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Right now, around the world, managers and leaders are scratching their heads to try and answer the question “Should we take project A, B, or both?”. The techniques they are using, are woefully inadequate to answer their question because they rely on a skill humans don’t possess: predicting the future!
Estimation as a portfolio and risk management strategy relies on our ability to predict the future. But we don’t have that skill! What can we use instead then?
In this talk, we explore how we can learn from the world of investment (risk management), industrial management (process control), and poker playing (thinking in bets) to create a powerful simulation strategy that will streamline and reassure your portfolio planning team. Unlike humans, simulation can take as many ideas as you can throw at it, and can come up with the most likely winning scenarios quickly, repeatably, and is infinitely adaptable to future surprises.
Why rely on estimation when we can rely on AI, Forecasting, and the near-infinite computing power we have in even the most humble of spreadsheet programs?
Key Learnings
• Basics of simulating portfolio decisions
• Comparing simulation vs estimation for portfolio level decisions
• Examples of simulation use in complex scenario assessment, with N to 1 options for decision • How to effectively support decision making with simulation.
About Vasco:
Vasco Duarte is a leading voice in the agile community, known for his contributions to the development of agile methodologies and practices. He is the co-founder of Agile Finland and the host of Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast, the most popular Agile podcast in the world, which has more than 8 000 000 unique downloads. He is also the author of "NoEstimates: A novel look at how Agile can transform software development, making it both more sustainable, as well as incredibly profitable." Vasco is a keynote speaker at many conferences and events, sharing his knowledge and experience with the agile community. With his passion and expertise in agile, Vasco has made a significant impact on the way software development is done today, helping organizations to become more efficient, flexible, and responsive to changing requirements