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I've unfortunately made a mistake in the video which was pointed out by some Bitcoin experts: whenever I talk about "encryption" I actually mean the Elliptic Curve Cryptography that is used to create the public/private key pair. Encryption would imply that there is some other key that would allow to obtain the private key from the public key, that is however not the case! Encryption can always be decrypted, hash functions cannot. Replace encryption with cryptographic algorithm. The mistake appears in 4:50, 8:06, 8:42, 8:53 and 9:09. Sorry about that!
Ah you mean if this changes anything? No, not at all it’s just that I didn’t get the terminology quite right. English is not my first language, so it happens.,.
The assumption that Bitcoin stands still while Quantum and other technologies shoot ahead is both foolish and flat out wrong (and bad investing as an investor reads the future for himself). Bitcoin is being integrated, adapted, upgraded, shaped all the time. Quantum computing is like Fusion. They have lovely test rigs that are unable to achieve any of the goals that would allow them to enter mainstream use.
But what if someone has 3 X 1000 QBIT computers? It means he could share the encryption task among this 3 computers and allow them to brake the Satoshi wallet encryption?
8:46: At that point, it will depend on the affected people to switch to the new public keys. Affected: Those whose public keys were revealed in the first place (spent their coins).
In 3:20 you say that a hash of the private key gives you the public key. This is not true! The private and public keys have a strict mathematical relation. In Bitcoin we use ECC. The private key is a random (long) number and the public key is a multiplication of the private key with a point (the generator) on the curve. No hashing involved
I wonder what data you saw that made you think we were on the 'slower side of things'? Genuinely curious. The screenshot you show at 7:37 shows a higher than doubling of qubits per year? From 2021 to 2022 is 3.4x? 2022 to 2023 is 2.5x? Are these overly optimistic/shareholder projections? Good video and explanation of bitcoin and the dangers
So in the paper there are two lines, one is a doubling every eight months and the other is every 20 months. If we were on the eight months line we would have 100 qubits by now. Also considering IBM’s roadmap they aim at having 1000+ qubits by 2023 so to be on the fast line they would have to have 10k by 2025 which is not possible at the current rate. Thank you!
You could but the research that I’ve seen suggests that they cannot beat the ASICs that are used at the moment. They are highly specialized and super fast. Also the algorithm that you would use for that on a quantum computer (Grover’s) doesn’t give the same speed up as Shor’s.
Bitcoin has 2^256 private keys. Run upgraded vanitygen software on a min 256 qubit quantum computer and voila! You got the target accounts’ private key. You do not have to crack ECDSA. Private key space is large but limited. When you run same qubits at the same time you could find the target key in seconds.
Haha what? How do you plan on running vanitygen on a quantum computer? I guess what you are suggesting is to check all the combinations, for which you could use Grover’s algorithm which gives you a speed up but it’s significantly slower than the method I discuss in the video from the paper :) Shor’s is the way to go in this case!
@@QuantumSteve first it wasn’t a funny thing that I wrote. Second if you can run any software to crack ECDSA why couldn’t run any software vanitygen (when I said vanitygen, I mean some kind of software like vanitygen), it is possible to crack target wallet with brute force with quantum computer.
No you cannot really run just any software on a quantum computer. What you can do is run specific algorithms for which you know or hope that there is a quantum speed up. Running classical brute force algorithms on a quantum computer is going to be slower than on classical computers due to its clock speed. A sophisticated quantum black box search algorithm that you can use is Grover’s which gives you a polynomial speed up over the classical version. Shor’s method however gives you an exponential speed up! This is actually discussed in the paper that I’m referring to. So once again Shor is the way to go, current research is very disputed when it comes to Grover. Some think that the overhead of loading classical data on the quantum computer kills all performance gain.
Whenever there will be a quantum machine that can break eliptic curve crypto nobody will know so fast. It would be a military advantage and used for other things (secretely) but attacking the Bitcoin. In the moment the Nakamoto-coins are transfered to some exchange, everybody would know about the existence of quantum computer and its owner (kyc at the exchange ...) ... So what?
