Planning retirement has never been this confusing! First SVB, then Signature bank and now First republic, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash and recession 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the United States dollar, or could this be a good time to buy stocks? So I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here,
Everyone needs a different stream of income , unfortunately having a job doesn't mean security due to the high rate of tax , one needs to move ahead their expectation, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for now. Instead, it would be prudent to consider retaining a portion of your assets in gold. Alternatively, seeking advice from a financial advisor could provide valuable guidance in this matter.
@@sherryie2 true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
@@corrySledd Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? been saving for pension since age 18 - company scheme. along the way I hit higher tax, so I added to my company pension with a SIPP (tax benefits) I'm 46 now and would love to grow my finance more aggressively, there are a few cars I still wish to drive, a few mega holidays, etc.
@@corrySledd Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her
I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.
Consider buying stocks when the economy is not doing well, like during a recession. It could be a chance to buy them at a lower price and sell later when prices go up. Just keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, but sometimes it's better than keeping a lot of cash.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Now Sunil J will have to invent more lies just to answer your question. What a pain! Be kind to him folks! Common, who in the hell 'dreams' of retiring? that too in one's childhood, total bullshit!
I did not think it important to respond to your note, since I do not have to prove to anyone. However, I decided to honour the person who is encouraging others. Just because you think it is not possible, does not mean it does not exist or is not true. The biggest part of financial freedom is to stop being greedy - drawing the line, apart from having to create your stand alone cash flow. Btw, all of it is not given to me through generations. I have built my own independent flows, thanks to the almighty for the dream and the opportunities, I got and capitalized on.
Retiring early is possible but tough, it definitely requires discipline and big sacrifices. It’s not only about saving, the huge step is boosting earning capacity. I’m glad I got into stocks and recently understood and purchased my first NFT.
Very good information. I have been living on a budget of $1,200 per month including health care and traveling the world. I think this may be a good option for some. Ecuador and Thailand are both very affordable and my lifestyle, for the most part, is greatly improved. I would love to team up with someone to create some workshops to bring this information to those that are interested.
I retired this year at 58. I won't even tap into my holdings. I will be reinvesting still, for quite a few years. I live in Europe, get an American pension, and will work just a little bit. I firmly believe in living below your means.....if you can
i am not interesting in recreating what Fleck has achieved, i simply want to know how he went about purchasing property in Europe and if he used financing from an american institution.
Great video with some very good data to explain the 4% rule. I would add that the increase in your stock investment account would include not only dividends, as you mention, but also capital gains, and both would be left in the account. The magic of compounding can do a lot without much work over many years. Thanks for your thorough video.
ATTENTION: At 1:07 it says 50/50 stocks and bonds. At 3:07 it is a chart of 100% stocks. Overall I agree and like the video. Each do what you want, but 100% stocks investment, with dollar cost average and a drip for me. I studied the stock chart also going back the 100 years even the great depression. One day I need to make a video of explaining how simple investing really is vs risk and reward. Man I would have liked to know what I know now 20 years ago.
Seems insane. If you worked 40 uninterrupted years saving 25% of your gross with 8% returns you won't even have 30 times your salary after inflation. And That's a lot of saving without considering sackings, illnesses, divorce, swindles or any other reversals!!!
Wow that was a really good ad, I thought it was the video. But then I noticed the skip ad button. Pretty effective but I wised up just in time before the pitch.
Thanks for that very informative. Ive been investing in the real estate market, done pretty well out of it but looking for something more liquid. Any funds you recommend?
To keep with the idea of living below my means next month I'm moving into a smaller box on a busier street. I hope the increased traffic noise will take my mind off my smaller quarters.
There is simpler way if you can afford it. Buy properties where the population is still growing, rent them as income. Keep renting them and hold these properties until you decide to quit being landlord. Maybe at age 75 or so. Sell the properties, invest the proceed in blue chips dividend stocks or bonds. Inflation will incrase your property value till the time you decide to sell them Dividends and bonds coupon will support your monthly living cost.
Good advice, but most people dont really consider real estate investing, If you do it right you can 10% returns and increase in value too like you said
Andy Pagakis I agree, that is why I said “if you can afford it” and definately not for everyone. Your 1st investment property (which is usually your second property-since your first property is for living) will drain you! But if you keep on doing it right, after the rent income coming in from your several properties, your 4th or 5th property will become very affordable (assuming there is no huge spike or crash in property price in very short time). I am lucky that I have been able to do it. The rent will support my living cost. The capital gains accumulating until my retirement year will be the long term “timed deposit”. Reaching retirement years most of them can be sold and I’ll switch to fixed income papers like blue chip investment stocks and invt grade corp bonds for my living cost.
