What Broke U.S. Recession Indicators | Mark Zandi
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 มิ.ย. 2024
- Moody's Analytics' chief economist Mark Zandi cautions that a recession may be on the horizon.
In an interview with CNBC's Andrea Miller, Zandi said a recession did not occur in the first half of this year. Zandi called employment levels the "most important indicator[s]" of a recession. With unemployment at the low rate of 3.5%, he doesn't buy the view that two back-to-back quarters of negative growth alone are sufficient to make for a recession.
But Zandi did warn that he expects layoffs to increase in the days ahead.
"With this kind of low unemployment, inflation’s going to remain a problem," he said, and to address that the Federal Reserve has signaled it will continue to raise interest rates in an attempt to slow down the job market.
Zandi attributed the confusion about whether the U.S. experienced a recession in the first half of this year to the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "These two massive supply shocks have hit the economy at roughly the same time," Zandi said, which makes interpreting the data about the economy particularly challenging.
The Moody's chief economist said that if rising prices don't ebb “the only way to get rid of that persistent stubborn inflation would be to push the economy into a recession.” If there is a recession, Zandi said it "probably won’t happen until the second half of 2023."
As to preparing for a downturn, Zandi said Americans should "spend, save, invest in the same way that they typically do," but to remain cautious.
“Americans don’t need to run for the bunkers,” he said. “But maybe keep one hand on the bunker door just to be safe and sound.”
Watch the full interview in the video above.
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What Broke U.S. Recession Indicators | Mark Zandi
This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
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‘’Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets ... any sound investment will eventually pay off."
Making it out at a young age is quite difficult. I started a side hustle at 17, saved up and made some good investments. l'm 28,live on my own and having a good life for myself. Big ups to you and everyone out there trying
Sounds like plan, how do you put money to work?
@@kathyfrugalsen3047 Yes it sure is. I put in money in investments and get profits. That 's how I make more money without working. This does not sound new to you right ?
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With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stock portfolio
An uptick in volatility is not necessarily a bad thing, there are opportunities to be found even in this whirlwind. Best advice just get yourself a coach to guide you in this current market
@@piercejordan5335 I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging and I could really use some guide, but are they really that effective though?
I've actually been wondering what to do to my portfolio, I almost sold off Friday, I'll be retiring soon so the anxiety is just too much, I searched-out Kathryn Cecilia Hill and she really checked out, thanks! I really needed this
I love how we're just rolling along with this new definition of recession like they didn't just change it
Idle money gets killed due to inflation. I'm in a privileged position to be able to save almost 65% of our net household income, placed it on safer investment . The key for us was not spending beyond our means. In this era you have to hold on to every dollar and make it count.
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Just a quick question guys! If you have a couple of thousands of dollars per month to invest what's the best place to invest that money in? Thank you in advance. 🙏🏻
@@ramajumdar as a beginner i suggest you need a financial advisor to guide you on that
@@thomasginola9809
Thank you. I appreciate it. I was trying to figure out if it's worth paying $300 an hour to a financial advisor. But I might give it a shot..
I remember when recession was defined as 2 negative quarters of GDP. We’re already in a recession.
They explained that it's only one part of it. And jobs reports and unemployment the leading indicator.
Na, these stupid fools now look at Big tech and if they are still doing good means we aren't in a recession yet.
Textbook definition. They (being Bureau of Economic Research) changed it to move the goal posts. Anyone guess why? Perhaps it has to do with November midterms.... just maybe....
@@doomtomb3 it being labelled as a recession or not doesn't change anything
@@doomtomb3 The definition of a recession has never changed. Gdp has always been one part of multiple recessions indicators.
he has no idea what will happen
No one does. There are a lot of variables at play. The big thing I got from him was operate in the economy like normal but prepare for the worst.
@@enriquemercedes9519 inflation caused by pandemic and war. Higher interest rate can cure viruses and end wars!
Don't raise interest rates to high stop judging if you don't know
Neither do you. Or anyone else for that matter. Figuring out the economy is hard for the smartest of people. Still, they are less wrong than than you or I would be. So it's still best to listen to them.
@@PristinePerceptions trolls like you who criticize open dialog are not moving us forward
Even this guy says Inflation is due to Supply Shocks, not Labor. So why are we trying to raise interest rates with the intended effect of lowering employment.
Reduce demand, this indirectly increases supply by reducing consumption
He left out a crucial piece of the inflation puzzle: what about the millions in stimulus printed?
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Four million workers are out with long COVID and another million died. Add it Retirees as Cad (below) says and the labor market is tighter still. Also, we are reducing the enormous stimulus which produces a negative growth in GDP but can still leave full employment. The strong dollar is also an issue for accounting.
Covid deaths and sickness don’t get the credit they deserve for this hot job market.
Let' face it, those out due to covid were already out to begin with.
