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My Financial Focus
United States
เข้าร่วมเมื่อ 12 ก.ค. 2021
I talk about stocks and I analyze companies.
Valero vs. Occidental Petroleum: Which Stock is the Better Buy? | Q1-Q3 2024 Earnings Breakdown
In this video, I provide an in-depth analysis of Valero Energy, one of the top players in the energy sector. While the stock market has seen a 20% increase year-to-date, Valero has only risen by 1%. Is this an opportunity, or a sign to be cautious?
I break down Valero's performance, taking a close look at their Q1, Q2, and Q3 FY24 earnings reports. Using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model in Microsoft Excel, I explore the company's intrinsic value by analyzing key financial ratios and growth metrics.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this analysis will help you better understand Valero's position in the market and its potential for the future. Don't forget to subscribe for more stock market insights and analysis!
Valero Q1, Q2, and Q3 2024 Earnings Results - April 25th, July 25th, Oct 24th
Overview
Valero is currently trading at around $130 per share and analysts are giving it a price target of around $159 to $165 per share suggesting a potential upside of around 20% from its current price.
More recently, Valero’s revenue and earnings have declined in 2024 compared to the previous year due to lower demand for gasoline and jet fuel compared to the post pandemic recovery period of 2022 and early 2023, which has impacted their ability to generate revenue. Valero is also valued attractively at a price to earnings ratio of about 7 times earnings indicating that it could be undervalued relative to its earnings potential.
Warren Buffett has invested heavily into one of Valero’s competitors, Occidental Petroleum, but Valero appears to have an edge over OXY in 2024 due to a few factors. Valero has a stronger return on equity of 35% compared to Occidental’s 20%, indicating that Valero is generating more profit relative to its shareholders equity making it more efficient in terms of generating returns of investors.
Valero also has a higher and more stable dividend yield around 3.14% compared to Occidental’s 1.21%, which could be attractive for income-focused investors.
Both companies operate in the energy sector, which is vulnerable to short term price fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical events. Rising interest rates and inflation could impact Valero’s operational costs. Inflation can drive up costs of raw materials and labor, potentially eating into profit margins if Valero is unable to pass these costs off to customers.
That being said, Valero’s robust cash flow and strong cash position allow it to navigate periods of higher inflation better than its more leveraged competitors.
Financial Results
s23.q4cdn.com/587626645/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/b4bb1363-d7d8-42b8-8508-a19af80d652f.pdf
s23.q4cdn.com/587626645/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/90cd3cda-5952-4276-b4e0-035e6e7eece4.pdf
s23.q4cdn.com/587626645/files/doc_earnings/2024/q3/earnings-result/VLO-3Q24-Earnings-Release.pdf
Q1
Revenue of $32 billion down 13% from $36 billion year over year
Net income of $1.2 billion down 60% from $3 billion
Q2
Revenue of $34 billion same as $34 billion year over year
Net income of $880 million down 55% from $2 billion year over year
Q3
Revenue of $33 billion down 14% from $38 billion year over year
Net income of $360 million down 86% from $2.6 billion year over year
I break down Valero's performance, taking a close look at their Q1, Q2, and Q3 FY24 earnings reports. Using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model in Microsoft Excel, I explore the company's intrinsic value by analyzing key financial ratios and growth metrics.
Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this analysis will help you better understand Valero's position in the market and its potential for the future. Don't forget to subscribe for more stock market insights and analysis!
Valero Q1, Q2, and Q3 2024 Earnings Results - April 25th, July 25th, Oct 24th
Overview
Valero is currently trading at around $130 per share and analysts are giving it a price target of around $159 to $165 per share suggesting a potential upside of around 20% from its current price.
More recently, Valero’s revenue and earnings have declined in 2024 compared to the previous year due to lower demand for gasoline and jet fuel compared to the post pandemic recovery period of 2022 and early 2023, which has impacted their ability to generate revenue. Valero is also valued attractively at a price to earnings ratio of about 7 times earnings indicating that it could be undervalued relative to its earnings potential.
