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Your mic are distorting a bit, you need to lower record volume a bit. It happens before. Maybe there are a digital filtering think that can set the right volume each time. Thanks for your updates and welcome to Europe! /Sweden
I'm reminded of a law of biology: "Under carefully controlled conditions of temperature, lighting, diet, and so on, the organisms will do what they damn well want."
Hello Shawn, Not hazarding any kind of forecast is a safe thing, but it does seem like the volcanic system "may" be slowing. Perhaps an eruption could happen in April. The interview with Amanda Jo clearly presents the personal anxiety the people on the peninsula experience. Thanks for your videos.
"perhaps an eruption could happen in April" aged like fine milk xD Anyways, I still very much agree with your opinion. The personal anxiety of the people on the peninsula is pretty clear to me as well
Shawn, thanks again for another terrific program. I so much appreciate your keeping us updated and educating us about volcanism, etc. There was an article today on The Seattle Times about another geologist that made me think of you - Rick Zentner. He teaches geology at Central Washington University in Ellensburg, and I thought you and he should connect. You seem to have a lot of the same charisma and love of sharing your knowledge with us ordinary folks. Maybe you should give him a shout. 😊
Hi Shawn, thanks for the update and the clarification on the differences of opinion. I rather believe the Þorvaldur and IMO version. I also think that the linear suggestion of the end of the event proposed is too "easy" (to be true 😊). Have a nice time
Thanks Shawn, for commenting the different articles. I was wondering why a geophysician, a geologist and a vulcanologist take the same event but come to different conclusions. 😊
Shawn, I wonder if we can compare magma to glass making where the hot, molten material (silica based) can be very fluid or when cooled slightly is still ductile or flexible, but really slows down flow.
Not at my best in evening here in 🇬🇧 so watched it over breakfast Saturday. You are so right to be careful about people extrapolating from limited data. Statistically suspect!
Thank you for the updates, the mystery of things to come is fascinating. In the meantime looking forward to your next lot of updates to come while you're away have a great time, we'll be here when you get back.😊
Thanks for another great update! Fair and data driven, as always and much appreciated! Looking forward to your upcoming interview tomorrow. Have a great trip to Europe, safe travels!
With that linear increase in elevation I don't think we can tell *anything* about future activity, including any termination of that activity. When I see that straight-line increase in a well buildup I assume there's a deep orifice of some sort (or structures that approximate the behavior of an orifice) and there's a 'critical flow' condition across that orifice. That means that the pressure in the source reservoir behind the orifice is not receiving any feedback from downstream (downstream = the magma accumulation that's pushing Svartsengi upward). If the upward deformation trend were to show a bend downwards or a gradual leveling out, that would mean that the source is seeing that downstream pressure and flow across the orifice is gradually being held back by that pressure in addition to the restricting orifice. That would tell us something about the source reservoir, its pressure and/or volume. The thing about critical flow is that there's nothing about the downstream flow or pressure that tells us anything about the source pressure or volume. Again, this is the way gas and liquid reservoirs act, which might be an accurate analog to deep (way deep) magma reservoirs. But it just as easily might not for all I know. If it is an accurate comparison, then there's nothing we can tell from the behavior of the upper crust around Svartsengi about future behavior, certainly not when activity will end.
If magma infusion is slow and steady enough, is it possible that it doesn't exceed the elasticity of the ground above it and thus no cracks form to let the magma spew out?
The headline-grabbing projection only works with the last ‘data point’ they used showing include dropping to c300k m3/day. No data was provided to back that up & the IMO were absolutely clear their data and models don’t show that. Their own graph shows the most recent inflow rate as exactly 400k m3/ day as it has been since January. Imagine what those two esteemed profs will have to say if this dynamic system, as you aptly describe it Shawn, suddenly shows an uptick in inflow again? Would they update their graph to show a predicted end in about 2030?! Thanks for your thoughtful video once again.
Checking in from Minnesota. It’s hard to imagine this could be a linear system, just as you said. I’m just learning about geology, but is anything in geology a reliably linear system? Seems more like chaos theory would apply. One happenstance small change could affect the entire system.
