I think the short cut to understanding markets and politics is to study history Is excessive euphoria in a given sector combined with frankly stupid investing has happened before and never ends well were burning off the trash
'Who would have thought that renting scooters to drunk people for a dollar who would then throw them in a canal on their way home would be a money losing business' Gold 😅
Maybe the drunk guy riding home on the scooter? “Hey, this is a great idea, and if I toss the scooter the demand for new scooters will skyrocket! I’m tossin’ and investing in scooter manufacturing, rental, and canal cleaning right now!”
It's about time those bubbles started bursting. The worst part about it is that these startups would often drive out of business legit profitable companies by dumping using VC money. Then VC money dries up and startup goes under and everyone loses except very few who would make good money out of this racket.
Wait, aren't startups supposed to work like this ? First lead competitor to banckrupcy by dropping prices with VC money. Then raise prices, higher than they were. Without really changing anything.
I am an uncharismatic start-up founder and I'm seeing the radical shift of VCs in their approach. Just 12 months ago giving a pitch was more like a comedy show audition, today VCs really listen to you and they really look more at the numbers rather than your face. Thanks to that my start-up recently got funded.
And even if you've proven that your bad idea was overblown hype, you can still be a billionaire and get funding for your next nonsense grift like the Wework guy.
Ukrainians west of the River, pensions paid for by me... the migrants with no id, literally given housing and cash cards and phones... again, paid for by me
You kidding? VCs never even listen to the pitch. If times are good and money is cheap they'll invest in anything for fear of missing out. If storm clouds are gathering they won't even think it's worth their time to check out business plans and they'll just sit on their cash.
I bet most of those start ups are from non-technical MBA founders. They tend to start with, "where's the money" instead of, "what's the problem", and that produces very different mentalities and outcomes.
Patrick is right on here. The biggest problem with VC is that it stopped being about making a profitable business and started becoming a way to get a big payout from an IPO.
Or a SPAC. For an IPO, the start-up has to make disclosures. As WeWork found out, sometimes the market sees through the hype - WeW isn't tech but an existing real estate biz strategy that merely uses existing technology.
And those companies have no idea how to be public companies. The amount of processes you have to put into place to be properly audited is WAY more than what most companies would be willing to put in to go public. Going IPO is extremely costly. VCs thinking it’s easy to go IPO are insane.
@@umiluv When public you're also legally required to appease shareholders. They want dividends ASAP, and if you're not ready to expand that quickly it's going to be a problem.
As someone who works in tech - I am SO GLAD startups are dying. The people who start these will present themselves as a "great opportunity" for devs to get in "at the ground floor" and then rely on those employees working abusive hours while they pump money into "appearing" successful. Then, when the company tanks, they make out with millions and the developers and other team members lose everything. I've avoided startups like the plague but constantly get recruiter emails and LinkedIn messages, and just because I'm lucky enough that I haven't needed to settle doesn't mean others are. These things are (for the most part) predatory shams and venture firms really need to get technical people on their staff who can look at a project and see if it makes sense from both a technical and profitable direction. Companies being allowed to run at a deficit due to venture capital should be an illegal practice. Even if you support a purely "free market" (I don't, obviously) you should agree - it undermines competition and lets the people with the most money put their fingers on the scale.
I puzzled by your comment. How is it that the startup Principal walks away with millions in VC money while the developers who joined “lose everything “? I would have thought that the developers lose their job, but the principal loses his/her fortune. What am I missing?
@@bigbubba4314the founders and ceos always get golden parachutes, never held accountable, I don’t know how exactly it works in order to explain it, but it’s an observable fact
@@Tudorgeable your inability to explain an “absolute fact” like this is troubling. Kind of makes it look like it’s all in your head. Do you know how many start-up businesses go out of business within 5 years? Those “founders” usually lose their entire investment. Often their mortgaged home. Do a quick read on the odds of business success. See, Robert likes to focus on the successful businesses like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft; but how many of their products did you buy because someone, or the government forced you to? And if the founders can create a product or service the people voluntarily enter with their hard earned money, why should the government just take it?
@@bigbubba4314 It would be great if VC's and founders did indeed loose their money, but more often than not they actually make bank. This is because founders and early stage VCs can sell (some of) their shares earlier (sometimes even before IPO) while the company is still has a hyped up crazy valuation. So someone who holds 10% of the stock of an (on paper) "billion dollar" startup can get many millions by selling a tiny part of that at the right time, while most developers /employees will have options or RSUs that won't ve exercisable/won't mature until way later, by which time the company valuation might already have hit rock bottom.
@@bigbubba4314 They take what remains of the funding - the company goes under but, in general, they are taken care of. Because they are the one who decides how the money is used and budgeted, and they always seem to bail themselves out first. Sure, their reputation might be ruined - but their financials come out fine. That or they sell the company to another firm and take the sale profit themselves. Most principals don't have a fortune to begin with - that's why they need the investment. The investors are the ones that lose, but most times it seems they are too big to care. (Until now, that is)
Can't understand how Olive AI went bankrupt. It has AI in its name and as we all know AI is the future. Next you're going to tell me it's just hype and a bubble waiting to pop.
I have a theory: Oldskool startups were started and run by engineers, who had a vision and conviction to make their vision reality. The products became reality, because the engineers willed them into existence because failure was not an option. Newskool startups are run by business "visionaries" who have no clue about the tech, but they hope that they can use money to buy the required engineering. The hired engineers have no conviction to make the vision become reality, as they are just hired guys who have no real stake in the startup. "Eh, we tried."
I recently worked for a SaaS company that had no developers, only salesmen. All development was done by an external company at huge cost and insane lead times for slight tweaks to the software. The "Technical Director" moved from the sales team, he had absolutely no clue about how the product worked. Once I figured out how they operated, I soon left.
it's always the businessmen who ruin shit. there's always a few good ones, like patrick, but i feel like most business people are just unnecessary, and are there because they successfully sold their kind to people, and now they work to keep themselves employed in the sector they created.
I think a colollary to this is that business "visionaries" as you called them don't even know what is realistic for a product to do. Even the best and most motivated engineers won't be able to design a bicycle you can ride to the moon.
My company got acquired by Olive and I immediately knew they were headed to bankruptcy as there was not a single person who could explain to me wtf the company's focus was or what we even sold to customers
The thing that makes me laugh the most is that any company who has an app or does online orders tries to call itself “tech.” I use the old-school definition for tech, that is you make money licensing or selling your technology to other companies. Having an app to make reservations or a website to take orders, DOES NOT make you tech!
@@Adrian-op5nitraditional business models using modern infrastructure. Tech is and always has been a part of business, but using tech is not the same thing as developing tech
@@Adrian-op5ni they are tools not unlike telephones or printed catalogs used to be. They are "expenses" and not "revenue producers." If you sell food, shirts, or taxi rides, it's the FOOD, SHIRTS, and RIDES that provide revenue. Any cost to build and maintain that app LOWERS your margin on every product or service sold.
I have a new idea for a startup. You hire on as a contractor for an assload of money, do no work, submit grandiose weekly reports to report all the great things that you didn't actually do, and you lay so low that the regular employees don't know you even work there. Name it WeLurk.
I have been bootstrapping an edtech company for the past 8 years. In the world of “unicorns,” it’s very hard to stay as caravans of “camels.” Most investors would rather lose all of their investment if there is a 0.1% chance that they can hit a “home run” with unicorns. Entrepreneurs in VC markets are like politicians. Don’t expect to be elected if you never lie. Don’t expect to get any investment if you never lie.
You seem to be on a downward trajectory. Little lie here turns into a larger lie there. Here and there turns into continuous corruption until caught and turfed. An important rule of investing is knowing when to bail. Not to stay married to a losing proposition.
This isn't surprising really as the modern 'startup' was really just fuelled by monopoly money resulting from massive financial bubbles being inflated to monstrous proportions by various kinds of money printing. I doubt most app makers could survive in normal times. It is probably good to remember that the entire smartphone industry and social media industry was born in the era of non-stop financial bubbles.
People in tech have been getting rich from selling data to advertisers. A lot of tech companies don't sell products that people actually need. Bout time that bubble pooped 🤣
It has a bit in common with the "south sea bubble". All driven by marketing hype. Such large losses do redistribute wealth away from the oligarchy at least.
There is a good book called When Money Dies, about the Weimer Republic inflation. The most interesting part was reading about all the useless business models that arose and then died. Not the same as the current situation but many interesting parallels.
@@angelobalbi The topic of the discussion is how bad business models thrive, until economic conditions change. Not about economic depression or collapse.
