NFL Survivor EXPERT WINNING Analysis Week 12
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.พ. 2025
- Week 12 of NFL Survivor is here, and the decisions are getting TOUGH! This video breaks down the best picks and strategies for navigating the treacherous waters of your survivor pool. Whether you're in a small pool, a massive pool, or somewhere in between, we've got you covered.
We'll analyze the top contenders for Week 12, considering not only their win probability THIS week but also their FUTURE VALUE. Don't get trapped by a short-sighted pick! We'll discuss how to maximize your chances of lasting the entire season.
This week's analysis includes:
Top Picks for All Pool Sizes: We'll examine the safest picks for those prioritizing short-term survival, as well as riskier options for those looking to differentiate in larger pools.
Future Value Deep Dive: We'll explore which teams offer the best value down the line, helping you plan your strategy for weeks to come. Avoid getting stuck with no good options later!
Specific Team Breakdowns: We'll discuss teams like Pittsburgh, Miami, Houston, Denver, and more, analyzing their matchups, potential pitfalls, and overall outlook.
Circa Survivor Considerations: For those in Circa Survivor pools, we'll address the added wrinkle of Thanksgiving games and the weekend slate, offering tailored advice to navigate this unique format.
Survivor Grid Insights: We'll incorporate data from Survivor Grid to understand popular picks and leverage that information to your advantage.
Don't make a blind pick! Watch this video BEFORE locking in your Week 12 survivor pick and increase your odds of making it to the end. Like and subscribe for weekly survivor strategy and advice! #NFLSurvivor #Week12 #SurvivorPicks #NFL #Football #PickAdvice #GamblingTwitter #SurvivorPool #FutureValue #CircaSurvivorGet
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Thanks!
Very kind of you thank you!
I have been commenting here avery week and here is the best advice! Will do WAS this week then KC next week on both my entries (two strikes left). Not overthinking it!
Bye
7 people left. I’ve used Seattle, Houston, Baltimore,TB,wash, buffalo, Denver,Philly,Cin, Chargers, Detroit. Thoughts on this week? I could take KC but puts me in a tough spot next week. Miami this week and KC next maybe?
thats the most optimal
Head to head
I've taken:
Detroit
Cinci
San Fran
Washington
Seattle
Chargers
Chicago
Las Vegas
Broncos
Vikings
Eagles
Hrs already used KC, which I think I'm going with today. Is that the prudent pick?
@@greghill1106 I think you go with KC today and hopefully win it.
I have MIN, PIT, and MIA available to me this week. 8 left no buybacks remaining... really don't like this week but I'm leaning PIT against the browns. Thoughts? Thanks for the content!!
Tough to pass on Miami. You wont need them again and its the higher line.
I’m in the same spot. I have KC left too but if I use KC this week I really have nothing good for next week. (Do I?) If I use Miami this week I can save KC for next week then go Pitt and Baltimore weeks 14 15. (Depending on how pitt does tonight) lol There are only 7 ppl left in my pool for 10k. But I hate to lose with Miami this week leaving KC on the table. Idk if I trust the dolphins . Also have Minnesota and Cincinnati left too. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks
@jillnapolitano4809 Miami will be better than any option you have for next week if you took KC this week
Thanks Statsational for the insight. Although we were the only one on DET last week, no eliminations and all 7 survived. Only good news is someone took PIT last Thursday and got KO'd, so one down. Options a bit slim with either WSH or MIA on my side, while some could go KC and HOU. Not sure what the next few weeks could look like if we take WSH now. Or should it be MIA, WSH and then TB? Thanks again!
@@Junkosei100 yeah it's tricky. I'd probably gamble a bit with Miami and use Washington next week
Thanks again Statsational. Will hope for the best with MIA and move on to next week.
Appreciate the content. I have WAS, KC, DET, Philly, BUF, BALT remaining. 130 ppl left in a 1.5 mil pool. Is the OPTIMAL move WAS this week, Detroit next week, and then KC week 15 @cleveland?
Thank you!
I’m one of three left in my league. I have played SEA, LAC, CLE, SF, WSH HOU, BUF, DEN PHI MIN, DET. The other two players have taken: player 1- MIA , LAC, KC, SF ,BAL, PHI, BUF, DEN, MIN CHI, DET and player 2- SEA, LAC, CIN, SF, CHI, PHI, BUF, DEN, BAL MIN DET. Should I play KC or wait until Thanksgiving? If wait, play Miami?
