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Hi Daniel - this is an excerpt from a recent note talking about the 10-year yield, the US Dollar and the S&P 500. Please let me know if you find it helpful: It’s not a coincidence that lower rates and a weaker dollar last week both helped equity markets extend the collective bounce. And it’s not a huge revelation to say that if both the 10-year yield and the USD have peaked, equity markets would have a good chance of continuing to rally. The SPX’s best runs over the last two years have happened when both the dollar and rates have declined from peaks. 2024 had played out very differently through March given that the SPX was rallying along with rising rates and the advancing dollar. As both of them spiked in April, though, risky assets finally got infected. The obvious question now is whether the dips in both the 10-year and USD are going to grow more severe. This wouldn’t be a huge surprise, as both have been trending higher for four months: a respite would be a logical next step for the 10-Year Yield and the US Dollar. And if that happens, the S&P 500 and risky assets overall should benefit..

@@cappthesis Thanks for your reply Capp, honestly I was not expecting it. Thanks for providing the excerpt, it really helps a lot because there are people that have a bearish bias.

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You're very welcome.

Thanks, Louis! 👊

Thanks a lot, Seth!

Thanks a lot, Louis!

Appreciate it, Larry.

Great point. That could definitely come into play, however, I tend to trust patterns that take place in line with the prevailing trend (up) until proven otherwise.

@@cappthesis even while the RSI is diverging down?

Thanks a lot, Louis. Appreciate you taking the time to watch it and comment.

Thanks a lot, Roy! 👊

You're welcome. While I do not use Elliott Wave, many traders find it very useful. It's worth looking into further if you're interested.

You're welcome and thanks a lot for commenting. The risk now shifts to being TOO good!

Thank you very much. I'm happy you find it helpful.

You're very welcome, thank you for your feedback. I appreciate it.

Thanks a lot, Tony. Agreed - slow grinds can be boring day-to-day, but over months, they can lead to strong moves.

Well said. I just finished a new video and touched on a few potential pullback scenarios. It will be out around 11:45.

Thanks a lot for your feedback, Louis.

Thanks a lot, Seth!

That’s a very good question. I view gaps as air pockets of light support (or resistance if they exist above). Not all gaps need to be filled, but if the SPX begins to sell off, any gap that it hits could accelerate the move. A major reason is because it’s an obvious spot for a stop loss. When those stop loss orders get triggered, momentum tends to accelerate.

@@cappthesis last question. Thank you. If not all gaps need to be filled, why looking back, does it seem that 95% are?

@@RR-dj2pk I agree that most gaps are filled. That's because the market doesn't typically go straight up or straight down for an extended period of time. Even in uptrends, it will oscillate between short-term extremes on its way to making higher lows and higher highs. So, I would say treat each situation in isolation while keeping an eye on the next pullback now. Thx again for your questions. Appreciate your feedback.

Thanks, Jay!

Very welcome. Thank you for your feedback.

Thanks a lot, Tony. I appreciate your feedback.

Thank you very much.

Thanks a lot! Really good points, too. Next week will be important.