Record Short Position on the Canadian Dollar - The Loonie Hour Episode 141
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 มิ.ย. 2024
- Cities are taking housing accelerator funds and then raising development fees to crush supply. Canada's population surges again. Living standards have not improved in 7 years. Government muzzles oil and gas companies from promoting fossil fuels. Speculators have a record short position on the loonie.
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Loved Rich on this one for his outspoken takes and for being himself.
Feel better, Rich Diaz aka best host aka hopeful prime minister candidate #RDForPM2025
Thank you for sharing. Financial education is crucial today to show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.1BTC to a decent 15B TC in the space of a few weeks... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
Linda Wilburn program is widely available online.
Hey, Guys. Great show as always, thank you!
To Steve’s argument about pre-sales that can’t go lower, and the buyer would rather just walk away from deposit, hoping the builder doesn’t sue.
My point would be then, the deals will be made with the builder. Once a builder is stuck with these units people walked away from, he’ll try to unload them on the market. If there’s no buyers, he’ll take whatever he can.
That’s exactly how it happened in the past. If the dev goes bankrupt the banks will offload them at lower prices to get whatever they can.
WOOO HOOO Saskatchewan!!
Keith is my favourite don’t care what anyone says!
He’s an absolute legend and thankfully I had the chance to talk with him! 🫡
Keith is on fire today. First time in your 141 episode history I’ve been openly laughing at his jokes. Great job, Keith😂
What I find frustrating is to listen to the news this morning and hearing how BC Hydro will soon likely be running short of electricity and at the same time the government tells us to buy and plug in electric cars and are stopping natural gas hookups in new construction. Meanwhile they are building natural gas exporting ports. And they have or are in the process of decommissioning gas powered electrical generating stations. I guess it is ok to export natural gas for others to burn but not for residents of BC. And we have a sewage treatment plant in North Vancouver which apparently was supposed to have been completed in 2020 at a cost of $700 million but is now possibly ready in 2030 at a price of 3 to 4 billion dollars. And the top sniveling serpent has a salary of about $500 thousand/year. WTF
Bc Hydro imported 20% of its power last year from AB or the states. You can guarantee it was generated with Nat Gas! Not sure if that qualifies for the “clean grid” the feds are mandating?!? They now have a Call for Power out asking for private producers to build generation because of the forecast shortfall. That and the major infrastructure upgrades needed, you can bet the BC power prices will be going up in the coming years!
Site-c Dam up in Fort Saint John will be coming on line soon
Remember the Horgan government said we don’t need the electricity and wanted to cancel project after 3 years shovel in dirt .
Voting on policy and not party is really important
Theres no housing shortage. Supply is tied up in investor and speculators, along with air bnb. The squeeze is bringing them on to market.
Perfect for another million immigrants to come on in!
Lots of people went Airbnb instead of long term rental because of the authoritarian rental tenancy branch laws.
@@robert-lr2zi Why not a trillion? What are you, racist or something?
Ya sure seems like investor demand is dropping and so ur seeing lots of new inventory but actual buyers arnt able to pay the crazy prices investors will pay so nothing is moving
@@Sgt_Cool yup. Want 2022 prices
Get well soon Rich!
Dude 4 months ago I switch crap load of money to usd I’m ahead of this curve. This time around Canada is going to take a bigger blow with the recession cause our housing is worse off then America , contrary to the 2008. Think before you invest. Follow the trends. Rate cuts ISNT BULLISH. It’s bearish. It means we’re IN a recession. For Canada to be the first one to cut, that’s horrible news lol. Canada is a shit hole
The US dollar is also in trouble. Not so sure you are that ahead of the curve with that move. Also, Nothing about this is funny, even if you think you are ahead, lots of people are hurting.
@@janicec100 i agree usd isn’t in great shape either, but better then cad
Can you guys please get your mics at similar volumes? Rich I turn down constantly and Keith I have to turn up.
Audacity-> three channels -> normalize each channel -> Compressor to make a sausage -> mix down to single mono track. Done!
37:23 to 39:00: Thank you Rich for speaking basic truths and facts!