Bitcoin designed with quantum threat in mind. Bitcoin can be added with other protocols for a higher level of protection. Just to make sure the new solution comes out before the quantum threat set in.
I'm more interested in how quantum computers might effect mining. Will a quantum computer mine up the rest of the bitcoin supply in a crazy short amount of time. The instant we get 1 fully working QC will mining bitcoin become useless?
Mining will most likely be unaffected, at least according to what I’ve read. This is because the ASICs that are used for mining now are super fast and very hard to beat. To do mining on a quantum computer you would use Grover’s algorithm which doesn’t give the same speed up as Shor’s. Also what you need to consider is that in mining is a game of who is the fastest (you have around 10min) , however to crack the crypto algorithm you can let the quantum computer run for days or weeks and get the private key which classically you cannot.
Around 5:20 you say that the IBM QC ran Shor's algorithm for N=35. I wasn't aware of that and to be honest i doubt this is true. We might have enough qubits to run the circuit for this number but the circuit depth needed for Shor's algorithm is currently far beyond IBMs reach. I will be extremely happy if someone proves me wrong!
A couple of point that lead to a question. First - D-Wave announced their 5,000 qubit quantum cloud platform availability. It is a different type of quantum computer but . . . that is fairly powerful. Second, IonQ announced they achieved a 99.9% qubit fidelity back in October. That is a giant move towards the perfect qubit! Now the question. Combined or individually, can you re-estimate when a quantum platform will be able to crack Bitcoin?
Ok so regarding the first question: D-Wave is a quantum annealer which means that it can only solve optimization problems. It cannot run any other algorithm such as the one discussed in the vid. So nothing to worry about when it comes to crypto. Regarding the second question: IonQ has some very impressive stats but it will be very interesting to see how they are going to scale, it seems to me like superconducting quantum computing has a clearer path. Nevertheless, to run the algorithm you will need error correction so perhaps the overhead on the IonQ device will be lower than on the IBM device. What I’ve heard is that there will be a factor 10 difference which means essentially just a few years considering that the number of qubits double. So basically even if IonQ turns out to be able to scale without issues I think it’ll only change the time line by a few years. But I haven’t done the math that’s just my two cents.
Oh very interesting, thanks for sharing. I figured that you could cast it into an optimization problem but honestly D-Wave has been around for some time and they still haven’t shown a quantum advantage. Some people think they never will, I honestly don’t know. It seems that for most hard problems you require exponentially long annealing times. This is why the QAOA seems promising! Perhaps using the QAOA to solve the factoring can be done? I’ve heard something about Variational Factoring from IonQ so I think it’s been tried already. I’ll have to look into it! What’s clear is that the speed up over classical methods is less clear, for Shor we know it for certain.
@@QuantumSteve I have a theory about that :-) Perhaps D-Wave like others are trying to avoid regulation that could accompany proof of the decryption capability - your thoughts?
Isnt traditional data mining approach not working for that private key solving? I mean how current computers can detect password for email or sorts, just like ENIAC solved nazi code, by processing huge amount of emails and passwords and finding similarities, thus making problem scope smaller? Many email passwords use same SHA256 as bitcoin, tho smaller amount of bits, but this way current computers can solve it sometimes.
I think there will be advancements in the understanding of quantum mechanics that will allow for different kinds of quantum computers that are able to utilize qubits in different ways and in effect allow you to multiply the number of qubits available for computing at a faster rate. Therefore you can break the cryptographic algorithm slot sooner
Yes, I do agree that around 2030-2035, there will be some massive change assuming that we will have scalable high-volume quantum computers. Progress is surely slow but in the end, the result is well .... "costly", but achievable.
I totally agree! Once we have the hardware to actually run the algorithm it might at first take weeks or months to break the encryption, but that’s then already very worrying for everyone that’s using elliptic curve encryption.