Warren Buffett has invested heavily into one of Valero’s competitors, Occidental Petroleum, but Valero appears to have an edge over OXY in 2024 due to a few factors. Valero has a stronger return on equity of 35% compared to Occidental’s 20%, indicating that Valero is generating more profit relative to its shareholders equity making it more efficient in terms of generating returns of investors.
Valero also has a higher and more stable dividend yield around 3.14% compared to Occidental’s 1.21%, which could be attractive for income-focused investors.
Both companies operate in the energy sector, which is vulnerable to short term price fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical events. Rising interest rates and inflation could impact Valero’s operational costs. Inflation can drive up costs of raw materials and labor, potentially eating into profit margins if Valero is unable to pass these costs off to customers.
That being said, Valero’s robust cash flow and strong cash position allow it to navigate periods of higher inflation better than its more leveraged competitors.
Financial Results
s23.q4cdn.com/587626645/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/b4bb1363-d7d8-42b8-8508-a19af80d652f.pdf
s23.q4cdn.com/587626645/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/90cd3cda-5952-4276-b4e0-035e6e7eece4.pdf
s23.q4cdn.com/587626645/files/doc_earnings/2024/q3/earnings-result/VLO-3Q24-Earnings-Release.pdf
Q1
Revenue of $32 billion down 13% from $36 billion year over year
Net income of $1.2 billion down 60% from $3 billion
Q2
Revenue of $34 billion same as $34 billion year over year
Net income of $880 million down 55% from $2 billion year over year
Q3
Revenue of $33 billion down 14% from $38 billion year over year
Net income of $360 million down 86% from $2.6 billion year over year
มุมมอง: 294
วีดีโอ
Meta Earnings Up 117% | Q1 and Q2 2024
มุมมอง 923 หลายเดือนก่อน
In this video I did a stock market analysis of Meta, which is one of the best performing stocks in the stock market. Meta is up 70% year to date, while the stock market has increased 20%. I review the company's recently reported earnings results for the first and second quarter of FY24. I used a discounted cash flow model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic value of Meta...
Broadcom Stock Set To Explode? | Q2 and Q3 2024
มุมมอง 1623 หลายเดือนก่อน
In this video I did a stock market analysis of Broadcom, which is one of the best performing companies in the stock market. AVGO is up 56% year to date, while the stock market has increased 20%. This company recently reported earnings results for the third quarter of FY24. I used a discounted cash flow model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic value of Broadcom would be ...
Occidental Petroleum Hits 52 Week Low | Q1 and Q2 2024
มุมมอง 7K4 หลายเดือนก่อน
In this video I did a stock market analysis of Occidental Petroleum, which is Warren Buffett's biggest energy holding in the stock market. OXY is down 20% over the last 12 months, while the stock market has increased 20%. This company recently reported earnings results for the second quarter of FY24. I used a discounted cash flow model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic...
GE Stock Up 70% YTD | Q1 FY24 Earnings Results
มุมมอง 1215 หลายเดือนก่อน
In this video I did a stock market analysis of GE, which is one of the best performing companies in the stock market. GE is up 70% year to date, while the stock market has increased 20%. This company recently reported earnings results for the first quarter of FY24. I used a discounted cash flow model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic value of GE would be based on the f...
Epam Systems Plummets 30% | Q1 FY24 Earnings Results
มุมมอง 3256 หลายเดือนก่อน
In this video I did a stock market analysis of Epam Systems, which is one of the companies that was hardest hit by recent global events. Epam Systems is down 30% year to date, while the stock market has increased 20%. This company recently reported earnings results for the first quarter of FY24. I used a discounted cash flow model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic valu...
Eli Lilly KEEPS GETTING BIGGER | Q1 FY24 Earnings Results
มุมมอง 1396 หลายเดือนก่อน
In this video I did a stock market analysis of Eli Lilly, which is one of the fastest growing pharmaceutical companies in the US. Eli Lilly is up 100% over the last year, while the stock market has increased 30%. This company recently reported earnings results for the first quarter of FY24. I used a discounted cash flow model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic value of ...