How do you go about taking the 4% from the non retirement accounts before hitting 60? Do you take the entire 4% at the beginning of the year and live off that or take it during the course of the year? And how do you decide where to pull from?
Big fan of Video School Online. This video does an adequate job of discussing the 4% "rule". My only comment though is if you retired in October 2007. By March 2009, you are now taking 6.6% out of your portfolio. This is called sequence of return risk. It gets overlooked A LOT. And in reality when people are faced with it, they have a hard time staying the course. I've seen it over, and over, again. Secondly, the 4% rule was based on an era where the 10 Treasury bonds were paying twice what they are now. With bond rates as they are today, the 4% has been downward adjusted to 3.2%.
Really liked your video. Great explanation and details on inflation. I'm personally planning on a 3.3% (30x) rule for myself. Great job putting this together and giving a shout out to MMM and Mad Fientist. How close are you to FI?
Thanks for the positive comment! My partner just "retired" this year (she's 43), and seeing her do it has me excited to get there.....even though I still enjoy my work. I have about 5-7 years to go according to my figures. Started following MMM about 6 years ago, and while I never felt I could take the concept to the "extremes" he has, slowly I have been changing my ways and building wealth in the process.....
Thaylor Harmor no one ever truly retires. you have to do something in your time or you will go crazy. i see lots of old people looking after gardens in retirement and they obviously enjoy it. so why not find a job doing that in your working days
OK as far as how much, but specifically how do you decide what to take the money from? If stock prices are high and bond prices are low, draw only from securities and leave bonds alone, then vice versa, or always draw a bit from both? That is the complicated question.
+Video School Online Is this calculation based on stats for the US bonds and stock market and the US rate of inflation? In India the inflation rate has fluctuated a lot over the decades so would the 4% rule hold true globally?
One confusing part... Video states that the market has returned 7% on average when dividends are reinvested. However, in retirement, dividends become the income and don't get reinvested. So how do we keep the 7% average when the dividends are no longer reinvested?
Can anyone pls clarify the 4% adjusted for inflation? Is it 4% of your initial nest egg or present value? If your investment drops in value, would you be withdrawing 4% of that reduced investment?
In the long run this works well . Trick is to adjust your withdrawals during downturns as 4 percent of a much lower portfolio should cause you to adjust your spending or add income via a 2nd job.
But the 7% market return is already adjusted for inflation (gross returns are over 10% on average), so it would seem that you could safely withdraw 7%, right?
Hi Phil, is it 7% avg annual return for investments overall or for just stocks. In another video, you mentioned that it's 7% for stocks. Please clarify. Thanks.
What about taxes on the investment gains? I never hear anyone mention that when talking about 4% rule. Should I simply add expected taxes on the yearly spending sum?
nice video, my only concern, you're saying there is an average of return of 7%. Have you seen 7% returns in your brokerage account? Or are you taking government or Wall Street numbers?
While I think this 4% (or 3%) rule has a lot of logic, this can't be applied directly to everybody. In many countries/territories, you will have to pay taxes on the money you withdraw form your savings. The are a lot of different governemental programs and it probably is different everywhere, but, to continue with your 40000$/year expenses for a family; in order to have 40000$ cash (ready to be spent), the family will have to withdraw more (and in many places a lot more). Sure, as you said, those countries/territories would probably also have retirement plans for their retired people which would provide a certain amount of money troughout the year that you didn't take into account and that will probably counter balance a part of the taxes you'll have to pay, but probably not everything depending on your situation. Basically, I think this video is good to demonstrate that it's not so hard to calculate what you'd really need to retire. Just wanted to clarify that this 4% rule will not apply to everybody everywhere, and that it also doesn't allow for any extra expense unless you have an annual budget for ''extra'' taken into account.
What type of acct are u using to invest if it's not a retirement acct like a Roth IRA? I guess I'm confused about the ability to withdraw from ur investment if ur not at least 59 yrs old.
You can withdraw principle from your ROTH before 59 without any penalty. You can also look into loopholes to move money from a traditional IRA/401k into your ROTH if your goal is to retire early, just search for "roth conversion ladder" and "roth Rule 72(t)".