I thiink you nailed it with Forecast rather than prediction. Prediction is a hard statement while forecast is softer and more clearly a projection of current trends and knowledge. Hydraulic systems are bound by laws of physics. Adding fluid volume to a container without an expansion raises the pressure inside the container. And generally containers have a limit to the pressure they can contain. Plus the fact that fluids under pressure always find the weakest pathway to release means that we have no clue where it goes next. We can make observations about what it has done in the past but like the stock markets, past behavior is no guarantee of future events. Time will tell and we are not in control. In some ways a forecast is an "educated guess", especially when most of the data is inferred rather than observed.
Thank you. An excellent, accessible summary of the issues with "predictions". IMO continues to be the most reliable source of data and expectations. :)
@shawnwillsey thank you for this clear update and rational analysis of the situation, much appreciated as usual! :) Gotta be careful with "predictions" yes ;) The future remains unknown...
You're so good about keeping us up with Icelandic trends, and real data. Thank you! I imagine, while traveling, you'll be checking building materials as well as surficial structures. 👌🏼
Nice update looking through the seismic and GPS data. Likewise,, good summary of the conflicting predictions of the future of this system. I agree, this system will run its course as have other eruptive events on the Island. But the where and when remain unknowns. The not-knowing certainly makes it hard on the local residents and authorities. We are all learning lots being watchful. Thank you
Thank you! I remember Gylfi over at Just Icelandic saying before the first of these most recent eruptions that þorvaldur þórðarson, on the whole, tends to be the most reliable whether he agrees with the rest or not. And FWIW that first eruption happened pretty much exactly where he expected it to happen (not as the only person, but irc the Met Office considered another scenario to be more likely at that point). Also, I guess that some level of tension between academic freedom and the Met Office's public safety responsibilities is unavoidable with something as new and unknown - in many ways - as this.
Reporters want a story that's simple, definite and straightforward for their readers. In science, you only have opinions when data is limited, so reporters can be seen trying to pin the scientists down, when all the scientists can legitimately say is things like "well, it could go this way, or it could go that way, nobody really knows, but I'm inclined to think it might go that way". So like the reporter here, they scramble around and come up with "believe this guy because he was right 10 years ago in a completely different situation". This is understandable, and it's better than exaggerating and catastrophizing to get attention, but it's unfortunate. Reporters too often convert "well, maybe" into "scientist claims", and this causes comment sections full of "scientists don't know anything, they only think they do" and "my ignorant opinion, including fringe and pseudo science, is better than theirs, and I didn't need a degree to come up with it".
I HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT THE GRAPHS OF MOVEMENT E/W, N/S, AND UP/DOWN. THE GRAPHS SHOW ABOUT 3-4 MONTHS OF DATA. IF YOU EXTRAPOLATE BACK IN TIME, WOULD THOSE DATA POINTS ( ESP THE UP DOWN) START MUCH LOWER DOWN IN THE GRAPH, AND EXTRAPOLATING IN THE FUTURE JUST CONTINUE TO SHOW UPWARD MOVEMENT? AT WHAT POINT IS UP ENOUGH? IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE UPLIFT CAN CONTINUE INDEFINITELY….OR DOES IT REACH A POINT WHERE TOTAL EXPLOSION HAPPENS.
No need to extrapolate back in time; for key locations we have the actual historical data. The Met Office has been collecting data all over Iceland for some time. Go to the Met Office web page, surf to the earthquake tab, click on the GPS link, and then select a particular GPS sensor. The first thing you will see is three graphs (height, N/S, E/W movements) covering the last few months. That's one of four tabs. Other tabs include more lead time. At the very bottom of the graphs you can click on some Icelandic text to enlarge the graphs.
I’m watching this for the first time on March 24, and it’s so interesting that an eruption happened the very next day after the controversy! Listening to all the opinions and assertions and counter-assertions makes me realize how humans need to feel a sense of control over the environment or at least over knowledge of the environment. And then nature takes its course with no regard to our predictions. (Although the volcano gods must have listened to your wishes, Shawn, about the timing of this latest event.) And here we are, 9 days later, with magma still pouring out of several vents. I hope you have a few minutes to watch some of the drone flights over the magnificent river of lava.