Kura Sushi PLUMMITS 25% | Q1 and Q2 FY24 Earnings Results
มุมมอง 5936 หลายเดือนก่อน
In this video I did a stock market analysis of Kura Sushi, which is one of the fastest growing sushi companies in the US. Kura Sushi is down 30% over the last year, while the stock market has increased 30%. This company recently reported earnings results for the first and second quarter of FY24. I used a relative valuation model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic value ...
Nvidia Earnings Up 628% | Q1 2024 Earnings Results
มุมมอง 1327 หลายเดือนก่อน
Hi! In this video I did a stock market analysis of Nvidia, which is one of the largest tech companies in the US. Nvidia is up 200% over the last year, while the stock market has increased 30%. This company recently reported earnings results for the first quarter of 2024. I used a discounted cash flow valuation model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic value of Nvidia wou...
Google Cloud Operating Profit Up 373% | Q1 2024
มุมมอง 1817 หลายเดือนก่อน
Hi! In this video I did a stock market analysis of Google , which is one of the largest tech companies in the US. Google is up 40% over the last year, while the stock market has increased 30%. This company recently reported earnings results for the first quarter of 2024. I used a discounted cash flow valuation model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic value of Google wou...
Super Micro Computer Earnings Up 300% (Beating Nvidia) | Q3 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 1748 หลายเดือนก่อน
Hi! In this video I did a stock market analysis of Super Micro Computer, which is one of the fastest growing tech companies in the US. SMCI is up 600% over the last year, while the stock market has increased 20%. This company recently reported earnings results for the first quarter of 2024. I used a discounted cash flow valuation model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure out what the intrinsic...
IS TESLA REPLACING UBER? | Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 908 หลายเดือนก่อน
Hi! In this video I did a stock market analysis of Tesla and Uber, which are two of the most popular tech companies in the US. Uber is up 100% over the last year, but Tesla is down 6% while the stock market has increased 3%. These companies are competing in the tech and ride sharing industry, and they have recently reported earnings results for the full year of 2023. I used a discounted cash fl...
GOOGLE CLOUD IS NOW PROFITABLE | Q4 2023 Earnings
มุมมอง 1999 หลายเดือนก่อน
Hi! In this video I did an intrinsic value analysis for Google, which is one of the biggest tech companies in the US. Google is up 11% year to date while the stock market has increased 3%. This company is competing in the tech industry, and they have recently reported earnings results for the full year of 2023. I used a discounted cash flow valuation model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure o...
Valero Beats The Competition | Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 3449 หลายเดือนก่อน
Hi! In this video I did an intrinsic value analysis for Valero, which is one of the biggest oil companies in the US. Valero is up 30% year to date while the stock market has increased 6%. This company is competing in the energy industry, and they have recently reported earnings results for the full year of 2023. I used a discounted cash flow valuation model in Microsoft Excel to try and figure ...
Easy Discounted Cash Flow | Step By Step | Microsoft Excel
มุมมอง 1359 หลายเดือนก่อน
In this video, I provide a step by step guide on how to build a simple discounted cash flow model in Microsoft Excel. The steps below are explained in further detail in the video: Step 1 Project the cash flows the company is expected to generate in the future. This projection is often done for a period of 5-10 years. Growth Rate = ((Ending Cash Flow / Beginning Cash Flow) ^ 1 / Time) - 1 Step 2...
