Intermittent Diversion
Intermittent Diversion
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(The Failure of) The Armchair Theorist
Too often, we spend too much time theorizing from the armchair, making assumptions about how the world works. And when we spend too much time in the comforts of the armchair, we neglect the essential work of observation.
In this short video, we explore the pitfalls of the armchair theorist and how we can best make sense of the world. Many of the ideas explored intersect with the fields of behavioral science, behavioral economics, and decision science. Examples referenced include Isabel Wilkerson's The Warmth of Other Suns, Robert Caro and his biography of Robert Moses, and Michel de Montaigne. The idea for this video was sparked an interview with the decision science legend Herbert Simon entitled 'The Failure of Armchair Economics."
Explore more at belseralex.com
Motion Design + Sound + Script by Alex Belser.
All inquiries: alex@belseralex.com
Freelance work at bels.works/
Instagram: belseralex
มุมมอง: 5 625

วีดีโอ

Rollin' Hills: A Bikepacking Trip
มุมมอง 4.2K3 ปีที่แล้ว
Last year we took an extended weekend bikepacking trip through Wyoming. We started in Casper, WY and in a roundabout way ended up in Lander, WY. Along the way we stopped on Casper Mountain, Atlantic City, South Pass City, Alcova, and Louis Lake. This film chronicles the landscape we explored and and the experiences we shared during that trip. The overall mileage for the trip was around 125 mile...
A (Brief) History of Rationality
มุมมอง 9K3 ปีที่แล้ว
It's easy to assume that the history of decision making has been one steady path towards rationality, but that's just not the case. Even today, our understanding of human behavior and decision making resembles more of a tug-of-war between rationality and irrationality. In today's video, we explore the modern history of rationality in brief. We'll follow our understanding of human behavior from ...
On Fallibility: How to think about being wrong
มุมมอง 3.6K4 ปีที่แล้ว
Fallibility-the tendency to make mistakes or be wrong-is a fundamental fact of the human condition. But we rarely spend time thinking about it. In this video, we explore how we make mistakes and how we can work to accept the necessary fallibility of our existence. Referenced sources include: Atul Gawande (Complications), Montaigne (Essays), Nate Silver (The Signal and The Noise), Samuel Gorovit...
The Decision Making of Harry Truman
มุมมอง 4.9K4 ปีที่แล้ว
Harry Truman was an incredibly decisive president. He is perhaps most known for his decision to use the atomic bomb during WWII. During his presidency, Truman made several far-reaching and difficult decisions, many of which literally meant the difference between life and death for thousands of people. So what made him such an effective decision maker? If you're interested in decision making, su...
The Keynesian Beauty Contest
มุมมอง 22K4 ปีที่แล้ว
The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a game that is used to illustrate how people operate on different levels of reasoning. It was first used by John Maynard Keynes to show how behavior shapes financial markets, but it applies to a broad range of scenarios in our daily lives. If you enjoyed this video, you might be interested in signing up for my email newsletter: belseralex.com/newsletter Subscribe...
Why Should We Study Decision Making?
มุมมอง 3K4 ปีที่แล้ว
This piece started out as part of my fortnightly newsletter. If you're interested in decision making and behavioral economics, you might be curious to sign up for it here: belseralex.com/newsletter We are the sum of our decisions. This is an idea that I think many of us hold to be true, but I think it's one that we tend to lose sight of. In this video I lay out sum thoughts that have been circl...
A Bikepacking First Foray: Lander to Atlantic City, Wyoming
มุมมอง 4295 ปีที่แล้ว
A few of us spent Father's Day weekend on a short bikepacking trip from Lander, Wyoming through Sinks Canyon and into Atlantic City, Wyoming. It was our first attempt at bikepacking, and it was quite enjoyable! Elevation Gain: 5692 feet Total mileage: ~43 miles belseralex.com
The Ryan Holiday Notecard System
มุมมอง 282K5 ปีที่แล้ว