To what extent should we expect prolonged injection of magma into this reservoir to heat up and increase the ductility of the surrounding rock? Could it just be that the holding capacity has increased and it takes more magma to reach the necessary pressures for magma to run out into these conduits?
I respectfully disagree with that scientist prediction. There is no real way to know how much magma will be produced. I have never heard of any situation where anyone could know for sure know when a magmatic system will end.
you can get a rought idea of how much there is by the area of vertical inflation creating a rough volume area. is it perfect? no. is the eruption over? definitely not considering how eratic the eruptions were further to the north east around Fagradalsfjall. since we've never had an eruption sequence like this in modern times to research as it's happening it's a whole lot of hypothesizing and waiting. that being said something definitely changed after the earthquake swarm on March 2nd happened, but only time will tell what the overall effect of it was.
I was right about something in 2014, doesn't mean I'll be right about something a decade later. Besides mother nature has a habit of teaching us humility when we think we can control what will or predict " it" happens.
My biggest problem is we have no idea how much magma will be generated in this eruption sequence. Rift boundaries are tough enough to predict let alone adding the mantle plume as a sort of wild card. Who knows how much magma will be produced during this period of decompression melting. There may be a lot of crust melted or there may not be so much. It seems so far the systems has not generated too much magma, but that certainly can change. @@sirmonkey1985
Thanks for another brilliant update. I go for the Conservative approach as well, I’d seen some headline that it was coming to an end blah blah, now I see that this is probably not true. For the likes of me, I’m trusting the science as presented here. I understand that if the magma is on the move to another area that there would be seismic activity to prove this. So, we continue to wait & see what happens 🤷♀️
Appreciate your posts on this. Funny how much anxiety the unknown generates, and of course having a rational sane educated viewpoint puts balm on the waters - or magma.
Could there actually be the same amount of magma flow but much has travelled offshore where there has been no monitoring apparent/declared with a possibility of an offshore eruption. What, if any attempts, are being made to monitor offshore inflation? Many significant earthquakes have featured offshore and maybe magma is at much deeper levels there but with possibility of a weakness evolving to allow magma to eventually reach the surface; in that case seabed. I agree that it is not a predictable situation especially as much data is absent or conjectural rather than actual.
Absolutely right jimmillar Mother Nature rules. All these experts whose level of knowledge i admire have given their opinion as to when the next eruption will take place, if at all. Nature is keeping us guessing.
Interesting article in the latest issue of Science Magazine. “Fracturing and tectonic stress drive ultrarapid magma flow into dikes” . Discusses dike formation under Grindavik in Nov. 2023.
Yes, it is confusing but it’s very important for the public and the scientists to remember that there are multiple reasonable ways to look at the data and reasonable people can differ. This has been lost in the past several years since the pandemic when official story lines were “the science says”… to push policy when clearly there was no definitive answer - as is often the case.
it is not mother nature. It is simply the motion of plates of the crust moving. Where they are being created is obviously significant and that is here. There are therefore many alternative theories as we do not know the conditions deep down.
I hope you don't mind this comment that has nothing to do with your topic today. But at the beginning of the video, through 2:27 there is a number sequence at the bottom of the screen 6, 28 496, ? Well the next number is 8,128 followed by 33,550,336. For anyone that would actually care that is.
I get it, that people want s.o. to predict the future. But that is not how science works, sadly! By all I learned on this channel I am quite sure, that if magma would move to a new place it wouldn't go unnoticed. So I'll just keep watching .
![SAFEPLANET - ดาวเคราะห์ [ THE PLANET ]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/4X1XL3I_k3c/mqdefault.jpg)
Please be sure to LIKE and SUBSCRIBE. You can support my educational videos by clicking on the "Thanks" button just above (right of Like button) or by going here: www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=EWUSLG3GBS5W8
Your mic are distorting a bit, you need to lower record volume a bit. It happens before. Maybe there are a digital filtering think that can set the right volume each time. Thanks for your updates and welcome to Europe! /Sweden
Thanks Shawn. We appreciate you, too! 🙂👍
I'm reminded of a law of biology: "Under carefully controlled conditions of temperature, lighting, diet, and so on, the organisms will do what they damn well want."
apparently Mother Nature really is in charge, after all
Thanks for taking the time for this update, Professor. Look forward to your latest interview.
