Breaking down the Ullmark trade
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ก.ย. 2024
- The Bruins have broken up the best goalie tandem in the league by trading Vein winner Linus Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators. Not all Boston fans are happy with the return. Did the Bruins leave some value on the table?
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Don’t get the hype for Detroit as a legit team.
They had a crazy team sh% and that covered up a lot of issues. Mostly that they gave up a lot on defence and that they rarely controlled play in any of the games they played. Lot of hockey fans think they were some offensive juggernaut when they actually finished something like 49 goals above expected last year. Like Seattle two years ago (who also had a high sh%) it’s more likely they take a step back next year vs becoming a legit playoff team.
Then you compare them to Ottawa. The Sens were actually much better defensively than they get credit for. They weren’t amazing or anything but they were firmly average/above average defensively. They just happened to have the worst tandem in hockey last year. Every mistake tended to end up in the back of their own net since their goalies were trash. Replace Korpisalo (arguably the worst goalie last year) with Ullmark and the Sens have a strong chance to make playoffs.
Don’t think it’s a lock that Detroit finishes above Ottawa (or Buffalo) next year. Teams always regress to the mean.
We get a functional back up goalie who goalie Bob will turn into a stud and perform much better under our defensive structure and considering he played too many games , he should look better in a bruins logo. Now kastelvic is a big body(think maroon) but he's fast. Normally we get an old big body that's slow. This guys quick plus he was 100% in the dot on pp and 75% on the dot on the pk. So we have a guy who will fight, skate, and win face offs. Those face off wins will be huge. Hits and penalty minutes, he will play the big bad bruin role. That 25th is gonna land us something good cuz the draft is loaded. I don't see korps staying long. Bob will build his value and a beyond solid back up and we will trade him to make room for bussi. This season coming bussi has to clear waivers to go back and forth so when he comes up he stays up. Ullmark will be fine, he grew up playing with forsberg in Sweden, at least he's got friends over there and his numbers will dip behind a different defensive structure
You don’t see the upside because there’s no upside
Markstrom had two left. Linus has one. If Linus don't sign?
I find the best way to value each season’s worth of trades is to simply look at the first to go from each position. Markstrom set the market, everybody else will fall in line. I think yall got a solid return. Obv we’re all tribal and want the moon, but ullmark isn’t gme, so no moon for him. I do wonder about Saros. Now the market is doubly set, and I’m guessing Nashville had much higher expectations. The buyers in that situation may have saved themselves a lot of expense by waiting it out.
Saros is a goddam unicorn. He's the only goldtender who hasn't had a single negative goals saved above expected season during the time he's been in the league.
When you're talking about a species whose behavior is controlled 80% by voodoo, that little feature has a lot of value.
Pretty sure they said they don’t want to move Juuse
Pinto was never available for trade, rest assured.
Which one of you Jabronis was running the twitter account talking about Pinto and the 7th overall pick HAHAHA
Chill😂
Yup. Yup. YUP!!!
Not super pleased with this on its face- a glorified 2nd round pick, aNOTHER bottom-6 forward, and a struggling, overpaid goalie. Unless goalie Bob has ASSURED Sweeney he can rebuild Korpisalo 6M Dollar Man style, I don’t see the upside here.
And what happens when Bussi gets put on waivers? Hes not going to clear- so bye-bye to him I guess…?
Sens fan here.
This is probably the best breakdown of this trade from the Boston perspective that I've seen. There is an emotion but the points you make are rational and fact-based.
Just a few few things, about the Sens' team D vs goaltending in '23-24, about the impact of goaltending on teams in he er. And about Mark Kastelic. Hopefully this doesn't ramble too much but usually that's kinda what I do…
1. About the Sens (Team D vs Goaltending)
Obviously they need to do something before anyone's gonna believe it outright, but I say don't sleep on this group of skaters defensively. Historically, the Sens have been brutal in their own zone and have definitely made their goalies look worse than they are. But that's not what the numbers say about last season. Compared to '22-23, in this season their (RAPM-adjusted, see E-H's Goals± Components Analysis) shot volume against improved by 9 or 10 spots to 10th overall in the league. Their shot quality against improved by six spots.
Yet their goals against got worse by 11 goals.
In '22-23 their goaltending was mid/bad (19th based on GSvAx relative to their opponents) and dropped to worst in the league by a country mile this season.
Clearly the issue was goaltending. Team D has plenty of room for growth, for sure. But based on their stats this year, swapping Korpi for Ullmark would've represented a 40 goal swing in their overall goals differential. Thats pretty wow.
If you break up teams' goal differentials into the components attributable to skaters versus the part attributable to goaltending, and then separate out or equate all teams on the goalie component, the senators would've made the playoffs this season. (based on goals differential).
The Sens' young core is still improving, coaching will be much better, Timmy was playing through a wrist injury last season, Chabby was tormented by repeated extended IR rides (though I guess that's kind of par the course) and if Stevie can make a couple more shrewd trades like this one, we could be watching a wildly different team next year.
