Roughly 35 years ago we tried to wargame the Waterloo campaign using a map & counters game that only umpires could see while the players used maps they themselves had drawn and written messages in scraps of paper (the umpires team fought the actual battles). Quite predictably the French tried a different plan, with I Corps assigned to Ney from the start, while the Coalition players had agreed on Wellington moving to help the Prussians... which he tried to do but when masses of French troops appeared to his front he had to switch to the defensive and ask the Prussians to come to him. Napoleon won a more or less historical Ligny battle, while Ney occupied Quatre Bras and did hit the Allies relatively hard... but then the player roleplaying Ney decided to camp for the night around the crossroads (with three-four hours of light left) and Wellington got so big an advantage over him that nothing could avoid Wellington and Blucher joining forces and the umpires decided the French were defeated. I was one of the umpires and I will never forget the Emperor's shocked face when he learned what Ney had done - while Ney just laughed. I'd say the players had been well chosen!
Grouchy could have kept contact with Napoleon by chosing the route that kept him closer to the main army. Constant messengers riding between would have updated him of new orders.
You could play 'what if this change also occurred'. They are going with the simplest and more common 'March to the sound of the guns' variant. The one assumption is if the Prussians had enough of a screen to detect Grouchy moving towards the battle field.
I've won repeatedly in wargame simulations so its definitely possible. But having studied the battle most of my life I think the decisive decision, and critical mistake, that Napoleon made was to ignore Ney at the decisive moment when the Allied centre was collapsing and Ney requested that Napoleon release the reserve the complete the rout. Instead of realizing that the decisive moment of victory had arrived and that he needed to act rapidly to exploit it Napoleon had an obvious crisis of confidence both in Ney's judgment and his own destiny and refused to release the men Ney needed making some stupid comment about 'Does he think I can make soldiers?' even though he still had the Imperial Guard fully available and uncommitted at the time. It cost him the battle and probably the war.
@@Trebor74 No true but to be fair Wellington never actually did much once the battle started so the initial dispositions and choice of ground were those chosen by Wellington. I think the only decisive order that Wellington gave all day was 'Up Guards and at 'em' and there is even some doubt that he actually said that.
Wow. Drone shots, location shooting, interior vehicle shots, map overlays, shirts, and crisp editing! You guy's are the Ridley Scott's.... er.....umm.... of historical wargaming videos!
I think it became increasingly difficult for Napoleon to win battles as the Napoleonic wars proceeded. Early in the wars it was possible for opponents to be radically unprepared for new tactics and technology, and thus for Napoleon to achieved decisive results, but that became harder as experience of combat increases, and the enemy's superior numbers and resources remain.
Grouchy is pronounced Grouchee. The mistake Grouchy made was apart from not attempting to march to the sound of the guns that he didn't stay closer to Napoleons main force. So Grouchy should have been left (to the West) of Blucher with only his cavalelry keeping track of Grouchy. The prime task he had was to prevent Blucher joining the main battle. 7:01
Such a great video. Great bunch of lads, great illustration of how it was campaigning on the ground in this period - not just about the battles. Such high production quality, fantastic stuff.
The book on Waterloo by Benard Cornwell points out that the Prussians, who had to first cross a swollen river over a single rickety bridge, then up muddy slopes could have been held off by a single brigade. Had that been done it would have come down to Napoleon vs Wellington alone. The Prussians would have been stopped at the only crossing. Napoleon would have won.
Excellent video. Wonderful approach to the subject - very professionally done. Looking forward to the wargame and seeing how Grouchy's gamble turns the battle.
Excellent concept and actually following the route is giving great insight. Seeing the actual land is so much more than looking at maps. As we and the players know what actually happened, cant fully recreate the fears and hopes of either set of Commanders. The Prussians were worried about advancing through difficult terrain unsure if their Allies would stand, or retreat and leave the Prussians trapped between two French armies. French commanders may have worried that disobeying orders and potentially repeating the mishap of D'Erlons Corps of the 16th. Look forward to seeing the game
Very cool going to Belgium and getting to see the ground like that! Walking the actual battlefields always brings a unique perspective. Looking forward to seeing how the battle plays out! Thanks for the entertaining content 😉👍
Leaving aside the tabletop battle for a moment - walking the ground and discussing options reminds me of the many "TEWTs" (Tactical Exercise Without Troops) that I took part in whilst serving in the British Army in Germany. Commanders and Senior NCOs would spend several days driving/walking around our actual wartime deployment areas and (anticipated) battle zones, discussing how best to counter the various different types of soviet attack that we could expect. In exactly the same way as seen here in the vid.
This is an exciting video! Starts with an interesting question about a historical situation and moves on to interesting speculation, which looks to lead to an exciting game on the table. Doesn’t much matter (to me) if Napoleon had no chance of winning at Waterloo in reality. The game is the thing. I’ll take STIMULATION over simulation in this hobby any day.
Great video! Even with a victory at Waterloo 1815 would have played much like a repeat of 1813. It's probably better for France the war ended as fast as it did. Alsace-Lorraine might have been handed to Prussia then and there.
if Davout had led the right flank instead of Grouchy, Davout absolutely whips the Prussians before they can link up with Wellington. The Iron Marshal was probably Napoleon's most consistent general. Man got results.