Go see him on Sci Show today.
Hello Shawn, Not hazarding any kind of forecast is a safe thing, but it does seem like the volcanic system "may" be slowing. Perhaps an eruption could happen in April. The interview with Amanda Jo clearly presents the personal anxiety the people on the peninsula experience. Thanks for your videos.
The inflation is continuing as usual though so there’s no sign it’s slowing down at all it’s just changing how it’s moving underground
"perhaps an eruption could happen in April" aged like fine milk xD
Anyways, I still very much agree with your opinion. The personal anxiety of the people on the peninsula is pretty clear to me as well
Shawn, thanks again for another terrific program. I so much appreciate your keeping us updated and educating us about volcanism, etc.
There was an article today on The Seattle Times about another geologist that made me think of you - Rick Zentner. He teaches geology at Central Washington University in Ellensburg, and I thought you and he should connect. You seem to have a lot of the same charisma and love of sharing your knowledge with us ordinary folks. Maybe you should give him a shout. 😊
Nick Zentner and he did an interview with him on this channel and Nick's channel (check the live streams).
Zentner's TH-cam shows are terrific, especially the Northwest tectonic and glacial analysis.
they are both rock stars in geo-science education!
They've connected - see past sessions
Thank you from Cornwall UK
I just watched this video, then I moved onto SciShow...and there you were. Congrats on the collaboration. Great interview!! Cheers!
🎉hello from the UK 🇬🇧 🎉
Hi Shawn, thanks for the update and the clarification on the differences of opinion. I rather believe the Þorvaldur and IMO version. I also think that the linear suggestion of the end of the event proposed is too "easy" (to be true 😊). Have a nice time
Thanks Shawn for your as usual, honest and thorough explanation of the latest information.
Congrats on nearly 100k subscribers in a relatively short span of time! Have a great trip and stay safe.
Thanks Shawn, for commenting the different articles. I was wondering why a geophysician, a geologist and a vulcanologist take the same event but come to different conclusions. 😊
Hi Shawn. 5:50am Saturday here in Sydney.
Thx for your cautious, but still clear summary of the actual data and opinions. And soon: Welcome to Europe 😊
He's on Sci Show today. YT
Shawn, I wonder if we can compare magma to glass making where the hot, molten material (silica based) can be very fluid or when cooled slightly is still ductile or flexible, but really slows down flow.
Not at my best in evening here in 🇬🇧 so watched it over breakfast Saturday. You are so right to be careful about people extrapolating from limited data. Statistically suspect!
Thank you for the updates, the mystery of things to come is fascinating. In the meantime looking forward to your next lot of updates to come while you're away have a great time, we'll be here when you get back.😊
Thanks for another great update! Fair and data driven, as always and much appreciated! Looking forward to your upcoming interview tomorrow. Have a great trip to Europe, safe travels!
Good evening from Austria 🇦🇹❤
With that linear increase in elevation I don't think we can tell *anything* about future activity, including any termination of that activity. When I see that straight-line increase in a well buildup I assume there's a deep orifice of some sort (or structures that approximate the behavior of an orifice) and there's a 'critical flow' condition across that orifice. That means that the pressure in the source reservoir behind the orifice is not receiving any feedback from downstream (downstream = the magma accumulation that's pushing Svartsengi upward). If the upward deformation trend were to show a bend downwards or a gradual leveling out, that would mean that the source is seeing that downstream pressure and flow across the orifice is gradually being held back by that pressure in addition to the restricting orifice. That would tell us something about the source reservoir, its pressure and/or volume.
The thing about critical flow is that there's nothing about the downstream flow or pressure that tells us anything about the source pressure or volume. Again, this is the way gas and liquid reservoirs act, which might be an accurate analog to deep (way deep) magma reservoirs. But it just as easily might not for all I know. If it is an accurate comparison, then there's nothing we can tell from the behavior of the upper crust around Svartsengi about future behavior, certainly not when activity will end.