Is Broadcom the Next Nvidia Stock? | Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 3069 หลายเดือนก่อน
Is Broadcom the Next Nvidia Stock? | Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 Earnings Analysis
Nvidia Stock Up 80% in 3 Months | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
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Nvidia Stock Up 80% in 3 Months | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
Sushi Stock Outperforms Big Tech | Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 1469 หลายเดือนก่อน
Sushi Stock Outperforms Big Tech | Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
OXY Trading 90% Below Intrinsic Value? | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 7K10 หลายเดือนก่อน
OXY Trading 90% Below Intrinsic Value? | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
ConocoPhillips Best Oil Profit Margins? | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 18410 หลายเดือนก่อน
ConocoPhillips Best Oil Profit Margins? | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
Eli Lilly Stock Exploding | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 9810 หลายเดือนก่อน
Eli Lilly Stock Exploding | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
Epam Systems Big Recovery Incoming? | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 44210 หลายเดือนก่อน
Epam Systems Big Recovery Incoming? | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
AMD Q4 Earnings Up 3000% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 9810 หลายเดือนก่อน
AMD Q4 Earnings Up 3000% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
McDonalds Earnings Up 37% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 6011 หลายเดือนก่อน
McDonalds Earnings Up 37% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
Chevron Earnings Down 65% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 8211 หลายเดือนก่อน
Chevron Earnings Down 65% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
ExxonMobil Earnings Down 55% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 18011 หลายเดือนก่อน
ExxonMobil Earnings Down 55% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
Chipotle Earnings Up 37% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 6011 หลายเดือนก่อน
Chipotle Earnings Up 37% | Q3 and Q4 2023 Earnings Analysis
Amazon Q4 Earnings Up 3000% | Tech Industry | Q3 and Q4 FY2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 13211 หลายเดือนก่อน
Amazon Q4 Earnings Up 3000% | Tech Industry | Q3 and Q4 FY2023 Earnings Analysis
Meta Earnings Up 200% | Tech Industry | Q3 and Q4 FY2023 Earnings Analysis
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Meta Earnings Up 200% | Tech Industry | Q3 and Q4 FY2023 Earnings Analysis
GE Earnings Up 193% | Aerospace Industry | Q3 FY2023 Earnings Analysis
มุมมอง 26111 หลายเดือนก่อน
GE Earnings Up 193% | Aerospace Industry | Q3 FY2023 Earnings Analysis
I've got £100k to invest. I want to build a nest egg for when I'm older. I want to know if it's a good idea to add all my savings into a long term ETF, set and forget Come back in 20-30 years, instead of 250-300 DCA every month. Which ETF or investment would you recommend?
How do I reach out to a financial advisor, my portfolio has been struggling since 2022 and I’ve been holding on by the skin of my teeth.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her site up and filled the form. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Good info.buffet betting on war and who gets in office after trump.imo
@@CalNaughtonjr33 ok
Growth rate projections are unrealistic - IV per share of 450+ means OXY should be valued at ~500B.
Id say in 10 years this one will be a banger 👍
I been thinking about this a lot thank you man
Oct ‘24…. You two are making people smile. Thank you
Great work, thank you!
Luettgen Gardens
Good vid. I do have some knowledge of options. It was good to follow along. I understand.
It's a longer term play. They are paying down debt and buying back shares. Revenues are a little out of their control being a commodity business. It seems well run and it is never a bad thing to have Buffett's stamp of approval.
Agreed
U might want to consider TTM growth. 43% is nit sustainable. Analysts' projections might help.
True
I do not think so. On Sep 03, it fell through its support of $55 which held up on Jul 14 22, Mar 15 23, MaY 10 23, Jun 26 23, Dec 12 23, Jan 18 24, Feb 5 24, Aug 5 24, Aug 21 24.
I loved this. I studied accounting in college many years ago when they only covered three statements: Income, Balance, and Cash Flow Statements. I'm studying accounting again and have just been introduced to Statement of Stockholder's Equity and Other Comprehensive Income Statements. These are new to me.
Great video! Kura Sushi is the best performing stock in my food and restaurant stocks portfolio! Thanks for sharing!
Same for me
@@MyFinancialFocus Great to hear! What other food and restaurant stocks do you hold?
@@TheFoodFund Just Kura
This is one of those stocks that will do nothing for months then fast forward 3 years later is up over 100%.
Yea lol
Hey, enjoyed the video🙌! I'm not really sure if it is the best time to ask but, I was wondering if I could help you create a better distribution by working on post-production like better storytelling through Edits, Keywords, think catchy intros and outros, or even some engaging short clips! Would love to chat if you're interested and keep creating good content:)
Thx for the update I was looking foward to it but it is already 20% up alone this month I think it’s still undervalued
Thanks a lot for your videos. I work as an intern in a Bulge Bracket bank in Brazil and I’ve been learning a lot from your videos. Please do keep it up
Can i ask why you compared to mcdonalds and chipotle? As opposed to other sit down restaurants or other sushi chains if there are others that are publicly traded?
I’m not sure of any other sushi chains that are publicly traded.
