⚠ TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN
NOVEMBER 13, 2024 - 4PM
TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (pre-#PepitoPH)
LOCATION: 1920km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
MEAN SURFACE WINDSPEED (km/hr): 72.8 : MINIMAL STORM
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (mb): 1000.4
RAINRATE ESTIMATE (mm/min): 2.04 : TORRENTIAL
SPEED, DIRECTION (km/hr): 23.2 : WSW to W
CENTRAL TEMP (°C): 13.80 : SHEARED
CLOUD TEMP (°C): -85.43 : Very coldtops with hot towers
SEA SURFACE TEMP. (°C): 29.5 : very warm
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (kJ/cm^-2): 105.6 : 80m deep : Average OHC is high to very high value
WINDSHEAR (km/hr): 16.7 : NNE : Favourable
AVER. CHANGES (km/3hrs): 1.5 : Gradual Intensification
SCENE TYPE: Sheared but improving convective signature
EYEWALL RADIUS: 0km
STEERING INFLUENCE: Subtropical Ridge (STR) over NW to N
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT: very favourable.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT: Favourable due to weak radial outflow and decreasing windshear.
NEXT 24HRS: Maximum intensity will be 85km/hr or higher.*
DISCUSSION:
TS Man-Yi weakens a bit while transversing to a more equatorward track. Latest satellite animation reveals a partially exposed LLCC as vertical windshear continues along the track but this shear somehow weakens a bit allowing some convective signature to persist along the SE and S quadrant of LLCC while dry air still notably present on NW quadrant based on water vapor imagery. It is currently under the steering influence of STR over NW to N. This STR is expected to be a dominant steering influence for the rest of its forecast track while gradual to possible rapid intensification is likely within the period of 24-72hrs as it track to highly favourable environment led by warmer SST with very deep and very high OHC value while vertical windshear will be lower.*
COASTAL WATERS:
Coastal waters over Northern and Eastern seaboard of Luzon will be moderate to very rough and will be dangerous to all type of seacraft.*
*Subject to changes
#NikaPH, #OfelPH, pre-#PepitoPH, #Toraji, #Man-Yi, #Usagi, #MJO, #PhilippinesWeatherForecast, #MetromanilaWeather, #LuzonWeather, #VisayasWeather, #MindanaoWeather