Ye agree. I think he meant the time invested in a strategy will improve your speed & quality running this strategy. So overall you have more chances to get the card rather than trying out multiple strategies with minimal time and effort.
Wrong, that is why complex statistics exist. You are 68% likely to have succeded a 1/4 roll by 4 attempts. 94% chance by 10 and by run 31 you are pretty much guaranteed to have been successful at least once.
TY man! i just dropped double apothecary !! just bought several hundret gildet scarabs for 40 divs to prepare alot of grinding but they dropped at the very beginning already lol
Great video. Detailed enough to convey the message while also packing many concepts into 19 minutes. Regarding the casino analogy, I have one bit to add: Even a player who is world class at every game in the casino will still earn more by sticking to one game. Why? Because you don't make money while walking from the poker table to the blackjack table. In PoE the walk from table to table is especially long since it involves buying sextants, scarabs, etc 🤣
a good video but thats not quite how odds work. if you fail 2 fractures on a 1 in 4 chance, the next one will not have improved odds. it will still be a 1 in 4 chance. if you fail 10 in a row, the 11th will still be a 1 in 4 chance.
Right, i believe I say that. You always have a 1 in 4 chance everytime... But you have to give it a chance to hit those 1 in 4 if that makes sense. But yes, you are correct, odds never change
Additional comment on probability. If the odds are 1 of 4 (25%), crafting with those odds 4 times is not 100% or near it: it's 68%. So you have to be careful with 'playing odds' when crafting. Odds of hitting 1 of 4 in 8 tries is 90~%. So yeah it might be cheaper to buy the fracture you want (or insert other craft thing here). The percentage chance to hit is deceiving, and it's why a lot of people gamble and can't understand why they aren't hitting: TLDR cause odds are not additive.
@@Sync_Oh The reason why odds work this way is every time you 'try again' you start from zero. you roll the dice on a 25% chance. There is no pity system in PoE where you build to a 'non fail' point (pity system like in Lost Ark for example). But again the majority of you video is pretty awesome dude. I learned a couple things, and I've played since beta. lol
Yeah that I understand. The odds are always the odds. But understand the game and the strategy will help you figure out which odds you want to play and whether the odds are worth or not. That was really the point I tried to make, it just didn’t come out quite that well. Appreciate you tho for real
@@Sync_Oh Odds are not odds and that is why complex statistics exist. The odds of hitting say a 1% drop chance, aka rolling 1 on a 100 sided dice is only a 95% chance of being succesful at hitting 1 by your 395th attempt. This is why ARPGs are talking about 1/1000 and 1/10000 chance odds on items. Due to the fact we are rolling the dice so many times by killing screens full of monsters. Now Magic find basically lowers the numerical range in which you have to roll that 1. So with MF instead of it being a 1-100 roll its now a 1-50 roll. Extreme example but that is normally how MF is coded.
@@Sync_Oh thanks! Just started playing this league so there are tons of things i dont know yet. Subbed also! Since I learned a lot from just this one video. :D
So question, maybe its just because i didnt hear it or didnt catch it. But would you suggest _ONLY_ running crimson temple (example) as a farm. Or do you consider the "same farm" with using crimson/city atlas connection as a reset for crimsom temple drops? Sorry if i didnt word this out properly :P
So it’s not about the map specifically. I personally like chasing money and div cards. So this strat allows a lot of those to drop. And the maps I have chosen are 80% crimson 20% cemetery. Your maps could be different depending on what cards or items you are looking for
This man has never taken a probability and statistics class in his life... lmao. While you may be correct regarding your PoE strategy, the casino analogy was ridiculous.
facts bro, been doing crimson temple for so long and still zero drop for me.. rng is rng, pretty much done with this map and i just go with maven writ/conqueror map farming.. ten times better and more fun
Not enough tbh. Dropped a mirror yesterday tho, gonna get the build ripping on stream tomorrow if you want to come check out the build and say what up. I stream here in YT
Man I've ran over 200 Crimson with 62 quantity and 100%+ Juiced maps. Still no Apothecary.. But I make hella good divs. Had over 10+ Seven years bad luck cards. @@Sync_Oh
almost the entire video is saying as if staying on the same thing would make the odds to get better, seems like my dude doesnt know how probability works
Seems that you didn’t much pay attention… practice the strat, be better at it. Or let me put it this way. You want to go pro in soccer, so to prepare. You change to a different sport each year. Football baseball basketball cricket swimming. What are your odds of going pro in soccer
In probability, the law of large numbers describes that your average outcome is more likely to be closer to the expected outcome with more and more iterations. Gotta grind it out.