Yeah the option is KC or Miami. One of your opponents can take KC. They also have Was available. They likely take Was and use KC next week. There is a good chance they both take Wash this week. If you knew they both had Was you would be in good shape regardless of who you take because you can knock them both out with one bullet which is what we are hoping to do.
Player 1 is likely going Was or Hou/Was or Hou/TB or Pit
Player 2 is likely going Was/KC/TB or Pit
If you go Miami then KC then TB or Pit you are for sure by yourself this week. Next week you are likely on the same side as player 2. In week 14 you are choosing between TB and Pit like everyone else.
If you go KC this week then TB then Pit it gives you the highest EV(expected value) because you will be potentially by yourself on KC this week and then TB by yourself next week. We are hoping player 2 doesn't take KC this week.
I got KC-HOU-WSH-TB for the next 4 weeks. What are your thoughts on the play to make?
16 spots left out of 3000
I think you take Was/kc/tb the next 3 weeks.
@ thank god I took KC!!! Tough matchups but this week I was leaning WSH over TB/HOU. Whats your take??
@mr.snipes8131 how many are left?
9 people left. Have double pick weeks this week and next week. Still have KC, MIA, Wsh, Min, Atl, Pit, LAR available. I think the optimal path to minimize risk is to take KC and MIA as I think only one other person can take both those teams this week. Next week it will have to be Wsh and the second pick may get a little dicey. It may have to be either Min or LAR
@@kurthaberle4698 I would agree with how you are thinking about it. With double picks especially, you have to take Miami this week
I am in a small pool with 15 left. I am leaning towards Miami this week Chiefs next then Eagles in week 14. I also have Texans available for this week? thx for any advice
@@PaulIlg-b9w I think this is the way to go. Did you take Detroit last week? Would have been great to have taken Miami. You may never use them now.
Out of the top teams I only have TB, KC, & DET left... thoughts? Leaning TB this week
@@pakkinlee2479 how many people left?
@@SharpAppSportsBetting 21 people
With Nick Bosa and Brock Purdy both out against Green Bay in Green Bay would you look at them as an option over my other options going forward in KC, Washington, Houston and Detroit? I’m not trying to get cute just trying to maximize my options going forward and with San Francisco all banged up I’m starting to think that the Packers might be worth a shot. What do you think? If I don’t hear from you here’s wishing you a Happy Thanksgiving! Take care and be well.
Large pool down to 25. I've used the Saints, Texans, Seahawks, 49ers, Commanders, Falcons, Bills, Lions, Bengals, Chargers, and Dolphins. Looking ahead at the next few weeks and thinking of one of the following options below for Weeks 12-18. What are your thoughts or recommendations? Thank you!
1) KC - Denver - Minn - Balt - Arizona - TB - Philly
2) Denver - KC - Pitt - Arizona - GB - Philly - Balt
@@cubanmangoes I'd go KC Denver but I'd seriously consider Phi week 14 the pool may end before week Phi may also not be playing for anything the last week.
@@SharpAppSportsBetting that is a thought I been thinking for a couple years now.
ANY team I select , I want them to have stakes on the line.
At this point , I will be playing NO team that has clinched a Bye week , their division title , OR simply cannot move up their playoff seeds. Of course much of this ONLY applies to week 16-18. But anyhow....
I believe many folks overlook this theory. Your thoughts ?
@@jimmyloinelkelly it's near impossible for that to happen in week 16. Week 17 there may be one. But week 18 could be many. You will have options in week 18 you aren't thinking about now
@ cubanmangoes This is a scenario that may not be possible for you. But if you could possibly make it to Week 18 with these following teams available MIA ( Which I Know you don't have now ) Philly, GB , LAR , ATL , And TB I PROMISE you that One ( maybe 2 or 3 ) Of these games will have SOMETHING to play for and will be busting their hump to win these games. These teams could work as insurance policies.
Meaning they available if things go a rye.
Maybe not realistic but would be golden 4 someone to reach that position.
I believe if someone's failed 2 plan
Then they plan 2 fail.
But best wishes to you anyways. 😃
@@SharpAppSportsBettingThank you! I didn't think of that.
My pool is down to 14. I have KC,TB, Houston this week I’m leaning to Houston. How would you play it?
@@joannedwards I think I like Houston this week with KC next week
3 of us left, I’ve used Detroit and KC
Leaning Miami or tampa but more Miami.
