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The Riff with Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg
United States
เข้าร่วมเมื่อ 6 มี.ค. 2023
Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets - and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future.
The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network.
The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network.
Futarchy, Elon, and Gut Decisions in Business
This week, Erik and Byrne discuss the impact of technological change on markets, debate the feasibility of Argentine-style economic policies in the U.S., discuss government efficiency, payroll costs, and political dynamics, including the potential economic effects of a Trump administration and strategies of figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman. For full shownotes, visit: highlightai.com/share/da0b923d-7d50-4459-b8e9-d0bf87710da7
📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
---
SPONSORS:
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: incogni.com/econ102
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
ByrneHobart (Byrne)
TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Introduction to The Riff
(00:20) Discussion on U.S. adopting Argentine policies
(00:40) Payroll costs and government efficiency
(01:10) Byrne's perspective on government payrolls
(01:50) Inflation vs. deflation concerns
(02:30) Political discourse and budget deficit
(03:20) Economic impact of defense spending
(04:00) Compliance departments and economic efficiency
(04:50) Government spending inefficiencies
(05:20) Political realities and voter demographics
(06:00) Elon Musk's strategic challenges
(06:50) Trump administration's potential economic impact
(07:30) Political alliances and their longevity
(08:10) Elon Musk and Sam Altman's dynamics
(09:00) OpenAI's negotiations and strategic decisions
(10:00) Potential Tesla and OpenAI merger
(11:00) WorldCoin and universal basic income
(12:00) Competitive landscape of AI development
(00:13:00) OpenAI's financial challenges and future
(14:00) Strategic decision-making in tech
(15:00) Influence of gut decisions in business
(16:00) Media narratives and business biographies
(17:00) Strategic decisions and market context
(18:00) Sponsorship
(20:00) Incognito and data privacy solutions
(21:00) Economic predictions and market dynamics
(22:00) Political bets and their outcomes
(23:00) Investment strategies and market predictions
(24:00) Trump's political and economic strategies
(25:00) Pandemic response and economic policies
(26:00) Vaccine development and government actions
(27:00) Economic policies and their implications
(28:00) Tariffs and trade policies
(29:00) Strategic industries and economic growth
(30:00) Inflationary impacts of tax policies
(31:00) Economic predictions and political strategies
(32:00) Peter Thiel's perspective on tariffs
(33:00) U.S.-China trade relations
(34:00) Political strategies and global influence
(35:00) Economic and political uncertainties
(36:00) Trump's legacy and future political landscape
(37:00) J.D. Vance and future political scenarios
(38:00) Media narratives and public perception
(39:00) Selection effects in media consumption
(40:00) Economic and social selection effects
(41:00) Media consumption and public opinion
(42:00) Economic implications of media strategies
(43:00) Media business models and profitability
(44:00) Prediction markets and decision-making
(45:00) Google's internal prediction markets
(46:00) Organizational strategies and decision-making
(47:00) Economic theories and business strategies
(48:00) Political and economic predictions
(49:00) Conclusion and wrap-up of The Riff
📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
---
SPONSORS:
Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: incogni.com/econ102
📑 Discover Carta, the innovative end-to-end accounting platform revolutionizing private fund management with streamlined operations and on-demand insights. Experience the new standard at carta.com/investors/
---
LINKS:
Byrne’s writing: thediff.co
---
X / TWITTER:
ByrneHobart (Byrne)
TurpentineMedia (Turpentine)
---
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Introduction to The Riff
(00:20) Discussion on U.S. adopting Argentine policies
(00:40) Payroll costs and government efficiency
(01:10) Byrne's perspective on government payrolls
(01:50) Inflation vs. deflation concerns
(02:30) Political discourse and budget deficit
(03:20) Economic impact of defense spending
(04:00) Compliance departments and economic efficiency
(04:50) Government spending inefficiencies
(05:20) Political realities and voter demographics
(06:00) Elon Musk's strategic challenges
(06:50) Trump administration's potential economic impact
(07:30) Political alliances and their longevity
(08:10) Elon Musk and Sam Altman's dynamics
(09:00) OpenAI's negotiations and strategic decisions
(10:00) Potential Tesla and OpenAI merger
(11:00) WorldCoin and universal basic income
(12:00) Competitive landscape of AI development
(00:13:00) OpenAI's financial challenges and future
(14:00) Strategic decision-making in tech
(15:00) Influence of gut decisions in business
(16:00) Media narratives and business biographies
(17:00) Strategic decisions and market context
(18:00) Sponsorship
(20:00) Incognito and data privacy solutions
(21:00) Economic predictions and market dynamics
(22:00) Political bets and their outcomes
(23:00) Investment strategies and market predictions
(24:00) Trump's political and economic strategies
(25:00) Pandemic response and economic policies
(26:00) Vaccine development and government actions
(27:00) Economic policies and their implications
(28:00) Tariffs and trade policies
(29:00) Strategic industries and economic growth
(30:00) Inflationary impacts of tax policies
(31:00) Economic predictions and political strategies
(32:00) Peter Thiel's perspective on tariffs
(33:00) U.S.-China trade relations
(34:00) Political strategies and global influence
(35:00) Economic and political uncertainties
(36:00) Trump's legacy and future political landscape
(37:00) J.D. Vance and future political scenarios
(38:00) Media narratives and public perception
(39:00) Selection effects in media consumption
(40:00) Economic and social selection effects
(41:00) Media consumption and public opinion
(42:00) Economic implications of media strategies
(43:00) Media business models and profitability
(44:00) Prediction markets and decision-making
(45:00) Google's internal prediction markets
(46:00) Organizational strategies and decision-making
(47:00) Economic theories and business strategies
(48:00) Political and economic predictions
(49:00) Conclusion and wrap-up of The Riff
มุมมอง: 182
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I don't understand the need to build AI system for corporations to prevent individuals from using AI to game the AI systems used by corporations. Why stack so much against the individual?