Appreciate the content! Definitely helps us beginners! That being said... Quite a bit of bad logic and analogy to get the proper result. Being a table games employee, let me fix some of it. The odds are against you, so you are better off getting in and getting out. The longer you stay, the more likely your results get closer to the actual odds (not in your favor). This is why a fast farm speed is better than the more difficult content. Changing maps is more like changing tables (not game). Its like moving from one blackjack table to another. Modding difficult maps that you are built to do is like learning to card count and putting the odds in your favor. Those big difficult items to get are more like hitting one of the massive progressives at casinos. Super rare, but pretty much a crapshoot and doesn't really matter what you do.
Sorry, got interrupted before I finished... A lot of your thinking is based on improper gamblers mind. Playing "by the book" is still supposed to net you a loss in the long run. Think of it this way... Most people get up at some point during their play. It usually isn't enough for them to walk away. If it was, nearly every person would leave a winner.
Good to hear from you brother! Appreciate a perspective from someone from that world. But wouldn’t finishing a map and moving to another ( in the same strat) be the same as switching tables on the same game? That’s more my point
@CincoCeroCinco That is exactly what I was saying. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Maybe I misunderstood you as well. To reiterate the most important part. Thank you again for your content. Been looking for a video for basic map understanding. Would like to say, as a beginner, I did have to slow down the video to see which items you used. Chisels Orb of alchemy Vaal Orb -> charged compass (on unidentified) Sextants and scarabs Also... 9 days later and still a super fast response. Holy crap. Unreal! Easy sub for you!
@@spikepinto Hey thanks brother! Lesson learned fromthis video is I need to be a little more clear with my thoughts. You weren't the only one comfused by my logic hahaha
Map strats don't work because people are not running magic find. MF creep has gotten absurd and as a result, they have moved the drop tables up and up to accommodate the new values people are hitting. So mapping feels like absolute shit by comparison without MF.
@@Sync_Oh You mean all of the patch notes and dev interviews since Ritual where they talk about removing loot goblin rares, nerfing alters (espcially red), and the massive loot nerf in Sentinel? Like do you even read patch notes?
Hahahaha that’s what you’re referring to? Nerfing ritual, loot goblins (that almost solely benefited from MF), and the sentinel league mechanic? Come on buddy
@@Sync_Oh Read what I wrote again, SINCE RITUAL LEAGUE, FFS they came out and had to clarify that lowering basic currency drop rate was intentional during Sentinel league including from alters.
Dude, your logic about focusing on a single start at the time is so wrong. If you already ran 50 maps and didn't drop an Apothecary, leaving to do something else doesn't mean that you waisted the 50 map, because it already didn't drop - you still have a chance of 1/100 each map you will run from now on. Same for the casino - switching casino games won't make you win or loose more. The only difference and what will make it worth while to run the same strat for a long time is that you have less downtime between maps and you are focused on doing what you are doing instead of changing your atlas passives and trading for mapping materials. I do think it's better to be focused, but not at all for the reasons you gave.
well... and practice and efficiency... be better at your strat. Being successful in the casino isnt only about luck. It's also about knowing the game right? How do you learnt he game? By spending time playing it. In all honesty tho, I ran 100 straight maps and it was awful, I think you should switch it up and run other things. But dont stop running your strat right away if you dont get what you want instantly is all i am saying my man
![[3.24] Path Of Exile Full Crafting Guide (2024)](/img/n.gif)
Awesome vid for me as a beginner! I keep getting better each league and videos like these keep me excited to keep playing. Thank you!
Awesome man! That’s what I like to hear. These types of videos helped me a lot too
Your statement regarding fracturing odds is a gambler’s fallacy. Your odds are not 50% after you’ve failed 2x. It is still 25%.
Ye agree.
I think he meant the time invested in a strategy will improve your speed & quality running this strategy. So overall you have more chances to get the card rather than trying out multiple strategies with minimal time and effort.
Yup, I believe I state that. Odds never change, you need to give the game a chance to let the odds be in your favor. Ya boy is correct tho.
Wrong, that is why complex statistics exist. You are 68% likely to have succeded a 1/4 roll by 4 attempts. 94% chance by 10 and by run 31 you are pretty much guaranteed to have been successful at least once.
@@totallynottrademarked5279 You missed the point of the entire video... congrats. neat comment tho
@@Sync_Oh Responding to the dude with the original comment, not you.
TY man! i just dropped double apothecary !! just bought several hundret gildet scarabs for 40 divs to prepare alot of grinding but they dropped at the very beginning already lol
No way!! Lets go!!