In short, the source is showing us a pretty constant flow rate... and nothing else.
If magma infusion is slow and steady enough, is it possible that it doesn't exceed the elasticity of the ground above it and thus no cracks form to let the magma spew out?
I found your channel when I was looking for informed coverage of the Grindavik events, and now I'm staying to learn a bit more about geology. Thanks!
Thanks for the informative update, and kudos for the use of the word "paucity". 😃
My ears perked up, too 😅
The headline-grabbing projection only works with the last ‘data point’ they used showing include dropping to c300k m3/day. No data was provided to back that up & the IMO were absolutely clear their data and models don’t show that. Their own graph shows the most recent inflow rate as exactly 400k m3/ day as it has been since January. Imagine what those two esteemed profs will have to say if this dynamic system, as you aptly describe it Shawn, suddenly shows an uptick in inflow again? Would they update their graph to show a predicted end in about 2030?! Thanks for your thoughtful video once again.
The Norwegian Volcanological Institute is actually based in the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland in Reykjavik.
It's a Google translate issue apparently.
From the northern part of Germany... Thank you for your update!
Great update Professor! Thanks so much!
Good afternoon from Santa Monica CA 🌴
And from Pasadena, CA... you have a SoCal community!
Thank you for the update Shawn.
Checking in from Minnesota. It’s hard to imagine this could be a linear system, just as you said. I’m just learning about geology, but is anything in geology a reliably linear system? Seems more like chaos theory would apply. One happenstance small change could affect the entire system.
Hello from California, Thank You!
Great update! The suspense to next eruption builds! 🌋
I thiink you nailed it with Forecast rather than prediction. Prediction is a hard statement while forecast is softer and more clearly a projection of current trends and knowledge. Hydraulic systems are bound by laws of physics. Adding fluid volume to a container without an expansion raises the pressure inside the container. And generally containers have a limit to the pressure they can contain. Plus the fact that fluids under pressure always find the weakest pathway to release means that we have no clue where it goes next. We can make observations about what it has done in the past but like the stock markets, past behavior is no guarantee of future events. Time will tell and we are not in control. In some ways a forecast is an "educated guess", especially when most of the data is inferred rather than observed.
Thank you for the informative update! always interesting and appreciated!
Hi all from GeoZack from New York
Thank you. An excellent, accessible summary of the issues with "predictions". IMO continues to be the most reliable source of data and expectations. :)
Agreed
Thank you for the update. ❤️
Thank you Shawn! This really helps clarify the different interpretations of the data.
@shawnwillsey thank you for this clear update and rational analysis of the situation, much appreciated as usual! :) Gotta be careful with "predictions" yes ;) The future remains unknown...
Another great update, and good pointing out of the limitations of prediction
You're so good about keeping us up with Icelandic trends, and real data. Thank you! I imagine, while traveling, you'll be checking building materials as well as surficial structures. 👌🏼
Nice update looking through the seismic and GPS data. Likewise,, good summary of the conflicting predictions of the future of this system. I agree, this system will run its course as have other eruptive events on the Island. But the where and when remain unknowns. The not-knowing certainly makes it hard on the local residents and authorities. We are all learning lots being watchful. Thank you
Shawn Willsey on Sci Show!!
I remember him back before he became a movie star!😊
Ah, It's finally out. Thanks for the notice.
th-cam.com/video/igyu1fxfSqQ/w-d-xo.html
@@shawnwillsey it should be good for your channel! 👍
Thanks Shawn, very informative and clear explanations as always! 😀👍
Thank you!
I remember Gylfi over at Just Icelandic saying before the first of these most recent eruptions that þorvaldur þórðarson, on the whole, tends to be the most reliable whether he agrees with the rest or not. And FWIW that first eruption happened pretty much exactly where he expected it to happen (not as the only person, but irc the Met Office considered another scenario to be more likely at that point).
Also, I guess that some level of tension between academic freedom and the Met Office's public safety responsibilities is unavoidable with something as new and unknown - in many ways - as this.
Thx Prof ✌🏻 from the Blue Ridge mtns in NC, USA.