Missed out on being a boomer by a few years but I get your Jokes Kieth . Keep them coming
Rich and Steve will appreciate them one day
Thank you, Stephen.
I totally get Keith.
Rich, you should never get rid of that facial hair. It is such a good look. You will have no trouble dating with that look. Noted by a man whose life changed after I grew out a beard.
It is his Pirate stache.
Has a name too. He calls it his Jolly Carolyn Roger.....
The ladies were kicking down your door after the beard?
@@kqh123 it brought all the boys to the yard
@@drewmueller4609 to each their own
Just got back from our annual trip to Van. Island from California. The ferry line to Denman was almost a mile long and it brought the question - "When boomers die who gets the house?" If there are more than one child then does the house get sold... profits split - What does that do to the housing market.
House...singular? Nah, that's plural. What poor sad boomer only owns ONE property?! You're not part of society if you don't own at least three.
@@bradcomis1066 True
Boomers have another 20-40 years before they’re dead
Asians are buying them up
The Government gets the house... though confiscating and variable insane taxes. Marxist utopia.
@44:50 dont forget long island iced tea becoming long island block chain!
Another great program and well wishes for Rich. I am currently short the Euro leveraged two times....Happy Summer Solstice day, longest day of the year.
This just feels like the stagflation of the early 80’s after the crash. No one was building for 4-5 years until the math corrected.
Love the SK shout out!!
Excellent as always!!
Thanks, Willie.
Is it October 2025 yet?
Dr Maghlich for starters, Rich. Helium-3 from seawater. Bechtel knows as drew up patent diagrams etc... but US Inc Congress blocked patent release o/b DOD in early 1990s. There is more but enough for now. We have plenty of seawater btw lol.
Do the provincial governments have to pay Capital Gains? If the BC government or City of Vancouver bought a bunch of condos and sold them in 10-20 years from now. Do they get hammered by Capital Gains?
The residents *HERE* don't want any more houses to be built. We live here because there are no people and we want it to stay that way. And we damn sure don't want to pay for sewer and water upgrades for these people to move here. So YES, if you want to build a house you WILL pay to upgrade the water, sewer, roads. grocery stores and hospitals etc.
There is a real lack of capex in Energy and Canada is missing the opportunity because of this government. Since they appear to clearly be set to lose next year, think forward to what another government would invest in to recover from this "lost decade".
The problem is presently there is an absolute glut of oil and natural gas relative to demand and the economy is recessing. On top of that, while OPEC has been cutting production, OPEC+ members like Iran have been overpricing their agreed upon limits and OPEC is looking to slowly tapering their production cuts into 2025. It’s actually a terrible environment for oil price appreciation right now and likely will be for the next year+.
I agree though, this government is cutting off our resource-heavy economy at the knees while they dole out debt-funded vote-buying social programs. The federal liberals literally just held a PR stunt for their government student nutrition plan at one of the rural more conservative schools I support. It was an utter farce and another step towards a Soviet-style decline of this one great nation. These people are clowns.
Actually, if the Libs trade out Trudeau for another, say Mark Carney (serious consideration seems to be occurring right now for that case), then the Libs could actually stand a chance to win again... would likely show in the polls immediately upon word of that happening. We'll see in next few months...
@@nickzivsin addition… killing small to medium sized businesses in every way. Permits, taxes, minimum wage, foreigners getting their citizenship so willing to pay high rents at a loss and pass it on to a relative.
Finally, a Looney Hour event in Montreal!
Canadian Gov’t is straight-up criminal. They know how economics works, I mean maybe no CF but there are people there that do. Debt requires productivity to be serviced. If the economy isn’t producing value, how will the debts get repaid?
Umm… Rich with a moustache is such a vibe 🔥
Hot?
great show as usual guys
Brookfiled Corp is in the nuclear power business through the Westinghouse acquisition
I have no problem with capitalism I love it. I have a real problem with government propping things up. Blanket appraisals seems to me that the banks aka the government is propping g things up. That’s not capitalism. If we are not capitalist then we should all be informed of that.
