The Winton Centre
The Winton Centre
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🕸️ How Misinformation Spreads
From anti-vaxx propaganda to partisan political news and wild covid conspiracies, social media is awash with dodgy, even dangerous (mis)information. Who is pushing this content online, what are they trying to achieve and how can we stop it - without censoring free speech?
David is joined by a panel of info-warriors fighting for a less toxic and more truthful online ecosystem:
- Chloe Colliver is a specialist in disinformation and extremism online. She’s the Head of Digital Policy and Strategy at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.
- Laura Edelson co-leads the Cybersecurity for Democracy project at New York University which tracks the spread of misinformation via paid advertising and partisan news sources on platforms like Facebook.
Will Moy is the CEO of FullFact, the UK’s premier fact-checking charity. They call out politicians, journalists and misinformation going viral online, as well as working with Facebook as an independent fact checker.
Sander van der Linden is professor of Social Psychology at the University of Cambridge, and author of a forthcoming book on the psychology of misinformation, The Truth Vaccine.
They discuss;
3:50 Who is responsible for creating and promoting misinformation on social media?
10:55 What are the incentives driving social media platforms - and why do they often lead to algorithms which amplify misinformation?
18:49 How does FullFact’s partnership with with Facebook work?
25:19 Why is misinformation often so compelling and persuasive?
30:20 How can we distinguish trustworthy from untrustworthy communications?
36:42 How should fact checking articles be constructed? Should they be boring?
41:05 What kind of regulation could help fix the situation? Should we ban certain kinds of content - or enshrine broad principles in law? How good is forthcoming UK and EU legislation?
***
Views to share? Get in touch on Twitter @RiskyTalkPod
Risky Talk is produced by Ilan Goodman for the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge.
***
David Spiegelhalter is a statistician, author and broadcaster. His book THE ART OF STATISTICS is a worldwide bestseller. He was the Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge for many years, and served a term as the President of the Royal Statistical Society.
🔗🔗 Links🔗🔗
RealRisk: a tool for science communicators 👉👉 realrisk.wintoncentre.uk/​ 👈👈
The Winton Centre's website: 🌐 wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/ 🌐
Risky Talk the podcast with David Spiegelhalter: 🗣️🎙️ riskytalk.libsyn.com/
มุมมอง: 432