I've been trying out Ryan Holiday's Notecard System for around a year now and it's incredible. It takes a lot of time and effort, but it helps me remember what I read and allows me to reference ideas from all kinds of different books. If you spend any significant amount of time reading or writing, I would highly recommend starting your own notecard system. This video is a little bit different f...
Noise: Fischer Black and the Uncertain World
มุมมอง 4K5 ปีที่แล้ว
Most of us won't be exposed to the work of Fischer Black in our day to day lives. HIs work was in mathematical finance and economics, but her wrote this paper in 1986 that is less about finance than it is about understanding the world. He titled it "Noise" and the ideas it puts forth can teach all of us about how the world works, how we understand it, and the fundamental human experience of not...
The (Ir)rationality of the Dollar Auction
มุมมอง 40K5 ปีที่แล้ว
The Dollar Auction is a simple game devised by economist Martin Shubik in the 1970s. The beauty of the game is it's remarkable ability to illustrate the frequent irrational behaviors that we humans engage in. The Dollar Auction game shows how the rational pursuit of our own self interest can lead us into an escalation trap and make us worse off. Though the game may appear to be silly, we engage...
Welcome to Intermittent Diversion (Channel Trailer)
มุมมอง 6785 ปีที่แล้ว
If you're new to my channel, this short video gives you a lay of the land. The majority of the videos that you find on this channel will fall into one of three buckets: I. Behavioral Economics Videos II. Experience Driven Videos III. Visual Essays and Contemplations If you like what you see, please consider subscribing to keep up to date. You can find more of my work at belseralex.com All scrip...
Exploring Oslo, Norway's Mid-Winter Charm
มุมมอง 9555 ปีที่แล้ว
This winter, my sister and I took a trip to Oslo, Norway. We covered a lot of ground during our week there, visiting the Opera House, the Royal Palace, Damstredet, and the Vigeland Sculpture Park. We went to a plethora of the city's great museums (Astrup Fearnley, Holmenkollen Ski Museum, Akershus Fortress). We even found ourselves sledding in Korketrekkeren. This video is a short recap of our ...
The IKEA Effect: labor, love, and storage boxes
มุมมอง 3.6K5 ปีที่แล้ว
At it’s core, the IKEA effect is the idea that we overvalue things that we create ourselves. This might seem intuitive, but it flies against the grain of traditional economic thought. The underlying mechanisms that allow the IKEA effect to manifest have broad reaching implications for us, as individuals and as leaders. This video explores what the IKEA effect is, why it happens, and how we migh...
The Sunk Cost Fallacy: What is it and why does it happen?
มุมมอง 125K5 ปีที่แล้ว
Much of our decision making is focused on how and where to invest our time, money, and effort. The sunk cost fallacy is one of the more frequent delusions which clouds our judgment. This video explores what sunk costs are, why they happen, and what we might do about them. The message is not quit everything. The message is: ignore sunk costs. Feel better about quitting a book halfway through if ...
Herding Behavior: How following the crowd leads us astray
มุมมอง 139K5 ปีที่แล้ว
Herding Behavior: How following the crowd leads us astray
How "naturals" practice: get your ten x's before bed, then do it again tomorrow.
มุมมอง 7165 ปีที่แล้ว
How "naturals" practice: get your ten x's before bed, then do it again tomorrow.
A Glimpse of Northern Michigan: The Iceman, Leaves, and Lakes
มุมมอง 1706 ปีที่แล้ว
A Glimpse of Northern Michigan: The Iceman, Leaves, and Lakes
The Lens of Rationality: Why Bounded Rationality Matters
มุมมอง 3K6 ปีที่แล้ว
The Lens of Rationality: Why Bounded Rationality Matters
The Ritual: Meaning amidst the Mundane
มุมมอง 7886 ปีที่แล้ว
The Ritual: Meaning amidst the Mundane
I took a trip to Europe...ruminating thoughts ensued
มุมมอง 2466 ปีที่แล้ว
I took a trip to Europe...ruminating thoughts ensued
How the Brazilian government used psychology to market a new currency
มุมมอง 12K6 ปีที่แล้ว
How the Brazilian government used psychology to market a new currency
Kahneman and Tversky: How heuristics impact our judgment
มุมมอง 84K6 ปีที่แล้ว
Kahneman and Tversky: How heuristics impact our judgment
What can Las Vegas teach us about our modern digital world?
มุมมอง 3006 ปีที่แล้ว
What can Las Vegas teach us about our modern digital world?
Econobots don't need nudges, but you do
มุมมอง 6436 ปีที่แล้ว
Econobots don't need nudges, but you do