@@QuantumSteve Well, we won't have to, because businesses and governments are also working hard to tackle those problems. The damage should be minimal since the adapt-change time will be bogusly fast. Just think about how fast people in the world use (version to version) since 1990-now and you'll see it. I can tell from a normal user perspective. What do you think? From programmer/engineer perspective?
@@LongLe-vc8qq I can only answer from a physicists perspective :) At the moment it seems very much like science fiction, but I have to say that the progress over the last two years has been very impressive. Also, I think something that they didn't consider in the paper that I mentioned is that there are many different other error correction schemes that could potentially also work and require significantly less qubits.
@@QuantumSteve You forgot to mention: Cheaper, and more affordable. By the way, I have a question. How many steps do I have to take to calculate 3 x 5 = 15 in a quantum computing way? I really don't know how to do that.
Are you refering to Shor's algorithm (figuring out the primes that make up 15) or do you want to perform multiplication? If it's the latter you can watch quantum calculator video, where I do just that.
@@QuantumSteve so we definitely need a validator against that. Maybe a dapp that holds everything together against copying. Decentralizion really comes with the problems. I thought I can secure my coins in my cold wallet but the mining or encrypting capacity that the quantum computers has is actually can cause a huge inflations or deflations in the market. So as I know bitcoin mining is limited by 21 million. If we centralize the validation of coin at least, maybe we can solve the problem. I guess we will see a lot of fakecoins, replicacoins in the future, although we already seeing it. Thank you for the answer by the way. I really wanted to discuss this topic with somebody and here you are sir, thank you.
So in terms of mining I’d really not worry. I’ve gone into the details of why in two questions on mining in the comments already, please have a look. The only thing that we need is to upgrade the algorithm that generates the public-private key pair to a quantum save algorithm. This will have to happen as a soft fork most likely and we have to hope that many people and wallets upgrade. I’m not sure what you mean by your validator idea, can you clarify?
@@QuantumSteve if encryption will be solved by quantum computers, that means they can create my money that I already have right? But what if I would run a decentralized protocol that validates my code and checks it if that it is actually unique and makes it a whole, strong piece with holding the history of all the coins that mined. I don't know I am just thinking way too much. Maybe I misunderstood the abilities of quantum computers lol
To keep up with the latest research developments in quantum computing sign up to www.paperparrot.ai/.
We send you a weekly AI-generated newsletter with the latest research papers in quantum computing based on your interests (for free).
I've unfortunately made a mistake in the video which was pointed out by some Bitcoin experts: whenever I talk about "encryption" I actually mean the Elliptic Curve Cryptography that is used to create the public/private key pair.
Encryption would imply that there is some other key that would allow to obtain the private key from the public key, that is however not the case!
Encryption can always be decrypted, hash functions cannot. Replace encryption with cryptographic algorithm.
The mistake appears in 4:50, 8:06, 8:42, 8:53 and 9:09. Sorry about that!
How legit is the video now?
??
@@QuantumSteve What I wanted to ask is, will quantum computing be a threat now to bitcoin?
Ah you mean if this changes anything? No, not at all it’s just that I didn’t get the terminology quite right. English is not my first language, so it happens.,.
@@QuantumSteve Oh great, thanks.
How about mining using quantum computer
Is it good or bad
73Qbit is so large number
Good but not worth
The assumption that Bitcoin stands still while Quantum and other technologies shoot ahead is both foolish and flat out wrong (and bad investing as an investor reads the future for himself). Bitcoin is being integrated, adapted, upgraded, shaped all the time. Quantum computing is like Fusion. They have lovely test rigs that are unable to achieve any of the goals that would allow them to enter mainstream use.
I bet this videos gonna get recommended to so many people :)
But what if someone has 3 X 1000 QBIT computers? It means he could share the encryption task among this 3 computers and allow them to brake the Satoshi wallet encryption?
8:46: At that point, it will depend on the affected people to switch to the new public keys.
Affected: Those whose public keys were revealed in the first place (spent their coins).