@@MyFinancialFocus i don’t think there are any but i just feel like a QSR or Fast food are a stretch for looking at comparative companies. Maybe im wrong
great analysis,go ahead!~
Great content very insightful 🏆📈🏆
anus
It's not 2025 yet
Nvidia’s fiscal year 2025.
I love kura! They’re always busy, efficient, nice operating margins for a restaurant. No free cash flow yet cause they’re reinvesting but that doesn’t scare me away. They’ll do well I think and if the reach 300 restaurants that’ll be a nice return on investment from here
Agreed
@@MyFinancialFocus do you happen to know when they intend to reach 300?
@@chillguy2758 Not sure.
I thought their sales per restaurant was about 3.5 million not 1
@@chillguy2758 I just go off of what they say in their earnings reports.
Best channel ever! From London, Vince
Thanks!
Hmm so much for big recovery.
Lol could just be taking more time we’ll see. Financial statements matter the most.
@@MyFinancialFocus Today was rough.
@@Aevykin Lol I just noticed.
No. Tesla will not replace Uber or taxis. Uber & taxi's will use Tesla's, maybe not a taxi, dont know i they can afford to be off the road to charge for that long. No one will rent out tesla's either, the car will be trashed in 24hrs just from passenger wear and tear.
Certainly a possibility, but I’m excited to see what happens at the Tesla event in august.
Marathon would be a more similar competitor than Exxon since Exxon has oil exploration while the other two are refiners and buy crude in the open market. The refineries are making more from the crack spreads of fuel.
Good point
Good analysis video! I cover Kura Sushi on my restaurant stocks TH-cam Channel and agree it shows promise! Thanks for sharing!
Is Valero the best oil stock to invest in?
Does it really make sense to use a DCF for an upstream company as opposed to a NAV model?
Next time I value oil companies I’ll use both
Let me know if you have any questions
Do you think Broadcom has potential to grow as much as Nvidia over the next few years?
I believe this is only the beginning of something huge. DCF or not the potential growth is massive so I’d expect another 50% upside over the next 12 months before any meaningful correction. The hype and momentum is strong still so I wouldn’t fight it if your long. Short this stock at your peril. Wondering if you’ve done a DCF on Tesla would like to know what your fair value might be. Thanks for the content 👏🏽
Yes, I made a video about Tesla a few videos ago.
I bet those VPs wish the didn't sell...
I only have only 10 shares but I'll buy more when possible.
Do you think it’ll keep going up?
@MyFinancialFocus no, he will buy more because he thinks it will go down
@@mikereisert2803 Lol not really what I was getting at but okay
Hi, can you please explain where the 43% growth rate for Years 1-5 comes from.
I just calculated the estimated compounded annual growth rate of oxy’s free cash flow from 2019 to 2023. It was 43%.
This stock just keeps rising. Time to buy or sell?
Awesome content. Cheers from Brazil
Thanks for the informative video on this low key company 🍣 🍱 🙌. Nice work!
Kura Sushi is not a well known stock. The company's revenue and earnings have been growing rapidly and the stock price has been exploding. Does this company have more room to grow?
40% for the last 5 years is a very different story to 40% for the next 5 years. Your analysis says it will 10X it's FCF in 10 years. That's monster, and I'd say very unlikely.
I agree. I think I mentioned in the video that it was unlikely.
Nice analysis, you have my sub.
Great video, exactly what I was looking for, thanks!
Very nice video !!! I believe that it still can grow before a downturn (like a recession). But if I would buy the stocks I would probably wait that it get cheaper. Cause the stock market is still bullish. Could you make a video of your investment track record since your beginning in the stock market ?
Maybe I will
Even though OXY earnings are down year over year, is this stock a buy right now?
I agree, I think they're way overvalued.
Good analysis/breakdown! 👍
Thanks
What model did you use to calculate IV? OXY Intrinsic value 725? some are on the spot like BABA at 210 ...
I used a discounted cash flow model and OXY’s free cash flow growth over the last 5 years has been really strong, which is why it’s intrinsic value comes out so high.
This stock is up 150% over the last year. Do you think it will continue to increase at the current rate?