A million American deaths due to COVID-19 is 0.3% and most of those people weren't "workers" i.e. elderly, retired, etc.
@@doomtomb3 long covid is millions for sure nearly half the population is over weight and that puts you at higher risk so over the past 2 years they made it sound like 5% of the population is at risk conservatively 35+% is it risk
@@doomtomb3 so you are citing elderly people for deaths, but counting children in the total population before you do your percentage. I don’t know if you’re intentionally being deceptive or just didn’t think of how incorrect that thinking is.
I have been a fan of Mark Zandi for 20 years. He has a straight forward way of communicating economic information to us common folk.
Only thing he definitely said will happen is more layoffs are coming
I need a vacay
With the number of people retiring right now, the job market will not slow down. Mark is reacting as if it is 20 years ago, not demographics as they are NOW.
Yes there will be a slow down, yes layoffs will expand, but not to the point Mark is alluding to, there just are not that many people in vulnerable jobs. We need a large group of support workers, truckers, grocers, and more, and those who keep them with material to move and sell. Frivolous spending will take a hit, (restaurants and bars and vacations etc.).
if we have another historic recession it wont matter
😂
i feel like 90 % of people dont take into consideration how this once in 100 yr pandemic is likely to cause a historic memorable recession or depression it take it most people think this is going to be a typical downturn if it is it will defy history cause we never had a easy downturn after a large scale pandmic
Similar to the 1918 pandemic, though WWI played a major factor as well
@@jtgd this war we are in right now is nothing like afganastan im not sure where it ranks but id guess in the top 5 but my comment was about how so many people think we are going into a normal average recession like before 2008
No comments?
No
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Congress needs to impose excised taxes on high profits of all corporations, Its the only way to slow inflation. Hurting people with increasing interest will not slow the inflation. HIGH INFLATION IS CAUSED BY OVER PRICING OF GOODS BY CORPORATIONS.
2 quarters of negetative GDP growth is a recession.
but usually rising unemployment is another requirement (which isn't happening atm.....)
Gas prices were high BEFORE Ukraine.
A lot of those jobs numbers are skewed by people taking second jobs to make ends meet.
200% employment rate is possible!
Those don't count towards the unemployment rate. Only the 1st job does
it's just the big #market makers covering their shorts before expiration of option contracts. The selling will resume after 20th October unless the #Fed stops pulling out money from the market. A #metaverse gaming that you shouldn't miss is #TheMera #DeFiWarrior #crypto #btc
First time seeing Andrea lol
Yea, like they hired a High School student 🤣
2:57 False. Wages growth is significantly less than inflation aka not the problem.
Funny how they are always trying to gaslight you that your wages should be less. We can have this conversation again when C-Suite compensation is slashed, profit margins are razor thin, and no stock buybacks are occuring
Price gouging prior to recession, fed moves targeting individuals, not source of this fake inflation, will hurt doubly bad when the inevitable recession hits. What goes up must come down, except now salaries never go up.
So this is that lovely narrator's voice that I've always been hearing but whose beautiful face I've never been seeing.
What his name?
As long as the Fed keeps up their strategy of raising interest rates, we'll see the economy take the brunt of it. It's their way to fight inflation, cause inflation is the enemy of interest rates.
It kind of depends which party is in office to determine if it's a recession or not right.
Not really. Bureau of Economic Research doesn't announce a recession until 7 months after 2 quarters on negative GDP on average.
@@HH-le1vi Definition of recession. Generally identified by a fall in GDP in two" successive quarters.
lies the president wants you to think 🤔🤔: )
They usually don’t admit that we are in a recession, until they announce that we are coming out of a recession.
Why her tone sounds sassy? Is it just certain way of people in the states like cali talks?
Listening to this video I realized I was just wasted my time this guy didn't say anything.
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He's a democrat...what did you expect????
@@jehovahwitness4584 hey you didn't say anything either.
you trust moodys analytics ?
Recession has already started, and what the FED have done, as BCE, increase the interest rate, like the Space Shuttle, is wrong... The problem is push on production not on demande. They should increase the interest rate slowly becase this take time to hit the day to day.
friend of mine has been raking it in just back and forth between SQQQ and TQQQ, all he does is watch the premarket activity, and do the inverse of those algorithm trades from wall street; never knew the stock market could be this predictable
In other words he has no idea what the future holds
Very likely, an outside force caused this recession. The US dollar's influence as a government reserve currency is waning for the first time in decades. The ability to control inflation is no longer possible, and less money is being spent on oil and stock trading than in the past. These all lend credence to the notion that a new multilateral international order is being developed.