I worked at a startup that sold wind turbines to individual home owners years ago. They promised no power bills, home-generated power, etc... and they sold these cheap "re-manufactured" turbines that would blow up or catch on fire after a few hours of operation. I was fired. A few months later I got the notification from a US Bankruptcy Court that they'd filed bankruptcy.
I'm one of the people who got laid off from a startup... It's easy to fall for their dreams and culture when they're well funded, but the second the money starts running out is the second things go down the toilet
Me: Working in an incredible company, got bought by BlackRock, laid of seniors staff, hired lots of juniors, boosted revenue by making quantity over quality --- lost nearly all clients, sold the company to Atos, company turn to utter sh*t...
@@Kabodanki Why did the owners of your company sell it? Financial problems on the horizon? Current employees without the wherewithal to take it further? Your illiteracy makes one wonder about your role in the company and the company's commitment to meritocracy. The ultimate decline to sh*t, of course, is your, obviously biased, assessment.
@@Kabodanki Get used to it, I started coding in 90 and lost count how many companies i worked for that got sold, moved, reorganized, went bankrupt, etc...I still prefer startups as the people are human with emotion....IT at a major corporation is boring..no risk to anyone other than our jobs..i like when the boss can also go broke. :)
I worked for a start-up once....and will never do it again. 20 hour work days from months on end, little to no communication or direction between departments, little internal cooperation, lousy salary, no benefits, poor planning (company had a habit of just leaving customers hanging), execs who spent more time trying to impress each other with their lastest LinkedIn observations than fixing the company's internal problems. What a load of BS. Never again. You want my skills and talent? Put the cash on the table. No more pro bono or "once we achieve milestone blah-blah-blah" bs.
That’s nightmarish hell man. Were the founders recent college dropouts? I work for a startup now and the founders are second timers and the leadership team as a whole is older. Not a perfect solution in all cases, but the more experienced and realistic leadership team certainly helps make my work much better.
The salary is a problem I overcame by going in cheap with promise of real $$$ at 3 months...but the rest of the chaos i prefered over corporate boredem...psychopathic startups bosses are INSANE..even violent! But I have no wife and kids to support so its a wild party to me. I also would get full (or almost) of decisions, the code was more personal...the platforms, server choices, protocols, etc..i was invovled from day one.
@@jackmcmanis6895 There were a handful of what I would consider "youngsters", but by and large, management was well-experienced and "seasoned"....meaning to say in their 40s and above. Actually, the guy I replaced was retiring....for the second time.
I’m very excited about this. As a resident of San Francisco I’m hoping that this will free up a ton of housing and make it possible for those of us who don’t work in tech to be able to buy a house.
Yeah even if a lot of companies leave thats not going to do anything for you guys and when the big companies leave the small companies, restaurants, mom and pop shops, etc also close down so praying on the down fall of tech is ignorant. Those workers are the reason majority of you are employed. Who do you think you're mostly serving in those cities, the broke people? Lmfao, don't make me laugh.
I don’t know. As a fellow (but admittedly recent) SF resident, I think freeing up housing is only part of the problem. And in fact, when it happens abruptly it’s a big part of the doom spiral. Rent is sticky and population density is important for a city to function. When people leave en mass due to these collapses, local businesses suffer too
Credit suisse were more than capable of destroying their balance sheet without even putting a tie in the VC market. They may have had clients who were in the market but that’s about it.
Krupt ai. Wait, pizza... Pizzai? Let me ask ai... StartupFold AI FlopBot TechCrunch Bankruptcy Bites Bytes and Bites Crust 'n Crunch Cruncher Co They can't call be winners.
The more I learn about how venture capital functions, the more I realize how much of big business effectively runs on vibes, and how much a company's valuation (particularly in places like tech and finance) is often based on unrealistically cheery guesswork rather than what any actual numbers show.
Realizing that it’s about feelings and collective mood is how I beat the market. Terrible mood surrounding a stock? I begin looking at the numbers and consider shifting a portion of my money out of mutual funds and into the thing that everyone knows will drop in value. When everyone knows it, there aren’t any sellers left.
Usually I have to abandon the investment idea, of course, because people are correct about fundamentals being poor. But this really is the way to find occasional good buys
"Valuations" are based on the sale price of the last round of financing rather than something akin to an appraisal. 100% of them will overstate the value of the company because of a quirk in the convention.
Valuations of public companies on the stock market are also total speculation and they are usually way overvalued. The analysts have an incentive for them to overvalue their stocks. It’s a very silly industry. It’s why I never invested in the stock market even though I work in finance because it’s fake AF and just legalized gambling.
it exists already within the b2b with many other brands, the difference was that they tried to do a direct 2 consumer, and usually your dentist scans your teeth and designs the movements needed to achieve your goal, with knowledge of your bone and teeth structure. It usually means a year or more, of weekly teeth liners, with a visit to the dentist every month or so to review progression. At the moment you really need a skilled professional and specific tooling to service the business, this is likely the reason for the flop.
My theory is that we've, in the developed nations, moved from creating actual tangible physical products , to services. And thr problem with services is that, its easy to miscalculate th scale of your customer base. With physical products you can write down on paper a list of companies that would need your product. You can think of a niche service that hiosters might use and totally miscalculate your customer base.
1. Previously, the Americans gave the Chinese a detailed description of all production processes and the final product. 2 Then the Americans forgot how to make drawings and what production was and therefore began to draw on paper what they wanted, and the Chinese produced it. 3. Now in the USA they don’t know how to draw and therefore they dictate what they want into a dictaphone and the Chinese produce it. 4. The next stage has already begun: Artificial intelligence shows Americans pictures of everything they might want for themselves, and Americans put crosses on the pictures and send them to factories in China, where the Chinese create the final product.
@@maxbig9021"America forgot how to make drawings". Succinctly put. AI is making things so much worse. People are being bamboozled into not having an imagination, just what the computer dreams of. There's no joy in skill to be felt.
How does a business like peloton fit into this theory? They sell tangible hardware and everyone vastly overestimated the customer base. Probably related to well off people being brainwashed into thinking that less well off people waste money. No, poor people who value exercise will absolutely get it for free
Laid off tech workers easily finding replacement jobs is absolutely untrue. If you're a software developer, or in software QA, the job market is an absolute disaster right now. Most new listings rocket to well more than 100 applications in just a few hours.
Serious Question: are you just looking at jobs at top tech firms? For years it has been very hard to find talented engineers to work for ~$80-110k because even entry level jobs at FAANG, Samsung, etc. pay over $150k and come with the prestige. Would these workers be willing to work for $100k to find a job at a smaller firm that actually needs help and has an interesting problem to solve?
@@davidyalacki2599 last year we hired an engineer that had 10 years at GM. he was only making 100k after 10 years as a mechanical engineer. this is in buffalo so an inexpensive town but still seems low. year before we hired a recent graduate mechanical engineer . guy had about a year experience . 70k to start. that was above the going rate at the time. . he's up to 100k now as he's a good hands on guy.
I worked in a very old nuclear company and then in a startup nuclear company. The old company did things 20 times faster than the startup. Just about all related startups would have progressed much faster if they first started with older designs, tweaked them, built something, learned what they could from that and iterated. (OODA loop) It constantly reminded me of Elon Musk focusing on basic first principals and Warren Buffet only investing in businesses that he understood.
The older led competent people have an understanding of what works completely and what does not...vs a young upstart which has never had experience in a tried and true marketplace that has worked out or not.
I’m so glad those scooters went away. I live in a small city and even here they were laying in the middle of the sidewalk all over the place. Can’t imagine what it was like in a city of millions.
Where I live people handle them quite well, it's rare to see one parked wrongly and people ride them like bicycles. I guess what matters is the people.
Why would you want free beer on tap available to your employees? What companies or industries are there that would benefit from having employees constantly hammered?
I don't know, I had one job where I'd have a red wine with most lunches (from home, not from the company). It REALLY helped me get through the rest of the day.
It wasn’t for the benefit of their employees it was a marketing ploy to attract customers to relocate into their serviced offices. It was part of the urban cool image they tried to project and failed. It was a case of the Emperor’s New Clothes
It's pretty much like those play areas at Google and other such companies. They are there to attract employees and for prestige, but if you actually use it then you're gone pretty quick.
@Onlinerando They are being shut down because nobody wants to buy them. They just burn money in hopes of being sold. Most of them don't even make any product anybody wants.
@Onlinerando Shutting down startups is the new "selling those startups before someone finds out they are not profitable", it's the core design of the modern business model where "let's hire 20 to 50 modern slaves in the first year and see what will happen" is the main mantra
If your company is presenting their addressable market as the entire global population, telling you they have no competitors because of how unique their "idea" is and the metrics they use to update you on their "success" keep changing to only show positive movements be sure to keep your CV up to date.