🔥 show
i see the whole podcast is now become a breeding ground for conspiracy theories - jokes aside, thumbs up to rich for calling it an anti-human agenda. Nobody else will have the guts to say it
what we need in this country now is somebody with some balls to stand up to this communist agenda that is here in Canada and now we don't have an election ...doesn't this happen in third world countries too or is it just Canada now.
These data centers are being built beside the power plants so the grid is not an issue
It costs me at least 500L of diesel to produce 2500 bushels of organic wheat not counting what is used to get the seed to me, to truck the wheat to market, to create the tractors and the parts to repair said tractors. This will never change unless you go back to horses. They are only increasing cost not reducing emissions
Thank you for sharing.
I saw a phrase that expresses the muzzling of uncomfortable truths - minoritarian social liberalism .
Any views on LIBOR ending in September, and any connection to this short? Just my 2 cents worth. Cheers guys, as always.
This is a surprisingly well informed comments section. Great stuff boys and girls!
58:59.....it;s plain for me to see, that ALL countries are sacrificing their currency simultaneously so that the cross rates remain similar but purchasing power goes down
Is it true that BC is not allowing more fees for buildings and is passing it to property tax?
good video.
Awesome pod cast
Awesome show! Love it every time. and much better microphone discipline today... except Steve. Why can't you put it on a stand!?? Be careful or you'll end up on the next Hawk Tuah meme.
LNG = liquified natural gas. But it takes 25% to liquify it.
Talked about many things we the people are discussing especially about government corruption and one sided censorship
A net short position in the futures market does not necessarily mean the FX market is short. It may just be a hedge for an underlying long position in the cash market., I.e., foreign investors in Canadian bonds which I read recently have been coming in large numbers. Maybe they want the interest rate exposure without the currency exposure.
This is true. For every market in futures - there are hedgers and speculators.
The party is just getting started 🎉😂…..just imported some over taxed Italian wine 🍷 to celebrate 😂😂😂
CAD speculative shorts would be because of the cuts, would it not? Basic macro says currency demand weakens when rates go lower, all else equal. Fed hasn't cut yet, BoC has, and so the USD earns more than CAD.
Thanks for the video boys ! Enjoy the weekend r !!! GSD!!!!
GSD.
Remember well the pre sales visited pre-covid. This all looks good on them. Looking forward to the 50-80% discounts.
Steve nailed it. Condos are a lagging indicator. Developers can’t stop building, but new projects are not happening we just can’t see it yet. there’s to much risk and too much uncertainty.
Is that just in the GTA and GVA or everywhere? I see lots of building in the burbs and no signs of slowing down…
Were you guys consultants to the characters of realtors in The Big Short? 🤷🏻♂️
hahaha...
Why not Edmonton next trip???
Hey guys, I know you're all pretty pro-car but I think there is a fundamental reasoning behind the local government budget gaps. Urban sprawl is very expensive and does not pay for itself. This was papered over by expensive downtown residential and commercial taxes subsidizing this sprawl. The issue is now that wfh has changed the values of these properties and created a funding gap that either needs to be made up with hiking development charges or some other form of taxation. Obviously property taxes could be raised to represent the actual cost to service low density sprawl (highways, roads, sewers,...). The 'accelerator fund' is kicking the can on this by giving an influx of capital to upgrade these services but eventually the Piper will have to be paid. I'm not saying low density suburbs shouldn't exist, I'm just saying they shouldn't be subsidized by development charges and high density property taxes in downtowns. It's a fundamentally unsustainable situation.
No its just commies being commies according to their analysis lmao. Honestly they are getting pretty lazy with their content.
Hey Steve, a few years ago, you were always interviewing with another young local guy. He was a young Asian with long hair, who made videos in his mom’s house and he had a lot of posters on his walls. He had been calling for the crash of Vancouver real estate. Do you still talk to him?
David Lin?
@@BellaBella-jw9ef sounds right, except for the long hair
You're thinking of Formafist. He still has a TH-cam channel but only posts new videos occasionally.
@@Lex-rt7vd yeah that’s him lol
700 watts fr GPU is a lot. These are AI cards only. Nvidia has been banking on this technology since 2013. Ark investment has been banging the drum on AI for same amount of time.