Great conversation, thanks! My suspicious is that Boomer capital is driving quality down in many businesses, especially big established brands like Forbes. Be prepared to see a lot of turbulence in the coming decade as Boomer capital exits and a lot of these zombified companies go bust.
erik is looking extra relaxed in this episode
excellent
Can we start paying politicians $5m/yr so that we can get some people like Byrne in positions of power and legislation.
Curious about Byrne’s take on what is going on in Japan right now
Nice, no Erik
Thanks!
Really sharp pod. Keep them coming!
The party analogy is mind blowing. Really appreciate your fresh perspectives on the topics covered.
Threads is like a sanitized version of a Las Vegas pool party. And NO ONE wants that 😂
He references populist presidents and how they tend to govern. Andrew Jackson was considered a populist president. Are there any others besides Donald Trump?
Did you know that optimizing your tags can greatly improve your reach? If you’re looking to grow your channel faster, I'd be happy to offer a SEO audit for your videos.
43:09 in terms of security, the NSA has the worlds best offensive capabilities. Large US tech companies generally have the better defensive ones. But it’s definitely an open question how seriously the current set of AI startups take their responsibilities there. That being said, nationalizing the labs is just conceding defeat. Why would any competent researcher stay instead of going to some other private company where they can make a competitive wage and own some of the upside from their work?
Renaissance Technologies apparently has excellent defensive capability. But, I've always suspected that they have a connection with the US intel apparatus. If the national lab is where AGI will happen, some of the best people will go there regardless of financial considerations. The best people mostly understand what achieving AGI means. Its meaning goes far beyond forgoing five years of income. By the way, the subset of the best people who forgo that opportunity will do so for reasons other than the narrow-minded "make as much money as possible!" motivations. They will perceive AGI as the apocalypse and will work to prevent it from manifesting anywhere in the world.
@@kreek22 in a vacuum, yes, the best people will go where the highest concentration of talent/resources to achieve the goal are. But even without the motivating factor of money (and I think your underestimating the lure of generational wealth) the kind of people who are truly the best aren’t going to want to work in a government lab. Why would they want to deal with bureaucracy instead of focusing on the work?
Erik, with all due respect, please, breath and slow down when you speak. You're a smart guy and have smart guests, I like to hear the takes, but it's frankly frustrating listen to you trip up over every sentence. It's not taking the listener into account. For someone who's trying to do so much spoken media, you could increase the quality of your speaking to level up all your podcasts.
Much better audio quality. Thanks, Byrne.
Byrne, I like all your videos. I think you could have a pretty large audience, but you should look into getting a better microphone. I can't think of any popular podcast that doesn't have great audio quality.
Byrne's take on AI education is spot on. Interest and IQ are the bottleneck in math education and AI tutoring is not going to solve this.
Which podcast does he say at 39:18?
Dwarkesh Podcast th-cam.com/video/bc6uFV9CJGg/w-d-xo.html
Good episode. Potato bit was interesting. Tiger was in that?!?
Here's to all the outliers. We don't matter. 🎉
Loving this podcast network🎉
This was interesting but I wish the title question was explored more. My answer to the question is that you should focus on a single niche, conquer it, and then slowly expand. Don’t try to build an empire at once.
Listening to this now. Very relevant to my current work. Thanks guys.
You experience difficulties with organic channel monetization, organic views, and revenue because of this. These are the problems I discovered: Your videos do not have a title, description, video tag, channel tag, or video SEO applied to them. Your TH-cam channel is not expanding for this reason. If you completely tailor your channel, there's a chance the video can become viral
Jesus effin' Christ. How many podcasts does this person have? Moment of Zen Upstream Econ 102 Live Players The Riff
💐 P R O M O S M
The spliff. Two complementary personalities.
Great talk.
I look back to Erik’s April 2021 thread a lot
Link?
Got here from the long read on substack and I have to say the deepness of analysis and the quality and amount of material. Everytime. Keep up the good work, good analysis is actually hard to find
Much appreciated!
ba da ba ba ba
Thomas is great. I love Daloopa.
Hey you guys I know Tom too! Daloopa is super cool.
EA is an attempt at the highest good in this day and age when religion is less prominent. See Pageau talk at ARC. Modernity is receding, to reveal spiritual things! (Paul Vanderklay)
First. Ty sirs
Our analysis of the OpenAI / Sam Altman drama. Timestamps below. Check out our sponsor: - Need Soc 2 compliance? Get 20% off your first year of Secureframe by mentioning "The Riff" during your free demo: secureframe.com/riff TIMESTAMPS: (00:30) Non obvious thoughts about governance and legal structures (03:30) Could the board have found out something about Sam? (04:40) Tech’s online coordination and choosing sides (06:00) Why haven’t the OpenAI board shared their reasoning? (12:00) Are they going to bring Sam back? (15:00) What should OpenAI’s pivot be? (17:15) Sponsor: Secureframe (18:20) Analyzing Microsoft's moves and the sweetheart deal (21:40) Satya's succession plans (24:45) OpenAI's unique governance structure (27:50) Why Byrne is long on Microsoft (35:40) What explains Microsoft's turnaround? (37:55) Meta and Google (44:00) Which of these companies Byrne would short: Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft (46:00) Was this a coup from the Effective Altruism movement?
The Turpentine revolution continues! Good stuff @Erik
First to the party! Huge fan Erik, I’m sure this will be another great one! I had my YT algo recommend MoZ episode 1 and have seen nearly every episode Turpentine has put out. If you ever want to do something with your network fans, count me in as an anchor tenant!