วีดีโอ

🦠 Covid By Numbers
มุมมอง 2842 ปีที่แล้ว
Excess deaths, vaccine harms and lockdowns: how should experts communicate about these complex, politically explosive issues? Michael Blastland quizzes statistical duo David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters on what they’ve learnt while writing a weekly column for the Observer. They explore the importance of context and comparison, the trustworthiness of sharing uncertainty and the power of a g...
🗳️Communicating Evidence to Policymakers
มุมมอง 3623 ปีที่แล้ว
🗳️Politicians and civil servants are hungry for data to help design effective policy. How do we best collect and communicate this evidence - to support good governance and public accountability? Joining David to explore interactive dashboards, misinformation and what’s not in the data are: Dr Laura Gilbert Chief Data Analyst at No. 10 Downing St Professor John Aston - former chief scientific ad...
📊Doing Journalism with Data and Numbers
มุมมอง 2553 ปีที่แล้ว
📊Statistics need care and context - but journalists are under pressure to craft engaging stories. Is there a way of doing both? Joining David to explore how you turn data into a clear and compelling story are: Caelainn Barr - Data Projects Editor at The Guardian Tom Chivers - Science Editor at UnHerd and the author of "How To Read Numbers: A Guide to Statistics in the News (and Knowing When to ...
A Guide to Hazard Ratios: What They Are and How To Communicate Them
มุมมอง 54K3 ปีที่แล้ว
Hazard Ratios are frequently used to report the results of research in the medical and social sciences. Professor David Spiegelhalter explains how they're calculated, and how you can turn this specialist statistic into something more meaningful and accessible. David Spiegelhalter is a statistician, author and broadcaster. His book THE ART OF STATISTICS is a worldwide bestseller. He was the Wint...
Relative vs Absolute risks: Why Relative Risks Are Misleading, and How To Communicate Absolute Risks
มุมมอง 33K3 ปีที่แล้ว
We see relative risks is the headlines all the time. "Eating X DOUBLES the risk of Y." But they are often misleading: to understand whether a relative risk is actually worth caring about, you need to know the change in absolute risk. A change from 0.001% to 0.002% is after all, a doubling of risk, but so is a change from 5% to 10%. The first one hardly matters, the second really does! David exp...
🎲Confronting Uncertainty with Tamsin Edwards
มุมมอง 2213 ปีที่แล้ว
🎲 For leading climate scientist Dr Tamsin Edwards, probabilities and possible futures are part of her everyday work. She joins David to explore uncertainty in different aspects of her life: as a statistician and mathematical modeller, as a communicator about possible climate futures, but also as a cancer patient faced with a life-changing decision. Tamsin and David explore: - Why 'all models ar...
📈Stats in the Headlines - Crime, Immigration and Political Polls
มุมมอง 1273 ปีที่แล้ว
📈Stats about crime, immigration, unemployment and political polls fuel political debate and drive headlines. But how are these ‘soft’ numbers really calculated? How uncertain should we be about them? And how can they be reported honestly and usefully - without losing trust? Joining David to make sense of the stats and how to communicate them are: Dr Robert Cuffe Head of Statistics at the BBC Ed...
🙌 Introducing Risky Talk 🙌
มุมมอง 4093 ปีที่แล้ว
Risky Talk features conversations with the world’s top experts in risk and evidence communication addressing urgent, practical challenges: How can doctors communicate the risks and benefits of medical treatment? How should scientists communicate evidence about climate change? How can journalists make numbers meaningful to readers? How should government institutions convey important statistics? ...
🧬 Communicating Genetic Risk
มุมมอง 4233 ปีที่แล้ว
🧬 Personal genetic risk information is set to be become part of everyday healthcare. But is some unhelpful, even dangerous? What psychological impact does it have on patients? And do doctors know enough about genetics to effectively guide patients and inform treatment decisions? Joining David to discussing what genetic risks should be communicated and how, we have: Professor Robert Green Direct...
☀️Communicating About Climate Change
มุมมอง 1573 ปีที่แล้ว
☀️ How can we communicate about climate change in the most engaging, informative and even persuasive ways? What are the different audiences we need to reach, and how can we craft effective communications for each of them? Joining David to guide us through the psychology, politics and science of climate change communication we have: Dr Anthony Leiserowitz Director of the Yale Program on Climate ...
😱Communicating In a Crisis
มุมมอง 833 ปีที่แล้ว
😱 Chemical spills, food scares, terrorist attacks and, of course, pandemics: How can we help manage and reduce the impact of these frightening events with good communication - even while evidence is scant and uncertainty predominates? Joining David to share their experience from the frontlines are: Professor Brooke Rogers OBE - Behavioural scientist at KCL, and SAGE participant advising the UK ...
💉Communicating About Vaccines
มุมมอง 2643 ปีที่แล้ว
💉 Communicating about vaccines has never been higher stakes. How do we do it well? Joining David to explore the importance of scientific rigour, listening and building relationships are: Professor Heidi Larson - Director of the Vaccine Confidence Project and the author of 'Stuck: How Vaccine Rumours Start - and Why They Don’t Go Away'. Professor Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Gr...
A Guide To Odds Ratios: What They Are and How To Communicate Them Clearly
มุมมอง 54K3 ปีที่แล้ว
Despite being rather counter-intuitive Odds Ratios are frequently used to report the results of research in the medical and social sciences. Professor David Spiegelhalter explains how they're calculated, and how to turn them into something more meaningful for effective communication. 🔗🔗 Links🔗🔗 RealRisk: a tool for science communicators 👉👉 realrisk.wintoncentre.uk The Winton Centre's website: 🌐...
Correlation vs Causation: A Brief Guide To Communicating Research
มุมมอง 28K3 ปีที่แล้ว
Using causal language when reporting research that only provides evidence of a correlation is one of the most common errors in science reporting. Professor David Spiegelhalter explains why correlation is not the same as causation - and what language you can use to clearly and accurately communicate observational vs experimental research. David Spiegelhalter is a statistician, author and broadca...
Why Research Results are 'Adjusted' for Confounding Factors - and How To Communicate About It
มุมมอง 17K3 ปีที่แล้ว
Why Research Results are 'Adjusted' for Confounding Factors - and How To Communicate About It
Individual vs Population Risk: How to Communicate Risks for Individuals Making Decisions
มุมมอง 4.8K3 ปีที่แล้ว
Individual vs Population Risk: How to Communicate Risks for Individuals Making Decisions
How To Use RealRisk To Communicate Research
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ความคิดเห็น

  • @SN-cb9xj
    @SN-cb9xj 15 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    Excellent work.

