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UWA Complex Systems Seminars
เข้าร่วมเมื่อ 25 พ.ค. 2020
This is the channel for the virtual Complex Systems Seminars of University of Western Australia.
Michael Small - Artificial intelligence and authentic insight
What does it mean for an artificial intelligence (AI) to think? Will AIs ever be sentient? How would we even know, when they have been trained to fake it so well? Large language models and other generative AI systems are usually described as predicting the next token in a sequence --- forecasting the most likely next word. However, they actually do a bit more than this. A combination of clever high-dimensional embedding of the tokens and simultaneous prediction at points throughout the token sequence gives an effective illusion of relevance and coherence. Such systems are still prone to fabrications and, as a consequence, are often claimed to be ``creative.'' Nonetheless, they fail to grasp basic logic. These systems can perform computation, but when they do so, it is extremely expensive and prone to error.
How can we build systems to perform logical deductive reasoning? How would we test their performance? I will argue that the ability to ``do mathematics'' (but not simply reproducing versions of known problems, perhaps with substitutions) is such a test. The efforts to apply machine learning to mathematics are a testament to that progress. I will review the current state-of-the-art of application of AI to mathematics and challenge what it means ``to think'' and to ``do mathematics.'' I do not believe that AI can ever achieve sentience --- without a fundamental change in the hardware.
How can we build systems to perform logical deductive reasoning? How would we test their performance? I will argue that the ability to ``do mathematics'' (but not simply reproducing versions of known problems, perhaps with substitutions) is such a test. The efforts to apply machine learning to mathematics are a testament to that progress. I will review the current state-of-the-art of application of AI to mathematics and challenge what it means ``to think'' and to ``do mathematics.'' I do not believe that AI can ever achieve sentience --- without a fundamental change in the hardware.
มุมมอง: 14
วีดีโอ
Andrew Page - Can data science treat clinical psychology?
มุมมอง 62 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา
Andrew Page - Can data science treat clinical psychology?
Renteria - Aural Foraging: Browsing Large Sound Archives With Determinantal Point Processes
มุมมอง 20หลายเดือนก่อน
A key challenge in automated audio analysis is exploring and summarising large collections with none or sparse high-temporal resolution annotations. Without a definitive taxonomy for all possible sounds and varying categories across disciplines, verbal descriptors of sound events limit the use of algorithmic indices (or features). Both browsing and generative systems for audio would benefit fro...
Nicholas Franz - Exploring Agent Dynamics
มุมมอง 262 หลายเดือนก่อน
This thesis explores the integration of the Couzin agent-based model, known for its ability to generate organised group behaviours such as milling, with Hamilton's selfish herd model, which posits that individuals act to minimise personal predation risk. Using a game-theoretic framework, agents are allowed to dynamically switch between these two models based on their alignment with the ideal be...
Lucas Kailis - Design of Echo State Networks for Time Series Analysis
มุมมอง 632 หลายเดือนก่อน
Echo state networks (ESN) are a class of neural network employed in machine learning. In 2020 they were proven to produce a topologically equivalent embedding of time series inputs. This has motivated their use for unsupervised time series analysis tasks. We investigate the impacts of different ESN hyper-parameter setups on performance in time series analysis. Current implementations of these t...
Jason Lu - Recovering Palaeoclimate Dynamics from Geological Data
มุมมอง 312 หลายเดือนก่อน
Speleothems are used in palaeoclimatology as records of historical climate dynamics. We study trace element concentration time series from a speleothem collected from the Cape Range Peninsula, covering a timespan of 20-15ka (thousand years ago). We draw three conclusions from the dataset. First, we identify regime changes and use predictive models to reveal a similarity between the regimes cove...
Eugene Tan - Statistical modelling of malaria interventions and attrition in Africa
มุมมอง 293 หลายเดือนก่อน
Since 2000, insecticide treated nets (ITNs) have been established as one of the most widespread and impactful malaria interventions. Some characteristics that are of particular interest is the measure of the relative impacts of ITNs, their attrition dynamics and inventory volume within particular geolocations. These measures are of particular interest as they are valuable for informing official...