Or not, ofc.😂 They need to actually do it and as you guys mentioned, they have a history of letting us down. But I believe. (my mental health depends on it).
2. The Value of Goaltending
Your comment about how goalies are undervalued was sooo truth.
When I was doing that breakdown based on evolving hockey goals± components analysis, I serendipitously came across a crazy factoid. In that analysis they break teams' goals differential into four components. Shot volume, shot quality, shooting (derived from GSAx) and goaltending (GSvAx). Each is a goal value and the four components added together takes you back to your overall goals differential as per the box score (with minor adjustments to account for your opponents etc). It's a fun thing to play with.
As mentioned, I wanted to compare the sens to other teams based on goaltending vs everything else (i.e. what the skaters do). So ni added up the first three components to get one value for skaters. I wish I could share the chart I made. Looking at goaltending vs skaters what you see is that the impact on teams' overall goals± (goals diff) of their goaltending (on average) is significantly greater than the impact of everything the skaters do combined. Mind blowing.
Yet there's a significant segment of Sens Nation that's going to complain bitterly if they sign Ullmark for > $6M with term (which, if they sign him, they're going to have to go way beyond).
3. Mark Kastelic
Kasty needs a chance, somewhere he will be appreciated. I think he fits the Boston identity perfectly. He hasn't produced much, but what are you expecting from a guy who gets 470+ minutes in season? Over his rookie and sophomore seasons, he has been the Sens' second best forward defensively (to Pinto, interestingly also a rookie/sophomore) in the time he's been given. This is adjusted for QoT & QoC), so it's not because he was playing soft competition. He is the team leader in hit rate (/60). Yes, on a team with Brady Tkachuk. He's physically intimidating, will back down from nobody (in my opinion, he beat that punk from Montreal in their one fight this season) and stands up for his teammates. He's also outstanding at face-offs.
Partly because of the extended losing, Ottawa fans have been very critical of our own players lately. There's been a lot of bitching about him because he doesn't produce a lot. This is the same fanbase that complains that we don't have enough size, toughness and intimidation in the lineup. But they appear to want to replace them Kasty with J-G Pageau 😂.
They're hockey fans. They aren't supposed to be rational.
He also looks kinda like Jesus as an MMA fighter.
Really hoping things go well for him in Boston and that the coaches and fans love him.
Yep. It rambled. It sure rambled.
ian readin allat😭🙏🏽 bro think he a guest on the pod😭😭
@@therealjdizzy good for you, tks for letting us know
@@mrpeppery u can’t say that to me when u jus wrote a novel in an empty netters comment section😭🙏🏽
We keep him, we sign lindholm, debrusk walks away, our goal tending is fantastic but we score less goals. Thank god you guys aren't gm's
Yeah, we are not gonna talk about the man winning almost 65% of his face offs last year and being a lifetime 56-57% in the nhl.
face offs don’t really make that much of a difference in deciding the winner+ even if he was career 99% it’s NOT the same as a vezina winner😭
@therealjdizzy that's why they have beecher take five offs on the power play, then he's right off to the bench after he wins it. When your down by one on the pp , a face off win is huge.
@@christopherlydon-sr1gu i’m not saying face offs don’t matter at all. obv if u dominate the circles ur prob going to win. i’m just saying a 4th liner who’s biggest upside is face offs is not worth a vezina winner but as a cats fan and avid bruins hater i’m very glad they made this trade
@therealjdizzy korpisalo had great numbers with a good team. Goalie Bob moves him I'm sure essensa sees something to work with. Ullmark was a dud when we got him.
@@christopherlydon-sr1gu we? u are NOT on the team and def NOT in management😭🙏🏽
Marky is 31.25% retained so hes a little over 4mill each yr the next 2 yrs..Plus Ullmark had some teams on no trade and Ullmark may have been on Jerseys
They sent Ullmark to the wall 😢
Its almost like they just got the 1st for Ullmark and Kastelic for taking Korposolo..First glace it seems like you got a backup to replace Ullmark but that was definitely a solid to the sens..They needed to move him to makr this work..instead of Kastellic it shouldve been Pinto, Norris might be a stretch but a player like that
Obviously you would never say never without looking at the offer. But there's no way Staios would've included Pintoin that deal instead of Kastelic. Pinto is a special young player. In his rookie and sophomore season he's been a master defensively. He's averaged 20 goals per 82 games, despite missing effectively and entire season prior to his rookie season, and then missing training camp and half the season prior to his sophomore season. He didn't even miss a step when he stepped onto the ice in game 42 this year.
The thing about Pinto is that he only made hockey his number one sport at the age of 16 (ie less than 2 years from his draft year). His growth projectory has been astronomical and there's no reason to assume that won't continue.
any talk of Pinto or Norris is absolutely insane. It's like Sens fans saying the trade should've also included McAvoy.