Reporters want a story that's simple, definite and straightforward for their readers. In science, you only have opinions when data is limited, so reporters can be seen trying to pin the scientists down, when all the scientists can legitimately say is things like "well, it could go this way, or it could go that way, nobody really knows, but I'm inclined to think it might go that way". So like the reporter here, they scramble around and come up with "believe this guy because he was right 10 years ago in a completely different situation". This is understandable, and it's better than exaggerating and catastrophizing to get attention, but it's unfortunate. Reporters too often convert "well, maybe" into "scientist claims", and this causes comment sections full of "scientists don't know anything, they only think they do" and "my ignorant opinion, including fringe and pseudo science, is better than theirs, and I didn't need a degree to come up with it".
20:30 Linear is not the best fit for that curve. I'm with the Met Office.
Do the graph show harmonic tremors? Are the EQ Swarms harmonic?
Shawn, Congrats on being interviewed on the SciShow video!
Thanks Shawn great update. Clarifies a lot
I’ve just returned from Iceland - it’s bound to erupt now..😮
Thank you from a soggy Devon in the UK.
I HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT THE GRAPHS OF MOVEMENT E/W, N/S, AND UP/DOWN. THE GRAPHS SHOW ABOUT 3-4 MONTHS OF DATA. IF YOU EXTRAPOLATE BACK IN TIME, WOULD THOSE DATA POINTS ( ESP THE UP DOWN) START MUCH LOWER DOWN IN THE GRAPH, AND EXTRAPOLATING IN THE FUTURE JUST CONTINUE TO SHOW UPWARD MOVEMENT? AT WHAT POINT IS UP ENOUGH? IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE UPLIFT CAN CONTINUE INDEFINITELY….OR DOES IT REACH A POINT WHERE TOTAL EXPLOSION HAPPENS.
No need to extrapolate back in time; for key locations we have the actual historical data. The Met Office has been collecting data all over Iceland for some time. Go to the Met Office web page, surf to the earthquake tab, click on the GPS link, and then select a particular GPS sensor. The first thing you will see is three graphs (height, N/S, E/W movements) covering the last few months. That's one of four tabs. Other tabs include more lead time. At the very bottom of the graphs you can click on some Icelandic text to enlarge the graphs.
I’m watching this for the first time on March 24, and it’s so interesting that an eruption happened the very next day after the controversy! Listening to all the opinions and assertions and counter-assertions makes me realize how humans need to feel a sense of control over the environment or at least over knowledge of the environment. And then nature takes its course with no regard to our predictions. (Although the volcano gods must have listened to your wishes, Shawn, about the timing of this latest event.) And here we are, 9 days later, with magma still pouring out of several vents. I hope you have a few minutes to watch some of the drone flights over the magnificent river of lava.
I agree with you, Shawn.. confusing for public.. volcanic systems are definitely NOT linear!!
Thank you for this Professor!
Thanks and have a great trip!
To what extent should we expect prolonged injection of magma into this reservoir to heat up and increase the ductility of the surrounding rock? Could it just be that the holding capacity has increased and it takes more magma to reach the necessary pressures for magma to run out into these conduits?
Thank you Shawn.
thanks for the update
I respectfully disagree with that scientist prediction. There is no real way to know how much magma will be produced. I have never heard of any situation where anyone could know for sure know when a magmatic system will end.
you can get a rought idea of how much there is by the area of vertical inflation creating a rough volume area. is it perfect? no. is the eruption over? definitely not considering how eratic the eruptions were further to the north east around Fagradalsfjall. since we've never had an eruption sequence like this in modern times to research as it's happening it's a whole lot of hypothesizing and waiting. that being said something definitely changed after the earthquake swarm on March 2nd happened, but only time will tell what the overall effect of it was.
I was right about something in 2014, doesn't mean I'll be right about something a decade later. Besides mother nature has a habit of teaching us humility when we think we can control what will or predict " it" happens.
My biggest problem is we have no idea how much magma will be generated in this eruption sequence. Rift boundaries are tough enough to predict let alone adding the mantle plume as a sort of wild card. Who knows how much magma will be produced during this period of decompression melting. There may be a lot of crust melted or there may not be so much. It seems so far the systems has not generated too much magma, but that certainly can change.
