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At the moment, Germany is playing a game to divide Poland and Ukraine. The military and humanitarian aid that we have given to the Ukrainians is being reduced. Germany is trying to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible. They need Russia to get the German economy back on track, because right now it is not even the shortness of breath of German industry, but the wheezing before falling on its stupid face. Germany has made tragic mistakes in the last 30 years in industry and diplomacy, and now it is time to pay. They want the price to be lower and are trying to shift the responsibility to others.

Poland has already 240 Leo, so we are not buying it anymore. Attack helicopter can be very useful in counter-attacking defence, like Russian used in 2023 to eliminate Ukrainian breakthrough (very fast, can protect quite big area, there in no enemy manpads over your own territory). Also, russian heli countermeasure are not that advanced like Apache, and russian manpads are not that advanced like Piorun as well.

Awesome

We're going to see them maximize what a small army can do because conscription and reserves won't get them the mass they need. SK is in a very similar boat of a rapidly aging population.

czyżby Koreańczycy byli lepsi od USA? bardziej elastyczni i zdecydowani na pomoc? Środek ciężkości z Izraela przesuwa się w kierunku Polski - niektórzy to widzą ....... ale nic nie robią..... bo interesy polityczno - ekonomiczne USA i Izraela są stopione ze sobą ale czy USA zawsze na tym wygrywa?

I think these vectors will remain unchanged in terms of direction, the biggest unknown to me is the political landscape which can alter the pace of these processes. Because entire spectrum in Europe has shifted to the right, the only real threat to unity across NATO remains the far right. And there you go, we’re back at square one - the Enemy are the Nazis, again, but this time their role model is RU

Poland should’ve spent half of what they did, then spent the other half on creating their own military industrial complex, and start arming the rest of Europe.

I am Pole, we we have not forgotten also on 1919, when Red Army attacked and we have to stop them.

Please STOP SPREADING THESE FAKES. What Poland has is millions of Ukrainians and host of other migrants (including Russians and Belarussians for some reason) flooding in, budget deficit > 300 mld PLN ( with budget income around 800 mld ), entire GDP is on level of US defence budget or Bayern (~800 bln USD) TOTAL lack of basic industry (steel, chemistry), can't even produce ammunition, tanks on the thumbnail are PT-91s - modernized 40 year old T-72Ms, most of which were donated to Ukraine anyway. Poland is in demographic decline, with services on verge of collapse. Most of the contracts, except American ones, are being already dialed down. K2 has been victim of internal struggle within PGZ ( state owned arms 'consortium' ). Training limits are ridiculously low, i.e. lower than for current Russian or Ukrainian conscripts. Morale is abbysmal, one scandal followes another. Overall force structure is not that one of military power (Korea, Israel) but of a speedbump, meat grinder - non-existant navy focused on mine hunting, token airforce and (eventaully) bloated, modestly trained land forces being structured for border battle. One of the 'divisions' - when reports of abbysmal P.T. tests were leaked - showed it has 5,5k soldiers in it. DIVISION. Meanwhile, arms ownership is being curtailed ( no knives, no black gunpowder guns are being already postulated !). Poland will be semi-bankrupt, Ukrainian owned thrid world country, that will be handed back to Russian sphere of influence by Europe at first opportunity. *Most importantly: many of these 'pruchases' are REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION or framework argeements*.

Attack helicopters might perform better in a tank destroyer role, being able rapidly to respond to where enemy mass attacks of armor attempt to break through lines, than the strike role it seems like Russia attempted in Ukraine.

Also,we are defending from east,but gut feel tell me,we need to defends against germany,history likes turn circles

Well there is small miss info,we dont but leopards,bcos rheinmetal dont produce them...

Corrections: 116 Abrams are M1A1 FEP, they do not have option for APS Trophy until modernization to M1A2 Sep v3 250 Abrams M1A2 Sep v3 will come w/o APS, but the plan is to procure separately 180 K2 tanks do not have APS, the plan is to install after modernization to K2PL standard Frame agreement is for 1000 K2 tanks, where 820 supposed to be K2PL. Next deal for 2nd batch of 180 K2PL is expected to be signed soon. It is not clear if they will have APS from the start. Poland to start participate in production. Poland is not buying more Leopard 2 tanks, only modernizing remaining 2A4 to 2PL standard. 1400 Borsuk IFV and support vehicles - this is only a frame agreement at this point. Borsuk is still going through trials with a modified drive system. 700 CWBP (heavy IFV) - this is a vision at this point. No design exist. Apache - the fact that Russian do not use attack helicopters correctly (directly over-flying enemy force), does not mean that AH-64 will be useless. Even Russian used them well during Zaporizhzhia offensive. Frame agreement for K9 is higher - 672. 1st batch on order - 212, 2nd batch on order - 146. 500 Himars is just a frame agreement. No order was placed. Most likely to be cut to 50% or 25%.