Twinkies got him sick. Why are we 720P, 2024 boys, get minimum 1080P
Been refreshing and refreshing my feed. Nothing. Then Bam-Loonie hour. For an hour I was like WTF! Phew. Anyway, good show gentlemen.
Thanks, man.
I bet you make pretty good spaghetti sauce
Hey Rich - You should run for office. Seriously. I'd love to see you debate some of these Eco-Fascists.
Edmonton isn't increasing fees or red tape. It's one of the easiest places to get a development permit. They were ahead everyone else when it came to rezoning.
If you can't be pretty, you better be smart
@@donm2067 It's getting prettier in the core because of increased development. It may not be like downtown Vancouver, but there is starting to be very nice pockets of central Edmonton. I wouldn't touch the Edmonton suburbs with a 50 ft pole, though.
Methane isn't a good fossil fuel, it just isn't as bad as coal. Methane use will still have to be phased out to prevent global warming.
I'm a big fan of the show on economics, housing, monetary policy, etc... But as a physicist who understands perhaps a bit more about climate change and greenhouse gas emissions, I'm saddened to hear climate change skepticism and a lack of understanding about how gas compares to coal. Human emissions are changing the climate, coal can be twice as bad as gas, but not always, sometimes gas is worse, it's complex. I encourage the loonie hour to get someone on the show with expertise in the area, you guys are smart, it can expand your view.
carbon emissions begins and ends with population. People consume...that's what they do, and consumption demands production and production results in emissions so don't presume to tell me that taking 1,000,000 foreigners a year into Canada is helping your supposed climate change initiative. It is a scam.
The liberal government can’t go a day without a new scandal. How they aren’t in prison shocks and angers me.
Great Job!!! Thank You... :-)
Climate change: I don't understand how humans got roped into thinking we are the cause of cyclical climate change and that somehow we could also STOP it? IT'S CYCLICAL!!! LOL
Steve, you should get the Edison motors guy on here. To talk about the green grants debacle etc.
He was already on a previous episode
Whats the name of Guilbeault's outfit again?
Which is that book by Dashkar Patel? At 7:00
Who are the buyers?
Previously, buyers were middle-class parents investing home equity in second and third properties. Now, many are underwater and need to sell, turning former buyers into sellers.
The current real buyers are those without homes who are waiting for prices to drop another 30% to afford a purchase.
Real estate agents dont know that when they start cutting that means the data is showing that the economy is weak and their data is delayed at least 1 month. Anxiety, panic, and capitualtion are coming. Crash has only just started.
Buy now! A million more immigrants coming in this year!
It's good that we have our own "All in" podcast with a much better name 🙂. I'm your 4th bestie 😅.
That's a nice compliment. Thank you.
Risk taking isnt being punsihed what about the fact all the investors are being bailed out with extended amortizations as well as what do you call blanket appraisals. This basically says go and do whatever you want and the feds and big banks will hold the bag.
The government is following the program the Century Initative except they didnt think of housing and jobs for these people first
The blob is eating everything!!!😂
Pre construction investors want to inflate the housing market over 500k in some cases with no risk of loosing money 😂
After listening to the last few podcast I was considering shorting the canadian dollar
Canada will be doing the most cutting cause our economy is fucked
Buy gold and Bitcoin, it's not like other governments across the globe has their shit together in comparison to Canada
North Korea has come to Canada.
Canadian dollar is actually going to outperform because of the deflation that will occur
Outperform which currency? Definitely not the US.
Didn't he only take 1 bite of it...? Lol
Finally! 😉👍
I was a stay at Home mom with no money in my IRA or any savings of my own, which was scary at 53 years of age. Three years ago I got a part time job and save everything I make. After 3 years, I am 56 yo and have put $9,000 in an IRA and $40,000 in my portfolio with CFA, Evelyn Infurna. Since the goal of getting a job was to invest for retirement and NOT up my lifestyle, I was able to scale this quickly to $150,000. If I can do this in a year, anyone can.
I know this lady you just mentioned. Evelyn Infurna Services is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as a former employee at Goldman Sachs; a renowned investor she is. Evelyn Infurna has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies n has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.
I went from no money to lnvest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Evelyn Infurna. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here
You mention your advisor & that caught my attention. I'm eager to learn more and potentially seek her guidance. Could you share how I can get in touch with her???.