@@jasperhorace7147they are 100%. The plan for most of these is to sell them before they go under for profit. The narcissistic pathological liar at WeWork that sold investors plates of shit and somehow the investors wanted steaming, runny, corn-filled seconds, absconded with some of the money without penalty and sold stakes in it became a billionaire. As in, he made up shit, was knowingly disingenuous, lied, and made himself filthy rich as a result. He’s most of these start ups poster child.
The videogame industry rely on wealthy idiots to pay for the game's production which is then a profit scheme. You don't get back more value because you are pushing the donkey forward with a bullet train.
@@jasperhorace7147 They are. It's all about tricking investors into giving you money. After that, you just maintain a certain level of "growth" by selling your product/service for unsustainable prices. Finally, once the bottom false out, you give yourself a nice bonus and let the fictional construct of the company deal with the bankruptcy.
That's a bummer. I had a great idea for a startup that combines my love for Finance, Bitcoin, rap, and rapping. I guess I'll just have to wait it out until the market is more favorable.
Great suggestions, you've given me the confidence to pursue my dreams 😜. As I'm Dutch, I'd say Crockchain will be the name of my future empire. I'm confident it will be an outstanding success.
Fantastic video, Patrick, and I could not agree more. These business models were never sustainable, and now that it costs so much money to borrow money, unsustainable business models simply cannot survive. If these companies can't survive the "winter," they should not be propped up until they see another "summer."
Maybe I am a simpleton but most of these start ups are simply poorly run businesses and their valuation are purely artificial. WeWork branded itself as a tech company, whilst in reality it was a real estate business... Any amateur analyst can easily spot this.... Going public means big payday for some and the public investor picks up the liability
Yes, yes, yes! I am no financial expert but I have been asking myself long enough how all these new questionable business models could make money and the answer is that they weren’t. I am sad seeing this happening in tech because I am a software engineer but I am happy it is happening. I have been scared long enough to end up in one of these companies.
Curious what the leaders of these firms made during their tenure and what they walked away with. I have a feeling that all is not doom and gloom from that perspective.
In my opinion we are in diminishing returns territory for many startups. Here in Italy (and everywhere else) you have a ton of banking apps/contraptions that do the same thing with no real value driver and companies that find solutions to problems nobody had before. Nothing wrong with that, cleanups occur. Wish all the best to the people that need to change job! :)
In Spain we now have a plethora of digital payment apps. In fact there are so many that people are confusing the brand names with potato crisp companies, transport companies and low-cost airlines to mention a few. Absolute & utter chaos which is in fact motivating a strong return to cash!
Had a brief chat with a banker who works in business financing the other day--the accounts he manages, he told me, range from $30-million to $300-million. Since his dealings are mostly with already established businesses--and banks operate financing different than VCFs--I asked if he though the VC funds might be drying up. His reply was that they got deep pockets. Didn't make sense, I told him, considering Theranos, WeWork, FTX, etc. . . .OR, to me it seems that these phenomena about putting billion$ kinda hackneyed ideas are coming to seem more and more like grift, and/or a sophisticated method of money laundering. A billion$ is a lot of money; making $1000/day, one would have to work roughly 3000 years to make just $1-billion. Yet they're giving these 'charismatic' individuals this kind of money, just based off a few random criteria.
It's like a tube with an air hockey table that was dreamed up 100 years ago and too complicated and expensive to do. How Branson and others fell for the dream is wild.
Tesla is overvalued but at least is a functional company with a real product, space X gets that sweet us government money, starlink people appear to like it amd I think is also profitable although they are poluting space the other companies he ows should probably die, elon itself looks like a mad men he should just cut his losses snd ditch twitter but he probably doesn’t want Tesla stock to dip
To think I can't get a 100k for an app that is already being used, but these companies can get money for products that have no demand nor have made money. Wonderful "economy"
I always feel bad when I hear or see a business dying, workers lossing their job and owners their project, but tech startups and specially Tech bros are SO ANNOYING That I'm conflicted on how to feel regarding this.
3:23 The food packaging industry has INSANE margins, and is quite profitable, especially if you have novel concepts. That's probably why Zume wanted to pivot in that direction. Unfortunately the barrier to entry is also INSANE, which is probably why they couldn't raise the cash to do it.
@@Reggaeshark. I have a friend who owns part of a food packaging co. He says machinery costs, dev costs, and sales cycle are the big ones. If you've got the pockets to handle that, it's a very lucrative biz.
To be sure WeWork was by the international offices available, was very good, to us, consumers of beer I recall spending a whole "working day there getting drunk, going to nap, play games, get drunk again, then go home" happiest membership package ever.
This is the story the life that cycles over and over everywhere: Every government in the world even in the most hostile areas: "We need more entrepreneurs for the good of our country!" One entrentrepreneur that makes it big: "I made it big everyone but we still need more entrepreneurs everyone!" Then the circle jerk off continues and the financials that drive it become exponentially toxic and public never understands this terrible cycle. I believe people just want to get lucky and stay rich on the other people's back while pretending to be genuinely good. Until money gets attached to some sort of correlation of tangible effort of work then things will continue to become even more unfair. All the while the public will continue to become more stupid to understand why it keeps happening.
If money was actually tied to labour then capitalism would fall over. Businesses operate on the model of paying someone less than their work is worth so they can turn a profit. Im not saying the downfall of capitalism would be a bad thing, mind, but these kinds of ridiculous bubbles and crashes are a result of the system working as intended.
@@JRCP144 Honestly capitalism doesn't need to fall to still have a good functioning society but the public has been led to believe that extremes are only good for humanity. For example, why the hell are lottos designed to pour literally 99% to winners when it's already subjective on how the pot is decided. Same thing with the salary system with positions in job careers where executives for some reason see a massive jump of compensation as opposed to non-executive positions? The current governments in power just allowed it to happen and we're seeing the results of it.
Maybe it's culture, where the people with the money to invest are swayed into investing in outlandish ventures because societies have made giving into hype the norm. There needs to be more small, mid size businesses with sound business plans and physical storefronts/offices instead of the stripped down tech thing where employees are just human capital that can be laid off if it makes shareholders happy.
I like this format of explanation. No graphics, no sensationalism, no bs stock image , no exaggeration in the language. Please keep doing what you're doing. It feels so much better than the junk out there.
Patrick, we need an analysis of the ultimate source of these wasted billions and how the decision making occurs. There must be something else going on than poor choices.
Exactly! That's why I don't comment on these videos even if I can point out a problem or mock these companies, people in the comments making me laugh, if you're so clever and have so much to say, where is your billion dollar successful company??? Huh? Can't even run your family right and you're taking
The problem is it is built around hype, not iteration. Say you are an executive at Corporation Y, and are given this choice between two pitches: 1) "My new wind turbine produces 10% more electricity, requires only 75% of the current maintenance that other models require, and can still operate in winds 10 kmph slower than the completion." 2) "This is the Gearocity power box. With a vibranium reactor inside, it can produce the output of an entire coal plant while producing no emissions and being the size of a shoebox. It is being controlled by an AI residing in the Ethereum blockchain. The vibranium is so reactive we cannot let you look inside, though. Just trust us that it does what we say, and that is not a case for a car battery with some wires stuck to it." If Corporation Y is a venture capital firm, you pick option 1. If Corporation Y is an electric company, you pick option 2.
It's a great time to be an American economics youtuber. Between the housing crisis, rising homelessness, growing sense of discontent (both politically and economically), and wealth inequality, there's so much content. It's going to get even crazier when the billionaires cash out and take everything with them to a different country. Okay, maybe not that last one, because what other country would put up with them? Also, the CIA would hunt them, unless bribed.
The reason they are billionaires is because US tech companies have been plundering the rest of the world destroying businesses with their blitz scale and extra jurisdictional tax advantages. Don’t assume that money should even be American.
Insane how many companies are being stuffed with investor money even though it's obvious to everyone that they have no way of working or making money ever.
Watched a startup from the sidelines and it made me sick. Thing lost money for years but had gone public and so was propped up by investor money. Damn zombie companies, sucking up money that could've been spent on something much better. Hope they all go out of business and the VC's too! There's a sucker born every minute and some of them grow up to be VC's.
This makes me a bit more pessimistic but also more cautious on starting my own startup. I'm not an expert in business or economics but I do appreciate your take on things and how to be critical and careful.
It would be so good for our society for so many to literally lose everything. The obscene level of consumerism and the egos that go with it needs a massive overhaul. Start from nothing, learn what's really important.