1 person hasn’t used KC and the other is like me and used both KC ANd Detroit already.
Would you go Miami here ?thanks
@@Itscristianboii you'll need Tampa in a couple of weeks so I think you have to use Miami
@ yea I agree they have some favorable matchups the next 3weeks . Thanks
21 people left in my pool, is the move still to take Washington this week and Kansas City on Black Friday?
@@quisedawg1914 yes that's the optimal path
Just like that we’re down to 18 (17 I don’t include myself) 3 people took Pittsburgh last night. What a dicey move that backfired
@quisedawg1914 not a smart play but that's why when we get to very few left we don't want to get too cute. Others will.
@@SharpAppSportsBetting lmfao all those bogus ass metrics lol FOH
@quisedawg1914 what was incorrect?
1-Ivan) Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Lions, Bengals, Vikings, Texans
2-Ivan) Chiefs, Texans, Commanders, Lions, Eagles, Chargers, Rams
3-Momma) Commanders, Falcons, Bills, Steelers, Ravens, Vikings, Broncos
4-Doug) Commanders, Texans, Bills, Lions, Chiefs , Vikings , Packers
5-Beth) Chiefs, Texans, Commanders, Lions, Eagles, Chargers, Vikings
6-Randy) Bears, Texans, Bills, Lions, Ravens, Chargers, Dolphins
Love the content, wish I could have found it sooner, 5 people left, I still have 2 slots, this is everyone and their past picks. Can you please let me know what you think which teams are best for this week on both of my slots ? Thank you
We started the pool at like week 4 or 5 by the way.
I have 154 people left in my pool. This week is a double pick week. This is the last double pick week in my pool. I have the following favorites available: Kansas City, Minnesota, Green Bay, Arizona and Tampa Bay. I am leaning toward Kansas City and Minnesota. Pretty well set on Kansas City, but which second team should I take this week?
I would lean TB. Who do you have for next week?
@@SharpAppSportsBetting If I take TB this week, I would have MIN, GB and the Rams as possible choices for next week. I won't take MIN next week and don't know when I would use them again. I was hoping to use TB next week against CAR. Would it be better to take TB this week and then use GB or the Rams next week or use MIN this week and then take TB next week? I lean toward the latter.
I have Miami and Houston and Bucs. Got 303 remaining. Any suggestions?
Its tough to pass on Miami with that many left because you wont need Miami again.
29 ppl left. I’ve taken Sea, lac, cle, cin, gb, HOU, wash, det, bal, min, Mia. Thinking of KC and then maybe den next week
i would do exactly that
99 left in circa. 3 options, Steelers Thursday night then come back with KC on Thanksgiving. Or Miami😅then KC on Thanksgiving or KC wk 12 the come back with Green Bay on Thanksgiving. Any opinion?
@@ma416728 any idea of how my KC are left?
@@SharpAppSportsBetting 79 of the 99 remaining have KC. KC has implications on Xmas also.
I am 1 of 4 left and I have used NOR SEA NYJ SF GB PHI WSH DEN BUF LAC DET team 2 has used MIA DET TB SEA PHI BUF LAC NYJ HOU DAL CIN team 3 used NOR HOU SEA SF KC TB LAR DEN PHI BAL DET team 4 used TB WSH NYJ SF DEN ATL BUF PIT PHI MIN DET - I am leaning on HOU but wavering on MIA & KC
My current path wk 13 KC, Pitt, ARZ, ATL, TB and wk 18 BAL
Thoughts?
@@douglaswimberly with just 4 left you want to try and be optimal with the picks and not get too cute. The only exception is if you are confident all of your opponents will be on the same team. Then there is an advantage to getting on a lesser team but that's hard to figure out. As the market stands right now taking Houston this week and KC next week is the optimal path.
Thank you for your feedback - great channel
5 left double elimination and two undefeated so far including myself. I have KC, Wash, GB, Tampa, Philly and Minny left. Person I’m tied with has KC, Wash, GB and Tampa left. What do you think? I’m thinking Washington and KC the next two weeks.
That is the smart way to go. You are playing it as if it were heads up with no losses. Do not worry about being different. You want others to match your pick. This gives you a win win. If you lose they get knocked out and if you win you stay undefeated.
5 people left. I have KC, Mia, Washington , and Pit still available. I’m the only with KC left. 3 people have Pit. 4 people have Washington and 4 people have Mia. Do I play Miami now and drop KC on everyone next week when they might be taking Washington?