Great video thank you my dream is to retire at 55 my savings still far off to make my dream come true, but I will try hard by reducing housing cars and add a short term portfolio to live 5 years at 60 I can take 4% and I take social security at 70 that should be achivable
hey conlious nice to hear something worthy from u.I m from India where in my native state I want to start up with a concept where all d graduates and post graduates can get skilled themselves with the help of my videos and knowledge where ill make them to get their dream jobs in here how can i start shud i go wid youtube or with my website where they will get daily fresh videos and how i should be getting profits
In today's world with bonds at 2% I'm not sure the 60/40 rule and 4% withdrawal still holds true? What say you? Unlikely bonds will ever return to their former glory
It's when you lend money to a corporation, and they pay you interest. It's like a savings account at the bank, but because a company can got bankrupt you get a higher interest rate as compensation for that risk.
Big isse with this vid: On what markets (location nad period) and on what investments do you measure 7% growth and 3% inflation? You know that USA, UK, Western Europe and Easter Europe have vastly different numbers for those, right? You know that different financial instruments will give different ror in the same given time? You do count taxes, right?
4% withdrawal rate is too low for those who retire early and have the means to grow the asset way beyond that. My wife has managed growth in our investment net worth an average of 12% which is crazy good, and we both retired in our 50's. Our withdrawal rate is right at 8% which allows us to index inflation and experience some real growth though slight. And we are prepared for cutting back in hard times. This works well for us, but is everybody going to be able to grow this well in retirement? Most folk should follow a safer, less aggressive route.
So I work for a state hospital they take 7% of my check which is good. I also have an optional 403b acct and take 5% there. I figure save it before I send on something stupid lol ...
People should be aware that the 4% rule gives you only a rough estimate. You made this clear in the video but I feel you could have stretched it a bit more. 1. If I spend 25 000 yearly now, 4%-rule says I need 500 000. But if I need 15 years to get to that number Inflation will increase my yearly expenses to over 30 000 so I need around 750 000 to cover the expenses at the time I retire 2. In the trinity study (and this you should totally have mentioned) success was defined to having 1$ or more left. They don't tell us what the average or median left over money was, but what if the average left over money after 30 years was only 100$? It is easily possible to be good for 30 years but fail after 35 or something like that. So one of the most important points you made, was that you have additional income from social security and by doing paid "work". For someone who does not have this additional income the 4% rule can well be to dangerous.
The Median balance in a 401k at age 65 is only 126,000 dollars which under the 4% rule is $5,040 a year and $420 a month. One Million is a very small segment of American retirees.
I'd like to think that, if you place your investments wisely, you can get closer to 8-10, maybe even 12% interest. A bit hard to do in an often limited 401k plan though.
What concerns me about this logix is how things are changing: Yes 1913 to 2016 inflation = average 3.27% And yes 1913 to now = average market ROR 6.XX% But 2 problems with this model: 1) current rate to date average ROR is 5.47%, and depending how you do it weighted averages can be as low as 4.27%. 2) more recent inflation (1974 to now) averages out closer to 4.11% and no longer includes things like food and fuel so in practice is more. Those 2 numbers are far to close to one another for my liking.
Your inflation numbers are wrong. When you account for harmonic adjustment , substitution and the fact that food and fuel are not included in the real rate of inflation.
Zorn101 so, what do you think the historical average rate of inflation is then, if you think these items you mentioned should go into the calculation? Do you know why the items you mentioned, if they are actually excluded, are excluded by those that calculate the inflation rate?
Historical rate of inflation? Inflation is dynamic and now varies so erratically that moving average over decade moves erratically. The government's published figures have as much relationship to reality as the unemployment rate. The total value of the monetary supply is meaningless when the government can print as much as it wants, whenever it wants and can charge whatever it wants to loan it to banks. The true rate of inflation is determined average desire for consumption, and actual productivity, not monetary supply, GDP or any other econometric. The fake one looks at the cost of a standardized selection of things, year after year. It doesn't matter what a 1970's standard basket of goods costs if everyone now wants to fill theirs with champagne and caviar, smartphones and 4K 40" TV sets, and "earns"their livings sitting on both fictitious. their butts clicking computer mice. The "value" of goods produced and the dollars spent to produce them are fictitious numbers with no objective reality, not even in hours of "labor".
The flaw in 0:36 is many have the assets in taxable investments so technically speaking, if you need $40,000 a year net to live on, you'll need something more closer to $1.2 million.
Pretty good video, Sir. Have you ever done one on annual Roth Conversions, the goal of which is to minimize the big, wet bite Uncle Sam takes out of one's IRA starting at age 70 1/2? I'm hoping that by using this strategy, my Required Minimum Distributions will be less than the sum of the Standard Deduction plus the Personal Exemption, resulting in no Federal Income Tax on those RMDs...100% legally.
I was excited to watch this video and then I heard the voice of a 20 year old....How about someone who is retired? Can we get some experience behind these hopes and dreams please?