Samson Ting - Bayesian Inference for Gap Acceptance Model
มุมมอง 223 หลายเดือนก่อน
The gap acceptance framework is the theoretical basis for modelling traffic flow at intersections with a priority control. Reliable estimation methods for key gap acceptance parameters such as the critical gap defined as the smallest gap a yielding vehicle will accept, are important to more accurately predict key traffic performance measures such as capacity and average delay. As the title sugg...
Zahra Shahriari - Modelling Ordinal First Return Maps
มุมมอง 334 หลายเดือนก่อน
We examine the family of ordinal first return maps of a dynamical system time series to model the system's dynamics. We consider two distinct modelling approaches using the same modelling method and compare their outcomes to ascertain the prerequisites for each to function and which approach is more effective in any given circumstance. The first approach involves short-term modelling of the ent...
Michael Small - Minimum Description Length (part 2)
มุมมอง 224 หลายเดือนก่อน
Before statisticians rediscovered LASSO, before "overfitting" was a tired trope for CTOs to appear to be knowledgeable about what their data science teams were doing, there was Minimum Description Length (MDL). MDL is a model selection criteria - it posits than when choosing from a variety of models the model that offers the shortest description of the data is the best model of that data. The p...
Michael Small - Minimum Description Length (part 1)
มุมมอง 644 หลายเดือนก่อน
Before statisticians rediscovered LASSO, before "overfitting" was a tired trope for CTOs to appear to be knowledgeable about what their data science teams were doing, there was Minimum Description Length (MDL). MDL is a model selection criteria - it posits than when choosing from a variety of models the model that offers the shortest description of the data is the best model of that data. The p...
Tom Lymburn - Challenges in optimising large scale traffic simulation models
มุมมอง 267 หลายเดือนก่อน
In order to monitor and predict complex phenomena, such as traffic on a large region of road network, operators often use theory-driven simulation models, which have the advantage of extensibility and interpretability when compared to machine learning methods. However, the optimisation of these models is often restricted to a "black-box" approach, due to high complexity and difficulty in measur...
Eugene Tan - Searching for Timescales
มุมมอง 568 หลายเดือนก่อน
One of the major advances in the field of nonlinear time series analysis was the formalisation of the embedding theorems of Whitney and Takens, applied to dynamical systems theory. In its simplest form, these theorems show that one can reconstruct (up to a diffeomorphism) the multidimensional dynamics of a system using only observed scalar time series. The dominant in which this is achieved is ...
Braden Thorne - Reservoir Time Series Analysis
มุมมอง 888 หลายเดือนก่อน
Reservoir computing (RC) is a machine learning framework designed to utilise a dynamical system as the central processing unit to facilitate efficient computation. Since its inception at the turn of the century the framework has shown impressive results on a range of supervised learning tasks from time series forecasting to classification. Despite a well-developed understanding of how these met...
Fatimah Abdul Razak - Exploring Malaysian Complex Networks: Viruses to Movies
มุมมอง 848 หลายเดือนก่อน
We delve into the applications of Network Analysis on Malaysian datasets, covering a spectrum of topics. These include devising Covid-19 reopening strategies, examining company relationships within Bursa Malaysia, and finding the ‘Kevin Bacon’ of the Malay language film industry.
Ken Bredemeyer - Predicting self-harm among psychiatric inpatients (February 8)
มุมมอง 279 หลายเดือนก่อน
Ken Bredemeyer - Predicting self-harm among psychiatric inpatients (February 8)
Daniel Classen - Statistical Finite Element Modelling for Misspecified SST Simulation and Inversion
มุมมอง 3710 หลายเดือนก่อน
Daniel Classen - Statistical Finite Element Modelling for Misspecified SST Simulation and Inversion
Jason Lu - A Mutual Information-Based Metric for Assessing Partitions of Dynamical Systems
มุมมอง 5210 หลายเดือนก่อน
Jason Lu - A Mutual Information-Based Metric for Assessing Partitions of Dynamical Systems
Time series analysis with machine learning (Michael Small)
มุมมอง 2012 ปีที่แล้ว
Time series analysis with machine learning (Michael Small)
A Qualitative Guide to Chaos (Michael Small)
มุมมอง 2112 ปีที่แล้ว
A Qualitative Guide to Chaos (Michael Small)
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