  • @saintwithatie
    @saintwithatie 26 วันที่ผ่านมา

    04:00 "You cannot claim a causal relationship." Ohoho! A LOT of people who use adjusted epidemiology to make causal claims are NOT going to like this!

  • @Anikanoteven
    @Anikanoteven หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you for the clarity you bring to these terms.

  • @dsavkay
    @dsavkay 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great video

  • @GodwillhandleIT
    @GodwillhandleIT 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you! I appreciate you going over this.

  • @subhiksha4411
    @subhiksha4411 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you so much Mr. David. This one helped a lot to comprehend the difference and the importance of communicating the same in a specified manner. Really helpful 🙏

  • @TheStreamUrchin1
    @TheStreamUrchin1 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I binge watched about ten of these

  • @TheStreamUrchin1
    @TheStreamUrchin1 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    this is so clear, thanks from a yank

  • @zainabmohammed2810
    @zainabmohammed2810 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Can you ple explain and compare the RR and OR together, I actually can differentiate between them in meaning 😢.

  • @flori2611
    @flori2611 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I loved it !

  • @babywailung6621
    @babywailung6621 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Helpful...thankyou

  • @CraszyAsce
    @CraszyAsce 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Isn't there an imbalance between the two groups since there are only 200ish in the depressed group and nearly 2500 in the non-depressed group? Is this why the odds ratio in the actual paper is adjusted?

  • @CraszyAsce
    @CraszyAsce 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    From the way this guy talks I trust him as a teacher

  • @hudsville
    @hudsville 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Such a great explanation, reminds me of my 1st year uni Maths teacher - wonderful. thanks Prof.

  • @bigol7169
    @bigol7169 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

    2:03 "18% of WHAT?" 2:50 "expected frequencies: what it means for 100 people" (absolute risk, AR). This is the perfect video! Thankyou!

  • @udaykumarbr1231
    @udaykumarbr1231 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you❤❤

  • @keppela1
    @keppela1 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Unless I'm not understanding this correctly, one fewer death per 100 in a country the size of the US would amount to 3 million fewer deaths over 10 years. That seems pretty significant to me.

  • @MrAkshay8opeth
    @MrAkshay8opeth 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Brilliant explanation.

  • @arinarakhteenko579
    @arinarakhteenko579 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you very much for clear and awesome videos

  • @senditall152
    @senditall152 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    That is good to know.

  • @senditall152
    @senditall152 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This explanation is by far the best. (if you ask me) Thank you!

  • @kowtharhassan882
    @kowtharhassan882 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    You solidify my belief in the published stats that it is all misleading and bonkers

  • @thisiswhereIwritemyhandle
    @thisiswhereIwritemyhandle 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you for this channel!

  • @anthonysilva5312
    @anthonysilva5312 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Nice. Subscribed

  • @Rasha.Ishtar
    @Rasha.Ishtar 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Is Absolute risk the same as Attributable risk? In the First Aid textbook for the USMLE step one exam they only mentioned Attributable risk and Absolute risk reduction but there is no Absolute risk, thank you

  • @invaderhorizongreen8168
    @invaderhorizongreen8168 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Some breast cancers would still have happened despite HRT as some are entirely hormone negative.

  • @swatts0813
    @swatts0813 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great examples!

  • @menakamanickaraj
    @menakamanickaraj 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

  • @enriquecorona3184
    @enriquecorona3184 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thanks for the explanation of OR.. that paper on depression.. according to the authors who tried to associate use of cannabis to depression.. what if those who use cannabis where already depressed..?