Well the name is 'Evelyn Infurna'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
@Infurnaevely
The thing is there’s no such thing as risk anymore with banks rewarding speculators with blanket appraisals. What part of capitalism is that? I thought China was the bad one?
I mean you guys need to address when you're having these housing discussions that It makes perfect sense that people aren't going to throw themselves on the bonfire as a sacrifice. I'm a voter and I'm not going to support any politician that's going to hurt the value of the one big financial asset I have while also not doing anything about my housing costs ( there's been zero on reducing cost of housing to those of us who own and bought in the last 5 years, when we faced larger increases in housing costs then any other group). So what's in it for me? I'm not doing well, My housing costs are through the roof relative to other points in history and my wages have fallen behind inflation by 25% over the last 10 years thanks to the provincial government bargaining like jackasses. So if politicians don't want to make it enemy out of me in terms of voting push deals through that help me as much as they help people that still need new houses. Don't forget the people that own when you talk about bringing down the cost of housing.
I never really understood why pre cons were selling at a premium. You think they'd sell At a discount. But the fact that the gains had been so good plus the fact you can get in with a deposit and save while you wait for your full down payment explains a lot of it.
And Keith come on don't start spouting scientific bullshit I don't want to have to stop listening to this podcast. Human cause climate change is real We know that It's incredibly strong evidence of the fact, and there's no counter case that's anywhere near as convincing. That doesn't make the legislation right, That doesn't mean prevent people having conversations, and that doesn't mean that there's only one policy that's the answer. But don't spout misinformation.
Rich thinks Nuclear is the REAL top of the energy food chain.....hey Rich, where is your body getting energy from every time you breathe ?? Rich is going to have a rude awakening sadly 😞 as he is not really aware of energy sources the gatekeepers have blocked.
"Energy sources The Gatekeepers are blocking" Can you share a few?
Keith is a living boomer meme. Looks like he has the checklist for each episode: communism is scary (check), kids today (check), old man story with no point (check), joke the other hosts don't find funny (check)...
Thanks, that made me laugh.
Feel better rich. Good for your immunity. As you know, no need to get 4 boosters like some idiots lol
Steve. Would it be fair to say that you have never lived and or worked in a tough housing market? The reality is you have only lived and worked through the boom times. I hope you don't consider this tough because if you do an actual real downturn may be unbearable if this is tough
Paid government researchers praise government for genius policies. HAH!
I don't know why currency guys love picking up pennies infront of steamrollers
Boomers will be moving out of sfh into condos on the margin.
Kevin come on are you lost.
I guess living in NS you are not part of the real world. Wow
Your chart at 50:19....spending increased at the end of 2020....therefore I would argue that infrastructure spending and re-shoring was a initiative that Trump campaigned on, so lets not be too quick to credit sleepy joe for something trump started
I love that Canada’s getting treated like a third world country. I guess I’m moving back home with cheaper cost of living.
Well look around. It looks like a third world country to me most days. What SHOULD it get treated as?
Three of you and your families should move to Alberta before we become a republic. I will provide you with housing at no cost for the first 12 months to ease the transition.
That's not going to happen and it's incredibly shortsighted.
In first
"In defense of Karl Marx" Jeez Rich, I don't know. As a person who happens to be Jewish, aren't you a little uneasy about Marx's antisemitic views on Jewish people?
The elephant in the room is that there are billions of elephants in the room. No matter what we do we just have too many folks and each wants a car and a hot shower.
I keep wiping my phone screen.....tell Boomer to clean his camera lense. Or upgrade lolol
That's frustrating. I'll fix this.
Guys, don’t listen to those illiterate people. I agree with every single point you made about ecology and communist style media information suppression. 🤌🏼
Hey, Guys. Great show as always, thank you!
To Steve’s argument about pre-sales that can’t go lower, and the buyer would rather just walk away from deposit, hoping the builder doesn’t sue.
My point would be then, the deals will be made with the builder. Once a builder is stuck with these units people walked away from, he’ll try to unload them on the market. If there’s no buyers, he’ll take whatever he can.