Trouble with Waterloo is that Napoleon would have needed an absolutely complete and TOTAL crushing victory over both the Anglo-Dutch and the Prussians in order to have any hope of deterring the huge armies from Russia (and Austria) that were assembling. I don't see any realistic scenario in terms of the greater goal. Sort of like Hitler winning the Battle of the Bulge. Even if he did win it would only delay the inevitable at best.
I love these on-site what ifs; much more intriguing than people debating it academically to actually see the locations (even if they have changed somewhat over time). Looking forward to the tabletop game but already looking like a strategic victory for the allies.
Thank you for an entertaining and thought provoking first video. The “What ifs” of history typically generate lots of passion. Your approach is extremely professional and fact based. Unsure how this will play out during the war game, there is a variation to explore. What if Grouchy detached a combined arms force of cavalry, infantry and artillery? Say the II Cavalry Corps plus the infantry formations you are gaming minus two divisions instead sent to Wavre. Considering the fragmented Prussian columns and their anxiety to advance against the French right (Barbero 2003), perhaps the arrival of cavalry and infantry on their left slows or stops the Prussian assault on Placenoit. This would have allowed Napoleon to add the weight of at least the Young Guard to his final assault on the Allied center. Very much looking forward to watching this play out.
Thank you for this interesting study on this alternative that would certainly have changed the outcome of this battle where everything was gathered to win, and which was truly lost for us. Vive l'Empereur !!!!
Fun fact Napoleon heavily Discouraged initiative in his Marshals and was known to rage at them if they do so Marshal Grouchy actions to follow orders does make sense even if it was the wrong Decision
March to the sound of the guns was a standing order. Desaix saved Marengo that way, and Bernadotte was nearly court-martialled for ignoring it at Auerstadt
Even if you wanted Grouchy to follow his orders to the point: He had orders to push the Prussians AWAY! To stay BETWEEN Napoleon and the Prussians. So that he could keep communications open with Napoleon. And so as to allow Napoleon to get back to him if and when free from Wellington. Or allow him to support Napoleon with a couple extra brigades if need be. What Grouchy somehow managed to do was to go place himself on the other side of the Prussians. Where he could be of absolutely no help whatsoever. There is no way he was ever ordered to do that. There is no way Napoleon ordered him to take around 30.000 soldiers and go merry go around without having any idea where the Prussians actually were. At bare minimum, he should have scouted properly and should have had an idea about where they were and which direction they were marching. Its a tremendous blunder that he failed to do that. Its a huge part of the duties as a commander. You have to scout and know where your enemy is. Otherwise you cant possibly follow orders if you have no idea what is going on around you.
@@Ruimas28 if I remember correctly Grouchy was chasing the Prussian rear guard thinking it was the Prussian army while Blucher joined with Wellington. Also Napoleon didn’t know were Grouchy was due to Napoleon’s Usual Chief of Staff Mashal Berthier not being their, so leaving another marshal (I can’t remember who) with Berthier Labyrinthine Structure, so if Napoleon ordered Grouchy to join up with the rest of the Army he didn’t know were he was to send a messenger to him
@@blairscartoonshistory7477 You are pretty on point on most of those observations. Yes, Grouchy did think he was chasing the Prussian rear guard. Which begs the question: What was he thinking? Based on what? He was obviously not scouting properly. Because he had no idea the Prussians did turn around and were marching towards Napoleon. In fact, Napoleon found out this info first, when it should hav been Grouchy informing Napoleon. Because Grouchy was supposed to be the unit closest to the Prussians. Yes, you are correct that Napoleon did not know where Grouchy was. This clearly indicates that Grouchy either did not follow the roads ordered (if any were), or failed to inform Napoleon about his own movements (this one he absolutely failed and should have become weary about it immediately). Once he heard guns from Waterloo, given that he obviosuly could not communicate with Napoleon, he should have moved immediately in a way to reopen communications. At least to get an update on everything and understand if there were new orders. Great point about Berthier. Yes, the lack of Berthier was causing issues all around. It had already caused issues at the start of the campaign. The army did not start marching as fast as Napoleon wanted and not all commanders were adequately informed on the general movement orders. This was happening! I also think that quite possibly Napoleon was lacking in both staff and good independent cavalry officers. People who could ride around with small forces, scout, keep the different corps in communication with each other. I think this is what one will notice immediately in the Grouchy situation. That there was no good cavalry officer operating between Napoleon and Grouchy, to make sure that they kept in communication and to make sure what was going on. I find it odd that Napoleon did not know such a thing was necessary. But I believe that would have been a bit micro management. The big problem is that Napoleon no longer has enough good officers to keep everything going under him. And Napoleon himself is not fit enough to go around micro managing all over the place. He desperately needed Davout over there. Eugene might also have been a possibility. Ney was a very brave commander but there is a reason why Napoleon always kept Ney under a tight leash. He allowed Ney some independent comand at Quarter Bras and had to try Grouchy for the final stages. The reality is he did not have a good commander capable of independent action. Now, this is where I disagree with your very first statement. Napoleon did allow independent command to many of his officers. In fact, his entire corp structure and the way he liked to move his armys using several roads, those things dictated that local commanders needed to have some ability to think on their own. The problem is that people like Massena were too old. People like Lannes were dead. For his final campaign he was severely lacking in anyone he could trust with 30.000 soldiers.