I think you take Was and hope the others take Mia. at least one will take Was I am sure. Next week you will have KC solo against much weaker opponents unless someone has Det left.
Should I play KC on every entry I have remaining except one ?
I have one entry without KC Available.
I am taking Hou on that one.
I feel like if KC cannot defeat the worse team in football , then let someone else or several elses win this thing. I do NOT have to play KC next week for 2 reasons.
1. Im not in Circa
2. I do NOT trust that game to even win.
Raiders always play them hard and won this exact game last year against them.
Do you think my attitude about all I have written is solid ?
Or should I reevaluate what my plan is this week ?
I mostly wanna use KC up and forget about them for rest of this year.
@@jimmyloinelkelly I have no problem going all in with them especially since you have one that has to go elsewhere. Just make sure you have solid options for next week.
@SharpAppSportsBetting I have Wash for 1 entry. The other 2 entries I may have to use TB ,Denver , or some other coin flip game. I'm gonna check it again in a few hrs 2 be sure. I may flip and take Miami on one just in case anarchy hits. If I lose one entry this week, that means another 20+% of the pool fell
Absolutely PERFECT day for me in Survivor.
2 days ago I decided to remove my Houston pick ( not sure why ) and replaced them with MIA.
I had 3 entries on Chiefs
ONE on Miami.
Plus ➕ 23% of pool went down from Wash loss.
22% of same pool ALSO went down with Houston's loss.
Will be ready for next week's video to see what I can learn and find.
But yes Great week for ME. Better than I thought it would be.
Finally , SO glad im DONE with KC.
They look God awful Pathetic.
Back for another week! BetOnline Survivor Pool, 36,402 entries, 330 left....if it wasn't for the end-of-game blocked FGs in the last 2 weeks, we would be down to double digits....I've used the following:
Week 1 Sea
Week 2 PIT
Week 3 Jets
Week 4 HOU
Week 5 Den
Week 6 Phi
Week 7 Buf
Week 8 Det
Week 9 Cin
Week 10 LAC
Week 11 Min
Week 12
I initially leaned Was but thinking Mia so that i can use Was in week 13 against Ten. Just wished Brissett was still starting in NE 😆....Saving SF for week 14 if i get there. Thoughts?
@@rochlabelle5070 oh that sucks. 330 left is still a long ways to go. You have KC left. What's your plan for when you want to take them?
@@SharpAppSportsBetting Good point about KC. How could i forget the 2x defending Champs lol. I guess it's comes down to what i prefer; KC this week on the road against Carolina in a bounce back week and Was next week at home against Ten...or Was this week at home against Dal and KC next week against LV. I think i'm gonna go KC this week and barring a huge upset, Was next week. For some reason, as bad as LV is, they always play KC tough
Gotta take KC this week or next...as crazy as it sounds, future value after next week just isn't there
@rochlabelle5070 exactly
@@SharpAppSportsBetting Damn...had a mistake in my spreadsheet about who i took in week 7. I did not take Buffalo that week. I took Washington. So that changes things...Can't go KC this week and Washington next week. I pretty much have to go Miami this week and KC next week....zero future value after this week with Miami...if i survive those next 2 weeks, the good news is that i will have Buffalo available.
The rivalry factor has me thinking KC this week and Washington next week… and then that means 3 weeks out, with the teams I have left, I maybe go Steelers for week 14 instead of the Bucs v Vegas…. And take the Bucs week 17 v Carolina
@@arabianknight241 I don't mind that at all
6 people left. I have Chiefs and Miami as options for this week. Only one other person has Chiefs available. If I use them this week my best option next week looks like the Bucs.
In teams of other players I’m Speculating 2 will be on Washington, two on Houston and one on Miami.
@@KimW1966 how does everyone look next week?
they have options. One person has Chiefs unless they take them this week. One has Detroit. Washington and Houston available to two unless they take them this week. Four have Denver available. I’m the only one having Bucs available.
@@KimW1966 I like that you can be solo with the best team this week and be on your own with TB next week
Thank you, I like that too.
I used Bengals, Bills, Chargers, cowboys, 49ers, Texans, Commanders, Lions, Eagles, Vikings, Dolphins. Should I use KC this week ? I was thinking of using Broncos - Only two of us remaining in survivor pool.
who has your opponent picked so far?