ความคิดเห็น

  • @bosonquark7842
    @bosonquark7842 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Come on! give us a come back bro! Subbing you now for that

  • @UnknownDude95
    @UnknownDude95 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

    After the CEO of UHC got killed, this video holds a lot of truth

  • @Castro7MC
    @Castro7MC หลายเดือนก่อน

    🔥👑🔥Ty

  • @Castro7MC
    @Castro7MC หลายเดือนก่อน

    😳😲WOW i Did NoT KnoW Ty Sir 😲😳

  • @jackiefranklin5125
    @jackiefranklin5125 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It's eye-opening! This is one of those rare videos that actually goes beyond the subject matter, so you take away more than just knowledge, but real value and humanity as well.

  • @monkeywrench67
    @monkeywrench67 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Like when you see 15 cars in the drive-through line at Starbucks or 30 vehicles waiting in line for gas at Costo. You're going to sit in your car for half an hour for overpriced, crap coffee? Or if you're saving 10 cents a gallon on gas and you get 20 gallons of gas, saving $2 was worth the hour you waited in line?

  • @MothyEmms
    @MothyEmms หลายเดือนก่อน

    damn. im gonna do this immediately

  • @joshuaesquivel5721
    @joshuaesquivel5721 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I feel like uploading them into a digital note taking program, like obsidian or capacities, allows for the linking of similar notes to create something like a neural network of information.

  • @rakisk8r
    @rakisk8r 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you for this!! i've put off creating a C-P book for a long while because stressing at how to know many pages to assign to each area that catches my interest; and then if the pages in the category get filled but i still need more space, then what? Where did you find the great box for your cards please? Many thanks, kari Victoria, BC Canada

  • @ginasmith590
    @ginasmith590 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thank you for this. I never thought of that.

  • @tjd110
    @tjd110 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    great video, most interesting part is that very short words about your google sheet used to organize the notes

  • @jimiwright5115
    @jimiwright5115 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    There is no doubt that the herd mentality is a fundamental part of the most primitive part of the human brain. It was necessary for survival in the precivilization part of our evolution, since survival was at stake, for food, safety , protection from wild animals, and other hostile tribes etc. but like many other things traditions, the behavior lingers on, long after the need for it disappears. The US has become a perfect example of the herd mentality gone mad, where half of the country hates the other half and vice verse. Countries hate other countries as well, and this very well might lead to the extinction of the humans as a species. Today we have enough nukes to kill everyone on the planet, and all of this power is in the hands of a handful of leaders. And we still play Follow the Leader!

    • @ElCaballeroOscuro8
      @ElCaballeroOscuro8 หลายเดือนก่อน

      It should also be noted that being gregarious and being social are different things. The gregarious instinct sometimes goes against a democratic society and this instinct can be manipulated for the benefit of others, preventing us from living in a true society. We are gregarious, not social.

  • @BeyyNaam
    @BeyyNaam 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I will choose the empty restaurant because I like places with less people.

  • @uuuuuu352
    @uuuuuu352 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    If you make wrong choice together with majority, it is not much worse compared to the average. If you make wrong choice together with minority, it is much worse compared to the average. If you don't have any data beforehand, or you are lazy to think, it is safer to go with the majority. If you do have data beforehand, and you can be certain which choice is better, you go with your choice.

  • @shafayetjamil442
    @shafayetjamil442 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    comeback m8

  • @perjantaifiilis9222
    @perjantaifiilis9222 3 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Wonderful example of the Dollar Auction. I hope i pass my course :D

  • @danh5637
    @danh5637 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

    You should read schepers Antinet zettlekasten book. It expands on this mindblowingly so.

  • @InnerProp
    @InnerProp 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What about using something like Trello for the cards. It seems like I would want to capture and record by analog, but retrieve electronically. I could still browse, but electronic search is so powerful I want to leverage it.

  • @RamonHRE
    @RamonHRE 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think Truman really is one of the greatest presidents of all time. Especially considering his circumstances. I'm really struggling if i rank him at 4th or 5th best president. I put Lincoln, Washington and FDR at 1, 2 and 3. But can't decide between Eisenhower and Truman for number 4 and 5. They both have outstanding insight and planning. But considering Eisenhower's military experience, I think he had greater potential. But I think Truman had greater positive influence considering the time he was in.

  • @xyzcbd
    @xyzcbd 4 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This is literally Trump's entire supporter base in a nutshell holy fvck

  • @captainnolan5062
    @captainnolan5062 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The tediousness and time consuming aspects are actually features of the system that help it work (by forcing you to be selective, and lodging the information into your memory) and not defects or drawbacks.

  • @captainnolan5062
    @captainnolan5062 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Your spreadsheet is an attempt to do what you should be doing with index cards and bibliography cards (the two parts of the system that are missing from your box. Interesting that you intuitively stumbled upon the two things that are missing from your system). This guy has some good ideas about building a zettelkasten: th-cam.com/video/ysD-V06Jszs/w-d-xo.html

  • @captainnolan5062
    @captainnolan5062 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    You may think that a digital system is "so much more efficient, but if you haven't used a physical zettelkasten, then you really don't understand what you are missing out on. There are many benefits to making a physical zettelkasten (as opposed to using a digital tool), here are some: Making physical cards forces you to be more selective (you can't just cut and paste everything, cutting and pasting makes you much less selective because it is so easy); creating physical cards slows you down so that you actually think about what you are doing (rather than just cut and pasting endless data digitally without thinking much about the content); studies have proved that the act of physically writing gets things into your memory better than using a keyboard; you create the opportunity for synchronicity and happy accidents while looking through your cards; cards can be shuffled and juxtaposed to create new insights; You can look at more than one card at a time; it doesn't need electricity to work; it won't get deleted from your hard drive (or lost in a computer crash); and many others.

  • @captainnolan5062
    @captainnolan5062 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The Bibliography card is used for two purposes 1) to track sources and 2) the back of the card is used for taking 'reminder notes" while reading, these are the short notes indicating something about the passages you marked as interesting when you were reading the book which you go back to about 2-4 weeks after you have read your book.