While the ACW is my area of most interest, and I loved the Gettysburg/Hood episodes, this one tops it for me. The campaign aspect is so cool. Can’t wait for the battle! Please do more of these Mark. It’s a great concept!
Such a great video. Can’t wait for the finale. I’ve visited waterloo and surrounding area three or four times. Those low Belgian ridges do give a surprisingly good view!
As I understand Napoleon’s orders did not mention Wavre… they mentioned staying between Blucher and Wellington… the expectation was the Prussians we’re going to retreat towards Germany
If Grouchy had returned to the field and if the battle had started at 9.30am as planned but didn't due to the rain making the ground too soft to move canons the battle would probably have been won.
unquestionably Napoleon SHOULD HAVE won at Waterloo....in fact this defeat is the result of a combination of unfavourable factors which largely contributed to the defeat of the Emperor Napoleon. I'm not going to talk about the fact that the ground was soaked by incessant rain throughout the night, which delayed the start of the attack and made artillery much less effective, I'm not going to talk about the fact that Napoleon was ill that day and that he sometimes had to be absent from his command post, nor the tragic error of judgment of Marshal Ney who launched a massive cavalry attack unsuited to the moment, nor about the fact that attacking is largely unfavourable to the attacker etc....non, I will talk about Napoleon's aide-de-camp, who played a crucial role in this defeat. Napoleon's usual aide-de-camp had always been the very capable Berthier, but he died some time before the battle when he fell from a window....sinister pressing. He had been replaced by a young, inexperienced aide-de-camp and Napoleon wanted to order Grouchy, who on his right wing was pursuing the Prussians, to rejoin the battlefield at the end of the day. He therefore ordered his aide-de-camp to send this order to Grouchy. But as the battle progressed Napoleon did not see Grouchy arrive on the battlefield, so he turned to his aide-de-camp and asked him if he had indeed sent the order to Grouchy...... The aide-de-camp replied that he had, in fact, sent a cavalryman to carry the order to Grouchy. It was at this point that Napoleon turned round and said to him, "haa my poor friend, for such an order it wasn't a cavalryman that should have been sent, but 100 !".....in fact the rider fell from his horse during his journey and broke his leg, the order never reached Grouchy.....despite this, Grouchy's officers told him that he had to march to the sound of the cannon and rally the battlefield but Grouchy, accustomed to precise orders from the Emperor, thought that he was destined for another task....and refused, tragic choice....by more than 2 to 1, the fate of the battle was now compromised.
One last point, someone posted a comment saying that this is how the History channel should be made. This channel neither give true accounts of certain battles accurately and their sources has to be scrutinised and verified or questioned.
Net's mistake in attacking with the Calvary and Napoleon's. absence for hours due to his I'll health are I believe off far more importance too Napoleon's defeat at Waterloo. Grouchy had his orders to follow although he marched too far eastward instead off staying westward. Therefore staying close to both Napoleon and the Prussian's he was to keep from joining Wellington.
It can only be said that Napoleon defeated himself at Waterloo. He gave Grouchy no alternate orders if he was not able to engage the Prussians. But if Napoleon did reinforce Ney in his push at Quatre Bras, Wellington could have either been defeated or so badly mauled the Anglo-Allied stand at Waterloo would have been impossible.
I dont think the outcome of the tabletop game is relevant. The french will be delayed and kept out of the main engagement. The prussian 4th and 1st Corps (which took a separate more northern route BTW) will proceed to the battle. In general i do love your approach, well done men🎉🎉🎉🎉
Grouchy would never have 'discussed' his plans with any of his 3 corps commanders, Excelmans, Vandame or Gerard, making it worse was their dislike of seeing Grouchy promoted over their heads. A stew pot of bad feeling. On the Prussian side, many of their officer distrusted the Duke of Wellington, it was only Blucher's determination that got any Prussians anywhere and late to boot!....
Grouchy was also responsible for not annhilating the Russian Army during the russian campaign if I remember correctly. Not wanting to engage his cavalry, disobeying orders, against the retreating Russian.
Even if the french won waterloo, it would still be in trouble because napoleon had to deal with austria, russia, spain, and the german conf. The worst is, the enemies learned about his style
Napoleon made so many strategic mistakes leading up to the battles, had so many Allied officers and generals act with almost optimal results... and it was still razor thin close
I heard the Napoleon was very ill during the battle with his intermittent stomach issues and had to take a few naps leaving Ney and others to handle the situation which was not wise. I believe a focused and healthy Napoleon definitely could have won with Grouchy present.
Ok, but didn't it rain before the battle of waterloo? So those fields would be muddy right now. The kind of mud the bycicle wheel would get stuck on. They would loose theyr boots in that ground. The road needs to be prioritized for the cannons, otherwise they will never reach the crossroads, yet alone Waterloo. And what about the cavalry? Are you charging the open country without it? Because they were passed the point of no return. So, if it was recalled, it's either at the back, behind the wagon train, or you had to stop some units to let the cavalry pass. Is there an alternate route they could take? Because at Austerlitz this caused a 4h delay for the left allied wing. And even if you had cavalry, that's 1,3 km of open ground in the plain view of 2nd core's artillery, mounted on the ridge. I would have gone to waterloo with whatever troops i can. Leave the artillery, send the cavalry on a southern route, march the most rested troops to the guns . Leave the hussars for screening Blucher.