Insightful as usual; thanks for your content.

Canada is not a functional state at this point. On a domestic level, they are incapable of sustaining a war effort. Their millions of immigrants, that weren’t even loyal to their actual nations, are unwilling to make the sacrifices that trve war demands of civilian populations.

European arms purchases Poland 2023/24. Last year Poland bought Italian helicopters, French satellites and latest French pontoon bridges, British Helicopters, huge order MBDA CAMM and CAMM ER air defence batteries in total 60 batteries, 3 Babcock frigates, 2 Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C planes, Norway's Kongsberg 4 squadrons of the Naval Strike Missile (NSM) Coastal Defence System. 2024 Huge order of Swedish Carl Gustaf. It’s not only USA & South Korean weapons.

Not a military member myself but as someone who has followed the Ukraine war closely since day one i can tell you that your observation about attack helicopters being useless on the modern battlefield is wrong for a number of reasons. Western attack helicopters have the ability to employ stand off weapons which keeps the actual aircraft outside the range of enemy SHOR-A-D. It wasn't talked about in the media space but one of the reasons Ukraine's 2023 southern offensive failed was because Russia was able to use it's Ka-52 helicopters with stand off weapons to attack advancing Ukrainian armor. Ukraine is limited by the fact that they have less advanced, and less numerous aircraft to use, that's why the majority of Ukrainian copters perform low level pitch up rocket attacks. As an example of how Russia cannot effectively employ combined arms tactics. during the Kursk incursion a Russian Ka-52 actually shot up a Russian military convoy. The coordination between Russian ground and air units is poor to almost none existent. besides, the kind of static warfare we're seeing in Ukraine is not the kind of fight a NATO army would ever fight, NATO would never play Russia's little game of Attritional warfare.

I would like to see an analysis of the Polish capability in supporting systems. What do they use to target their artillery and missiles? What systems are they buying to keep their tanks viable in the face of both ISR drones and killer drones? Without those systems, the items they are purchasing are not going to perform well.

Is it perhaps a bit shortsighted the current efforts to revive european defense industries? With poland now wanting to expand its defense industry you have most major defense powers in Europe pursuing their own industrial policies. This seems like could be very inefficient in the long run as France, Germany, Poland and whoever else end up developing their own equipment, industry and expertise but none alone can substitute the might of the US if that ever needed. Integrating all the different European defense industries and coordinating policies meant to help revive it and expand it seems like would be the most efficient as expertise could be shared, costs cut and redundancies avoided. But for the moment it seems like everyone is just doing their own policies with no much thinking of actually coordinating. If for example, Poland, France and Germany end all developing their own next generation tank by themselves it would seem to be the most inefficient outcome. You miss on the economies of scale of joint procurement, the benefits of technology sharing and create more logistical issues if they were to ever operate together.

I'm Polish, and I do have intrest in military modernisation process (as a civilian hobbyst), there are few things I can clarify . - Poland is not buying Leopard tanks - at least that was not the plan for many yeras now. The Leopards you mention are used tanks of 2a4 and 2a5 type, some are being modernised to 2PL version. However both political situation, and unwillingness of germans to transfer manufacturing/technology seems to convince polish leadership that germans are not to be relied on, Leos will remain probably till they will be phased out by K2. that is why first 250 abrams M1A2 sep v 3 were wanted (request went to USA before 2022 fullscale russian invasion on Ukraine. ) than additional 116 M1A1 FEP were ordered , But main direction was to be K2 - as Koreans were seemingly most flexible on tech-transfer and production licence, the first general talks were about transfer of production and over all around 1000 K2 tanks ( including some produced in Korea) 180 were ordered from Korea - another 180 somewhat adapted to polish requierments were to be ordered till the end of this year, some of them will be assembled in Poland (at least that is what is the rumor in mili-bloger spheres , no details tho) and next batches would be produced in Poland. Now if US will offer good or better terms on M1 production it might go a bit differently. The goal seems to be to reach around 1300-1400 modern MBT (not counting Leos) for 6 divisions (2 armoured, rest mechanised) - attack hellicopters - some commentators in Poland are worried that 96 Apaches is a bit much (costs of upkeep , etc) but the order was made so 96 it will be , probably 16 per division. As for their use - the rumor is that russian attack helis did a lot of work in stopping the attempt to cut Crimean corridor in June 2023- fireing ATGMs at Ukrainians forming up for mechanized attack - missiles 10 km+ outside of MANPADS range, so still good for quick anti armor hunting from behind your own lines, at night, I guess. - Artylery in Poland - K9 and KRAB share chassis (with some modifications in Polish one as it is licence build in Poland) , Turrets are different , gun similar 155mm L52 , both will have polish TOPAZ firecontrol system (K9 are fitted with it in Poland) - Himmars - the request was for 500 or so, but since almost 300 korean K239 have been ordered I doubt full 500 will be ordered -IFV - Borsuk plans are for around 1400 vehicles (400 in diffrent variants than IFV) - First production batch will be ordered within a copule of months - Heavy IFV - planned - does not exist yet. probably will have same unmanned turret as Borsuk in IFV version Soviet era equipment. Poland decided to get rid of soviet era and ammo standard , hence a lot of new orders. Polish president said officially some time ago that Poland transfered more than 1000 picies of heavy equipment ( tanks, bmps, soviet calliber artylery systems, some soviet MLRS systems etc) including close to 400 tanks. There are still around 150-200 PT-91 (polish modernisation of T-72) so M1 Abrams and first K2 batch are replacement for them.