You could calculate how much your expenses will be, and subtract your pensions - and use that to understand how much you need to retire with the 4% rule.
Retired in an unlucky year? What a crock! Here is some good finical advice "Don't retire in an unlucky year!" How do you tell if it is an unlucky year? Sacrifice a chicken and roll the dice!
An unlucky year would have been 2008 crash. Many elderly stockholders panicked and sold their stocks thinking they were going to zero. Others could not retire and had to keep working after the 2008 crash.
If you are planning to retire in the near future you can't be heavily invested in stocks for this exact reason. Or if you are, have an emergency fund to cope with a down market for a few years, stay the course.
The Monte Carlo curve and 4% creates a whole new issue being that it is often not feasible to create the amount of assets to generate the amount of income needed to have full income replacement. Meaning I need to replace $100,000 a year income. But to spend like $100k in 30 years I need to make $250,000 a year due to inflation. So after social security and subtracting house, car and savings I would need need about $180,000 income to live like I live today. That means I would need to have $4.5 million in assets to generate the income needed to maintain my lifestyle. I have found that using the 2 economic powers to create my own covered asset or pension strategy allows me to generate more income guaranteed while investing less over time.
Planning retirement has never been this confusing! First SVB, then Signature bank and now First republic, these are all the signs of yet another 2008 market crash and recession 2.0, so my question is do I still save in the United States dollar, or could this be a good time to buy stocks? So I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here,
Everyone needs a different stream of income , unfortunately having a job doesn't mean security due to the high rate of tax , one needs to move ahead their expectation, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for now. Instead, it would be prudent to consider retaining a portion of your assets in gold. Alternatively, seeking advice from a financial advisor could provide valuable guidance in this matter.
@@sherryie2 true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
@@corrySledd Do you mind sharing info on the adviser who assisted you? been saving for pension since age 18 - company scheme. along the way I hit higher tax, so I added to my company pension with a SIPP (tax benefits) I'm 46 now and would love to grow my finance more aggressively, there are a few cars I still wish to drive, a few mega holidays, etc.
@@McElvinn credits to NICOLE DESIREE SIMON, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up
@@corrySledd Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her
I believe the retirement crisis will get even worse. Many struggle to save due to low wages, rising prices, and exorbitant rents. With homeownership becoming unattainable for middle-class Americans, they may not have a home to rely on for retirement either.
Consider buying stocks when the economy is not doing well, like during a recession. It could be a chance to buy them at a lower price and sell later when prices go up. Just keep in mind, this isn't financial advice, but sometimes it's better than keeping a lot of cash.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial. Some use hedging or defensive assets in their portfolio for market downturns. Seeking financial advice is vital. This approach has kept me financially secure for over five years, with a return on investment of nearly $1 million.
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I retired this year at 40 my childhood dream come true
That's awesome! Congrats! any tips?
Sunil J - ya pls share ur exp.8006666130
Sunil J congrats
Now Sunil J will have to invent more lies just to answer your question. What a pain! Be kind to him folks! Common, who in the hell 'dreams' of retiring? that too in one's childhood, total bullshit!
I did not think it important to respond to your note, since I do not have to prove to anyone.
However, I decided to honour the person who is encouraging others.
Just because you think it is not possible, does not mean it does not exist or is not true.
The biggest part of financial freedom is to stop being greedy - drawing the line, apart from having to create your stand alone cash flow. Btw, all of it is not given to me through generations.
I have built my own independent flows, thanks to the almighty for the dream and the opportunities, I got and capitalized on.
it's good to plan for the future but don't get addicted to it, at least live a little today.
anything can happen, health issue, death,
Retiring early is possible but tough, it definitely requires discipline and big sacrifices. It’s not only about saving, the huge step is boosting earning capacity. I’m glad I got into stocks and recently understood and purchased my first NFT.
Not everyone has their financial freedom so well sorted out, it’s ideal to get in early on some investment opportunities.
@Sean Roger I’m aware of Dan Raziel, how reliable has he been, and how profitable are his trades on a monthly basis ?
Financial freedom is about control. control over your financial present and your financial future, it all comes down to investing right.
Congrats on your now-expensive NFT 🎂
Very good information. I have been living on a budget of $1,200 per month including health care and traveling the world. I think this may be a good option for some. Ecuador and Thailand are both very affordable and my lifestyle, for the most part, is greatly improved. I would love to team up with someone to create some workshops to bring this information to those that are interested.
Living Overseas TV sounds interesting, should start a blog
I retired this year at 58. I won't even tap into my holdings. I will be reinvesting still, for quite a few years. I live in Europe, get an American pension, and will work just a little bit. I firmly believe in living below your means.....if you can
Fleck can you share where in Europe you live and if you own a home there. if so, how did you acquire the house?