If Grouchy marched quickly to the sound of the guns, the french may not win but all 3 armies would have fought to a standstill and Wellington would have retired, the Prussians, being the state that they were in, would have lost a 3rd of their men...lets see what you think
The Prussians would have marched more quickly to Wellington. Napoleon's entire campaign objective was to separate the two Allied armies. Letting the Prussians march away uncontested allows them to regroup faster assuming all other factors play out historically the same. The rain delays the start of the battle of Waterloo until 11 AM but Napoleon has more reserves to throw into the mix assuming he commits them. The Prussians arrive sooner than mid-afternoon and it's a bloodier battle than the historical one, but the outcome is likely the same in my opinion.
The great "what-if" of the campaing was if, after their defeat at Ligny, the Prussians had retreated towards Liège, their main depot, as they were supposed to do. It was Gneiseau's decission to retreat North to keep in touch with Wellington which gave the allies the victory (Blücher was MIA when the decission was made).
oh, no, I have to wait two weeks to see the conclusion! I think that it will make no difference, some Prussians wills still get to Waterloo, the French didn't co-ordinate their attacks very well (Napoleon was not in full control), and Napoleon is going to lose anyway.
In my own opinion i think Grouchy himself is the problem, most of the time in his military career he was mastered only command a cavalry i didn't read any accounts of him that he command a corps or even a infantry regiment, maybe Grouchy is not really capable for handling a corps in individual commands, as like i said he was a Cavalry commander, unlike General Gerard he has experience for commanding a infantry, thats why he said he wants to help the emperor rather than marching to prussians, coz he know whats better decision than Grouchy
Napoleon couldn’t win. Even if he broke the British at Waterloo with his whole Army, the Prussian Army would have defeated the battered French. If Wellington’s army folded after Napoleon sent in his reserves, the French would still be exhausted and routed by the Prussians entering the field. Napoleon lost Waterloo because his guns failed in the task of disrupting the British Square formations in support of the French Cavalry charge. If Wellington lost, Blucher would still deny Napoleon victory at Waterloo.
Eh, I think if Grouchy had arrived in good order, or had at least completed his goal of chasing the Prussian army - rather than losing them and instead tracking the rearguard - it could definitely have been different. Keep in mind that Blucher's Prussians didn't arrive in any meaningful force until the evening and you can't fight through night. Also Blucher's Prussians were also tired and overstretched and undersupplied, having been defeated not two days before. If everything else remains as is, except the British are routed around the same time that Blucher arrives (ie when the reserves are sent in) then I agree with you. It's not hard to see a situation where one or two things go differently, however.
He could have won if rain didn't delay his attack, the gunners manning the canons had fired more accurately n if Prussian army didn't come to the aid of British soldiers
Can’t wait to see how this plays out. Awesome video guys, and very jealous of the trip!! Looked like an amazing time!
THIS is what the History Channel should be like!
Too busy looking for Aliens & Bigfoot.
Totaly agree!
mostly Hitler nonsense in their later years,.@@stevenverdoliva6217
Except that a tabletop game with dice is not scientific.
I was thinking the exact same thing. No agenda or anything. Just facts and logical outcomes
18:01 so brilliant when they make contact and then it's transformed to the table top. Great execution of the concept.
Roughly 35 years ago we tried to wargame the Waterloo campaign using a map & counters game that only umpires could see while the players used maps they themselves had drawn and written messages in scraps of paper (the umpires team fought the actual battles). Quite predictably the French tried a different plan, with I Corps assigned to Ney from the start, while the Coalition players had agreed on Wellington moving to help the Prussians... which he tried to do but when masses of French troops appeared to his front he had to switch to the defensive and ask the Prussians to come to him.
Napoleon won a more or less historical Ligny battle, while Ney occupied Quatre Bras and did hit the Allies relatively hard... but then the player roleplaying Ney decided to camp for the night around the crossroads (with three-four hours of light left) and Wellington got so big an advantage over him that nothing could avoid Wellington and Blucher joining forces and the umpires decided the French were defeated. I was one of the umpires and I will never forget the Emperor's shocked face when he learned what Ney had done - while Ney just laughed. I'd say the players had been well chosen!
GrouCHY. Not Grouché
Thanks for the video, loved it
This is fantastic, I celebrate the day Little Wars led me to your channel. Very exited for this campaign.
Thanks! Happy to have you as a member of the Game Room!
Grouchy could have kept contact with Napoleon by chosing the route that kept him closer to the main army. Constant messengers riding between would have updated him of new orders.
You could play 'what if this change also occurred'. They are going with the simplest and more common 'March to the sound of the guns' variant. The one assumption is if the Prussians had enough of a screen to detect Grouchy moving towards the battle field.
The cost of losing Berthier before the hundred days.
I've won repeatedly in wargame simulations so its definitely possible. But having studied the battle most of my life I think the decisive decision, and critical mistake, that Napoleon made was to ignore Ney at the decisive moment when the Allied centre was collapsing and Ney requested that Napoleon release the reserve the complete the rout. Instead of realizing that the decisive moment of victory had arrived and that he needed to act rapidly to exploit it Napoleon had an obvious crisis of confidence both in Ney's judgment and his own destiny and refused to release the men Ney needed making some stupid comment about 'Does he think I can make soldiers?' even though he still had the Imperial Guard fully available and uncommitted at the time. It cost him the battle and probably the war.