I’m going to need to start hearing some good news, Patrick. 😅❤The hilarious comic relief bits sure do help 😉The robots delivering pizza choice was particularly prime 😂
The moment a similar program came to my town, i knew it was a failed business model. Scooters were being distributed in laughably bad locations, and then abandoned in the dirt everywhere until people just stopped trying them at all. There was never a real market for this here; the students and bar-hoppers that these were marketed to just walk if they live close enough, and take the bus or Uber if they don't.
@@Shadowcam00 had friends in coastal towns say that they had to regulate drop off locations because, surprise, large untethered metal scooters can be dangerous in hurricane conditions. They also were designed to not run through a campus but would also just stop in dangerous parts of town
@@Shadowcam00 I would think the users credit card was charged enough to cover the cost of a scooter + proift...returned when the scooter was returned. In bulk how much could they be to produce..$150-200 maybe?
Bird scooters were in Denton, Texas, a college town of 50,000. I couldn't ride my bike on the bike paths there were so many scooters littering the paths.
Regarding the Zume pizza concept. If I understand it, they would make the pizza en route and you'd get it fresh. Its a great idea. In fact, it was a great idea in 1990 when Turbo Taco did exactly the same thing in Lawrence Kansas. If I had to guess, Turbo Taco wasn't the first to try the approach. While I loved it as a customer, I never understood how they expected to make money if they could only fill 3-4 orders an hour.
The failure is in the over personalisation - being summoned by 1 guy who ordered is 1 drive per order. It's a less functional version of the food trucks with a regular route along residential streets, because those get several regulars/passerby per drive and get regular repeat customers. *Jingle noise* = hot food outside is a much more effective advertising prompt than a phone notification that you'll probably ignore for food that you still have to wait for, as well.
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Patrick, you rule man. Perfect mix of serious material and entertaining, sarcastic comments. You are a TEDx Talks material. I have already suggested you once on their page. I need to do it again. Your way of presenting reminds me a bit of sir Ken Robinson whose TEDx Talk on Education (!?!) was one of the most viewed videos of all TEDx talks. Brilliant.
I think the main problem with a lot the more recent startup failures is that you realistically have to become a near monopoly to have any chance of being profitable, but since the barrier of entry for something like Uber or renting scooters is so low as soon as you have market share and raise prices new competitors will come in and this cycle will never end, hence no realistic way of becoming profitable even in the long run.
The problem more widely is that blitzscaled startups can’t turn profitable because their unit economics is flawed right from the start. They would need to heavily increase prices and cut down costs to have a chance at profit, which in majority of the cases is too steep of a change to sustain through.
@@RobVice Yeah, that's basically what I'm getting at as well. You have to be a monopoly and people are dependent on your product or service and then you have to raise prices as far as you need to, but that's the moment a new competitor has the chance to come in.
I disagree. Those out of tech jobs can’t find another tech company that’s hiring. They all have hiring freezes while laying off thousands. TH-cam is filled with unemployed tech workers who are unable to find jobs. Likewise my GF lost her job from Citibank and none of the other banks are hiring so she is out of a career.
Head to brilliant.org/patrick/ to start your free 30-day trial. The first 200 of you will get 20% off Brilliant's annual premium subscription.
NEEDS MORE SNEER
Will do.
Sure, correction in two months
none of your sponsors though eh? (are startups that are shutting down)
I think the short cut to understanding markets and politics is to study history Is excessive euphoria in a given sector combined with frankly stupid investing has happened before and never ends well were burning off the trash
'Who would have thought that renting scooters to drunk people for a dollar who would then throw them in a canal on their way home would be a money losing business'
Gold 😅
For real!!
I been laughing for ten minutes now.
I had to rewind twice and stop the 3rd to see of it was "my" canal! Bird scooters and bikes were a real mess in Pacific Beach CA.
An investment for Bird brains?
Maybe the drunk guy riding home on the scooter? “Hey, this is a great idea, and if I toss the scooter the demand for new scooters will skyrocket! I’m tossin’ and investing in scooter manufacturing, rental, and canal cleaning right now!”
Masayoshi Son should be applauded for the important climate work he is doing. He has successfully evaporated billions of dollars of Saudi oil money
He is really good at losing money 💰 😅
Vanguard of fighting inflation by setting cash on fire
I laughed so hard out loud while reading this.
@@asianboywonder2312 🤣🤣
He should be real wary of ever stepping into a Saudi embassy
It's about time those bubbles started bursting. The worst part about it is that these startups would often drive out of business legit profitable companies by dumping using VC money. Then VC money dries up and startup goes under and everyone loses except very few who would make good money out of this racket.
Make money by losing it...Tax Write offs
@@HoneyBadger80886*Make money by starting a VC fund and charging clients fees for pretending to do value added investing
Wait, aren't startups supposed to work like this ? First lead competitor to banckrupcy by dropping prices with VC money. Then raise prices, higher than they were. Without really changing anything.
It's almost like the central tenets of capitalism produce a system which only benefits an infinitesimal fraction of humanity on purpose or something.
Keyword: RACKET
I am an uncharismatic start-up founder and I'm seeing the radical shift of VCs in their approach. Just 12 months ago giving a pitch was more like a comedy show audition, today VCs really listen to you and they really look more at the numbers rather than your face. Thanks to that my start-up recently got funded.
Nice to know your numbers are better than your face /rofl :) Best of luck 🤞
@@mk177 There's nothing wrong with his face 😂.
This gives me hope for better businesses to start up
@@LightofJoshua Absolutely. Exciting times ahead for sure.
Congratulations!
Get rich quick - Start a company, get funding, pay yourself a salary of 20 million dollars, declare corporate bankruptcy.
The ultimate grift!
ّIt's a good gig if you can get it.
😂😂 facts
This is the one true way.
And even if you've proven that your bad idea was overblown hype, you can still be a billionaire and get funding for your next nonsense grift like the Wework guy.
Now that money is no longer free, people actually have to prove their businesses create real life value. I'm not mad about any of this.
Uh... not true.
Points to ukraine.. points to border and nyc... not even close buddy.
Ukrainians west of the River, pensions paid for by me... the migrants with no id, literally given housing and cash cards and phones... again, paid for by me
Cash Jordan can debunk this with just his content this month and its only Jan20 ha
@@dertythegroweryes but this video is more about private capital what you're talking about is government spending
You kidding? VCs never even listen to the pitch. If times are good and money is cheap they'll invest in anything for fear of missing out. If storm clouds are gathering they won't even think it's worth their time to check out business plans and they'll just sit on their cash.
Luckily in Australia we plough our money into overpriced houses and not risky startups.
Nothing else going on down there
As it should be 🤣☠
Overpriced houses in flood Plains and river mouths. You have to credit those smart property investors for taking real risk. 🤣
@thomas316 same in Canada
We have overpriced houses here, too.
I bet most of those start ups are from non-technical MBA founders. They tend to start with, "where's the money" instead of, "what's the problem", and that produces very different mentalities and outcomes.
Perfect comment
MBA = Managed By Adolescents....
Bruh even an MBA knows no realistic route to profitability is a definite scam...but it's nice for these guys to be on top of the pyramid scheme
100% wrong
That isn't even it. There is no money in pizza delivery. These MBAtards don't know wtf they're doing.
Patrick is right on here. The biggest problem with VC is that it stopped being about making a profitable business and started becoming a way to get a big payout from an IPO.
Welcome to a year of scam. FTX, We work ect.
Or a SPAC. For an IPO, the start-up has to make disclosures. As WeWork found out, sometimes the market sees through the hype - WeW isn't tech but an existing real estate biz strategy that merely uses existing technology.
The "zombie companie" - are they the "zombie apocalypse" we've been warned about.
And those companies have no idea how to be public companies. The amount of processes you have to put into place to be properly audited is WAY more than what most companies would be willing to put in to go public. Going IPO is extremely costly. VCs thinking it’s easy to go IPO are insane.
@@umiluv When public you're also legally required to appease shareholders. They want dividends ASAP, and if you're not ready to expand that quickly it's going to be a problem.
As someone who works in tech - I am SO GLAD startups are dying. The people who start these will present themselves as a "great opportunity" for devs to get in "at the ground floor" and then rely on those employees working abusive hours while they pump money into "appearing" successful. Then, when the company tanks, they make out with millions and the developers and other team members lose everything. I've avoided startups like the plague but constantly get recruiter emails and LinkedIn messages, and just because I'm lucky enough that I haven't needed to settle doesn't mean others are. These things are (for the most part) predatory shams and venture firms really need to get technical people on their staff who can look at a project and see if it makes sense from both a technical and profitable direction.
Companies being allowed to run at a deficit due to venture capital should be an illegal practice. Even if you support a purely "free market" (I don't, obviously) you should agree - it undermines competition and lets the people with the most money put their fingers on the scale.