Funny how People making jokes on Bitcoin security where their bank encryption relies on the same thing.
Every thing at stake dear friends.
Really funny, especially when people find that the bank encryption is even weaker than that on cryptocurrencies.
Not the bars of gold buried under my 10 houses on 100 acres on prime real estate around the globe that only I know about.
People are scared of change. Humans prefer to be sheep not wolves in charge of their own money.
It seems to me that the progress in QC is accelerating so I think it will happen before 2030
Bitcoin has not solid base. Supper Computer. Any reason suhtdown .then what will be happen?
In 3:20 you say that a hash of the private key gives you the public key. This is not true! The private and public keys have a strict mathematical relation. In Bitcoin we use ECC. The private key is a random (long) number and the public key is a multiplication of the private key with a point (the generator) on the curve. No hashing involved
Yes, you are right there are some inaccuracies in the terminology.
Quantum Computer will nail it for sure. And that from a Bitcoin Holder LOL. But it will!
I wonder what data you saw that made you think we were on the 'slower side of things'? Genuinely curious. The screenshot you show at 7:37 shows a higher than doubling of qubits per year?
From 2021 to 2022 is 3.4x? 2022 to 2023 is 2.5x? Are these overly optimistic/shareholder projections?
Good video and explanation of bitcoin and the dangers
So in the paper there are two lines, one is a doubling every eight months and the other is every 20 months. If we were on the eight months line we would have 100 qubits by now. Also considering IBM’s roadmap they aim at having 1000+ qubits by 2023 so to be on the fast line they would have to have 10k by 2025 which is not possible at the current rate. Thank you!
What quantum computer service that allow shor or groves algorithm? And how many qubits needed to break rsa for at least?
They say in the video how many for BTC. I guess it depends on RSA by the key size
Would you be able to mine crypto currencies via quantum computing?
You could but the research that I’ve seen suggests that they cannot beat the ASICs that are used at the moment. They are highly specialized and super fast. Also the algorithm that you would use for that on a quantum computer (Grover’s) doesn’t give the same speed up as Shor’s.
Perfect estimations. i too believe that investors should cash out before 2030.
if hacker crack bitcoin by QC, there will be panic and affects bitcoin price to near zero, then the hacker gets nothing in the end, so why bother
Very high quality video sir, will keep a look on your channel!
No problem i will just purchase a quantum computer in 2027 in case i lose my seed phrase
That will just be $10 million sir, will you pay with cash or card?
@@QuantumSteve I’ll pay in btc 😂
@@wissiwizard4536 good one
Bitcoin has 2^256 private keys. Run upgraded vanitygen software on a min 256 qubit quantum computer and voila! You got the target accounts’ private key. You do not have to crack ECDSA. Private key space is large but limited. When you run same qubits at the same time you could find the target key in seconds.
Haha what? How do you plan on running vanitygen on a quantum computer?
I guess what you are suggesting is to check all the combinations, for which you could use Grover’s algorithm which gives you a speed up but it’s significantly slower than the method I discuss in the video from the paper :) Shor’s is the way to go in this case!
@@QuantumSteve first it wasn’t a funny thing that I wrote. Second if you can run any software to crack ECDSA why couldn’t run any software vanitygen (when I said vanitygen, I mean some kind of software like vanitygen), it is possible to crack target wallet with brute force with quantum computer.
No you cannot really run just any software on a quantum computer. What you can do is run specific algorithms for which you know or hope that there is a quantum speed up. Running classical brute force algorithms on a quantum computer is going to be slower than on classical computers due to its clock speed. A sophisticated quantum black box search algorithm that you can use is Grover’s which gives you a polynomial speed up over the classical version. Shor’s method however gives you an exponential speed up! This is actually discussed in the paper that I’m referring to. So once again Shor is the way to go, current research is very disputed when it comes to Grover. Some think that the overhead of loading classical data on the quantum computer kills all performance gain.