Your opponent wasn't wellington,though.
@@Trebor74 No true but to be fair Wellington never actually did much once the battle started so the initial dispositions and choice of ground were those chosen by Wellington.
I think the only decisive order that Wellington gave all day was 'Up Guards and at 'em' and there is even some doubt that he actually said that.
Wow. Drone shots, location shooting, interior vehicle shots, map overlays, shirts, and crisp editing! You guy's are the Ridley Scott's.... er.....umm.... of historical wargaming videos!
I think it became increasingly difficult for Napoleon to win battles as the Napoleonic wars proceeded. Early in the wars it was possible for opponents to be radically unprepared for new tactics and technology, and thus for Napoleon to achieved decisive results, but that became harder as experience of combat increases, and the enemy's superior numbers and resources remain.
The 6 days campaign has entered the chat.
Napoléon trained the other european armies war after war you could say.
I mean, the rest of Europe also allied against him. It took a continent to beat him. But yes, his enemies adapted to his tactics as well.
Grouchy is pronounced Grouchee.
The mistake Grouchy made was apart from not attempting to march to the sound of the guns that he didn't stay closer to Napoleons main force.
So Grouchy should have been left (to the West) of Blucher with only his cavalelry keeping track of Grouchy.
The prime task he had was to prevent Blucher joining the main battle. 7:01
Looks like he's already done that here, by fighting Blucher between Wavre and Napoleon.
Such a great video. Great bunch of lads, great illustration of how it was campaigning on the ground in this period - not just about the battles.
Such high production quality, fantastic stuff.
That was great mark!👍 Your group out did themselves in this report! Lookoing forward to December and the result!!
The book on Waterloo by Benard Cornwell points out that the Prussians, who had to first cross a swollen river over a single rickety bridge, then up muddy slopes could have been held off by a single brigade. Had that been done it would have come down to Napoleon vs Wellington alone. The Prussians would have been stopped at the only crossing. Napoleon would have won.
Shouldn't both sides have had hundreds of scouts all over the countryside knowing where everybody was?
Excellent video. Wonderful approach to the subject - very professionally done. Looking forward to the wargame and seeing how Grouchy's gamble turns the battle.
Excellent concept and actually following the route is giving great insight. Seeing the actual land is so much more than looking at maps.
As we and the players know what actually happened, cant fully recreate the fears and hopes of either set of Commanders. The Prussians were worried about advancing through difficult terrain unsure if their Allies would stand, or retreat and leave the Prussians trapped between two French armies.
French commanders may have worried that disobeying orders and potentially repeating the mishap of D'Erlons Corps of the 16th.
Look forward to seeing the game
Love these style of vids, keep up the great work 👍🏻😊
What a stunning episode!! Cannot wait to see this played out! Happy Thanksgiving
Very well done! I am looking forward to the battle!
Great work guys!! Thank you! It looks like you all had a great time!
Very cool going to Belgium and getting to see the ground like that! Walking the actual battlefields always brings a unique perspective. Looking forward to seeing how the battle plays out! Thanks for the entertaining content 😉👍
Well done Guys, enjoyed the vid, you make some interesting historical points. Thanks and keep wargaming !
Envious that you got to make the campaign moves in 1:1 scale, but this looks like being a fascinating clash. Eagerly awaiting the outcome!
Bravo! I’m looking forward to the battle and seeing what effect it might have on the field of Waterloo.
Love these style of video. Thoroughly enjoyed your Gettysburg one and this is great 👍 One little gripe it's Grouchy not Grouchet 👍
Grooo- shieeee. Not grooo- shay..
Great video and excellent what if scenario! I’m looking forward to the battle. Thanks Gents
This is great. I like the idea of what if and then act on it
Leaving aside the tabletop battle for a moment - walking the ground and discussing options reminds me of the many "TEWTs" (Tactical Exercise Without Troops) that I took part in whilst serving in the British Army in Germany. Commanders and Senior NCOs would spend several days driving/walking around our actual wartime deployment areas and (anticipated) battle zones, discussing how best to counter the various different types of soviet attack that we could expect. In exactly the same way as seen here in the vid.
Haha, someone gotta hand Mark a pronounciation guide for French and German names. 😅 Great video, looking forward to how it playes out.
This is an exciting video! Starts with an interesting question about a historical situation and moves on to interesting speculation, which looks to lead to an exciting game on the table. Doesn’t much matter (to me) if Napoleon had no chance of winning at Waterloo in reality. The game is the thing. I’ll take STIMULATION over simulation in this hobby any day.
I can't wait to see the battle. I hope you had a good time in my country and enjoyed our food! :)
Great video! Even with a victory at Waterloo 1815 would have played much like a repeat of 1813. It's probably better for France the war ended as fast as it did. Alsace-Lorraine might have been handed to Prussia then and there.
Excellent set up for the “what if” game. Production quality is superb as usual. Kudos & Well Done! Can’t wait for December 8!
if Davout had led the right flank instead of Grouchy, Davout absolutely whips the Prussians before they can link up with Wellington.