Do your research, there's no way you can copy exactly what he does.
Here's something to strive for. Well done!
i am not interesting in recreating what Fleck has achieved, i simply want to know how he went about purchasing property in Europe and if he used financing from an american institution.
He will be living in Europe, but siphoning cash from the USA at the same time?
I retired this year at age 11
I retired retroactively from the creation of the universe until about 20 years ago.
J Vuski llp
LOL
Scam
J Vuski me too
Thank you so very much for sharing this!
Simple and clear. Good work.
Nice accounting. Helped me out a lot. Made perfect sense once you explained it.
A really good video, retirement it's a crucial point in our lives many forget to plan for.
Great video - clear and simple
Great video with some very good data to explain the 4% rule. I would add that the increase in your stock investment account would include not only dividends, as you mention, but also capital gains, and both would be left in the account. The magic of compounding can do a lot without much work over many years. Thanks for your thorough video.
Great video, I enjoyed it, I was thinking of making a very similar video explaining how I retired at 24/25 with the 4% SWR
ATTENTION: At 1:07 it says 50/50 stocks and bonds. At 3:07 it is a chart of 100% stocks. Overall I agree and like the video. Each do what you want, but 100% stocks investment, with dollar cost average and a drip for me. I studied the stock chart also going back the 100 years even the great depression. One day I need to make a video of explaining how simple investing really is vs risk and reward. Man I would have liked to know what I know now 20 years ago.
The stock chart isn't saying that you should be 100% into stocks.
Great video 👍🏾
Very informative.
Thank you for explaining the 4% rule in a simple way to understand. I love personal finance!!!
+Conilious “Brutus” Neequaye glad you enjoyed this!
Nice video and good advice. Thank you for making it.
+Stanley George thank you!
Seems insane. If you worked 40 uninterrupted years saving 25% of your gross with 8% returns you won't even have 30 times your salary after inflation.
And That's a lot of saving without considering sackings, illnesses, divorce, swindles or any other reversals!!!
Very helpful. Best explanation I have heard of the 4% rule.
Good video, am grateful I made an early move toward retirement that has benefited me so much lately.
Wow that was a really good ad, I thought it was the video. But then I noticed the skip ad button. Pretty effective but I wised up just in time before the pitch.
Cool video!
The Norwegian Government is using this for retirees and healthcare in Norway :P
Great video
Very informative. Thanks
ಫ್ಲಾಯ್ನ್ ರೆಬೆಲ್ಲೊ Hi bro. .. it won't work in our country... since our inflation rate is @ 8% :(
Nice video as always! ;)
+SlenderBird | 2D Design thank you!
1) Become debt free
2) Have a years salary saved for emergencies
3) Now work when ever you want to.
Far better than social insecurity.
+TKD COW haha yep
Video School Online Can’t get rid of obamacare, Social security will always be there because too many “voters” depend on it
Thanks for that very informative. Ive been investing in the real estate market, done pretty well out of it but looking for something more liquid. Any funds you recommend?
To keep with the idea of living below my means next month I'm moving into a smaller box on a busier street. I hope the increased traffic noise will take my mind off my smaller quarters.
I retired at the start of this year only 7 months after conception, 60 days or so and I'll pop out ready to party.
There is simpler way if you can afford it.
Buy properties where the population is still growing, rent them as income. Keep renting them and hold these properties until you decide to quit being landlord. Maybe at age 75 or so.
Sell the properties, invest the proceed in blue chips dividend stocks or bonds.
Inflation will incrase your property value till the time you decide to sell them
Dividends and bonds coupon will support your monthly living cost.
Good advice, but most people dont really consider real estate investing, If you do it right you can 10% returns and increase in value too like you said
Andy Pagakis I agree, that is why I said “if you can afford it” and definately not for everyone. Your 1st investment property (which is usually your second property-since your first property is for living) will drain you! But if you keep on doing it right, after the rent income coming in from your several properties, your 4th or 5th property will become very affordable (assuming there is no huge spike or crash in property price in very short time).
I am lucky that I have been able to do it. The rent will support my living cost. The capital gains accumulating until my retirement year will be the long term “timed deposit”. Reaching retirement years most of them can be sold and I’ll switch to fixed income papers like blue chip investment stocks and invt grade corp bonds for my living cost.
LMAO I would not want to put up with tenants.
me neither, i factored in property management in my 10%
stangtrax most of mine are nice people who maintained my houses quite well.
