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Bradley Woodrum
เข้าร่วมเมื่อ 12 ม.ค. 2007
Baseball, economics, and world travel -- these are but a sampling of the THINGS Bradley Woodrum both invented and perfected!
The Most Absurd No Hitter
Edwin Jackson threw a very unlikely, unusual No Hitter on June 25, 2010. Not only was it unexpected given his career up to that point, but it was also a No Hitter that had more in common with 1980s baseball than 2010s and certainly modern baseball. In this video, I dig into why it was so weird - and why it will never happen again.
Baseball Quotes’ career retrospective on Edwin Jackson: th-cam.com/video/cB9QZI4i_l4/w-d-xo.html
It took forever to find out why Carl Crawford wasn’t in this game, so here’s the evidence he had a shoulder injury: www.draysbay.com/2010/6/24/1535359/rays-power-themselves-to-victory
Wilytics on the Detroit rotation: th-cam.com/video/QGAwopuij6g/w-d-xo.html
And check out my video on Stolen Bases! th-cam.com/video/z_qN_Owaji0/w-d-xo.html
I get alllll the credit, allll the blame, and alllll the shame for the music and art.
Baseball Quotes’ career retrospective on Edwin Jackson: th-cam.com/video/cB9QZI4i_l4/w-d-xo.html
It took forever to find out why Carl Crawford wasn’t in this game, so here’s the evidence he had a shoulder injury: www.draysbay.com/2010/6/24/1535359/rays-power-themselves-to-victory
Wilytics on the Detroit rotation: th-cam.com/video/QGAwopuij6g/w-d-xo.html
And check out my video on Stolen Bases! th-cam.com/video/z_qN_Owaji0/w-d-xo.html
I get alllll the credit, allll the blame, and alllll the shame for the music and art.
มุมมอง: 3 422
วีดีโอ
Stolen Bases are Going Crazy
มุมมอง 2.5K14 วันที่ผ่านมา
Stolen bases are way up in Major League Baseball this season, and there is a growing body of evidence to suggest MLB teams should try to steal EVEN MORE! After Ronald Acuna Jr.’s incredible 40-70 season in 2023, and not Shohei Ohtani’s 50-50 season, it is becoming increasingly clear pitchers and catchers are on the back foot when trying to catch baserunners. Moreover, the math suggests teams co...
Hitter BABIP: Yet More Dragons and Such
มุมมอง 9K11 ปีที่แล้ว
The Batting Average on Balls in Play, or BABIP, statistic can be very useful in gauging whether a hitter has had good or bad luck in a particular stretch of time. More than luck influences a players BABIP, however, so users must be careful when making judgements using BABIP. For more information on BABIP, visit: www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/babip/
Todd Helton's Goatee
มุมมอง 1.6K13 ปีที่แล้ว
This video was obtained from an anonymous source and sent to the investigative reporting team at NotGraphs (fangraphs.com/not).
The Process Report 2011
มุมมอง 98313 ปีที่แล้ว
The Process Report, a baseball annual focused around the Tampa Bay Rays, gives fans uncommon insight into the workings of one of baseball's most intelligent and analytical teams. Featuring articles and team previews written by widely read analysts such as R.J. Anderson, Tommy Rancel, Jason Collette, and Steve Slowinski, TPR11 blends a deep knowledge of the game with excellent writing. For more ...
BABIP: The Luck Dragons, Part 2
มุมมอง 14K13 ปีที่แล้ว
In addition to dealing with variations in LOB%, pitchers may also have bad luck in the form of BABIP variations. BABIP or batting average on balls in play tends to stay very near .300 for pitchers. When it strays much higher than .300, a pitcher is usually unlucky. Likewise, as a BABIP approaches .000, a pitcher is usually increasingly lucky. See the video explaining BABIP for hitters here: th-...
LOB%: A Tango Tiger Amendment
มุมมอง 10K13 ปีที่แล้ว
LOB% tends to characterize a pitcher's luck. To be more precise though, we should say deviations away from usual LOB% tend to be luck. In other words, if a pitcher has a season with a 77% strand rate (or LOB%), then he might be lucky. But if 77% is normal for his career, then his luck was relatively neutral. Conversely, a bad pitcher like Sidney could have an average LOB% some season, but actua...
LOB%: The Luck Dragons, Part 1
มุมมอง 12K13 ปีที่แล้ว
Baseball pitchers face two significant dragons of luck: LOB% and BABIP. Most relievers and nearly every starter has a left on base percentage (or LOB%) of around 72%. In other words, only about 38% of base runners ever score. So, when a pitcher has a season with a high LOB% (76-99%) they are usually lucky. If they have a low LOB% (0-68%) then they have been unlucky. For more information on LOB%...