I puzzled by your comment. How is it that the startup Principal walks away with millions in VC money while the developers who joined “lose everything “? I would have thought that the developers lose their job, but the principal loses his/her fortune. What am I missing?
@@bigbubba4314the founders and ceos always get golden parachutes, never held accountable, I don’t know how exactly it works in order to explain it, but it’s an observable fact
@@Tudorgeable your inability to explain an “absolute fact” like this is troubling. Kind of makes it look like it’s all in your head. Do you know how many start-up businesses go out of business within 5 years? Those “founders” usually lose their entire investment. Often their mortgaged home. Do a quick read on the odds of business success. See, Robert likes to focus on the successful businesses like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft; but how many of their products did you buy because someone, or the government forced you to? And if the founders can create a product or service the people voluntarily enter with their hard earned money, why should the government just take it?
@@bigbubba4314 It would be great if VC's and founders did indeed loose their money, but more often than not they actually make bank. This is because founders and early stage VCs can sell (some of) their shares earlier (sometimes even before IPO) while the company is still has a hyped up crazy valuation. So someone who holds 10% of the stock of an (on paper) "billion dollar" startup can get many millions by selling a tiny part of that at the right time, while most developers /employees will have options or RSUs that won't ve exercisable/won't mature until way later, by which time the company valuation might already have hit rock bottom.
@@bigbubba4314 They take what remains of the funding - the company goes under but, in general, they are taken care of. Because they are the one who decides how the money is used and budgeted, and they always seem to bail themselves out first. Sure, their reputation might be ruined - but their financials come out fine.
That or they sell the company to another firm and take the sale profit themselves. Most principals don't have a fortune to begin with - that's why they need the investment. The investors are the ones that lose, but most times it seems they are too big to care. (Until now, that is)
"Matsuyoshi Son - Japan's Cathie Wood" - man this Patrick Boyle is so brutal.
Is that's a flex!
I have no big interest in economics, I'm subscribed 100% because Patrick Boyle is the Da Vinci of dry humor.
And he isn't wrong.
And with a such a dry pan delivery, it made it even funnier 😂
i spit out my drink when i heard that hahaha
Can't understand how Olive AI went bankrupt. It has AI in its name and as we all know AI is the future. Next you're going to tell me it's just hype and a bubble waiting to pop.
Not every AI venture is profitable.
Its mostly hype and bubble and its going to pop. There you go.🥰
People with money need something to gamble on. It won't pop until next hype comes into the picture
AI at least has some potential. It's a tool. It can be used by either authoritarian goverments, content farms or in medicine
AI today is nothing but what some human has fed it!
I have a theory:
Oldskool startups were started and run by engineers, who had a vision and conviction to make their vision reality. The products became reality, because the engineers willed them into existence because failure was not an option.
Newskool startups are run by business "visionaries" who have no clue about the tech, but they hope that they can use money to buy the required engineering. The hired engineers have no conviction to make the vision become reality, as they are just hired guys who have no real stake in the startup. "Eh, we tried."
I recently worked for a SaaS company that had no developers, only salesmen. All development was done by an external company at huge cost and insane lead times for slight tweaks to the software.
The "Technical Director" moved from the sales team, he had absolutely no clue about how the product worked. Once I figured out how they operated, I soon left.
You are describing Blue Origin vs Space X.
Of course there’s always some emotional comment like this, gOoD olD daYz
Forgetting interest rates are now on rise for decades
it's always the businessmen who ruin shit. there's always a few good ones, like patrick, but i feel like most business people are just unnecessary, and are there because they successfully sold their kind to people, and now they work to keep themselves employed in the sector they created.
I think a colollary to this is that business "visionaries" as you called them don't even know what is realistic for a product to do.
Even the best and most motivated engineers won't be able to design a bicycle you can ride to the moon.
I really appreciate how Patrick doesn't have any intros on his videos and just gets directly to the topic
This. A typical youtuber would start with lame jokes and the history of startups according to Wikipedia
Nothing like to the point.
Correct👍🏾
Anyone who lived through the 90's somehow thinks they need to put a guitar riff intro on every fucking video.
I would relish the opportunity to get drunk and wild with Ole Patty Boyle.
My company got acquired by Olive and I immediately knew they were headed to bankruptcy as there was not a single person who could explain to me wtf the company's focus was or what we even sold to customers
The thing that makes me laugh the most is that any company who has an app or does online orders tries to call itself “tech.” I use the old-school definition for tech, that is you make money licensing or selling your technology to other companies. Having an app to make reservations or a website to take orders, DOES NOT make you tech!
Thank you, you're a genius! I'll open a restaurant that serves nothing but apps! Appetizers, of course. Ridiculous risky VC funding here we come!
You sound like a loser tbh.
Apps and online sales aren’t tech….what are they then?
@@Adrian-op5nitraditional business models using modern infrastructure. Tech is and always has been a part of business, but using tech is not the same thing as developing tech
@@Adrian-op5ni they are tools not unlike telephones or printed catalogs used to be. They are "expenses" and not "revenue producers." If you sell food, shirts, or taxi rides, it's the FOOD, SHIRTS, and RIDES that provide revenue. Any cost to build and maintain that app LOWERS your margin on every product or service sold.
I love how Patrick takes any and every opportunity to remind everyone of the absurdity of WeWork. 😂
With a beer tap!
WeWork was good for surrounding businesses, though. They provided a lot of free coffee and danishes to them.
It should have worked. Aside from it not being profitable to resell something you could get on your own, it should have worked.
WeTarded
I have a new idea for a startup. You hire on as a contractor for an assload of money, do no work, submit grandiose weekly reports to report all the great things that you didn't actually do, and you lay so low that the regular employees don't know you even work there. Name it WeLurk.
I have been bootstrapping an edtech company for the past 8 years. In the world of “unicorns,” it’s very hard to stay as caravans of “camels.” Most investors would rather lose all of their investment if there is a 0.1% chance that they can hit a “home run” with unicorns.
Entrepreneurs in VC markets are like politicians. Don’t expect to be elected if you never lie. Don’t expect to get any investment if you never lie.
You seem to be on a downward trajectory. Little lie here turns into a larger lie there. Here and there turns into continuous corruption until caught and turfed.
An important rule of investing is knowing when to bail. Not to stay married to a losing proposition.
Softbank lost 53 billion dollars in 2 years.... let that sink in
“Lost” someone’s profited off this. The real thugs.
Nothing lost. They never owned the money
He should step down
Rookie numbers.
SoftBank should be renamed SmoothBrains.
Im working on a startup dredging canals for scooters then selling them to people who lost all of their money on wework
👏👏👏👏👏🤣
🤣🤣🤣 a match made in VC heaven
I bet your company is worth 800 trillion dollars. Wait. Do you have an app?
😂
This isn't surprising really as the modern 'startup' was really just fuelled by monopoly money resulting from massive financial bubbles being inflated to monstrous proportions by various kinds of money printing. I doubt most app makers could survive in normal times. It is probably good to remember that the entire smartphone industry and social media industry was born in the era of non-stop financial bubbles.
People in tech have been getting rich from selling data to advertisers. A lot of tech companies don't sell products that people actually need. Bout time that bubble pooped 🤣
It has a bit in common with the "south sea bubble". All driven by marketing hype. Such large losses do redistribute wealth away from the oligarchy at least.
There is a good book called When Money Dies, about the Weimer Republic inflation. The most interesting part was reading about all the useless business models that arose and then died. Not the same as the current situation but many interesting parallels.
@@angelobalbi The topic of the discussion is how bad business models thrive, until economic conditions change. Not about economic depression or collapse.
Welcome to capitalism!
This really takes me back to the early 2000's. Such nostalgia.
I worked at a startup that sold wind turbines to individual home owners years ago. They promised no power bills, home-generated power, etc... and they sold these cheap "re-manufactured" turbines that would blow up or catch on fire after a few hours of operation. I was fired. A few months later I got the notification from a US Bankruptcy Court that they'd filed bankruptcy.
Why did you get the bankruptcy notification?
@ you are cute! ❤
@@1MinuteFlipDocyou are cute ❤
@@Cringe_department_15Is this a new bot method?
No u@@1MinuteFlipDoc
I'm one of the people who got laid off from a startup... It's easy to fall for their dreams and culture when they're well funded, but the second the money starts running out is the second things go down the toilet
I hope you realize it's just one of many life lessons, think through what you've learned and apply your knew knowledge to a very successful new you.
Kind of like government. Enjoying the spoils of other people's money without producing anything or earning any revenue!
Me: Working in an incredible company, got bought by BlackRock, laid of seniors staff, hired lots of juniors, boosted revenue by making quantity over quality --- lost nearly all clients, sold the company to Atos, company turn to utter sh*t...