Can always screen them before signing the lease agreement
S&p averages just under 10% every year with reinvestment.
How do you go about taking the 4% from the non retirement accounts before hitting 60? Do you take the entire 4% at the beginning of the year and live off that or take it during the course of the year? And how do you decide where to pull from?
good video
Big fan of Video School Online. This video does an adequate job of discussing the 4% "rule". My only comment though is if you retired in October 2007.
By March 2009, you are now taking 6.6% out of your portfolio. This is called sequence of return risk. It gets overlooked A LOT. And in reality when people are faced with it, they have a hard time staying the course. I've seen it over, and over, again.
Secondly, the 4% rule was based on an era where the 10 Treasury bonds were paying twice what they are now.
With bond rates as they are today, the 4% has been downward adjusted to 3.2%.
Very good EBINER
Really liked your video. Great explanation and details on inflation. I'm personally planning on a 3.3% (30x) rule for myself.
Great job putting this together and giving a shout out to MMM and Mad Fientist. How close are you to FI?
Thanks for the positive comment! My partner just "retired" this year (she's 43), and seeing her do it has me excited to get there.....even though I still enjoy my work. I have about 5-7 years to go according to my figures. Started following MMM about 6 years ago, and while I never felt I could take the concept to the "extremes" he has, slowly I have been changing my ways and building wealth in the process.....
My motivation to retire is so I can volunteer more of my time. I can't fathom "relaxing" doing nothing.
True that!
Thaylor Harmor no one ever truly retires.
you have to do something in your time or you will go crazy.
i see lots of old people looking after gardens in retirement and they obviously enjoy it. so why not find a job doing that in your working days
+coasteys coasteys ... men retire, women never truly get to retire.
prefer the term FI (financial independence) to "retirement"........I enjoy work, and like that I can choose what projects I take on......
I'm hoping to use the "living off dividends" rule. I'll earn 2% or so dividends and get a 7% raise each year.
OK as far as how much, but specifically how do you decide what to take the money from? If stock prices are high and bond prices are low, draw only from securities and leave bonds alone, then vice versa, or always draw a bit from both? That is the complicated question.
so pulling out 4% a year of the fund would leave the same about of principal and it would never go down or go away
Does "yearly expenses" include taxes?
Mama used to say, "It's just as easy to fall in love with a Rich one!".
Good Advice man. I aspire to retire before 2030 :)
I retired (by accident) at age 50.
I really enjoyed this post. I am planning my retirement. I really don't want to work till I am 65. I am want to do it earlier.
Great video.. and you make it easy for everyone to understand. Thanks!
+Video School Online Is this calculation based on stats for the US bonds and stock market and the US rate of inflation? In India the inflation rate has fluctuated a lot over the decades so would the 4% rule hold true globally?
Thx for the vid , i learned new concepts :)
is there any books you can recommend on the 'trinity study' ?
-optimize
I hope to someday retire before I was born.
One confusing part...
Video states that the market has returned 7% on average when dividends are reinvested. However, in retirement, dividends become the income and don't get reinvested. So how do we keep the 7% average when the dividends are no longer reinvested?
Definitely need to get busy saving this shows how behind I am at 50, Uggh. Big challenge with high mid age expenses...
I do love that you used 1900 for stock but 1913 for inflation.
Can anyone pls clarify the 4% adjusted for inflation? Is it 4% of your initial nest egg or present value? If your investment drops in value, would you be withdrawing 4% of that reduced investment?
What kind of investment give surely 7 per cent a year
I retired this year as a zygote.
Sorry, so should I take 4% of my monthly income back or should I invest it?
What to invest in?
No, the 4% is the money you would have to live on *after* retirement. You need to save/invest as much as you can until then....
In the long run this works well . Trick is to adjust your withdrawals during downturns as 4 percent of a much lower portfolio should cause you to adjust your spending or add income via a 2nd job.
But the 7% market return is already adjusted for inflation (gross returns are over 10% on average), so it would seem that you could safely withdraw 7%, right?
Hi Phil, is it 7% avg annual return for investments overall or for just stocks. In another video, you mentioned that it's 7% for stocks. Please clarify. Thanks.
7% is typically a safe annual return for the stock market over the long run.
What about taxes on the investment gains? I never hear anyone mention that when talking about 4% rule. Should I simply add expected taxes on the yearly spending sum?
Oneofakind
Everyone situation is different. You should be able to figure it out and control your taxes.
nice video, my only concern, you're saying there is an average of return of 7%. Have you seen 7% returns in your brokerage account? Or are you taking government or Wall Street numbers?
Yep... with index funds.