FIP: A New ERA
มุมมอง 46K13 ปีที่แล้ว
In the study of baseball, it has become increasingly apparent the Earned Run Average (ERA) statistic does not effectively evaluate pitchers. As a result, many now turn to the FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching statistic, which neutralizes the good or bad fielding that can affect a pitcher's ERA. If you have any questions or concerns about these metrics, head over to Fangraphs.com or contact t...
Personally think dock Ellis no hitter on LSD is more absurd
Great video hasn’t started for me but I rember the tigers trading Jackson then him throwing that no hitter
Great video. You earned at least 1 subscriber from it!
"I don't know of any conclusive evidence-based reviews or studies that suggest pitch counts and pitch limits prevent pitcher injuries." I believe that former Major League pitcher Tom House (who is most famous for catching Hank Aaron's 715th home run in the Braves' bullpen) wrote a book that detailed his studies about the correlation between the overwork of pitchers and injury. House looked at innings pitched, not pitch counts. He established that a pitcher who pitches more than a certain number of innings in a season before age 25 is much more likely to have his career shortened by injuries. If I remember correctly, the only exception to that trend was Tom Seaver. House wrote a few books; I think this one was called "The Diamond Appraised", but I could be wrong.
The strangest no-hitter is one that (unjustly) no longer counts: the game pitched by the Yankees' Andy Hawkins against the White Sox in 1990. He lost the game 4-0.
“The most absurd no hitter” not me thinking the vid’s either about Dock Ellis or Jim Abbott… “Samsonsite… I was WAYY off”
Hey, dude, I remember you from DRB. Didn't realize you made videos. This was really good, and I hope you do more. Peace.
Really fantastic content dude. I love your videos and hope you keep making them
If Ohtani gets subbed after 2 times through the order, does he become ineligible to hit? If so he should learn to pitch with his left hand third time through the order 😂
Haha! I wouldn't put it past Ohtani to be able to throw left-handed, but he shouldn't need to! MLB instituted a rule specifically for Ohtani when they made the DH universal. Starting pitchers who are also the DH can remain in the game even after being replaced by a reliever.
Nobody has to risk unnecessary injury because they are well paid ... Pitching is demanding on arms !! Not like qb s because replacements are not a big dropoff !! show the outs rapidfire for a longer video !!
love your videos, Bradley!
Back when baseball was great, before the new commissioner did his best ruining the game with stupid rules and managers let their guy pitch. Seen people pulled from no hitters after less than 100 pitches. Injuries happen and if you throw alot of pitches one game, let them sit out the next start. They are getting millions of dollars a year. Go tell the fisherman to just quit because it's dangerous. Sick of today's pampered jocks.
i've watched almost every tigers game this year and I thought the season was over after we traded flaherty and olson got hurt and we basically had one starter for the rest of the season. I definitely miss the days of sending a different cy young caliber pitcher to the mound every day like in the early 2010s. But damn the past few months have been fun to watch. Sometimes using so many pitchers makes me a bit worried because it feels like there's a good chance one guy just doesn't have his best stuff on any given day. but I think it's a cool strategy. It worked beautifully today, they had a rhp open the game so cleveland stacked their lineup with left handed hitters and then they brought out left handed reliever in the second inning so cleveland burnt through most of their bench early in the game.
As a Guardians fan I wish it was over😂😂😂. Good luck today. If yall win we’re done.
Nice
I'm here because of the fish on first interview as a marlins fan really learn a lot had to sub to your channel all the best
Thank you so much!
I feel called out. This video was literally background noise while I worked and I stopped what I was doing to comment about why the video should have been longer.
Haha! We all do it!
27 minute video is not nearly too long my guy. If a longer video tells a better story go for it!
hell yeah bro i mess with your content. everyones done dock ellis and abbot but ive never seen a video on edwin jackons no hitter
Im guessing you never played baseball past little league. Just a guess and I saw this because, pitchers arent allowed to hold runners. There is a pitch clock, so at some point the runner knows you have to throw a pitch or pick off. Also Pitchers are limited to pick off attempts. Bases are larger. Pitchers since the late 90s never slide step. All of these factors go into the more stealing bases. MLB just gave base runners 5 free steps to the next bag. If Rickey Henderson Vince Coleman or Delino Deshields or Juan Pierre or Kenny Lofton or Ichiro had this head start none of the records would be touched. You are leaving out huge bits of information that allow a player to "steal" more often. Also most pitchers dont know how to pick off because they were never taught by their "pitcihing" coach at drive line. Only to max o ut on every pitch and hurt arms and shorten careers haha
149 pitches for a no hitter is a big nope from me
Why not?