@@sirmonkey1985
Congratulations for guest staring on SciShow !:-)
You should check out the Elbe Sandstone Mountains if you're in that area.
Thanks for another brilliant update. I go for the Conservative approach as well, I’d seen some headline that it was coming to an end blah blah, now I see that this is probably not true. For the likes of me, I’m trusting the science as presented here. I understand that if the magma is on the move to another area that there would be seismic activity to prove this. So, we continue to wait & see what happens 🤷♀️
Hello from The Netherlands
I had to laugh at "our good friend Þorvaldur Þórðarson". By now it feels like he is, right? :D
Thank you for the update and your analysis!
Hello from Maine
Shoutout to NCSU!
Hi Shawn, I love your Random ROadcuts, would be great if you could do a couple of those from Europe. What fun! Have a great vacation!
Hoping to. Stay tuned!
hello from Alabama
We should know who is more right in the not so distant future.
Hi From New Hampshire
Why would the weather affect the seismic activity?
I could be wrong but I think it’s connectivity with remote sensors and getting the signal with bad weather.
Appreciate your posts on this. Funny how much anxiety the unknown generates, and of course having a rational sane educated viewpoint puts balm on the waters - or magma.
Was in keflavik today, really bad weather!!!!
Texas checking in
Do you know if people are allowed back into Grindavik?
Yes, they are allowed to be there now.
Residents and businesses in town. No tourists…although they are showing up 😡.
Those linear extrapolations seem more indicative of engineers than scientist just saying.....
Could there actually be the same amount of magma flow but much has travelled offshore where there has been no monitoring apparent/declared with a possibility of an offshore eruption. What, if any attempts, are being made to monitor offshore inflation? Many significant earthquakes have featured offshore and maybe magma is at much deeper levels there but with possibility of a weakness evolving to allow magma to eventually reach the surface; in that case seabed. I agree that it is not a predictable situation especially as much data is absent or conjectural rather than actual.
Absolutely right jimmillar Mother Nature rules. All these experts whose level of knowledge i admire have given their opinion as to when the next eruption will take place, if at all. Nature is keeping us guessing.
Interesting article in the latest issue of Science Magazine. “Fracturing and tectonic stress drive ultrarapid magma flow into dikes” . Discusses dike formation under Grindavik in Nov. 2023.
My sister is in your class and she was just talking about volcanoes!
She was erupting with rock facts! LOL
Thanks
Thanks!
Much appreciated.
Thanx Shawn
Thanks.
Hello from sunny Seattle.
Yes, it is confusing but it’s very important for the public and the scientists to remember that there are multiple reasonable ways to look at the data and reasonable people can differ. This has been lost in the past several years since the pandemic when official story lines were “the science says”… to push policy when clearly there was no definitive answer - as is often the case.
Most of EQ ,besides the larger Volcanoes have been on the tip of the Peninsula.
The Met office has to be more conservative because as a government agency they are thinking more about people's safety.
it is not mother nature. It is simply the motion of plates of the crust moving. Where they are being created is obviously significant and that is here. There are therefore many alternative theories as we do not know the conditions deep down.
I hope you don't mind this comment that has nothing to do with your topic today. But at the beginning of the video, through 2:27 there is a number sequence at the bottom of the screen 6, 28 496, ? Well the next number is 8,128 followed by 33,550,336. For anyone that would actually care that is.
I get it, that people want s.o. to predict the future. But that is not how science works, sadly!
By all I learned on this channel I am quite sure, that if magma would move to a new place it wouldn't go unnoticed.
So I'll just keep watching .
Ty
The bookies should be taking bets and setting odds.
Scientist can express opinions all day long but lets not forget mother nature will have the final word when ,where and if there is another eruption!!!
Only time will tell the story. As long as inflation continues, there is strong chance of eruption, imo.
QUESTION Hi Prof. SHAWN - IF YOU HAVE A STOP OVER IN MUNICH GERMANY IN APRIL I WOULD BE GLAD TO PAY YOU A BEER.
Ah if only. No layovers in Germany. But maybe next time.