S&P 500 returned 12% last year 2016 and has a 10 year compound return of 8.1% I've had many years of double digit returns.
While I think this 4% (or 3%) rule has a lot of logic, this can't be applied directly to everybody. In many countries/territories, you will have to pay taxes on the money you withdraw form your savings. The are a lot of different governemental programs and it probably is different everywhere, but, to continue with your 40000$/year expenses for a family; in order to have 40000$ cash (ready to be spent), the family will have to withdraw more (and in many places a lot more).
Sure, as you said, those countries/territories would probably also have retirement plans for their retired people which would provide a certain amount of money troughout the year that you didn't take into account and that will probably counter balance a part of the taxes you'll have to pay, but probably not everything depending on your situation.
Basically, I think this video is good to demonstrate that it's not so hard to calculate what you'd really need to retire. Just wanted to clarify that this 4% rule will not apply to everybody everywhere, and that it also doesn't allow for any extra expense unless you have an annual budget for ''extra'' taken into account.
Maximilien Bisson XX
Glad you said it and taxes were not taken out either. Why no one accounts for that makes no sense but normally they don’t.
You say invest in bonds. What type of bonds. What rating status? And in stocks. Do you mean purely in stocks or some in mutual funds or etfs
i couldnt understand the calculation. what 25 times? 3%?
What type of acct are u using to invest if it's not a retirement acct like a Roth IRA? I guess I'm confused about the ability to withdraw from ur investment if ur not at least 59 yrs old.
You can withdraw principle from your ROTH before 59 without any penalty. You can also look into loopholes to move money from a traditional IRA/401k into your ROTH if your goal is to retire early, just search for "roth conversion ladder" and "roth Rule 72(t)".
Great video thank you my dream is to retire at 55 my savings still far off to make my dream come true, but I will try hard by reducing housing cars and add a short term portfolio to live 5 years at 60 I can take 4% and I take social security at 70 that should be achivable
I was born retired ::drops mic::
at 2:45 its not 7%-3%, its 1.07*0.97=1.0379, so 3.79%
thats how math works ;)
Thank you
You're welcome Annette!
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In today's world with bonds at 2% I'm not sure the 60/40 rule and 4% withdrawal still holds true? What say you? Unlikely bonds will ever return to their former glory
Two thumbs up!
Sorry, I'm not very instructed in this stuff and english isn't really my first languaje, what are bonds exactly?
It's when you lend money to a corporation, and they pay you interest. It's like a savings account at the bank, but because a company can got bankrupt you get a higher interest rate as compensation for that risk.
Ohh I see, thanks.
Its also a loan to a government, which are less likely to become bankrupt, so pay less interest. Just be careful with bonds from Greece etc :D
BONDS are something you should not invest in. Bonds are something that doesn't preform well compared to S&P 500.
Big isse with this vid: On what markets (location nad period) and on what investments do you measure 7% growth and 3% inflation? You know that USA, UK, Western Europe and Easter Europe have vastly different numbers for those, right? You know that different financial instruments will give different ror in the same given time? You do count taxes, right?
4% withdrawal rate is too low for those who retire early and have the means to grow the asset way beyond that.
My wife has managed growth in our investment net worth an average of 12% which is crazy good, and we both retired in our 50's.
Our withdrawal rate is right at 8% which allows us to index inflation and experience some real growth though slight. And we are prepared for cutting back in hard times.
This works well for us, but is everybody going to be able to grow this well in retirement?
Most folk should follow a safer, less aggressive route.
So I work for a state hospital they take 7% of my check which is good. I also have an optional 403b acct and take 5% there. I figure save it before I send on something stupid lol ...
make a video on what is bonds.
People should be aware that the 4% rule gives you only a rough estimate. You made this clear in the video but I feel you could have stretched it a bit more.
1. If I spend 25 000 yearly now, 4%-rule says I need 500 000. But if I need 15 years to get to that number Inflation will increase my yearly expenses to over 30 000 so I need around 750 000 to cover the expenses at the time I retire
2. In the trinity study (and this you should totally have mentioned) success was defined to having 1$ or more left. They don't tell us what the average or median left over money was, but what if the average left over money after 30 years was only 100$? It is easily possible to be good for 30 years but fail after 35 or something like that. So one of the most important points you made, was that you have additional income from social security and by doing paid "work". For someone who does not have this additional income the 4% rule can well be to dangerous.
I'm 47 and I've 6 houses at 2 countries worth 3.5 million us with an 11% mortgage and still hard working
How do u get 7%???
The Median balance in a 401k at age 65 is only 126,000 dollars which under the 4% rule is $5,040 a year and $420 a month. One Million is a very small segment of American retirees.
i retired from having offtime with 14.