@@Kabodanki Why did the owners of your company sell it? Financial problems on the horizon? Current employees without the wherewithal to take it further? Your illiteracy makes one wonder about your role in the company and the company's commitment to meritocracy. The ultimate decline to sh*t, of course, is your, obviously biased, assessment.
@@Kabodanki Get used to it, I started coding in 90 and lost count how many companies i worked for that got sold, moved, reorganized, went bankrupt, etc...I still prefer startups as the people are human with emotion....IT at a major corporation is boring..no risk to anyone other than our jobs..i like when the boss can also go broke. :)
I worked for a start-up once....and will never do it again. 20 hour work days from months on end, little to no communication or direction between departments, little internal cooperation, lousy salary, no benefits, poor planning (company had a habit of just leaving customers hanging), execs who spent more time trying to impress each other with their lastest LinkedIn observations than fixing the company's internal problems. What a load of BS. Never again. You want my skills and talent? Put the cash on the table. No more pro bono or "once we achieve milestone blah-blah-blah" bs.
That’s nightmarish hell man. Were the founders recent college dropouts? I work for a startup now and the founders are second timers and the leadership team as a whole is older. Not a perfect solution in all cases, but the more experienced and realistic leadership team certainly helps make my work much better.
The salary is a problem I overcame by going in cheap with promise of real $$$ at 3 months...but the rest of the chaos i prefered over corporate boredem...psychopathic startups bosses are INSANE..even violent! But I have no wife and kids to support so its a wild party to me. I also would get full (or almost) of decisions, the code was more personal...the platforms, server choices, protocols, etc..i was invovled from day one.
@@jackmcmanis6895 There were a handful of what I would consider "youngsters", but by and large, management was well-experienced and "seasoned"....meaning to say in their 40s and above. Actually, the guy I replaced was retiring....for the second time.
Weunemployed now
Or WeWantWork
WedidntWork
WeBroke or WeFail
Wewon'twork
WhatWork?
I’m very excited about this. As a resident of San Francisco I’m hoping that this will free up a ton of housing and make it possible for those of us who don’t work in tech to be able to buy a house.
Yeah even if a lot of companies leave thats not going to do anything for you guys and when the big companies leave the small companies, restaurants, mom and pop shops, etc also close down so praying on the down fall of tech is ignorant. Those workers are the reason majority of you are employed. Who do you think you're mostly serving in those cities, the broke people? Lmfao, don't make me laugh.
I don’t know. As a fellow (but admittedly recent) SF resident, I think freeing up housing is only part of the problem. And in fact, when it happens abruptly it’s a big part of the doom spiral. Rent is sticky and population density is important for a city to function. When people leave en mass due to these collapses, local businesses suffer too
Move
NO GOLDBRICK WHY DONT U MOVE TO SF, HUH? HUH???
Of course SoftBank got a mention...
Flashback to another video Patrick Boyle made. This time there was no mention of Credit Suisse :)
They have never missed a fraud
Yes but not SPACs.
Credit suisse were more than capable of destroying their balance sheet without even putting a tie in the VC market. They may have had clients who were in the market but that’s about it.
They should just become a charity at this point
Maybe someone should make an AI driven app that helps failing startups register for bankruptcy - and make pizza of course.
WeBroke
To help VCs identify a dumb business model
Thats hilarious. Thanks
Krupt ai. Wait, pizza... Pizzai? Let me ask ai...
StartupFold AI
FlopBot
TechCrunch
Bankruptcy Bites
Bytes and Bites
Crust 'n Crunch Cruncher Co
They can't call be winners.
Touche
The more I learn about how venture capital functions, the more I realize how much of big business effectively runs on vibes, and how much a company's valuation (particularly in places like tech and finance) is often based on unrealistically cheery guesswork rather than what any actual numbers show.
It's all run on firm handshakes.
Realizing that it’s about feelings and collective mood is how I beat the market. Terrible mood surrounding a stock? I begin looking at the numbers and consider shifting a portion of my money out of mutual funds and into the thing that everyone knows will drop in value. When everyone knows it, there aren’t any sellers left.
Usually I have to abandon the investment idea, of course, because people are correct about fundamentals being poor. But this really is the way to find occasional good buys
"Valuations" are based on the sale price of the last round of financing rather than something akin to an appraisal.
100% of them will overstate the value of the company because of a quirk in the convention.
Valuations of public companies on the stock market are also total speculation and they are usually way overvalued. The analysts have an incentive for them to overvalue their stocks. It’s a very silly industry.
It’s why I never invested in the stock market even though I work in finance because it’s fake AF and just legalized gambling.
The failure of the 3D printed teeth liners is actually shocking. Legitimately sounds like a useful product.
it exists already within the b2b with many other brands, the difference was that they tried to do a direct 2 consumer, and usually your dentist scans your teeth and designs the movements needed to achieve your goal, with knowledge of your bone and teeth structure.
It usually means a year or more, of weekly teeth liners, with a visit to the dentist every month or so to review progression.
At the moment you really need a skilled professional and specific tooling to service the business, this is likely the reason for the flop.
My theory is that we've, in the developed nations, moved from creating actual tangible physical products , to services.
And thr problem with services is that, its easy to miscalculate th scale of your customer base.
With physical products you can write down on paper a list of companies that would need your product.
You can think of a niche service that hiosters might use and totally miscalculate your customer base.
For the last decade not even that. We made freaking cyber monopoly money and crypto gifs. No services just fantasy.
1. Previously, the Americans gave the Chinese a detailed description of all production processes and the final product.
2 Then the Americans forgot how to make drawings and what production was and therefore began to draw on paper what they wanted, and the Chinese produced it.
3. Now in the USA they don’t know how to draw and therefore they dictate what they want into a dictaphone and the Chinese produce it.
4. The next stage has already begun: Artificial intelligence shows Americans pictures of everything they might want for themselves, and Americans put crosses on the pictures and send them to factories in China, where the Chinese create the final product.
@@maxbig9021"America forgot how to make drawings".
Succinctly put. AI is making things so much worse. People are being bamboozled into not having an imagination, just what the computer dreams of. There's no joy in skill to be felt.
How does a business like peloton fit into this theory? They sell tangible hardware and everyone vastly overestimated the customer base.
Probably related to well off people being brainwashed into thinking that less well off people waste money. No, poor people who value exercise will absolutely get it for free
Laid off tech workers easily finding replacement jobs is absolutely untrue. If you're a software developer, or in software QA, the job market is an absolute disaster right now. Most new listings rocket to well more than 100 applications in just a few hours.
It’s even worse if you are an old, straight, white, male.
Didums,
Learn to lay bricks or weld
Standard advice to these folks is to git gud
Serious Question: are you just looking at jobs at top tech firms? For years it has been very hard to find talented engineers to work for ~$80-110k because even entry level jobs at FAANG, Samsung, etc. pay over $150k and come with the prestige. Would these workers be willing to work for $100k to find a job at a smaller firm that actually needs help and has an interesting problem to solve?
@@davidyalacki2599 last year we hired an engineer that had 10 years at GM. he was only making 100k after 10 years as a mechanical engineer. this is in buffalo so an inexpensive town but still seems low. year before we hired a recent graduate mechanical engineer . guy had about a year experience . 70k to start. that was above the going rate at the time. . he's up to 100k now as he's a good hands on guy.
I'm sick of seeing all of these new businesses on indeed. They are impossible to discern their validity, reliability, and long term stability.
Then get a job and stop looking at indeed
I worked in a very old nuclear company and then in a startup nuclear company. The old company did things 20 times faster than the startup. Just about all related startups would have progressed much faster if they first started with older designs, tweaked them, built something, learned what they could from that and iterated. (OODA loop) It constantly reminded me of Elon Musk focusing on basic first principals and Warren Buffet only investing in businesses that he understood.
The older led competent people have an understanding of what works completely and what does not...vs a young upstart which has never had experience in a tried and true marketplace that has worked out or not.
Disruptors Vs dinosaurs is a good story to tell investors
Nuclear, as in a small, tight knit one?
Patents. Iterating on an old idea doesn't allow for rent seeking over the next 30 years.
I’m so glad those scooters went away. I live in a small city and even here they were laying in the middle of the sidewalk all over the place. Can’t imagine what it was like in a city of millions.
they are a free way of getting parts to build stuff. their chips are realy easy to disable...
I'm sick there wasn't any near me
As the person above says, I could've used the cheap parts
I don't understand how anyone would think that a market with very low deployment costs and no moat could ever be very profitable?
Where I live people handle them quite well, it's rare to see one parked wrongly and people ride them like bicycles. I guess what matters is the people.
@@volundrfrey896no everybody can live in canada
Why would you want free beer on tap available to your employees? What companies or industries are there that would benefit from having employees constantly hammered?