Personally for me, after about 30 pitches I'd have hit ≈15 batters, so eventually I imagine I'd get arrested for assault.
Pitchers need to learn how to throw 150 pitches again. What good stamina
@@BradleyWoodrumhaha. This cracked me up! Facts.
it's too easy to steal bases now.
This is a fantastic video. Your mix of statistics, enthusiasm, and subtle humor reminds me a bit of Secret Base, and I mean that as a major compliment.
243 subscribers - wow, I had to do a double take because this is a very impressive video.
How about a stat like slugging percentage except stolen bases are added to the total bases part of the calculation?
Please don't make me wait 11 years for another video. This is so excellent
the new stolen base numbers need an asterisk. the pitchers can't hold the runners any more. they get one throw to first.
I love the Secret Base parity, 10/10
I'll be a hater and say this is why Shohei Ohtani shouldn't automatically win MVP just because he's the first player to 50-50. You have to weight the steals backwards to history
If he only has the 50-50, I'd agree with you. But he's leading NL in HR, RBI, R, TB, OBP, SLG, OPS, and WAR. Also 2nd in avg.
what the fuck did you expect with a 25% bigger base. no shit steals would go up. being surprised by this is dumb as hell
What abput non-organic likes?
If you grew up in the 80s, we're not even back to normal yet. 😂
But don't you want to "be profitable" and not just "break even"?
I think one way to consider it is this: Would you rather buy one widget at $10 and sell if for $20 (i.e. 100% profit), or buy 100 widgets at $10 and sell them all for $17 apiece (70% profit)? If you're only willing to take the risk if you can get 100% back, you can wind up with less overall returns ($100 vs $700). It may be a clumsy comparison, but I think it's similar to the logic here, where taking more chances may lead to lower success per chance, but can still lead to more dollars in the bank (or runs on the scoreboard). Once you reach a volume where you're approaching break-even, you know you should scale back a bit. But at least you know what volume you can stay "profitable" at. Teams that are sitting at 80% success rate are likely leaving a lot of extra runs in their pockets, because they aren't taking enough chances.
@@seraphsword I think that's mostly correct-ish but needs a deeper analysis... Not all situations are 65% success situations In poker, you dont draw for runner runner aces because its just not goign to happen. If you are simply "shooting" for 65% steal rate then there are situations where you are stealing with 90% chance of success and times you are stealing with 20% success rate And that is not to mention there are specific times when the spread btw getting caught and being successful will have a different run value. eg might be (and this is a total guess at a situation) first and third one out. Aaron Judge up and a bad runner is going to be a worse situation than Ohtani on first and Kiermeier up to bat, for example Also the expected run calcs should depend a lot on who is on deck and so forth, not simply being team wide For such an in depth analyis in the video and what sounds like someone on the inside, I would like to hear the answers to what seem to be fairly basic questions above... ...OR hear that those answers are proprietary
Gee maybe making the bases bigger and the pick off rule change leads to more stolen bases
At 3:39 having the first chart start at 0 and then second one being 70-80% makes the second one seem like a lot more of a change than it truly is. Still significant but a little manipulative to get the point across.
nice video.
Using analytics during the regular season makes more sense because it is based on averages, but using it during the playoffs is a bit more iffy.
Great video!
Thanks!
WHAT YEAR IS IT
😂
Rickey Henderson would be proud of this analysis!
Nice to have you back out in front of the curtain!
Thank you! I'm excited to be back!
Agreed!
Ću Sosja😅
The recorder makes this video. Please include more recorder in future videos.
ERA is a primary measure of allowing runs with RISP, since that is when most runs score.
BRING THESE BACK PLZ
I always thought it stood for fuckin idiotic projections
This video is great. Jonathan Sanchez is getting eating by the luck dragon at 1:18, which is basically saying Jonathan Sanchez is an extremely lucky pitcher. This video was made in the offseason right after the Giants won the World Series, and Sanchez went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA. Good season right? Well his LOB% was 79.5%. And now Sanchez is out of baseball. This video pretty much predicted that.
It's important to note that you can't just look at BABIP alone to determine luck. Quality of hit matters too. A pitcher who gets a lot of ground balls can sustain a lower BABIP. A hitter who hits a lot of line drives can sustain a higher BABIP
Independant??? I guess not all sabermetricians can be spelling bee champions too.
These videos are the best intro to sabermetrics I have ever seen
This video is amazing.