted but it's still a nice little market.
❤️
Thanks Parth!
Intuitive Machines 🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳
Dave still showing no love to ASTS, even after the AT&T deal makes Johnny Hotsauce sad.
Sorry bud, I need to see the revenues! Their tech is impressive though, no doubt about that.
Good job Dave 👍✌️
Thanks
RKLB🚀. Best deal right now imho
My pick would be only two, first RDW (valuation + growth), second RKLB (growth).
The other ones can be included only when they show signs of strong growth.
MD, eh? ;-)
oh 🇨🇦, never stop being you! :)
🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦
The DG index URL just takes you to a blacksky chart
Darn! Guess they only save on my browser then
I think you should include ARKX. You know, as soon as SpaceX does go public Cathy Woods will scoup up a lot, and put it in ARKX.
I only disagree with SPIR on your list for the simple reason that i have been following this company since the SPAC and know the history a little bit. They are also the only Space SPAC that i have sold at a loss for several reasons. In my opinion this is the most pump and dump one of all current publicly traded space companies. They change their story regularily, during the hype crypto years it was crypto in space while now it is AI with Nvidia. They did a reverse Split 1 for 8 to cover up the terrible performance of the stock since the spac. Would not touch this company ever again and do not trust management.
Seems like they have been making strides toward profitability of Late but I understand your position.
Dave, you screwed up on SPIR (which I owned): the “rise” in stock price you cited was NOT a rise- the stock had plummeted so much they were forced to do a reverse stock split! It’s NOT been a ‘good 2024’ for the stock. - Dave Huntsman
He is looking at split ajusted price. Before the 8 to 1 reverse split on August 31st, the price was around 55 cents. After the split $4.45. Today 9$. $3.50 was back at the end of October, not really in 2024...However, there has been ups and down since then.
Thanks for clarifying that!
ASTS would be in the top three IMO, providing its successful. There’s $$$$$ to be made in transportation back to Earth.
That’s not what ASTS does 😂
@@mahernajjar1255 My big blunder.
Before we get carried away with praise, lets be clear where the rubber hits the road, in the emerging US (and Canada) Commercial Space Economy in 2024, LAUNCH LAUNCH LAUNCH, and who is doing nearly ALL the work, SpaceX SpaceX SpaceX, with a LITTLE BIT of help from Rocket Lab (their LAUNCH having dwindled to only ~26% of their business (Q1 2024 call), at which time NEUTRON's scrapped timeline to orbit was announced. With LAUNCH demand heavier than ever, both from Government and Industry. Share holders of the only public LAUNCH stock RKLB is suppose to be happy about that?! Sing praises and say nothing?!. That is not how America (or Canada) can be made great again.
Here is why: Fact is, NO Space Services vehicle, NO Constellation or Space Station module, NO matter how wonderful, gets off Earth's surface to orbit without a rocket LAUNCH service. In the USA today (and Canada and EU), in 2024, ALL Commercial LAUNCH and most of US Government LAUNCH is done by SpaceX's one rocket, FALCON 9 s, in the medium lift class, AND in the small-lift demand with TRANSPORTER and BANDWAGON RIDESHARE busses, with a LITTLE BIT of help from from Rocket Lab's small-lift help ELECTRON. SpaceX FALCON HEAVY picks up the occasionally needed heavy-lift.
(For now, until ARIANE 6 flies again. Canada Gov. has had no choice but to use SpaceX, and ESA and the EU also,)
So lets not poo poo Firefly's ANTARES 330 MLV medium-lift rocket (2025), and their ALPHA small lift rocket (2024), and other coming launchers in 2025 and 2026. They will greatly help the US, CAN, and EU Commercial Economies' launch bottle-neck to Space. And investors will have more than only one Launcher to invest in, with new IPO's likely.
PL is probably among the worst space stocks out there! They need to 4x their revenue just to break even, there operating expenses are higher than their sales, and they are not even growing. That to me is a slow moving train wreck.
#1, #2, #3 and #6 in my wallet
Wow, nice.
Be aware of the name Tim Allatore. He sets up new companies and sells shares and then goes bankrupt time after time. He is a fraud. For years now.
May 28 2024. Just in, SEC filing #4. Adam Spicer sells 63,529 shares of RKLB @ $4.217 per share.