The same Great Depression worries at the the start of the pandemic are still valid, we have just became good at spreading it out over time instead of one sudden whack. This will be a very slow and long trudge of economic desperation for most Americans for years to come. My main nworry is Social Security, which was to become insolvent in less than 12 years BEFORE the pandemic. We have a year or so more to be able to accurately determine how much that timeline shortened. We may actually have some of the Boomer generation experience that immediate %22 drop in benefits (or worse).
100% your literally the 1st comment like this going thru 100s in different videos its really scarey people dont put this likely hood the highest outside 2008 this is way worse then almost every recession going from 1940-2000 then again nobody alive today has seen the depression of 1920 or 1929 so how can i expect people to worry about it i havent seen aliens so i never think about it ether
Only the recently and soon to be retiring are worried about social security. The rest of us know we won't get a nickel of it. You cant have 40m people pay for 60m retirees and think it's fiscally possible
@@HH-le1vi what about the young disabled? im 29
@@brianoleson9224 I hope you find some remote work cause in 10 years there won't be any money for anyone
@@HH-le1vi i better invest in my night night pill then
Cant hear a thing lol
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Everyone in this video is so awkward
Yeah but no one wants to admit that one reason inflation is running ramped because of people getting more money hence minimum wage increases. Because now people can tell that others get paid more others can charge more and it keeps moving around. Jacking up interests won’t really help. On top of everything else. And no I support good wages for my employees where we pay top dollar but hey we charge more to have them make more money. Idk how people will ever be able to afford things. It’s just ridiculous on how people have to be forced to live super low and get given a false narrative of working hard to succeed but get paid very little to succeed. I really don’t see how any of this will get fixed on either side.
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This guy thinks we should never pay off the debt and just keep borrowing borrowing with a strong economy, that's the problem with the world is everybody is in debt
nobody pays for anything with their own money
Yes we are ready in ression don't care what this guy says
Zandt used to be a perma bull now he just keeps saying bearish things...
😎😎😎😎😎😎
Market makers against retail that's all. When 70%+ buybuybye= bye I'm bearish, 70%+ sellsellSir=I'm bullish lol. I'm buying quality companies with direxions ETFs tho, raise cash when spike and buy every dip. Big boys hate guys like me 😆
Fake Dollar Illusion..$$
❓⁉️ who let the Orange Cheeto hair college intern throw this guy softball questions ❓
Looking like she asked for the chester cheetah special
You will see with less oil in the economy you will always have a strong job market but most of these jobs Will be slavery type of jobs … jobs won’t ever be a sign of wealth of the economy overall anymore jobs figures will become irrelevant
Whatever happened to the quality of presenters?? 🤔
It definitely improved 💘 😻
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Layoffs? Lol, there r jobs everywhere, ppl dont want them cuz they payShitty!
Thank you! My employer won’t give me a raise and here soon I’ll be making minimum wage. Meanwhile they keep slashing my hours
Higher wages will be passed on to consumers. The question is, how many of us are willing to pay extra for essentials and near-essentials to ensure things get better for folks we don't know.
@@aritragupta4182 gupta, u r in usa now stop thinking like Indian. The 1% of greedy mtfck must share the wealth with others! And prices will not go up.
Cringe Af!
Why?
@@DrJohnnyJ Because OP is a dumb bot that writes the same comment on every videos.
We've been in a recession since COVID started.
i believe its not a recession but the 1st depression in 90 years in 2030 wikipedia will revise the " 2020 covid recession" to something like pandemic crisis or deb crisis 2020-2026
😂😂😂😂A fool
He makes millions, how much you make?
@@atorres11720 millionaires can’t be fools? 😂
what broke? cnbc, tell that it's that thing in ukraine
Since our commander & chief is eating an ice cream cone and said our economy is strong, we must be ok. j
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Trump goin to jail
They will withhold medicine.
why isnt biden going to jail he has put almost everyone world wide in danger billions hes worse then every criminal in history put together cause they never hurt 7billion people
@@brianoleson9224 i agree his time will come too, maybe it will be his son to do the time for him soon
Unprofessional host. Low value interview. Waste of time.
You nervous sweety ?
Despite the economic downturn, I'm having the best time of my life financially. Earning over $83k in the last 2months with an investment of $19,000. Money can be made even in a bear market. Make the most of it.
be careful people, these comments are scams, I followed the the accounts and their comment on different videos, there are multiple accounts that post the same thing on different videos. either they made 83k from 19k in 2 months, or 57 k from 6k or they need assistance to investment in bitcoin or ... and all of them want to advertise for someone named Angelia Maria Brown. they basically spark up conversation with eachother to advertise this so called "broker".
these are the accounts that I've found
MoanGT - wil Bane, Anna Emily - gray - james luke - williams Hohnson - Evelyn Ava - Noah John - james daniel -Mirand sophie - Tony hanng - daniel cole
can i suggest you guys that just let her talk all the program without making interviews cos that makes the show so boring cos most of these interviewed people are so boring 🥱😲