  • @tomf9292
    @tomf9292 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I have finally learned to avoid them. Make the decision to move forward not look back…that was huge for me

  • @arwinv9816
    @arwinv9816 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    learned a new thing!

  • @pseudonymman9382
    @pseudonymman9382 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What is the name of the box you are using?..thank you

  • @MrCheeesee
    @MrCheeesee 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Pro tip, digitize them and put them into NotebookLM by Google. You'll thank me later.

  • @Jv9569
    @Jv9569 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It's funny how It's called herd mentality, since the globalists that run this world see us as cattle (they psychologically scatter everyone around as well and divide people into ideological groups). For me, understanding the simple concept of the nature of the flesh (human nature) vs the fruits of walking in the Holy Spirit is what makes me aware of all of this; and I'm just about tired of seeing the negative aspects of human behavior (including mines at times).

  • @skyler4377
    @skyler4377 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Notes if you're assigned to do this in class and you lowkey procrastinated: Heuristics- rules of thumb that allow us to make decisions efficiently, simplifying complex tasks Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky examine how heuristics are useful however but can lead to bias and systematic errors Potential flaws: 1. Representativeness- overestimate the accuracy and likelihood of an event ex. One who is shy, quiet and organized may be believed to be a librarian rather than a farmer 2. Availability- how easily things are retrieved from memory or constructed from imagination ex1. Randomly flipping to a page and guessing that the letter "r" is more likely to show up at the start of a word as opposed to the third because you were able to recall more words that start with R easier ex2. Fearing being robbed after watching a news report about robbery 3. Anchoring- a reference point is given to a subject and estimates rely too heavily on it ex1. 1*2*3*4*5*6*7*8 may lead to a lower estimate than if asked to estimate 8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1 ex2. thinking $6.99 is a better deal than $7

  • @1michelmarques
    @1michelmarques 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Only right-wing jerks used the system lol

  • @qlukva-zhur
    @qlukva-zhur 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    схоже на поняття "диванні експерти". дуже цікава тема ;)

  • @bladethorn
    @bladethorn 7 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Very helpful! I would take a picture of each or get a fire/waterproof box for them. My neighbors lost everything when I was younger and its kept me aware of how vulnerable things can be!

  • @4my4blessings
    @4my4blessings 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

    A zettelkasten with a thematic digital index, brilliant! 😊

    • @imad_jj
      @imad_jj 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I think with Obsidian it make a fantastic job.

  • @stayfree870
    @stayfree870 8 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It opened a can of worms for other countries to use similar reasons.

  • @lucasm4299
    @lucasm4299 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The Notecard system is by Robert Greene, Ryan Holiday is his apprentice!!!!!

  • @waifusarecringeandugly5623
    @waifusarecringeandugly5623 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Damnn this is Pewdiepie

  • @Justwonguy
    @Justwonguy 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Funny how this came out right before Covid.

  • @mp-xs7th
    @mp-xs7th 9 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Collector fallacy *

  • @SanditthikoAkaliko
    @SanditthikoAkaliko 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    3:10

  • @shacrowburningman
    @shacrowburningman 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Wow.

  • @quorthonschuldiner5197
    @quorthonschuldiner5197 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This reminds me of the Germans during the 2nd WW most of the population Antisemitism and the atrocities against the Jews which led to the SHOAH and I have come to the conclusion that Mob Mentality really made a lot of who would otherwise be normal men/women into merciless killers.

  • @CFXCAP
    @CFXCAP 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It’s happening to Nigeria today

  • @jamestrek2570
    @jamestrek2570 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Came here because I just found out mormonism is false been a faithful member for 40 years 😢

  • @Nana-lr5qy
    @Nana-lr5qy 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What a great video 👍 Fascinating topic and amazingly well presented 👍 Thumbs up! 👍

  • @justwatching1980
    @justwatching1980 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    yes but how do you read? seriously. i haven't been able to read in years too distracted watching videos i'd love an app that converts books to youtube videos so every video i watch is another part of the book or a book that texts itself to me so i can read it in bite-sized chunks or i can call a book on the phone and listen to it. or facetime if there were a way where everywhere i turned. every billboard every screen everything i heard or saw was part of the book that i wanted to read then maybe i'd be able to get through them all instead, i just buy them on audible or get them from the library and let them sit in shelves, unread, and waiting.

  • @Undisputed_King
    @Undisputed_King 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    We are just glorified animals at the end of the day.

  • @katwmn17
    @katwmn17 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This is the system I used in college "back in the day" to write papers and study for exams.

  • @papapapist
    @papapapist 10 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Sounds like the investment into ukraine

  • @therandomchannel7377
    @therandomchannel7377 11 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Where did you get that box?