Excellent video thank you. My Great Grandfather fought in the Italian Army in World War 1 and I've been very interested in their military because of this. The Italians are realists and they know what they can and can't do and they make decisions off that knowledge. They keep it simple.

Some of these numbers really are crazy, particularly when it comes to long-range fires, for example, the UK is doubling its MLRS fleet to about 85 vehicles, however even these numbers are dwarfed. It does make you wonder how they can afford to spend such a large amount.

Buying from the Koreans means technological transfers and sharing of full technical specifications, allowing Poland to manufacture domestically and letting Korea enter the European arms market.

Excellent analysis. One thing Putin has achieved is a unity of purpose in NATO with an increase in spending. Poland has led the way in warning about and recognising resurgent Russian aggression.

Those countries that "enjoyed" the hospitality of Putin's employees NKVD/KGB and tbeir affiliates in the baltic states and Poland knew exactly what a country without a credible military meant....it's not losing a few islands in the south Atlantic. Its actually knock on the door at night and people disappeared.

Poland under current pro German government has no ambitiins to be any european leader at all.

It is others who present Russia as a threat to you, and others do business with this country by buying gas and oil (cheaper than gas from the USA or Qatar). They are expanding their existing nuclear power plants to produce more electricity. Such a country is small Hungary and Orban's policy, who is able to oscillate between the West and the East, doing business for his country, doing what is best for them and not looking at others. Because when the war in Ukraine ends, even Germany will return to doing business with Russia. The US proxy war with Russia at the hands of the Ukrainians is good for the US arms industry and beyond. But constantly scaring its allies with Russia is also in the US's interest. It is the USA that has weakened Europe (European Union/NATO countries) with its actions in connection with this proxy war and it is they who will benefit from the sale of weapons and military equipment to these European countries, including Poland. Understand that this is the US's interest, and they will earn money, people will have jobs there, build military equipment, weapons to destroy tanks. Well, in short, business is booming.

10:50 The funny thing that makes me wonder whether we are doing overkill in the context of Himars purchases is that the quantity we buy after the entire order is done is not only higher than western countries such as Germany, France, UK combine, but it is twice as much as the US currently has XD. You know, it doesn't seem realistic to me. After all, we are not the only buyers and the US will also buy for itself. I have doubts about how many years we will wait for all these Himars to be delivered.

I admire Poland and her history,but I dont like her being the "meat in the sandwich"

Thanks for Your analysis. It is perhaps too optymistic in regards to Warsaw weight in Europe. On the other hand it is important to emphasize Poland holds the only land route to support defense of Baltic states and nearly so in case of Ukraine.

A lot of people seem to focus on this idea of Poland becoming this hugely powerful military state, but there are important gaps to note in Poland’s forces, particularly in drones & EW systems. Although Poland currently has tons of self propelled guns & MLRS for infantry fire support, they lack ISR drones in quantity to find targets and do fire correction. Even though Poland has domestically sourced UAVs like FlyEye, they have only small inventories. As Ukraine has shown, UAVs are vital for effective artillery use, but they are also easily attrition and are needed in very high numbers, with constant resupply. On a similar note, Poland lacks any use of those explosive FPV style drones used in Ukraine- long range loiter munitions that can be used and carried by 1-2 soldiers. These are really game changers for the ground pounder, and will be needed both for modernizing the arsenal and training against Russia’s new tactics. Further, Poland’s EW and C-UAS capabilities seem to be very mediocre. The Polish domestic system Przebiśnieg has been criticized for its inefficacy and low numbers, and it’s also based on Soviet vintage MT-LB APCs instead of the more modern APCs Poland is adopting. The Poles have limited options for effective C-UAS other than EW. Although they have a lot of short range missiles, these will probably be too expensive for use against UAVs. Their 23mm ZU-23 anti-aircraft guns, while numerous and equipped with fairly modern targeting systems, lack newer programmable air burst ammo developed for use against drones for guns like the 35mm GDF or 40mm Bofors L/70. So although Poland is getting quite a massive boost to its military, they might still have to play catch-up in many areas of modern warfare.