The Iron Marshal was probably Napoleon's most consistent general. Man got results.
Three cheers for marks game room!
Very interesting alt history approach, guys. Like the close attention to terrain, the road net, rivers, etc. Well done!
Trouble with Waterloo is that Napoleon would have needed an absolutely complete and TOTAL crushing victory over both the Anglo-Dutch and the Prussians in order to have any hope of deterring the huge armies from Russia (and Austria) that were assembling. I don't see any realistic scenario in terms of the greater goal. Sort of like Hitler winning the Battle of the Bulge. Even if he did win it would only delay the inevitable at best.
Btw this is what would have happened if Davout was there instead of Grouchy.
I love these on-site what ifs; much more intriguing than people debating it academically to actually see the locations (even if they have changed somewhat over time).
Looking forward to the tabletop game but already looking like a strategic victory for the allies.
Thank you for an entertaining and thought provoking first video. The “What ifs” of history typically generate lots of passion. Your approach is extremely professional and fact based. Unsure how this will play out during the war game, there is a variation to explore.
What if Grouchy detached a combined arms force of cavalry, infantry and artillery? Say the II Cavalry Corps plus the infantry formations you are gaming minus two divisions instead sent to Wavre.
Considering the fragmented Prussian columns and their anxiety to advance against the French right (Barbero 2003), perhaps the arrival of cavalry and infantry on their left slows or stops the Prussian assault on Placenoit.
This would have allowed Napoleon to add the weight of at least the Young Guard to his final assault on the Allied center.
Very much looking forward to watching this play out.
I'm on the edge of my seat! Very cool analysis, and I can't wait to see how this plays out.
Thank you for this interesting study on this alternative that would certainly have changed the outcome of this battle where everything was gathered to win, and which was truly lost for us. Vive l'Empereur !!!!
Fun fact Napoleon heavily Discouraged initiative in his Marshals and was known to rage at them if they do so Marshal Grouchy actions to follow orders does make sense even if it was the wrong Decision
March to the sound of the guns was a standing order. Desaix saved Marengo that way, and Bernadotte was nearly court-martialled for ignoring it at Auerstadt
@@Penco40 Thanks for the info 😊
Even if you wanted Grouchy to follow his orders to the point:
He had orders to push the Prussians AWAY!
To stay BETWEEN Napoleon and the Prussians. So that he could keep communications open with Napoleon. And so as to allow Napoleon to get back to him if and when free from Wellington. Or allow him to support Napoleon with a couple extra brigades if need be.
What Grouchy somehow managed to do was to go place himself on the other side of the Prussians. Where he could be of absolutely no help whatsoever. There is no way he was ever ordered to do that.
There is no way Napoleon ordered him to take around 30.000 soldiers and go merry go around without having any idea where the Prussians actually were.
At bare minimum, he should have scouted properly and should have had an idea about where they were and which direction they were marching. Its a tremendous blunder that he failed to do that. Its a huge part of the duties as a commander. You have to scout and know where your enemy is. Otherwise you cant possibly follow orders if you have no idea what is going on around you.
@@Ruimas28 if I remember correctly Grouchy was chasing the Prussian rear guard thinking it was the Prussian army while Blucher joined with Wellington.
Also Napoleon didn’t know were Grouchy was due to Napoleon’s Usual Chief of Staff Mashal Berthier not being their, so leaving another marshal (I can’t remember who) with Berthier Labyrinthine Structure, so if Napoleon ordered Grouchy to join up with the rest of the Army he didn’t know were he was to send a messenger to him
@@blairscartoonshistory7477
You are pretty on point on most of those observations.
Yes, Grouchy did think he was chasing the Prussian rear guard. Which begs the question: What was he thinking? Based on what? He was obviously not scouting properly. Because he had no idea the Prussians did turn around and were marching towards Napoleon.
In fact, Napoleon found out this info first, when it should hav been Grouchy informing Napoleon. Because Grouchy was supposed to be the unit closest to the Prussians.
Yes, you are correct that Napoleon did not know where Grouchy was. This clearly indicates that Grouchy either did not follow the roads ordered (if any were), or failed to inform Napoleon about his own movements (this one he absolutely failed and should have become weary about it immediately). Once he heard guns from Waterloo, given that he obviosuly could not communicate with Napoleon, he should have moved immediately in a way to reopen communications. At least to get an update on everything and understand if there were new orders.
Great point about Berthier. Yes, the lack of Berthier was causing issues all around. It had already caused issues at the start of the campaign. The army did not start marching as fast as Napoleon wanted and not all commanders were adequately informed on the general movement orders. This was happening!
I also think that quite possibly Napoleon was lacking in both staff and good independent cavalry officers. People who could ride around with small forces, scout, keep the different corps in communication with each other. I think this is what one will notice immediately in the Grouchy situation. That there was no good cavalry officer operating between Napoleon and Grouchy, to make sure that they kept in communication and to make sure what was going on.
I find it odd that Napoleon did not know such a thing was necessary. But I believe that would have been a bit micro management. The big problem is that Napoleon no longer has enough good officers to keep everything going under him. And Napoleon himself is not fit enough to go around micro managing all over the place. He desperately needed Davout over there. Eugene might also have been a possibility. Ney was a very brave commander but there is a reason why Napoleon always kept Ney under a tight leash. He allowed Ney some independent comand at Quarter Bras and had to try Grouchy for the final stages. The reality is he did not have a good commander capable of independent action.
