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You're welcome!

Good question! - I've been expecting Minor 4th wave corrections to begin soon. Putting an exact date on it isn't possible --

@siemensohm - I wouldn't go with you counts are wrong and I do see exactly what you are saying. A sharp decline could come in the form of 2nd or 4th wave -- and what I'm looking for at this juncture in both the NQ and ES are Minor 4th waves - (Minor 4 of Intermediate 3) - the markets are extremely overbought with both NVDA and AAPL now seeing overbought levels seen in 2021. I'm not looking for a "crash" as many may believe -- I'm looking for 4th wave corrections -- those correction will appear large primarily due to the intensity of the rallies and the extreme extensions that just don't seem to stop -- a blow off top now is likely to be followed later by another blow off top -- the entire process has taken years to play out. I don't know your style of trading, but I was an Options Market Maker for many years and turned to day trading in 2013. That affords me a lot in terms of each day I start with a "clean slate" so to speak since I don't carry positions overnight and I can play both sides (most of the time successfully).

@jpvanessche3185 - no I don't follow or track sector rotation anymore -- I have in the past -- but I only trade futures and some options - and I don't trade for anybody other than myself --

We shall see! -- I agree with the scenario as well --

@gerryhalmagyi8363 - You're welcome - and thank you!

@fxundercurrent - How childish of you -- also judgmental - without knowing how much time I do trade nor the amount I make you chose to make an attempt at insulting me.

You're welcome

You're very welcome! I'm glad you are able to use the information.

Yes, I do understand what you are feeling -- but technically, the markets continued to argue for additional upside and the primary reason as we found out is NVDA's earnings - and the company announcing 10 for 1 stock split on June 7th -- which adds an additional boost to push the stock higher. Reality will eventually take over, but unfortunately that may take until the FED makes its next move, (hike or cut).

@jpvanessche3185 - tough question -but the picture suggests the markets complete Intermediate 3rd waves up - which should yield to a larger more sustained 4th wave corrections -- however, that then should be followed by another (finishing) Intermediate 5th waves up -- and they would be expected to reach new ATH's again --

You're welcome

@jpvanessche3185 - I can try -- I'll start by saying I don't see the market climbing a wall of worry - The current earnings reports for the large caps haven't been the end of the world -- it has however, pulled some big names down out the "high zones" as capital shifts around as it always does post earnings. Money managers in order to keep with the "flavor of the ??" shift capital to reflect a more positive picture back to their clients. This has been happening for as long as I've been in the market -- except that in the 21st century it is likely 100% controlled by algorithms. I've trading and analyzing the markets for 45 years - the larger stronger changes have been in place I would say for the last 5 to 10 years -- but in 2024 and moving forward - AI is here and isn't going to end. The other "huge" change in my view are ODTE options and the increase from monthly options expirations to daily options expirations. That has changed volatility, gamma, and theta. The VIX no longer measures the "fear or complacency" Options flows have a much bigger part to play in market movements as do daily options expirations. Unemployment coming higher this morning isn't a bad thing -- it isn't adding to inflation - so goes the thought. Bad economic news that just seems to stack up along with the markets move higher is more typical during finishing moves -- and the larger the finish the higher the markets seem to go. I'm not sure what you trade or "how" your trade - i.e. the long term position, swing trader, day trader. But no matter which it is highly recommended to forget the "writing on the wall" and follow the money for now. Try not to be "bullish or bearish" -- just trade -- have a set of trade rules or trade plan. Have a methodology of how to measure the move - as to finishing, being in the middle, or just beginning. I do use Elliott wave but there are times where the longer term (Big Picture) gets side tracked or extended or just range bound - without a particular bias - this is where I use Elliott's descriptions of wave personalities/characterizations to help me gage what's coming. I also use cycles to help me remain focused on the move that is happing rather than the move that isn't happening. So, I'm not waiting for the market crash nor am I waiting for the S&P to hit 6000 or the DJIA 45,000 - I don't care why they are buying or selling -- I'm a trader - that is/has been my profession for many years -- I've done well and I've also taken plenty of "hits" big - really big and small. I actually do attempt to steer away from using bullish and bearish with regard to my opinion. There really is much more to say and add -- it is an ongoing conversation.

Yes, I can understand that -- try moving down to a 15 minute chart -- the whole move didn't take that long with the C wave happening quickly and nearly all within the candle before the one labeled "2" --

Cheers

You're welcome

Thank you and You're welcome!

@Oscar-om4hq - It is difficult to pinpoint - in the past I have noticed that the moves in the USD/JPY had a "pull" or "push" on the equities markets - but that hasn't been noticed that much lately -- while I do believe the USD/$DXY does have a play in the movement of equities, treasuries, and precious metals - but it isn't as noticeable or followed as it has been in the past.

If you are referring to the pattern off of the ATH @ 18709 - the pattern is still a series of 3 wave patterns but the end result is a leading diagonal triangle producing wave 1.

Thanks for sharing!

That would depend on which count actually follows through and produces the expected pattern. Since I am currently still giving a 50/50 probability to the two counts I'm working side by side - you can say that if MSFT and GOOGL both blow the doors off with their earnings report then a quick rebound would be in line -- should MSFT and GOOGL not please the market either with the earnings or with forward guidance - then a quick decline would be in line --

Thanks 👍