Sure buddy.
Great video. Detailed enough to convey the message while also packing many concepts into 19 minutes.
Regarding the casino analogy, I have one bit to add: Even a player who is world class at every game in the casino will still earn more by sticking to one game. Why? Because you don't make money while walking from the poker table to the blackjack table.
In PoE the walk from table to table is especially long since it involves buying sextants, scarabs, etc 🤣
haha good point man. Plus you gotta learn the flow of the table and learn the game. Appreciate the kind words brother
a good video but thats not quite how odds work. if you fail 2 fractures on a 1 in 4 chance, the next one will not have improved odds. it will still be a 1 in 4 chance. if you fail 10 in a row, the 11th will still be a 1 in 4 chance.
Right, i believe I say that. You always have a 1 in 4 chance everytime... But you have to give it a chance to hit those 1 in 4 if that makes sense. But yes, you are correct, odds never change
Like you have to give the odds a chance to be in your favor… if that makes sense
@@Sync_Oh yep that does make sense. you wont hit every time, but you have to give it enough chances and you will win overall.
@@Sync_Oh Makes sense, it's not about getting lucky, it's about putting yourself in a position to get lucky.
@@Spiritchuckpvpliterally
Helpful vid, thanks for giving my man Sirgog some love.
Dude is a legend
this guy is smart and knows how to explain what he is saying
To a degree. He did say if the odds are 1 in 4 and you gamble twice then the third try is a 50/50…. This is literally the gambler’s fallacy.
@Bittler87 I've always hated probabilities and statistics. Yea he doesn't have a PhD but the underlining point is there.
Additional comment on probability. If the odds are 1 of 4 (25%), crafting with those odds 4 times is not 100% or near it: it's 68%. So you have to be careful with 'playing odds' when crafting. Odds of hitting 1 of 4 in 8 tries is 90~%. So yeah it might be cheaper to buy the fracture you want (or insert other craft thing here). The percentage chance to hit is deceiving, and it's why a lot of people gamble and can't understand why they aren't hitting: TLDR cause odds are not additive.
Interesting, okay thanks
@@Sync_Oh No worries man. Forgot to say great vid! Good advice for newbies honestly.
@@Sync_Oh The reason why odds work this way is every time you 'try again' you start from zero. you roll the dice on a 25% chance. There is no pity system in PoE where you build to a 'non fail' point (pity system like in Lost Ark for example). But again the majority of you video is pretty awesome dude. I learned a couple things, and I've played since beta. lol
Yeah that I understand. The odds are always the odds. But understand the game and the strategy will help you figure out which odds you want to play and whether the odds are worth or not. That was really the point I tried to make, it just didn’t come out quite that well. Appreciate you tho for real
@@Sync_Oh Odds are not odds and that is why complex statistics exist. The odds of hitting say a 1% drop chance, aka rolling 1 on a 100 sided dice is only a 95% chance of being succesful at hitting 1 by your 395th attempt. This is why ARPGs are talking about 1/1000 and 1/10000 chance odds on items. Due to the fact we are rolling the dice so many times by killing screens full of monsters. Now Magic find basically lowers the numerical range in which you have to roll that 1. So with MF instead of it being a 1-100 roll its now a 1-50 roll. Extreme example but that is normally how MF is coded.
You mentioned search for the odds for cards, what resource can we use to find this?
That’s a good question tbh. I usually use other peoples vids. Let me see if I can’t find you a resource
@@Sync_Oh thanks! Just started playing this league so there are tons of things i dont know yet. Subbed also! Since I learned a lot from just this one video. :D
what specific sextants are you running with your tormented spirits, harbinger, deli setup?
So question, maybe its just because i didnt hear it or didnt catch it. But would you suggest _ONLY_ running crimson temple (example) as a farm. Or do you consider the "same farm" with using crimson/city atlas connection as a reset for crimsom temple drops? Sorry if i didnt word this out properly :P
So it’s not about the map specifically. I personally like chasing money and div cards. So this strat allows a lot of those to drop. And the maps I have chosen are 80% crimson 20% cemetery. Your maps could be different depending on what cards or items you are looking for
nice mindset man! 😎👍subbed
This man has never taken a probability and statistics class in his life... lmao.
While you may be correct regarding your PoE strategy, the casino analogy was ridiculous.
facts bro, been doing crimson temple for so long and still zero drop for me.. rng is rng, pretty much done with this map and i just go with maven writ/conqueror map farming.. ten times better and more fun
Thanks I was deeply worried about his relationship to gamble and casinos when I heard him.
could you paste your pob in here please? ^^ TY good videos!!!!