  • @walidsarwary
    @walidsarwary ปีที่แล้ว

    Results Individuals with ADHD had an increased risk for dementia and MCI. After adjusting for sex and birth year, a hazard ratio (HR) was 2.92 (95% confidence interval 2.40-3.57) for dementia, Can sombody please explain that to me In a very simple words since my English is not good please

    • @invaderhorizongreen8168
      @invaderhorizongreen8168 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      that study involved 3,591,689 people of those people who not only had dementia bout 9K also had ADHD HOWEVER that is about only 1 /500TH approximately of the study group who had both conditions. The majority did have dementia BUT DID NOT have ADHD. 0.3% of all the people had ADHD however ONLY 1.5% developed dementia out of that group that means around 98-99% did not give or take. 55,094 (1.5) 100 (1.0) first number is the the ones with dementia and without ADHD the second with. This is out of about 3.5 MILLION people. This hardly proves having the disorder will make you get dementia, given that those without it got it far more cases overall

  • @kristageorge5811
    @kristageorge5811 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank you so much! This helped a lot!

  • @nishu761
    @nishu761 ปีที่แล้ว

    Taking sensationalism out of applied statistics is an important job for the wellbeing of the society at large. Sir David Spiegelhalter does it so well. Respect. P.S - You're the reason I became a statistician. Love from India.

  • @Haze_Loto
    @Haze_Loto ปีที่แล้ว

    I have been finding papers where they use first the word impact and then the word related like if it were synonyms. It's confusing to read it.

  • @nikkirica4410
    @nikkirica4410 ปีที่แล้ว

    Excellent. Thank you so much <3

  • @tomgreen589
    @tomgreen589 ปีที่แล้ว

    This was so nicely explained! you could sense the wisdom of the man from the way he was teaching.

  • @bradeymenz539
    @bradeymenz539 ปีที่แล้ว

    Excellent discussion, many thanks to you all

  • @saagarrprasad
    @saagarrprasad ปีที่แล้ว

    This is perhaps the best explanation on Hazard Ratio out there !

  • @SidneyRanger1138
    @SidneyRanger1138 ปีที่แล้ว

    Thank you so much. This was immensely helpful.

  • @wiltonpt1
    @wiltonpt1 ปีที่แล้ว

    and I am off to my vigie sandwich because if one study said what it said, 800 studies complied by the WHO not too long ago, nailed this question forever. The more red meeet people eat, the more cancer...the risk is even higher for those consuming curated canned meats. Math and good common sense sometimes remind me of Einsteins' famous quote: "As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality."

  • @keppela1
    @keppela1 ปีที่แล้ว

    Great video, thanks! The RealRisk link you provide in your notes no longer works. Could you update it? Or did you discontinue the tool?

    • @TheWintonCentre
      @TheWintonCentre ปีที่แล้ว

      Odd - should be fixed now!? The backslash seemed to be throwing it off...

  • @daohoaxichbich704
    @daohoaxichbich704 ปีที่แล้ว

    This video is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're gonna get

  • @aryanstanley3529
    @aryanstanley3529 ปีที่แล้ว

    Excellent video and explanation - thank you very much

  • @nikkihuang7635
    @nikkihuang7635 ปีที่แล้ว

    Fantastic video and examples, thank you!

  • @NoLabCoatRequired
    @NoLabCoatRequired ปีที่แล้ว

    incredible. this guy and the folks behind it.

  • @skykingimagery899
    @skykingimagery899 ปีที่แล้ว

    Hazard ratios are totally misleading. It all depends on your y axis. Increase your y axis by 3 times and watch the lines converge. So it is another example of relative vs absolute risk. Relative risk is used by everyone to sell you the results.

  • @kowtharhassan882
    @kowtharhassan882 ปีที่แล้ว

    So how is this different frm risk ratio?

  • @fromthekitchenofhafsa
    @fromthekitchenofhafsa ปีที่แล้ว

    Can someone help me out please? When he calculated the RR, for the depressed group, how did the % become 15, when for the non depressed it was 5% if using the formula of RR?

    • @TheWintonCentre
      @TheWintonCentre ปีที่แล้ว

      34 / (34+187) = 0.15 = 15% and 132 / (132+2366) = 0.05 = 5% and 15% / 5% = RR of 3

  • @dfor50
    @dfor50 ปีที่แล้ว

    Great. Now I understand.

  • @Pickett1312
    @Pickett1312 ปีที่แล้ว

    🙌🏼

  • @Julie-rc7wl
    @Julie-rc7wl ปีที่แล้ว

    Well done! Thank you!