I don't know, I had one job where I'd have a red wine with most lunches (from home, not from the company). It REALLY helped me get through the rest of the day.
It wasn’t for the benefit of their employees it was a marketing ploy to attract customers to relocate into their serviced offices. It was part of the urban cool image they tried to project and failed. It was a case of the Emperor’s New Clothes
Moderation.. because an actually well made hopped up ipa before work coffee improves function.. What do I know, i can outwork migrants at farms😅
It's pretty much like those play areas at Google and other such companies. They are there to attract employees and for prestige, but if you actually use it then you're gone pretty quick.
The scooter rental business?
Meh, most startups don't exist to create another Netflix, Apple, Amazon, etc. Most startups hope to be sold to be sold for a lot of money.
Yes, everyone just wants to be part of the Ponzi scheme. No one wants to make a real product
@Onlinerando They are being shut down because nobody wants to buy them. They just burn money in hopes of being sold. Most of them don't even make any product anybody wants.
@Onlinerando Shutting down startups is the new "selling those startups before someone finds out they are not profitable", it's the core design of the modern business model where "let's hire 20 to 50 modern slaves in the first year and see what will happen" is the main mantra
If your company is presenting their addressable market as the entire global population, telling you they have no competitors because of how unique their "idea" is and the metrics they use to update you on their "success" keep changing to only show positive movements be sure to keep your CV up to date.
SoftBank's poor investment choices should be a video in and of itself.
Based on Patrick's callouts of their selections, I think they could be an entire channel for themselves.
None of these companies had a plan to become profitable.
They all seem like get rich quick schemes.
@@jasperhorace7147they are 100%. The plan for most of these is to sell them before they go under for profit. The narcissistic pathological liar at WeWork that sold investors plates of shit and somehow the investors wanted steaming, runny, corn-filled seconds, absconded with some of the money without penalty and sold stakes in it became a billionaire. As in, he made up shit, was knowingly disingenuous, lied, and made himself filthy rich as a result. He’s most of these start ups poster child.
The videogame industry rely on wealthy idiots to pay for the game's production which is then a profit scheme.
You don't get back more value because you are pushing the donkey forward with a bullet train.
@@jasperhorace7147 They are. It's all about tricking investors into giving you money. After that, you just maintain a certain level of "growth" by selling your product/service for unsustainable prices. Finally, once the bottom false out, you give yourself a nice bonus and let the fictional construct of the company deal with the bankruptcy.
@@jasperhorace7147That’s because they were
That's a bummer. I had a great idea for a startup that combines my love for Finance, Bitcoin, rap, and rapping. I guess I'll just have to wait it out until the market is more favorable.
Don't forget blockchain.
And remember to advertise it with AI art while offering exclusive NFTs
Great suggestions, you've given me the confidence to pursue my dreams 😜. As I'm Dutch, I'd say Crockchain will be the name of my future empire. I'm confident it will be an outstanding success.
Fantastic video, Patrick, and I could not agree more. These business models were never sustainable, and now that it costs so much money to borrow money, unsustainable business models simply cannot survive. If these companies can't survive the "winter," they should not be propped up until they see another "summer."
Maybe I am a simpleton but most of these start ups are simply poorly run businesses and their valuation are purely artificial. WeWork branded itself as a tech company, whilst in reality it was a real estate business... Any amateur analyst can easily spot this.... Going public means big payday for some and the public investor picks up the liability
Yes, yes, yes! I am no financial expert but I have been asking myself long enough how all these new questionable business models could make money and the answer is that they weren’t. I am sad seeing this happening in tech because I am a software engineer but I am happy it is happening. I have been scared long enough to end up in one of these companies.
Curious what the leaders of these firms made during their tenure and what they walked away with. I have a feeling that all is not doom and gloom from that perspective.
#Clawback Time
In my opinion we are in diminishing returns territory for many startups. Here in Italy (and everywhere else) you have a ton of banking apps/contraptions that do the same thing with no real value driver and companies that find solutions to problems nobody had before. Nothing wrong with that, cleanups occur. Wish all the best to the people that need to change job! :)
In Spain we now have a plethora of digital payment apps. In fact there are so many that people are confusing the brand names with potato crisp companies, transport companies and low-cost airlines to mention a few. Absolute & utter chaos which is in fact motivating a strong return to cash!
Patrick, two questions: 1) did any start-ups without Softbank funding shut down? and 2) what percent of Softbank investments go belly-up?
Had a brief chat with a banker who works in business financing the other day--the accounts he manages, he told me, range from $30-million to $300-million. Since his dealings are mostly with already established businesses--and banks operate financing different than VCFs--I asked if he though the VC funds might be drying up. His reply was that they got deep pockets.
Didn't make sense, I told him, considering Theranos, WeWork, FTX, etc. . . .OR, to me it seems that these phenomena about putting billion$ kinda hackneyed ideas are coming to seem more and more like grift, and/or a sophisticated method of money laundering.
A billion$ is a lot of money; making $1000/day, one would have to work roughly 3000 years to make just $1-billion. Yet they're giving these 'charismatic' individuals this kind of money, just based off a few random criteria.
It's like a tube with an air hockey table that was dreamed up 100 years ago and too complicated and expensive to do. How Branson and others fell for the dream is wild.
Elon Musk is just a very rich bullshit merchant. Boring company, spacex suborbital flights, self driving, all 100% lies to make him look good
Good! These companies ran on hype and FOMO, including Elon's companies.
Hyperloop was by Virgin. Elon hasn't built Hyperloop past those uni student competitions. The Boring Company Vegas Loop is just Teslas.
Tesla is overvalued but at least is a functional company with a real product, space X gets that sweet us government money, starlink people appear to like it amd I think is also profitable although they are poluting space the other companies he ows should probably die, elon itself looks like a mad men he should just cut his losses snd ditch twitter but he probably doesn’t want Tesla stock to dip
Why are you being Musk into this? His companies are all very successful. Leave your left wing hate somewhere else.
To think I can't get a 100k for an app that is already being used, but these companies can get money for products that have no demand nor have made money.
Wonderful "economy"
The old central bank building in my city has been under renovation since before covid and lo and behold, wework offices that never opened
Most of the VC sphere doesn't have any customers or biz plan. The entire model is hype, PR and PnD.
I always feel bad when I hear or see a business dying, workers lossing their job and owners their project, but tech startups and specially Tech bros are SO ANNOYING That I'm conflicted on how to feel regarding this.
Great way to start Saturday Night!
Here it's a great way to start Sunday :D
If you're not part of layoff workers.
@@mbg9650 the people getting laid off never had a real job 🤣
Nothing is better for a Saturday night than listening about delulu entrepreneurial disasters and rap news.
greetings from Denmark
3:23 The food packaging industry has INSANE margins, and is quite profitable, especially if you have novel concepts. That's probably why Zume wanted to pivot in that direction.
Unfortunately the barrier to entry is also INSANE, which is probably why they couldn't raise the cash to do it.
What are some of the barriers aside from capital needed for machinery?
@@Reggaeshark. I have a friend who owns part of a food packaging co. He says machinery costs, dev costs, and sales cycle are the big ones. If you've got the pockets to handle that, it's a very lucrative biz.
The dead pan sarcastic jokes get me. They're awesome and cut so deep.
To be sure WeWork was by the international offices available, was very good, to us, consumers of beer
I recall spending a whole "working day there getting drunk, going to nap, play games, get drunk again, then go home" happiest membership package ever.
"Japan's Cathie Wood"
Amazing.
🇯🇵
This is the story the life that cycles over and over everywhere:
Every government in the world even in the most hostile areas: "We need more entrepreneurs for the good of our country!"
One entrentrepreneur that makes it big: "I made it big everyone but we still need more entrepreneurs everyone!"
Then the circle jerk off continues and the financials that drive it become exponentially toxic and public never understands this terrible cycle.
I believe people just want to get lucky and stay rich on the other people's back while pretending to be genuinely good. Until money gets attached to some sort of correlation of tangible effort of work then things will continue to become even more unfair. All the while the public will continue to become more stupid to understand why it keeps happening.
If money was actually tied to labour then capitalism would fall over. Businesses operate on the model of paying someone less than their work is worth so they can turn a profit.
Im not saying the downfall of capitalism would be a bad thing, mind, but these kinds of ridiculous bubbles and crashes are a result of the system working as intended.
@@JRCP144pretty Marxist view of it tbf
@@JRCP144 Honestly capitalism doesn't need to fall to still have a good functioning society but the public has been led to believe that extremes are only good for humanity. For example, why the hell are lottos designed to pour literally 99% to winners when it's already subjective on how the pot is decided. Same thing with the salary system with positions in job careers where executives for some reason see a massive jump of compensation as opposed to non-executive positions? The current governments in power just allowed it to happen and we're seeing the results of it.