I'd like to think that, if you place your investments wisely, you can get closer to 8-10, maybe even 12% interest. A bit hard to do in an often limited 401k plan though.
What concerns me about this logix is how things are changing:
Yes 1913 to 2016 inflation = average 3.27%
And yes 1913 to now = average market ROR 6.XX%
But 2 problems with this model:
1) current rate to date average ROR is 5.47%, and depending how you do it weighted averages can be as low as 4.27%.
2) more recent inflation (1974 to now) averages out closer to 4.11% and no longer includes things like food and fuel so in practice is more.
Those 2 numbers are far to close to one another for my liking.
Your inflation numbers are wrong.
When you account for harmonic adjustment , substitution and the fact that food and fuel are not included in the real rate of inflation.
Zorn101 so, what do you think the historical average rate of inflation is then, if you think these items you mentioned should go into the calculation? Do you know why the items you mentioned, if they are actually excluded, are excluded by those that calculate the inflation rate?
Historical rate of inflation?
Inflation is dynamic and now varies so erratically that moving average over decade moves erratically. The government's published figures have as much relationship to reality as the unemployment rate.
The total value of the monetary supply is meaningless when the government can print as much as it wants, whenever it wants and can charge whatever it wants to loan it to banks.
The true rate of inflation is determined average desire for consumption, and actual productivity, not monetary supply, GDP or any other econometric. The fake one looks at the cost of a standardized selection of things, year after year.
It doesn't matter what a 1970's standard basket of goods costs if everyone now wants to fill theirs with champagne and caviar, smartphones and 4K 40" TV sets, and "earns"their livings sitting on both fictitious. their butts clicking computer mice.
The "value" of goods produced and the dollars spent to produce them
are fictitious numbers with no objective reality, not even in hours of "labor".
The flaw in 0:36 is many have the assets in taxable investments so technically speaking, if you need $40,000 a year net to live on, you'll need something more closer to $1.2 million.
You did the best and most concise explanation of the 4% rule. Great video
Pretty good video, Sir.
Have you ever done one on annual Roth Conversions, the goal of which is to minimize the big, wet bite Uncle Sam takes out of one's IRA starting at age 70 1/2? I'm hoping that by using this strategy, my Required Minimum Distributions will be less than the sum of the Standard Deduction plus the Personal Exemption, resulting in no Federal Income Tax on those RMDs...100% legally.
I'll come back and watch this video once I reach 20 I'm a little too young for this
The earlier you start the higher your return will be
ANTONETTE GO nmpp
your not to young man get started
Good plan. Your current executable retirement plan is to get educated to pull in a high future income.
I'm 20 and I regret not starting early, though be advised you should learn more before you make any major decision
I was excited to watch this video and then I heard the voice of a 20 year old....How about someone who is retired? Can we get some experience behind these hopes and dreams please?
+Ethan Wormell I would check out MrMoneyMustache.com, he's what I've based a lot of my knowledge on.
How do you factor in life time pensions?
You could calculate how much your expenses will be, and subtract your pensions - and use that to understand how much you need to retire with the 4% rule.
help i dont get it i hate math how to calculate? is it like example 300k annual income -4%? then thats the monthly investment?
im just 19 y/o who hates math 😭
what is the x25 for?
SEEMS TO ME THAT AN INDEX OR VARIABLE INSURANCE CONTRACT COULD ASSIST GREATLY
Can't wait until I retire at age 17 #blessed
Retired in an unlucky year?
What a crock!
Here is some good finical advice "Don't retire in an unlucky year!"
How do you tell if it is an unlucky year?
Sacrifice a chicken and roll the dice!
I have a floor to my retirement so I can take any year.
An unlucky year would have been 2008 crash. Many elderly stockholders panicked and sold their stocks thinking they were going to zero. Others could not retire and had to keep working after the 2008 crash.
If you are planning to retire in the near future you can't be heavily invested in stocks for this exact reason. Or if you are, have an emergency fund to cope with a down market for a few years, stay the course.
The Monte Carlo curve and 4% creates a whole new issue being that it is often not feasible to create the amount of assets to generate the amount of income needed to have full income replacement. Meaning I need to replace $100,000 a year income. But to spend like $100k in 30 years I need to make $250,000 a year due to inflation. So after social security and subtracting house, car and savings I would need need about $180,000 income to live like I live today. That means I would need to have $4.5 million in assets to generate the income needed to maintain my lifestyle. I have found that using the 2 economic powers to create my own covered asset or pension strategy allows me to generate more income guaranteed while investing less over time.