How much quantity are you runin on your character?
Not enough tbh. Dropped a mirror yesterday tho, gonna get the build ripping on stream tomorrow if you want to come check out the build and say what up. I stream here in YT
Man I've ran over 200 Crimson with 62 quantity and 100%+ Juiced maps. Still no Apothecary.. But I make hella good divs. Had over 10+ Seven years bad luck cards. @@Sync_Oh
almost the entire video is saying as if staying on the same thing would make the odds to get better, seems like my dude doesnt know how probability works
Seems that you didn’t much pay attention… practice the strat, be better at it. Or let me put it this way. You want to go pro in soccer, so to prepare. You change to a different sport each year. Football baseball basketball cricket swimming. What are your odds of going pro in soccer
In probability, the law of large numbers describes that your average outcome is more likely to be closer to the expected outcome with more and more iterations. Gotta grind it out.
May the odds be ever in your favour 😂😂😂
Appreciate the content! Definitely helps us beginners! That being said...
Quite a bit of bad logic and analogy to get the proper result. Being a table games employee, let me fix some of it.
The odds are against you, so you are better off getting in and getting out. The longer you stay, the more likely your results get closer to the actual odds (not in your favor). This is why a fast farm speed is better than the more difficult content. Changing maps is more like changing tables (not game). Its like moving from one blackjack table to another. Modding difficult maps that you are built to do is like learning to card count and putting the odds in your favor. Those big difficult items to get are more like hitting one of the massive progressives at casinos. Super rare, but pretty much a crapshoot and doesn't really matter what you do.
Sorry, got interrupted before I finished...
A lot of your thinking is based on improper gamblers mind. Playing "by the book" is still supposed to net you a loss in the long run.
Think of it this way... Most people get up at some point during their play. It usually isn't enough for them to walk away. If it was, nearly every person would leave a winner.
Good to hear from you brother! Appreciate a perspective from someone from that world. But wouldn’t finishing a map and moving to another ( in the same strat) be the same as switching tables on the same game? That’s more my point
@CincoCeroCinco That is exactly what I was saying. Sorry for the misunderstanding. Maybe I misunderstood you as well.
To reiterate the most important part. Thank you again for your content. Been looking for a video for basic map understanding. Would like to say, as a beginner, I did have to slow down the video to see which items you used.
Chisels
Orb of alchemy
Vaal Orb -> charged compass (on unidentified)
Sextants and scarabs
Also... 9 days later and still a super fast response. Holy crap. Unreal! Easy sub for you!
@@spikepinto Hey thanks brother! Lesson learned fromthis video is I need to be a little more clear with my thoughts. You weren't the only one comfused by my logic hahaha
Map strats don't work because people are not running magic find. MF creep has gotten absurd and as a result, they have moved the drop tables up and up to accommodate the new values people are hitting. So mapping feels like absolute shit by comparison without MF.
Cool, you got the data to back this up or nah?
@@Sync_Oh You mean all of the patch notes and dev interviews since Ritual where they talk about removing loot goblin rares, nerfing alters (espcially red), and the massive loot nerf in Sentinel? Like do you even read patch notes?
Hahahaha that’s what you’re referring to? Nerfing ritual, loot goblins (that almost solely benefited from MF), and the sentinel league mechanic? Come on buddy
@@Sync_Oh Read what I wrote again, SINCE RITUAL LEAGUE, FFS they came out and had to clarify that lowering basic currency drop rate was intentional during Sentinel league including from alters.
You need to google gambler's fallacy.
You need to google, Practice makes perfect
Yea I subbed
Dude, your logic about focusing on a single start at the time is so wrong. If you already ran 50 maps and didn't drop an Apothecary, leaving to do something else doesn't mean that you waisted the 50 map, because it already didn't drop - you still have a chance of 1/100 each map you will run from now on. Same for the casino - switching casino games won't make you win or loose more.
The only difference and what will make it worth while to run the same strat for a long time is that you have less downtime between maps and you are focused on doing what you are doing instead of changing your atlas passives and trading for mapping materials.
I do think it's better to be focused, but not at all for the reasons you gave.
well... and practice and efficiency... be better at your strat. Being successful in the casino isnt only about luck. It's also about knowing the game right? How do you learnt he game? By spending time playing it.
In all honesty tho, I ran 100 straight maps and it was awful, I think you should switch it up and run other things. But dont stop running your strat right away if you dont get what you want instantly is all i am saying my man
ahahahaha
I'm not smart but.. Shouldn't you make this video WITHOUT MAGIC FIND gear on?🤔🤷ijs lol
Hahaha probably