Maybe it's culture, where the people with the money to invest are swayed into investing in outlandish ventures because societies have made giving into hype the norm.
There needs to be more small, mid size businesses with sound business plans and physical storefronts/offices instead of the stripped down tech thing where employees are just human capital that can be laid off if it makes shareholders happy.
Market saturation is a real thing. Many of these start ups shown here. They aim to scale the largest the fastest.
No more free money
*easy money
Easy money making people look smarter than they are.
@FreeCapitalist2022 and richer than they are. How many "millionaires" only lost money in business?
Not even for me? I'm making a cat Cafe with large cats
Quality content right here, this channel was one of my best findings of 2023
I like this format of explanation. No graphics, no sensationalism, no bs stock image , no exaggeration in the language. Please keep doing what you're doing. It feels so much better than the junk out there.
Patrick, we need an analysis of the ultimate source of these wasted billions and how the decision making occurs. There must be something else going on than poor choices.
Exactly! That's why I don't comment on these videos even if I can point out a problem or mock these companies,
people in the comments making me laugh, if you're so clever and have so much to say, where is your billion dollar successful company??? Huh? Can't even run your family right and you're taking
It's just money laundering. Always been.
trying to raise money for a company with more than 50k profit while some are given free money without even being profitable the world is really unfair
Try adding the word 'tech' to your company
Let’s start “valuations” in not-for-profits.
The problem is it is built around hype, not iteration. Say you are an executive at Corporation Y, and are given this choice between two pitches:
1) "My new wind turbine produces 10% more electricity, requires only 75% of the current maintenance that other models require, and can still operate in winds 10 kmph slower than the completion."
2) "This is the Gearocity power box. With a vibranium reactor inside, it can produce the output of an entire coal plant while producing no emissions and being the size of a shoebox. It is being controlled by an AI residing in the Ethereum blockchain. The vibranium is so reactive we cannot let you look inside, though. Just trust us that it does what we say, and that is not a case for a car battery with some wires stuck to it."
If Corporation Y is a venture capital firm, you pick option 1. If Corporation Y is an electric company, you pick option 2.
This video makes me feel less like a failiure. Thank you.
It's a great time to be an American economics youtuber. Between the housing crisis, rising homelessness, growing sense of discontent (both politically and economically), and wealth inequality, there's so much content. It's going to get even crazier when the billionaires cash out and take everything with them to a different country.
Okay, maybe not that last one, because what other country would put up with them? Also, the CIA would hunt them, unless bribed.
The reason they are billionaires is because US tech companies have been plundering the rest of the world destroying businesses with their blitz scale and extra jurisdictional tax advantages. Don’t assume that money should even be American.
Do you need shock therapy?
@@samsonsoturian6013 please be more specific with your query.
Clearly you don't, after getting it last week.
@@samsonsoturian6013
@@BirdRaiserE the CIA is gonna wire a car battery to you nipples and balls
As one snarky writer to another, Mr. Boyle, you rock!
I'm a "snark aficionado ", Patrick is good... big shoes to fill. ❤
He raps. He does not rock.
Insane how many companies are being stuffed with investor money even though it's obvious to everyone that they have no way of working or making money ever.
Obvious to everyone except the guys with money to invest. Really says something about the investor class
Watched a startup from the sidelines and it made me sick. Thing lost money for years but had gone public and so was propped up by investor money. Damn zombie companies, sucking up money that could've been spent on something much better. Hope they all go out of business and the VC's too! There's a sucker born every minute and some of them grow up to be VC's.
Probably more brokers manipulating things.
This makes me a bit more pessimistic but also more cautious on starting my own startup. I'm not an expert in business or economics but I do appreciate your take on things and how to be critical and careful.
It would be so good for our society for so many to literally lose everything. The obscene level of consumerism and the egos that go with it needs a massive overhaul. Start from nothing, learn what's really important.
I’m going to need to start hearing some good news, Patrick. 😅❤The hilarious comic relief bits sure do help 😉The robots delivering pizza choice was particularly prime 😂
“Who thought that renting scooters to drunk people, who would then throw them into a canal, would be a money losing business”
God i love this channel
The moment a similar program came to my town, i knew it was a failed business model. Scooters were being distributed in laughably bad locations, and then abandoned in the dirt everywhere until people just stopped trying them at all. There was never a real market for this here; the students and bar-hoppers that these were marketed to just walk if they live close enough, and take the bus or Uber if they don't.
@@Shadowcam00I don’t own a car. I never considered using these scooters. Walking has always been great.
Why purchase a bicycle when you can rent a scooter? I mean renting is cheaper than owning.
@@Shadowcam00 had friends in coastal towns say that they had to regulate drop off locations because, surprise, large untethered metal scooters can be dangerous in hurricane conditions. They also were designed to not run through a campus but would also just stop in dangerous parts of town
@@Shadowcam00 I would think the users credit card was charged enough to cover the cost of a scooter + proift...returned when the scooter was returned. In bulk how much could they be to produce..$150-200 maybe?
Bird scooters were in Denton, Texas, a college town of 50,000. I couldn't ride my bike on the bike paths there were so many scooters littering the paths.
Regarding the Zume pizza concept. If I understand it, they would make the pizza en route and you'd get it fresh. Its a great idea. In fact, it was a great idea in 1990 when Turbo Taco did exactly the same thing in Lawrence Kansas. If I had to guess, Turbo Taco wasn't the first to try the approach. While I loved it as a customer, I never understood how they expected to make money if they could only fill 3-4 orders an hour.
The failure is in the over personalisation - being summoned by 1 guy who ordered is 1 drive per order. It's a less functional version of the food trucks with a regular route along residential streets, because those get several regulars/passerby per drive and get regular repeat customers. *Jingle noise* = hot food outside is a much more effective advertising prompt than a phone notification that you'll probably ignore for food that you still have to wait for, as well.
Wework is scam , not start up.
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Patrick, you rule man. Perfect mix of serious material and entertaining, sarcastic comments. You are a TEDx Talks material. I have already suggested you once on their page. I need to do it again. Your way of presenting reminds me a bit of sir Ken Robinson whose TEDx Talk on Education (!?!) was one of the most viewed videos of all TEDx talks. Brilliant.
Your deadpan is absolutely glorious and is always keeping me on my toes when I listen to your content.
I think the main problem with a lot the more recent startup failures is that you realistically have to become a near monopoly to have any chance of being profitable, but since the barrier of entry for something like Uber or renting scooters is so low as soon as you have market share and raise prices new competitors will come in and this cycle will never end, hence no realistic way of becoming profitable even in the long run.
The problem more widely is that blitzscaled startups can’t turn profitable because their unit economics is flawed right from the start. They would need to heavily increase prices and cut down costs to have a chance at profit, which in majority of the cases is too steep of a change to sustain through.
@@RobVice Yeah, that's basically what I'm getting at as well. You have to be a monopoly and people are dependent on your product or service and then you have to raise prices as far as you need to, but that's the moment a new competitor has the chance to come in.
@@uselessDM Let us see how new competitor to Uber will fare (well, they do exist in some but limited markets)
Patricks golden humor!
Hi Patrick watched the BlackBerry film yesterday and enjoyed it very much. Would love to hear your take on the Blackberry story!
Plenty of these founders walked away with more money than most hard working people make in a lifetime.
A few years ago Lucid was hailed as the Tesla Killer. Now the company is worth less than 1% of Tesla’s valuation.
Hyperloop was a dead end upfront. Bird as well. Re-inventing Invisalign was dumb. And so on and so forth. All these were just too dumb to succeed.
Zombie firm: any company Softbank invests in.
I'm still waiting for that Tesla and AirBnB bubble to burst
Tesla stock hit the shitter bro. Lol. 😂
The FED’s low interest rates force the private economy to build “bridges to nowhere.”
So very true... sadly.
Not "force". "Entice".
@@mammajamma4397 This. There was nothing stopping instutional investors and VC from doing better DD.
I disagree. Those out of tech jobs can’t find another tech company that’s hiring. They all have hiring freezes while laying off thousands. TH-cam is filled with unemployed tech workers who are unable to find jobs. Likewise my GF lost her job from Citibank and none of the other banks are hiring so she is out of a career.
Never overheard in a softbank meeting: " How do you make money?"
Poking the algos. Great stuff yet again. 🎉
I never get tired of your deadpan delivery of the most hilarious lines in history
Hello from Vietnam! 38% of VCs may have disappeared where you are, but the VCs have not disappeared here.
“Peak valuation” is based on brokers pumping up value not earnings.