@@SharpAppSportsBetting I don't know all 11 but know she used Packers, Vikings, Ravens, Lions, commanders, Eagles, Seahawks, Bears
I'm going to ask the organizer to send me all 11 picks she has made. We knocked out all the guys - Only two women remaining :-) I laughed when asked to join said I won't make it past two weeks. I have been making all my own decisions but now its getting tougher.
My dads gf plays in a lot of Survivor Pools. She watches this show and messages me about her picks every week. My mom plays as well but she does her own thing. When you are down to just 2 people you want to try and take the optimal path. If you can get her entire list it could change who we want to take. As of now its really close. KC this week and then choose between Den and TB next week or you can go Den or TB this week and KC next. But let's see what she has first.
@@SharpAppSportsBetting This has been my first season of survivor poll. I have learned a great deal just reading up on teams, injuries...etc... But down to the wire. Thanks for the input
28 People left. I have DET, MIN, PIT, BAL, available, single elimination,was hoping to save DET for next week bad idea?
who would you use this week instead?
@@SharpAppSportsBetting Thanks for the response, I took MIN, hope I didn't get too cute.
@@reeddvm not my favorite pick. I'd be taking Detroit
Thanks, I will be back next week if I make it through.@@SharpAppSportsBetting
We all have one loss, no more chances. See my previous comment for advice. Thanks!
I think we are taking KC this week with how your pool is laid out right now.
28 people left we have taken buffalo, Philly, den, det, cin,min. Thanks
@@drock1991 probably Washington then kc
@ thanks thought about doing that or KC this week and Washington next week always get iffy with division games thoughts and I want to save Houston for last week if we make it
Washington and Miami should roll this week. It is getting down to the wire. 250 ppl left out of 35000. 2 pick weeks 12, 13, 16, 17, 18.
Stay focussed people. Don't get cute with away games. Watch for back to back road games, Thursday and Monday games, and pay attention to who is tanking and who NEEDS to win.
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
430 left out of 64K winner gets $545K I already took Min Was Indy SF Mia Chi Buf Den Ten Car and Det. I was thinking Hou this week KC next week Philly in week 14
I cant argue with that line at all
Help! I am one of 34 left. Used Bengals, Bills, Bucs, Texans, Dolphins, Commanders, Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders, Eagles, Chargers. I am one of 34 remaining of 399.
This week usable teams Giants, Lions, Colts,skip the next 4 games.... Vikings, Bears, Cardinals, Seahawks, 49ers, GB, Rams, Ravens.... Please help!! One of 34...
@@wendysellsrealestate tough week for you. Have to take gb then Det next week
Houston or Miami this week?
4 left out of 300. Top 3 pay out.
@@ninanasiadko1393 I'm taking whichever is the bigger favorite before you have to get the pick in. Assuming you have someone better than Houston for next week.
I’ve taken KC, BUF, DET, SF, BAL, SEA, WASH, PHI, CIN, DEN, LA CHARGERS. Thank you!
Would Houston be the better choice next week?
@@ninanasiadko1393 yes they'd be better next week
The bears do stink but they always play the lions tough. I would stay away from them
5 people left Washington, Houston, and Miami all available.
@@falconrf53 who do the others have left?
@SharpAppSportsBetting 3 still have the Chiefs, 1 other has Washington, 4 have Miami, and 2 have Houston
@@falconrf53 I think you take Washington
1-Ivan) Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Lions, Bengals, Vikings, Texans
2-Ivan) Chiefs, Texans, Commanders, Lions, Eagles, Chargers, Rams
3-Momma) Commanders, Falcons, Bills, Steelers, Ravens, Vikings, Broncos
4-Doug) Commanders, Texans, Bills, Lions, Chiefs , Vikings , Packers
5-Beth) Chiefs, Texans, Commanders, Lions, Eagles, Chargers, Vikings
6-Randy) Bears, Texans, Bills, Lions, Ravens, Chargers, Dolphins
Love the content, wish I could have found it sooner, 5 people left, I still have 2 slots, this is everyone and their past picks. Can you please let me know what you think which teams are best for this week on both of my slots ? Thank you
I am glad you found me eventually. Welcome!
For entry 1 Washington is the clear choice. For entry 2 I think Miami is the best option. With so few in the pool you want to try and stay with the most optimal picks. The big advantage with Washington is you may be the only one taking them this week.
Thank you so much !!!!!!