Whenever there will be a quantum machine that can break eliptic curve crypto nobody will know so fast. It would be a military advantage and used for other things (secretely) but attacking the Bitcoin. In the moment the Nakamoto-coins are transfered to some exchange, everybody would know about the existence of quantum computer and its owner (kyc at the exchange ...) ... So what?
Good point, let’s hope :)
isn't the Satoshi wallet on a DEFi wallet or on a cold wallet with no KYC?
Bitcoin designed with quantum threat in mind. Bitcoin can be added with other protocols for a higher level of protection. Just to make sure the new solution comes out before the quantum threat set in.
Thanks!
You sir, deserve thousands of subscribers. Great video.
I'm more interested in how quantum computers might effect mining. Will a quantum computer mine up the rest of the bitcoin supply in a crazy short amount of time. The instant we get 1 fully working QC will mining bitcoin become useless?
Mining will most likely be unaffected, at least according to what I’ve read. This is because the ASICs that are used for mining now are super fast and very hard to beat. To do mining on a quantum computer you would use Grover’s algorithm which doesn’t give the same speed up as Shor’s. Also what you need to consider is that in mining is a game of who is the fastest (you have around 10min) , however to crack the crypto algorithm you can let the quantum computer run for days or weeks and get the private key which classically you cannot.
Around 5:20 you say that the IBM QC ran Shor's algorithm for N=35. I wasn't aware of that and to be honest i doubt this is true. We might have enough qubits to run the circuit for this number but the circuit depth needed for Shor's algorithm is currently far beyond IBMs reach.
I will be extremely happy if someone proves me wrong!
Here you go: journals.aps.org/pra/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevA.100.012305
@@QuantumSteve thanks!
What do you think of the crypto currency called "IOTA"? Is it quantum computingproof?
A couple of point that lead to a question. First - D-Wave announced their 5,000 qubit quantum cloud platform availability. It is a different type of quantum computer but . . . that is fairly powerful. Second, IonQ announced they achieved a 99.9% qubit fidelity back in October. That is a giant move towards the perfect qubit! Now the question. Combined or individually, can you re-estimate when a quantum platform will be able to crack Bitcoin?
Ok so regarding the first question: D-Wave is a quantum annealer which means that it can only solve optimization problems. It cannot run any other algorithm such as the one discussed in the vid. So nothing to worry about when it comes to crypto.
Regarding the second question: IonQ has some very impressive stats but it will be very interesting to see how they are going to scale, it seems to me like superconducting quantum computing has a clearer path. Nevertheless, to run the algorithm you will need error correction so perhaps the overhead on the IonQ device will be lower than on the IBM device. What I’ve heard is that there will be a factor 10 difference which means essentially just a few years considering that the number of qubits double. So basically even if IonQ turns out to be able to scale without issues I think it’ll only change the time line by a few years. But I haven’t done the math that’s just my two cents.
Factoring as an optimization problem
a good paper by Raouf Dridi and Hedayat Alghassi (arxiv.org/abs/1604.05796).
Oh very interesting, thanks for sharing. I figured that you could cast it into an optimization problem but honestly D-Wave has been around for some time and they still haven’t shown a quantum advantage. Some people think they never will, I honestly don’t know. It seems that for most hard problems you require exponentially long annealing times. This is why the QAOA seems promising! Perhaps using the QAOA to solve the factoring can be done? I’ve heard something about Variational Factoring from IonQ so I think it’s been tried already. I’ll have to look into it! What’s clear is that the speed up over classical methods is less clear, for Shor we know it for certain.
@@QuantumSteve I have a theory about that :-) Perhaps D-Wave like others are trying to avoid regulation that could accompany proof of the decryption capability - your thoughts?
@@kevincoleman8549 Haha well honestly I don't think so :) But only time will tell!
hmm...what if first say to try and mine 3.000.000 bitcoin in 2 sec after say I'm buying it.
Mining won’t be impacted by quantum computers.