Now, this is where I disagree with your very first statement. Napoleon did allow independent command to many of his officers. In fact, his entire corp structure and the way he liked to move his armys using several roads, those things dictated that local commanders needed to have some ability to think on their own. The problem is that people like Massena were too old. People like Lannes were dead. For his final campaign he was severely lacking in anyone he could trust with 30.000 soldiers.
While the ACW is my area of most interest, and I loved the Gettysburg/Hood episodes, this one tops it for me. The campaign aspect is so cool. Can’t wait for the battle! Please do more of these Mark. It’s a great concept!
Excellent report!
Such a great video. Can’t wait for the finale. I’ve visited waterloo and surrounding area three or four times. Those low Belgian ridges do give a surprisingly good view!
Great video but “Groo-shee” not “Groo-shay” for Grouchy :)
Absolutely fabulous. keep it up guys!
As I understand Napoleon’s orders did not mention Wavre… they mentioned staying between Blucher and Wellington… the expectation was the Prussians we’re going to retreat towards Germany
Excellent idea and cant wait for the next episode. 👍
If Grouchy had returned to the field and if the battle had started at 9.30am as planned but didn't due to the rain making the ground too soft to move canons the battle would probably have been won.
Forgetting wellington 🤔
unquestionably Napoleon SHOULD HAVE won at Waterloo....in fact this defeat is the result of a combination of unfavourable factors which largely contributed to the defeat of the Emperor Napoleon. I'm not going to talk about the fact that the ground was soaked by incessant rain throughout the night, which delayed the start of the attack and made artillery much less effective, I'm not going to talk about the fact that Napoleon was ill that day and that he sometimes had to be absent from his command post, nor the tragic error of judgment of Marshal Ney who launched a massive cavalry attack unsuited to the moment, nor about the fact that attacking is largely unfavourable to the attacker etc....non, I will talk about Napoleon's aide-de-camp, who played a crucial role in this defeat.
Napoleon's usual aide-de-camp had always been the very capable Berthier, but he died some time before the battle when he fell from a window....sinister pressing. He had been replaced by a young, inexperienced aide-de-camp and Napoleon wanted to order Grouchy, who on his right wing was pursuing the Prussians, to rejoin the battlefield at the end of the day. He therefore ordered his aide-de-camp to send this order to Grouchy. But as the battle progressed Napoleon did not see Grouchy arrive on the battlefield, so he turned to his aide-de-camp and asked him if he had indeed sent the order to Grouchy...... The aide-de-camp replied that he had, in fact, sent a cavalryman to carry the order to Grouchy. It was at this point that Napoleon turned round and said to him, "haa my poor friend, for such an order it wasn't a cavalryman that should have been sent, but 100 !".....in fact the rider fell from his horse during his journey and broke his leg, the order never reached Grouchy.....despite this, Grouchy's officers told him that he had to march to the sound of the cannon and rally the battlefield but Grouchy, accustomed to precise orders from the Emperor, thought that he was destined for another task....and refused, tragic choice....by more than 2 to 1, the fate of the battle was now compromised.
One last point, someone posted a comment saying that this is how the History channel should be made. This channel neither give true accounts of certain battles accurately and their sources has to be scrutinised and verified or questioned.
great job guys
Net's mistake in attacking with the Calvary and Napoleon's. absence for hours due to his I'll health are I believe off far more importance too Napoleon's defeat at Waterloo. Grouchy had his orders to follow although he marched too far eastward instead off staying westward. Therefore staying close to both Napoleon and the Prussian's he was to keep from joining Wellington.
It can only be said that Napoleon defeated himself at Waterloo. He gave Grouchy no alternate orders if he was not able to engage the Prussians. But if Napoleon did reinforce Ney in his push at Quatre Bras, Wellington could have either been defeated or so badly mauled the Anglo-Allied stand at Waterloo would have been impossible.
This looks fun. thanks for doing this!
I dont think the outcome of the tabletop game is relevant. The french will be delayed and kept out of the main engagement.
The prussian 4th and 1st Corps (which took a separate more northern route BTW) will proceed to the battle.
In general i do love your approach, well done men🎉🎉🎉🎉
Grouchy would never have 'discussed' his plans with any of his 3 corps commanders, Excelmans, Vandame or Gerard, making it worse was their dislike of seeing Grouchy promoted over their heads. A stew pot of bad feeling. On the Prussian side, many of their officer distrusted the Duke of Wellington, it was only Blucher's determination that got any Prussians anywhere and late to boot!....
Superb - thank you
Would Napoléon got more chance if he did not divide 1/3 of his force pursuing Blücher, instead concentrating his force to deal with Wellington?
Very cool idea! Wish I had been doing something like that when I lived in the Shenandoah Valley!!
Grouchy was also responsible for not annhilating the Russian Army during the russian campaign if I remember correctly. Not wanting to engage his cavalry, disobeying orders, against the retreating Russian.
Great scenario!
What a cliffhanger! Great teaser!
Even if the french won waterloo, it would still be in trouble because napoleon had to deal with austria, russia, spain, and the german conf. The worst is, the enemies learned about his style
Awesome! Wunderbar!