Nave Cavour or CVH550 cost to us 1.3 billions (Euro) on an initial budget of 1.5. Plus other 1.7 billions for the renewals (2021) and the purchasing of 15 F-35B, which are entirly assembled and mantained at Cameri, also in Italy.

And without using depleted uranium!!!!!! War criminals

Can you do a video on why the Obama administration reset of Russian relations failed? If you were working with the CIA at that time, I am curious for your insight.

Since you have interesting takes on these kinds of issues, how about taking the opposite view (the Russian perspective on this matter) of increased militarization as provocation. We shouldn't always view the Russians being up to no good - they have a long history of invasion and lost 15 million people in WWII - in comparison, in WWII the US lost 500,000, the British 250,000 and the Germans 4,000,000. Of course the USSR (the Soviets) were not innocent players in WWII (by any stretch) but that's how they see it - a moral equivalence if you would. Georgia armed itself, Russia took it as provocation and Georgia was invaded. The other thing is that Russians, like the Chinese, play the long game, they'll grind out a win if necessary and the win is all that matters (and they're right, and they now have victory in their sights in Ukraine) - they don't see it the way we do in the West. I say this because too often analysts fail to get into the heads of the Russian hierarchy and if you've played chess competitively you know anticipating the next move is key.

The Polish modernization effort, aimed at forming a military with modern conventional warfar capabilities, began in 2010, with particular rearview focus on the Russian assault on Georgia. Polish politicians already spoke of the military threat posed by Russia, famously Radislaw Sikorski in 2013 spoke "war in Europe is imaginable", in response to an EU counterpart. While its true the modernization effort was extremely modest, it was done in light of Polands strategic position, as a member of NATO and the EU. In 2016 the startegy changed, and greater emphasis on having own capabilities was placed. However its only in 2022 that real economic weight is thrown behind these efforts.

I think you underestimate the role of the EU in this. Ursula von der Leyen and her administration have been amongst the staunchest supporters of Ukraine. They could be pivotal in filling any leadership vacuum left by Trump/US. One of the main reasons for Poland's investment in equipment and varied equipment is that in a war situation allied troops would be expected to arrive quicker than their equipment. Having excess hardware on hand is a big difference. And having a variety means it's more likely to be familiar to those allied troops.

Would be better to decouple from US foreign policy and avoid their endless antagonism of other countries?

This guy is a total boob

Per @sgebert, my numbers are wrong. If I'm wrong, i'm wrong, and I appreciate being corrected. He writes: According to the official data, the numbers you provided are wrong. The official data: land forces (54,000), air force (17,200), navy (7000), special forces (3200) and territorial defence (36,000). Additionaly there are about 2200 soldiers in service for the cyberwarfare forces and about 3300 in the military police. Also the finance numbers are wrong, as Poland spent (2024) 159 billion zloty (40 bln usd) on military, and will spend 187 bln zloty next year (2025) which equals 47 bln dollars.

You dont like free speech you hack

For Poland it would not make sense to play defensive if russia attacks. As demonstrated in Ukraine, russia will try to destory everything they can and colonise every village they can. Playing defence would also risk having the Baltic States cut off, hence losing connection to hundred thousand Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and NATO troops and threatening northeastern Poland. Additionally by bringing the ground war into russia and it’s puppet theirselves, russia will have to face the results of having their own land occupied and their power weakened. Hence threatening russia with the capability to actually go into russia (and not just the border districts) will deter putin and his successors from going to work. Poland understands this and hence why the former chief of general staff of the Polish military said that if a Baltic State or Poland was attacked, all strategic targets within 300 kilometers of the borders (including St Petersburg) would be destroyed.

150+ Abraams, 250+ K2s, 260+ Leopard 2... three very different MBTs, i.e. the certain logistical nightmare even in peace times. and so on.

Trump isn’t going to leave NATO. He strengthened it. And would do so again. He pushed to make members pay their treaty bound share.

You left out the Mangusta. Probably the best attack helicopter in Europe, rivals the Apache.

Africa haz da mose Africans per capita compare to anywheres else own earth. An why don't day ship hotness to da coal plases like Arcantica? Duhhh. 🤔$$$$.!!! U people r so damb dumn.

Oops, Fooled by Haley. That's kinda naïf.

I knew he'd reveal his Trump Derangement Syndrome sooner or later.

Can October 7th 2023 be understood without understanding every day since 19-23 November 1926?

I was considering military service for Canada (as resident). Seeing current line of Ottawa I've given up, Canada doesn't seem to be serious about defence.