Isnt traditional data mining approach not working for that private key solving? I mean how current computers can detect password for email or sorts, just like ENIAC solved nazi code, by processing huge amount of emails and passwords and finding similarities, thus making problem scope smaller? Many email passwords use same SHA256 as bitcoin, tho smaller amount of bits, but this way current computers can solve it sometimes.
No, just too many different combinations.
Better question would be can quantum computers mine Bitcoin ?
I’ve answered this question already in the comments :) short answer: yes but not very fast.
I think there will be advancements in the understanding of quantum mechanics that will allow for different kinds of quantum computers that are able to utilize qubits in different ways and in effect allow you to multiply the number of qubits available for computing at a faster rate. Therefore you can break the cryptographic algorithm slot sooner
I highly doubt it, but we will see :)
Quantum Steve it’s cuz ur biased. Cryptography is old tech
Love IT!
I searched this video. I find this video.
Yes, I do agree that around 2030-2035, there will be some massive change assuming that we will have scalable high-volume quantum computers. Progress is surely slow but in the end, the result is well .... "costly", but achievable.
I totally agree! Once we have the hardware to actually run the algorithm it might at first take weeks or months to break the encryption, but that’s then already very worrying for everyone that’s using elliptic curve encryption.
@@QuantumSteve Well, we won't have to, because businesses and governments are also working hard to tackle those problems. The damage should be minimal since the adapt-change time will be bogusly fast. Just think about how fast people in the world use (version to version) since 1990-now and you'll see it. I can tell from a normal user perspective.
What do you think? From programmer/engineer perspective?
@@LongLe-vc8qq I can only answer from a physicists perspective :) At the moment it seems very much like science fiction, but I have to say that the progress over the last two years has been very impressive. Also, I think something that they didn't consider in the paper that I mentioned is that there are many different other error correction schemes that could potentially also work and require significantly less qubits.
@@QuantumSteve You forgot to mention: Cheaper, and more affordable. By the way, I have a question. How many steps do I have to take to calculate 3 x 5 = 15 in a quantum computing way? I really don't know how to do that.
Are you refering to Shor's algorithm (figuring out the primes that make up 15) or do you want to perform multiplication? If it's the latter you can watch quantum calculator video, where I do just that.
Quantum computer going predict mega lottery instead hacking cryptocurrency
No, they are definitely never going to predict the lottery. Most likely lotteries will use quantum computers to get truly random numbers.
Your channel is amazing!
Well. Ain't my cold wallet gonna work?
No, what difference does that make? Key is key, no matter the format.
@@QuantumSteve so we definitely need a validator against that. Maybe a dapp that holds everything together against copying. Decentralizion really comes with the problems. I thought I can secure my coins in my cold wallet but the mining or encrypting capacity that the quantum computers has is actually can cause a huge inflations or deflations in the market. So as I know bitcoin mining is limited by 21 million. If we centralize the validation of coin at least, maybe we can solve the problem. I guess we will see a lot of fakecoins, replicacoins in the future, although we already seeing it. Thank you for the answer by the way. I really wanted to discuss this topic with somebody and here you are sir, thank you.
So in terms of mining I’d really not worry. I’ve gone into the details of why in two questions on mining in the comments already, please have a look.
The only thing that we need is to upgrade the algorithm that generates the public-private key pair to a quantum save algorithm. This will have to happen as a soft fork most likely and we have to hope that many people and wallets upgrade. I’m not sure what you mean by your validator idea, can you clarify?
@@QuantumSteve if encryption will be solved by quantum computers, that means they can create my money that I already have right? But what if I would run a decentralized protocol that validates my code and checks it if that it is actually unique and makes it a whole, strong piece with holding the history of all the coins that mined. I don't know I am just thinking way too much. Maybe I misunderstood the abilities of quantum computers lol
@@QuantumSteve but I definitely going to follow your channel and refer it to my friends, sir.
Quantum computers.......Fusion reactors........meh
Quantum supremacy has been achieved in 2019, it‘s only a matter of time.
Great video.
gg
Quantum computer built: 10yrs
Bitcoin network upgrade: 10hrs
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