Why didn't Grouchy send off some messages to Napoleon as soon as he heard the guns...send some light forwards and wait for what's what from Boney?
very informative . ty
Brillinat thank you
age old VERY important question, never before answered
Napoleon made so many strategic mistakes leading up to the battles, had so many Allied officers and generals act with almost optimal results... and it was still razor thin close
It's all down to the dice on the end!
I heard the Napoleon was very ill during the battle with his intermittent stomach issues and had to take a few naps leaving Ney and others to handle the situation which was not wise. I believe a focused and healthy Napoleon definitely could have won with Grouchy present.
Ok, but didn't it rain before the battle of waterloo? So those fields would be muddy right now. The kind of mud the bycicle wheel would get stuck on. They would loose theyr boots in that ground. The road needs to be prioritized for the cannons, otherwise they will never reach the crossroads, yet alone Waterloo. And what about the cavalry? Are you charging the open country without it? Because they were passed the point of no return. So, if it was recalled, it's either at the back, behind the wagon train, or you had to stop some units to let the cavalry pass. Is there an alternate route they could take? Because at Austerlitz this caused a 4h delay for the left allied wing. And even if you had cavalry, that's 1,3 km of open ground in the plain view of 2nd core's artillery, mounted on the ridge. I would have gone to waterloo with whatever troops i can. Leave the artillery, send the cavalry on a southern route, march the most rested troops to the guns . Leave the hussars for screening Blucher.
The Marshal should have marched when he heard the guns.
Amazing
If Grouchy marched quickly to the sound of the guns, the french may not win but all 3 armies would have fought to a standstill and Wellington would have retired, the Prussians, being the state that they were in, would have lost a 3rd of their men...lets see what you think
His own incompetence was largely responsible. One of the most inept battles here ever fought.
Wow, very impressive.
Very nice
🎵 Coulda, woulda, shoulda
(But I didn't do that) 🎶
What a great idea!
If Grouchy had indeed managed to keep Blucher from reaching the British then perhaps he could have won but alas the rest was history
While everyone assumes the Bluchers Prussian Army would have marched away from the sound of the Guns.
Awesome, please Grouchy win!
What if Grouchy had never been sent. What if Nappy had kept him there?
The Prussians would have marched more quickly to Wellington. Napoleon's entire campaign objective was to separate the two Allied armies. Letting the Prussians march away uncontested allows them to regroup faster assuming all other factors play out historically the same. The rain delays the start of the battle of Waterloo until 11 AM but Napoleon has more reserves to throw into the mix assuming he commits them. The Prussians arrive sooner than mid-afternoon and it's a bloodier battle than the historical one, but the outcome is likely the same in my opinion.
The great "what-if" of the campaing was if, after their defeat at Ligny, the Prussians had retreated towards Liège, their main depot, as they were supposed to do. It was Gneiseau's decission to retreat North to keep in touch with Wellington which gave the allies the victory (Blücher was MIA when the decission was made).
The Campaign was lost at Ligny and Quatre Bras.
Winning the battle of waterloo, is not impossible for Napoleon but winning the overall war of the 7th Coalition? I'm positively sure he won't.
Napoleon should have sent Ney in persuit instead.
Ney would have turned as soon as he heard the guns
oh, no, I have to wait two weeks to see the conclusion! I think that it will make no difference, some Prussians wills still get to Waterloo, the French didn't co-ordinate their attacks very well (Napoleon was not in full control), and Napoleon is going to lose anyway.
Haven't watched...but the question must be how could he lose?
Several generals and Marshals made serious mistakes.Napoleon was in command therefore,Guess who was too blame?
In my own opinion i think Grouchy himself is the problem, most of the time in his military career he was mastered only command a cavalry i didn't read any accounts of him that he command a corps or even a infantry regiment, maybe Grouchy is not really capable for handling a corps in individual commands, as like i said he was a Cavalry commander, unlike General Gerard he has experience for commanding a infantry, thats why he said he wants to help the emperor rather than marching to prussians, coz he know whats better decision than Grouchy
The guys you’d least like to go into battle with…….
Yes easily if Grouchy had done his job.
Napoleon couldn’t win. Even if he broke the British at Waterloo with his whole Army, the Prussian Army would have defeated the battered French. If Wellington’s army folded after Napoleon sent in his reserves, the French would still be exhausted and routed by the Prussians entering the field. Napoleon lost Waterloo because his guns failed in the task of disrupting the British Square formations in support of the French Cavalry charge. If Wellington lost, Blucher would still deny Napoleon victory at Waterloo.
Eh, I think if Grouchy had arrived in good order, or had at least completed his goal of chasing the Prussian army - rather than losing them and instead tracking the rearguard - it could definitely have been different.
Keep in mind that Blucher's Prussians didn't arrive in any meaningful force until the evening and you can't fight through night. Also Blucher's Prussians were also tired and overstretched and undersupplied, having been defeated not two days before.
If everything else remains as is, except the British are routed around the same time that Blucher arrives (ie when the reserves are sent in) then I agree with you. It's not hard to see a situation where one or two things go differently, however.
grouch-ey?!?
Not after Ney blew all his Cavalry.
He could have won if rain didn't delay his attack, the gunners manning the canons had fired more accurately n if Prussian army didn't come to the aid of British soldiers